2021 - Retailer woe & retail sector chat

[b0rk]

markcoznottz said:

It’s surprising a nationwide company has single digit stock numbers in its stores... it only takes one order to clear out a particular product.

I think the screwfix stock problem is more a case of them having too big a range of branch stock items. So they can’t hold anything more 10 or 20 of a single SKU in each branch before running out of room. Then coupled with whatever is there restocking policy branches repeatedly end up with zero stock or just one on the shelf.

If you look at the more traditional wholesales with retail branches they only have a very limited range of branch stock items but hold copious amounts at each branch.

B&Q high street might fit into this model by having a very limited range of branch stock items but far higher quantities. Possibly an attempt to switch retail customers from screwfix to B&Q highstreet? Wouldn’t be shocked if Kingfisher make it possible to click and collect next day screwfix items from B&Q high street.

[Gecko1978]

bristolracer said:

I see a few issues

If I pay for delivery that means it comes to my door.
It does not mean that I have to get dressed, find my keys, leave my flat,get the lift and then romp down the street to the only place the vehicle can pull over and retrieve a cold pizza whose toppings have all fallen off, because the local kids have once again tipped it over for giggles.

Errm its the size of an SUV, do kids in your area tip them over. Also moped riders in london are often attacked for their bikes. Also why would it be cold if the compartment was heated. Also do you. Normally answer the door to the delivery driver naked bit odd. But yeah you might have to go to the kerb side.

[Gecko1978]

hyphen said:

Gecko1978 said:

...This is the future, and this is one where many jobs suddenly are no longer required.

But if they take away all the jobs, who is going to have the money to buy the products? Universal income paid from taxes on profits of robot worker companies, that are then spent back with the robot worker companies

Thats the government's problem not retailers. Maybe new jobs will come about servicing these things but these will be skilled jobs unlike delivery drivers. The vehicles won't speed, will get traffic data, carry no cash, be able to go to more than one delivery at a time but keep good warm.

So driverless delivery, remote workingx remote shopping, anyone thinking this is not going to take over really is putting their head in the sand. AI advances I suspect will consign call centers to the history books too in the long run.

[glazbagun]

Uggers said:

Wondering around Cork today for work. Came across Debenhams, which is a real wow building to me.



Again completely closed for good and laying empty. It got me thinking about how you repurposed buildings such as this? And the likes of Debenhams had some amazing property around the country. Likewise other big retailers that have gone to the wall recently.
Too big for another city center retailer.
Don't lend themselves to been partitioned. Even if they did partition, there are so many other similar sized retailers obviously struggling.
I imagine big retailers want large out of town, easy access and cheap to maintain and heat.
Hospitality? Hotel? Anyone investing in that the next few years would need balls of steel. Would a deep building like this lend itself for flats/hotel?
Offices? No demand for that anymore.

Reality? Left to go derelict?

Such a shame, Cork is a lovely place, but so many empty properties and big retailers gone it will take quite a lot to bring it back to what I remember it 15 years ago.

See also Jenners. The place went downhill as soon as HoF bought it back in the day, but now both are gone from Princes Street. The owners are saying it will remain a department store, at least. Hopefully it won't become fancy flats.

[MyNewLeng]

I'll be doing my best to boycott firms who decide to go full automation at the expense of workers at the bottom of the rung. Although I suspect that will become more difficult as time goes on.

[Gecko1978]

MyNewLeng said:

I'll be doing my best to boycott firms who decide to go full automation at the expense of workers at the bottom of the rung. Although I suspect that will become more difficult as time goes on.

I do see what you are saying but take McDonalds, they have less staff on tills now with the screen ordering, its just progress. People scan and shop, people order online, frankly how it gets to you is about convenience above all else.

Sad thing is this has been on the cards for 10 years but instead of investing in technology and training we are building a railway no one needs.

[survivalist]

bristolracer said:

hyphen said:

B&Q are moving into the high street from what I spotted today.

An 'opening soon' unit in Tooting High Street and another opening soon unit near South Side Wandsworth. Neither seemed particularly large.

Personally I would rather the Kingfisher Group opened more Screwfix stores, but suppose higher margins to be had by selling tiles/paint/plants type stuff for the homeowner wanting to spruce up a bit. Plus click and collect.

Aside from the sections in Poundland and Wilko's, no national diy chain on the high street is there? Has there been in the past? As Homebase was out of town.

Edited by hyphen on Saturday 17th April 19:49

I bet they have seen the resurgence of the high street hardware store and have decided they want a piece of the action.
If their stock levels are anything like their sister company screwfix, then they will be rubbish.
So much of screwfixes stuff is 24 to 48 hour order nowadays, with the more expensive higher mark up stuff being the only thing in stock.

It’s a fairly niche offering aimed at large cities though, I doubt it’s the beginning of a shift in how B&Q operate.

Many people in London don’t own cars, so their choices are Amazon or the local hardware store.

Once you’re in the suburbs, everyone has to own a car anyway, so big out of town stores will continue to be the norm.

Nothing against B&Q, but I hope people continue to use their local hardware stores .

[eldar]

MyNewLeng said:

I'll be doing my best to boycott firms who decide to go full automation at the expense of workers at the bottom of the rung. Although I suspect that will become more difficult as time goes on.

I remember this being popular 40 years ago, computers were going to do everything and all the jobs would disappear.

Computers destroyed millions of jobs and created millions. Why would automation be different?

[pquinn]

hyphen said:

Following the Cafe Nero bid, EG Group (Issa brother/PE) have bought the food chain Leon. £100m which sounds a awful lot for a company that struggled under lockdown and whose future success depends on workers going back into offices full time.

Whats the plan? Build blocks of flats on the site of the petrol stations, with an small EV 'petrol station', and an Asda, coffee shop and Leon? Nero and Leon are a little more upmarket than Asda though.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/articl...

What's the plan? Probably not very sophisticated if they're sticking with their usual model. It's seems mostly to be find a distressed asset and raise debt from any old source to fund it.

There's going to be an epic crater left sooner or later, though things in the UK haven't quite matched the comical levels some in the US are managing with all the money sloshing around. (Like a $100m company basically being just a single crappy little deli underneath.)

[vikingaero]

b0rk said:

markcoznottz said:

It’s surprising a nationwide company has single digit stock numbers in its stores... it only takes one order to clear out a particular product.

I think the screwfix stock problem is more a case of them having too big a range of branch stock items. So they can’t hold anything more 10 or 20 of a single SKU in each branch before running out of room. Then coupled with whatever is there restocking policy branches repeatedly end up with zero stock or just one on the shelf.

If you look at the more traditional wholesales with retail branches they only have a very limited range of branch stock items but hold copious amounts at each branch.

B&Q high street might fit into this model by having a very limited range of branch stock items but far higher quantities. Possibly an attempt to switch retail customers from screwfix to B&Q highstreet? Wouldn’t be shocked if Kingfisher make it possible to click and collect next day screwfix items from B&Q high street.

It's the Argos system of stock control. Years ago, pop into an Argos, tap the item code in and the hi-tech system would tell you there are 155 of that coffee machine in stock. Now do the same and there will only be what they would expect to sell on a busy day - usually single digits. Every time there is a sale, the system will despatch another one overnight from the RDC to the branch. It works most of the time unless someone clears them out.

Argos really have made done wonders with their stock control and their stock holding costs must be ultra low. Most of the other retailers are only just catching up.

[dmahon]

pquinn said:

What's the plan? Probably not very sophisticated if they're sticking with their usual model. It's seems mostly to be find a distressed asset and raise debt from any old source to fund it.

There's going to be an epic crater left sooner or later, though things in the UK haven't quite matched the comical levels some in the US are managing with all the money sloshing around. (Like a $100m company basically being just a single crappy little deli underneath.)

Not sure if you are making the same point, but after reading about US tech company valuations such as a Coinbase with an $85 billion valuation, $100m doesn’t sound like a lot of money anymore for a big brand like Leon.

The Mike Ashley playbook of buying a brand then driving into the ground eg by selling Leon ready meals next to the Ginsters pasties in the petrol stations might work on this one.

[MyNewLeng]

eldar said:

I remember this being popular 40 years ago, computers were going to do everything and all the jobs would disappear.

Computers destroyed millions of jobs and created millions. Why would automation be different?

I genuinely hope you are right. As a truck driver these almost daily articles of Company X investing X millions into driverless vehicles and AI keeps me awake at night. Feeling very pessimistic about the future at the moment.

[dmahon]

MyNewLeng said:

I genuinely hope you are right. As a truck driver these almost daily articles of Company X investing X millions into driverless vehicles and AI keeps me awake at night. Feeling very pessimistic about the future at the moment.

If it’s any consolation, people have probably been thinking that since the advent of the wheel. I’m not sure quite how, but the economy still keeps employment high in spite of the relentless March of technology.

AI still has a long way to go too. Longer than all our career horizons.

[hyphen]

vikingaero said:

b0rk said:

markcoznottz said:

It’s surprising a nationwide company has single digit stock numbers in its stores... it only takes one order to clear out a particular product.

I think the screwfix stock problem is more a case of them having too big a range of branch stock items. So they can’t hold anything more 10 or 20 of a single SKU in each branch before running out of room. Then coupled with whatever is there restocking policy branches repeatedly end up with zero stock or just one on the shelf.

If you look at the more traditional wholesales with retail branches they only have a very limited range of branch stock items but hold copious amounts at each branch.

B&Q high street might fit into this model by having a very limited range of branch stock items but far higher quantities. Possibly an attempt to switch retail customers from screwfix to B&Q highstreet? Wouldn’t be shocked if Kingfisher make it possible to click and collect next day screwfix items from B&Q high street.

It's the Argos system of stock control. Years ago, pop into an Argos, tap the item code in and the hi-tech system would tell you there are 155 of that coffee machine in stock. Now do the same and there will only be what they would expect to sell on a busy day - usually single digits. Every time there is a sale, the system will despatch another one overnight from the RDC to the branch. It works most of the time unless someone clears them out.

Argos really have made done wonders with their stock control and their stock holding costs must be ultra low. Most of the other retailers are only just catching up.

I've thought of a name for it, Just In Time.

Off to trademark the phrase before anyone steals it

[hyphen]

MyNewLeng said:

I genuinely hope you are right. As a truck driver these almost daily articles of Company X investing X millions into driverless vehicles and AI keeps me awake at night. Feeling very pessimistic about the future at the moment.

Dude, a Tesla drove into a tree today and killed its two occupants.

We are decades away.

[hyphen]

survivalist said:

Many people in London don’t own cars, so their choices are Amazon or the local hardware store.

Once you’re in the suburbs....

Many centrally are renting? And those that can afford to buy are unlikely to use B&Q I would imagine, would be a bigger budget refurb.

[OMITN]

MyNewLeng said:

I genuinely hope you are right. As a truck driver these almost daily articles of Company X investing X millions into driverless vehicles and AI keeps me awake at night. Feeling very pessimistic about the future at the moment.

You’re one of the lucky ones - regulation will manage the AI impact on your world. I’m a lawyer and AI is already doing the work I did as a junior lawyer 20 years ago.

[Murph7355]

glazbagun said:

See also Jenners. The place went downhill as soon as HoF bought it back in the day, but now both are gone from Princes Street. The owners are saying it will remain a department store, at least. Hopefully it won't become fancy flats.

Buildings need to be used or they go into disrepair very quickly. Better a beautiful building like that gets repurposed than deteriorates.

MyNewLeng said:

I'll be doing my best to boycott firms who decide to go full automation at the expense of workers at the bottom of the rung. Although I suspect that will become more difficult as time goes on.

Pushing water uphill.

We need to be improving productivity, not strangling it.

People need to be retrained, moved up the food chain.

hyphen said:

Dude, a Tesla drove into a tree today and killed its two occupants.

We are decades away.

Maybe.

Though expecting zero incidents before adoption is allowed is folly. All they have to be is demonstrably better than human equivalents.

May still be decades away, but look how fast things are progressing. I wouldn't bet on more than 2 decades max. Quite possibly 1.

[BurtonLazars]

hyphen said:

Dude, a Tesla drove into a tree today and killed its two occupants. We are decades away.

In the US. On a beta, with “99.9% chance of” no one in the driver seat. Meanwhile 30 people a day are killed or seriously injured per day in the UK alone.

That being said I’m most excited about passengerless delivery cars like the Nuro R2. I think they’re the sweet spot for this tech and the real game changer for retail delivery. Refrigerated/ heated/ odd shapes, whatever you need for the item to be delivered.

[snuffy]

Murph7355 said:

Maybe.

Though expecting zero incidents before adoption is allowed is folly. All they have to be is demonstrably better than human equivalents.

May still be decades away, but look how fast things are progressing. I wouldn't bet on more than 2 decades max. Quite possibly 1.

Logically you are correct, but that's not how the world works anymore.

c.f. Covid vaccine. 1 in million "may" die of a blood clot, and that 1 in a million change is enough to get it stopped.

3000 deaths a year caused by driver error is acceptable, but just 1 caused by software is not. That's how the world thinks now.