How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 16)
Discussion
DeepEnd said:
....
The sides seem close enough on fish 25% plays 35% quota it seems - as well as the principle at least of a LPF with regulatory alignment going forwards being needed to underpin an FTA - that a deal is within sight. The former is a rather modest outcome, and the latter could render any divergence pointless and impotent. I really didn't think this country would get to a point were it is arguing furiously about the possibility of increasing 0.12% of its GDP by a small fraction on the international stage.
....
That is not what this country AND the EU are arguing about.The sides seem close enough on fish 25% plays 35% quota it seems - as well as the principle at least of a LPF with regulatory alignment going forwards being needed to underpin an FTA - that a deal is within sight. The former is a rather modest outcome, and the latter could render any divergence pointless and impotent. I really didn't think this country would get to a point were it is arguing furiously about the possibility of increasing 0.12% of its GDP by a small fraction on the international stage.
....
You also seem to be reading a lot into what has been agreed.
DeepEnd said:
Agree with EU trying to force their states (e.g. France) to consider truck drivers as essential workers.
It also shows a) shows EU acting in our interests and b) shows nations can still do their own thing under the EU.
Did the EU act in our interest when the French did their own thing and illegally refused to lift the beef ban? It also shows a) shows EU acting in our interests and b) shows nations can still do their own thing under the EU.
DeepEnd said:
Agree with EU trying to force their states (e.g. France) to consider truck drivers as essential workers.
It also shows a) shows EU acting in our interests and b) shows nations can still do their own thing under the EU.
EU acting in our interests ? Really ? Most of the stuck truckers on this side of the channel are EU nationals whose countries doubtless want them and their trucks home. Suspect there's plenty of pressure on the other side of the channel to keep trucks coming this way too. You think the EU are altruistic ?It also shows a) shows EU acting in our interests and b) shows nations can still do their own thing under the EU.
DeepEnd said:
Agree with EU trying to force their states (e.g. France) to consider truck drivers as essential workers.
It also shows a) shows EU acting in our interests and b) shows nations can still do their own thing under the EU.
The views from Manston are quite something.
https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/134136030102...
What is the view on the UK dropping the 80% quota demand down to 35%? Fair dos or capitulation?
I would like to know who controls the total amount of fish of each type is caught, then who gets what share of those fish.It also shows a) shows EU acting in our interests and b) shows nations can still do their own thing under the EU.
The views from Manston are quite something.
https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/134136030102...
What is the view on the UK dropping the 80% quota demand down to 35%? Fair dos or capitulation?
The percentages being bandied about are meaningless in isolation.
Tryke3 said:
crankedup said:
The question of the U.K. fixing the deadline for talks is wholly sensible and understandable.Without such a deadline the EU could and would drag on the negotiations for ever and a day. Why wouldn’t they, nothing to lose from their perspective and everything down to extra cost both in financial and political terms, imo.
And this is why brexit is stupid , we ain't got nothing arguti said:
As others have said all along, it was never going to be easy to separate but given that both parties used the same regulations and laws, the trade deal should have been "easier" than it has been -
Wasn't being part of (inside) the Single Market a key factor? The way I saw it we were given certain preferential trade terms from being IN the Single Market, and one of the consequences of this was having to comply with the same laws and regulations. We now no longer wish to be subject to EU regulations and laws but still want the same preferential treatment?arguti said:
however, it is what it is and I am pretty sure businesses on both sides will make it work whilst the politicians stuff around - was it ever any different?
Indeed. It's a bit like being made redundant from a job, or just choosing to walk out.. We'll find another job somewhere (or become self employed) and we'll cut our cloth accordingly. Hell, it might even be better than the job we had....we didn't like anybody and everybody was always bickering..... 
Murph7355 said:
DeepEnd said:
....
The sides seem close enough on fish 25% plays 35% quota it seems - as well as the principle at least of a LPF with regulatory alignment going forwards being needed to underpin an FTA - that a deal is within sight. The former is a rather modest outcome, and the latter could render any divergence pointless and impotent. I really didn't think this country would get to a point were it is arguing furiously about the possibility of increasing 0.12% of its GDP by a small fraction on the international stage.
....
That is not what this country AND the EU are arguing about.The sides seem close enough on fish 25% plays 35% quota it seems - as well as the principle at least of a LPF with regulatory alignment going forwards being needed to underpin an FTA - that a deal is within sight. The former is a rather modest outcome, and the latter could render any divergence pointless and impotent. I really didn't think this country would get to a point were it is arguing furiously about the possibility of increasing 0.12% of its GDP by a small fraction on the international stage.
....
You also seem to be reading a lot into what has been agreed.
The Politico piece was mainly about a landing zone that was nothing more than a proposal of what such a zone could look like.
Downing St is denying any deal has been agreed, and went further to suggest a no-deal was still the most likely outcome, and the EU have reportedly declined the latest offer from the UK.
It's difficult to come to any consensus right now as to where we are, and there are conflicting reports all over the place.
Lily the Pink said:
DeepEnd said:
Agree with EU trying to force their states (e.g. France) to consider truck drivers as essential workers.
It also shows a) shows EU acting in our interests and b) shows nations can still do their own thing under the EU.
EU acting in our interests ? Really ? Most of the stuck truckers on this side of the channel are EU nationals whose countries doubtless want them and their trucks home. Suspect there's plenty of pressure on the other side of the channel to keep trucks coming this way too. You think the EU are altruistic ?It also shows a) shows EU acting in our interests and b) shows nations can still do their own thing under the EU.
It is France who are keeping the border closed to unaccompanied freight and hence the truckers marooned in Manston, not the EU.
In this case the EU appear to be doing what I think is right in terms of allowing a relatively small number of truckers (UK or EU or from wherever) move freely and continue what I regards as "essential work" during both the pandemic and at any time.
Whether France are playing politics (including to pressure the deal talks) or just reacting to the "self imposed declaration by our PM they everyone in SE UK is super infectious" is something that may never be clarified absolutely.
I don't agree with FR blocking these essential truck movements, certainly not for this long.
Lily the Pink said:
DeepEnd said:
Agree with EU trying to force their states (e.g. France) to consider truck drivers as essential workers.
It also shows a) shows EU acting in our interests and b) shows nations can still do their own thing under the EU.
EU acting in our interests ? Really ? Most of the stuck truckers on this side of the channel are EU nationals whose countries doubtless want them and their trucks home. Suspect there's plenty of pressure on the other side of the channel to keep trucks coming this way too. You think the EU are altruistic ?It also shows a) shows EU acting in our interests and b) shows nations can still do their own thing under the EU.
Which is not the conclusion I'd come to, but it's a free country.
IforB said:
Countdown said:
Question for both Remainers and leavers...... regardless of the pros and cons of Brexit did anybody NOT envisage this happening ?
Being completely honest this is exactly what I assumed would happen (well, either a complete WTO-style break, or something not far off but with various fig-leaves that Boris can use to pretend everything is OK).
This disaster was as obvious 4 years ago as it is today. Being completely honest this is exactly what I assumed would happen (well, either a complete WTO-style break, or something not far off but with various fig-leaves that Boris can use to pretend everything is OK).
It was always going to be an absolute mess.
Basically a 50 50 vote on a binary question. No-one was ever going to be happy and it was always going to end up with a fudge.
However, what none of us foresaw was just how badly it has been screwed up. It was always going to be bad, but not is our wildest dreams did we envisaged it to be this appallingly handled, but no-one imagined we would end up with such incompetence in Government.
IforB said:
Countdown said:
Question for both Remainers and leavers...... regardless of the pros and cons of Brexit did anybody NOT envisage this happening ?
Being completely honest this is exactly what I assumed would happen (well, either a complete WTO-style break, or something not far off but with various fig-leaves that Boris can use to pretend everything is OK).
This disaster was as obvious 4 years ago as it is today. Being completely honest this is exactly what I assumed would happen (well, either a complete WTO-style break, or something not far off but with various fig-leaves that Boris can use to pretend everything is OK).
It was always going to be an absolute mess.
Basically a 50 50 vote on a binary question. No-one was ever going to be happy and it was always going to end up with a fudge.
However, what none of us foresaw was just how badly it has been screwed up. It was always going to be bad, but not is our wildest dreams did we envisaged it to be this appallingly handled, but no-one imagined we would end up with such incompetence in Government.
I am a bit more surprised at how long it taken to get where we are but that is down to what surprised me the most:
Which was
Just how f
ked up, devious and utterly undemocratic people (especially in parliament) on the remain side of the argument would be after the vote was lost, because , lets face it, if they could have stopped the process they would have, and they had a damned good go at it.THAT is what most people (me included) didn't forsee or expect, THAT is what has been the most appalling , and so far most divisive and, in the long term, damaging aspect to all of this so far.
I knew we had some t
ts in this country but more, it seems than I had bargained for!You will not agree but then , as you posted yourself yesterday, you simply "don't understand"
Wombat3 said:
Not overly surprised by the overall position
I am a bit more surprised at how long it taken to get where we are but that is down to what surprised me the most:
Which was
Just how fked up, devious and utterly undemocratic people (especially in parliament) on the remain side of the argument would be after the vote was lost, because , lets face it, if they could have stopped the process they would have, and they had a damned good go at it.
THAT is what most people (me included) didn't forsee or expect, THAT is what has been the most appalling , and so far most divisive and, in the long term, damaging aspect to all of this so far.
I knew we had some tts in this country but more, it seems than I had bargained for!
You will not agree but then , as you posted yourself yesterday, you simply "don't understand"
Nailed it. I am a bit more surprised at how long it taken to get where we are but that is down to what surprised me the most:
Which was
Just how f
ked up, devious and utterly undemocratic people (especially in parliament) on the remain side of the argument would be after the vote was lost, because , lets face it, if they could have stopped the process they would have, and they had a damned good go at it.THAT is what most people (me included) didn't forsee or expect, THAT is what has been the most appalling , and so far most divisive and, in the long term, damaging aspect to all of this so far.
I knew we had some t
ts in this country but more, it seems than I had bargained for!You will not agree but then , as you posted yourself yesterday, you simply "don't understand"
Jazzy Jag said:
Wombat3 said:
Not overly surprised by the overall position
I am a bit more surprised at how long it taken to get where we are but that is down to what surprised me the most:
Which was
Just how fked up, devious and utterly undemocratic people (especially in parliament) on the remain side of the argument would be after the vote was lost, because , lets face it, if they could have stopped the process they would have, and they had a damned good go at it.
THAT is what most people (me included) didn't forsee or expect, THAT is what has been the most appalling , and so far most divisive and, in the long term, damaging aspect to all of this so far.
I knew we had some tts in this country but more, it seems than I had bargained for!
You will not agree but then , as you posted yourself yesterday, you simply "don't understand"
Nailed it. I am a bit more surprised at how long it taken to get where we are but that is down to what surprised me the most:
Which was
Just how f
ked up, devious and utterly undemocratic people (especially in parliament) on the remain side of the argument would be after the vote was lost, because , lets face it, if they could have stopped the process they would have, and they had a damned good go at it.THAT is what most people (me included) didn't forsee or expect, THAT is what has been the most appalling , and so far most divisive and, in the long term, damaging aspect to all of this so far.
I knew we had some t
ts in this country but more, it seems than I had bargained for!You will not agree but then , as you posted yourself yesterday, you simply "don't understand"
I feel that its almost inevitable that we move to WTO for a spell.
The UK voting to leave seemed to be a simple lose-lose proposition, but the EU have always tried to complicate that by wishing to ensure that the UK has to be seen to be punished.
It inevitably has to get to a point where anything more than zero fish is a good deal for France and not adding 10% to every vehicle exported to the UK by VAG alone puts pressure on member states to “get real”. I believe that they will also wish to benefit from our considerable expertise in Financial Services.
Perhaps once Boris is gone, the UK will also find it more advantageous to export by RoRo rather than much more complicated LoLo. We already have the infrastructure for it.
The UK voting to leave seemed to be a simple lose-lose proposition, but the EU have always tried to complicate that by wishing to ensure that the UK has to be seen to be punished.
It inevitably has to get to a point where anything more than zero fish is a good deal for France and not adding 10% to every vehicle exported to the UK by VAG alone puts pressure on member states to “get real”. I believe that they will also wish to benefit from our considerable expertise in Financial Services.
Perhaps once Boris is gone, the UK will also find it more advantageous to export by RoRo rather than much more complicated LoLo. We already have the infrastructure for it.
rockin said:
saaby93 said:
Surprised that it's already been agreed to have a border in the Irish Sea. May wasn't allowed that option with the coalition.
Best of all, if you were to click back through this thread you'd find people swearing blind that it would never happen. Their whole thrust was, "We'll have a single, sovereign UK of GB&NI and it's it up to EU/Ireland to decide what they want to do about Ireland/NI border checks".Which explains why there's been so little comment on here. They prefer to pretend it's not happening.
digimeistter said:
Apparently Macron's not very popular with his masters at the moment
If this isn't a stick to get our fish, I'll eat my hat.
'Masters'? I thought EU countries were sovereign nations in control of their own destiny, with the EU merely providing a framework for assistance? Have I misunderstood?If this isn't a stick to get our fish, I'll eat my hat.
Ridgemont said:
rockin said:
saaby93 said:
Surprised that it's already been agreed to have a border in the Irish Sea. May wasn't allowed that option with the coalition.
Best of all, if you were to click back through this thread you'd find people swearing blind that it would never happen. Their whole thrust was, "We'll have a single, sovereign UK of GB&NI and it's it up to EU/Ireland to decide what they want to do about Ireland/NI border checks".Which explains why there's been so little comment on here. They prefer to pretend it's not happening.
Why is May's time at the wheel relevant to those ideas being shelved? What was stopping Boris dusting them off if they were a "better" way to exit?
Biggy Stardust said:
digimeistter said:
Apparently Macron's not very popular with his masters at the moment
If this isn't a stick to get our fish, I'll eat my hat.
'Masters'? I thought EU countries were sovereign nations in control of their own destiny, with the EU merely providing a framework for assistance? Have I misunderstood?If this isn't a stick to get our fish, I'll eat my hat.
Forgive me, I should have clarified. The EU Commission are fine with it, however the European Heads of State are lobbying to have the ban lifted
(apparently)
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