Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 10
Discussion
Composer62 said:
Slightly disappointing as I'd LOVE to see George Galloway up against Nicola Sturgeon. She wouldn't stand a chance. You just need to see his performance against the US Senate. They were mostly slack jawed at his rhetoric,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5u1skEoqLs
Pretty much a masterclass ?
I generally can't stand him but watched that live and decided he was worth a pint if we ever met. It was a brilliant day.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5u1skEoqLs
Pretty much a masterclass ?
Edited by Composer62 on Wednesday 21st April 01:10
Composer62 said:
Slightly disappointing as I'd LOVE to see George Galloway up against Nicola Sturgeon. She wouldn't stand a chance. You just need to see his performance against the US Senate. They were mostly slack jawed at his rhetoric,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5u1skEoqLs
Pretty much a masterclass ?
Kinda wish I'd voted AFU now, at least he has the baws to stand for his convictions, and that's something you can't often say about politicians!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5u1skEoqLs
Pretty much a masterclass ?
irc said:
cuprabob said:
Vote Labour on your first ballot paper and All for Unity on your second ballot paper.
Depends. AFU may be a good shout in South Scotland. Elsewhere if they poll only 5% they may take votes from unionist list candidates without getting past the threshhold for getting a seat.Generally I'd suggest the unionist most likely for vote 1 as per that image then either labour or Tory list.
Opinion polls show AFU around 4% not enough for a seat most regions and a wasted list vote therefore.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
This made sense to me , finally!
https://theferret.scot/ffs-explains-scottish-elect...
How does our electoral system work?
The system used for Scottish Parliament elections is called the Additional Members System.
Each elector has two votes they can cast on the ballot paper. The first vote is based on the first past the post, system used in UK Parliament elections. The electorate is given a choice of different people who may or may not be representing a political party, in its local constituency area.
The person who gets the most votes wins and becomes the MSP for that constituency. There are 73 MSPs who are elected this way.
The second vote is known as the regional or list vote and is a form of proportional representation. For this, Scotland is divided up into eight regions, each with seven spots for list MSPs. Electors are given choices of party to vote for. Each party standing in the region will list its candidates. A mathematical formula is used to allocate the votes for each party in each region, and decides how many of those on the list get elected.
Regional candidates are listed in order, so the person at the top of the list will be the first elected, followed by the second, third etc – should the party receive the requisite number of votes.
So how does the formula work?
The system aims to make the number of parliamentarians more representative of the number of votes each party receives.
In a first past the post system, a party can receive a substantial amount of support from the electorate in each constituency and yet have very little representation in parliament. An example of this would be UKIP’s performance in the 2015 general election, when the party received more than 3.8 million votes but only returned a single MP, despite being the third most supported party.
The additional members system aims to avoid such situations by allocating regional list seats through the D’Hondt formula, named after a Belgian mathematician.
This system allocates seats by taking the number of regional votes a party gets, and dividing it by the number of MSPs that party wins within that region, plus one.
For example, if Party A had one MSP elected in the region through the constituency vote, their number of list votes would be divided by two (number of MSPs + 1). So if they received 20,000 list votes, their number would be 10,000.
Let’s say this was higher than the next highest, Party B, who received 8,000 votes and had no MSPs elected in constituencies. Party B’s vote would be divided by 1 (Number of MSPs + 1) and stay the same. Party A would then win the first round and get one MSP elected.
In round two, this MSP would be added to Party A’s calculation, so their 20,000 would now be divided by three (number of MSPs + 1), giving them 6,667. This would be lower than Party B’s number of 8,000, so Party B would get an MSP in the second round. This would continue until all the regional MSP places are assigned.
So how does this help smaller parties in Scotland?
Those who receive a significant number of votes on the list system, but are unlikely to gain enough support to unseat a major party in a constituency can use the list vote to ensure representation. As they will have fewer MSPs elected in constituencies, their vote is not reduced by the D’Hondt system as much as larger parties.
In Scotland, there have been parties who have been regularly represented without any success in constituencies.
The Scottish Greens had six MSPs elected through the regional list in the 2016 election, accounting for all its parliamentary representation. The Scottish Socialist Party had six MSPs elected in 2003 through the regional list.
On 26 March 2021, former first minister Alex Salmond launched the Alba Party, after leaving the SNP in the fallout from sexual assault allegations against him. He stated the party’s intention was to stand on the regional list only, with the aim of maximising the number of independence-supporting MSPs in Scotland. The party will not stand in constituencies to avoid splitting the SNP vote.
In a similar vein, former MP George Galloway, launched Alliance for Unity (now known as All for Unity), an electoral alliance made up of opponents to Scottish independence. It is urging voters to support pro-union candidates in the constituency vote and back All for Unity on the regional list, in order to maximise the anti-independence vote and deny the SNP a majority in parliament.
Both parties endorse votes for other parties on the constituency vote, and are campaigning purely on the list. This is intended to take advantage of the lower threshold required on the list to get elected.
https://theferret.scot/ffs-explains-scottish-elect...
How does our electoral system work?
The system used for Scottish Parliament elections is called the Additional Members System.
Each elector has two votes they can cast on the ballot paper. The first vote is based on the first past the post, system used in UK Parliament elections. The electorate is given a choice of different people who may or may not be representing a political party, in its local constituency area.
The person who gets the most votes wins and becomes the MSP for that constituency. There are 73 MSPs who are elected this way.
The second vote is known as the regional or list vote and is a form of proportional representation. For this, Scotland is divided up into eight regions, each with seven spots for list MSPs. Electors are given choices of party to vote for. Each party standing in the region will list its candidates. A mathematical formula is used to allocate the votes for each party in each region, and decides how many of those on the list get elected.
Regional candidates are listed in order, so the person at the top of the list will be the first elected, followed by the second, third etc – should the party receive the requisite number of votes.
So how does the formula work?
The system aims to make the number of parliamentarians more representative of the number of votes each party receives.
In a first past the post system, a party can receive a substantial amount of support from the electorate in each constituency and yet have very little representation in parliament. An example of this would be UKIP’s performance in the 2015 general election, when the party received more than 3.8 million votes but only returned a single MP, despite being the third most supported party.
The additional members system aims to avoid such situations by allocating regional list seats through the D’Hondt formula, named after a Belgian mathematician.
This system allocates seats by taking the number of regional votes a party gets, and dividing it by the number of MSPs that party wins within that region, plus one.
For example, if Party A had one MSP elected in the region through the constituency vote, their number of list votes would be divided by two (number of MSPs + 1). So if they received 20,000 list votes, their number would be 10,000.
Let’s say this was higher than the next highest, Party B, who received 8,000 votes and had no MSPs elected in constituencies. Party B’s vote would be divided by 1 (Number of MSPs + 1) and stay the same. Party A would then win the first round and get one MSP elected.
In round two, this MSP would be added to Party A’s calculation, so their 20,000 would now be divided by three (number of MSPs + 1), giving them 6,667. This would be lower than Party B’s number of 8,000, so Party B would get an MSP in the second round. This would continue until all the regional MSP places are assigned.
So how does this help smaller parties in Scotland?
Those who receive a significant number of votes on the list system, but are unlikely to gain enough support to unseat a major party in a constituency can use the list vote to ensure representation. As they will have fewer MSPs elected in constituencies, their vote is not reduced by the D’Hondt system as much as larger parties.
In Scotland, there have been parties who have been regularly represented without any success in constituencies.
The Scottish Greens had six MSPs elected through the regional list in the 2016 election, accounting for all its parliamentary representation. The Scottish Socialist Party had six MSPs elected in 2003 through the regional list.
On 26 March 2021, former first minister Alex Salmond launched the Alba Party, after leaving the SNP in the fallout from sexual assault allegations against him. He stated the party’s intention was to stand on the regional list only, with the aim of maximising the number of independence-supporting MSPs in Scotland. The party will not stand in constituencies to avoid splitting the SNP vote.
In a similar vein, former MP George Galloway, launched Alliance for Unity (now known as All for Unity), an electoral alliance made up of opponents to Scottish independence. It is urging voters to support pro-union candidates in the constituency vote and back All for Unity on the regional list, in order to maximise the anti-independence vote and deny the SNP a majority in parliament.
Both parties endorse votes for other parties on the constituency vote, and are campaigning purely on the list. This is intended to take advantage of the lower threshold required on the list to get elected.
jshell said:
irc said:
Depends. AFU may be a good shout in South Scotland. Elsewhere if they poll only 5% they may take votes from unionist list candidates without getting past the threshhold for getting a seat.
Generally I'd suggest the unionist most likely for vote 1 as per that image then either labour or Tory list.
Opinion polls show AFU around 4% not enough for a seat most regions and a wasted list vote therefore.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
Agreed!Generally I'd suggest the unionist most likely for vote 1 as per that image then either labour or Tory list.
Opinion polls show AFU around 4% not enough for a seat most regions and a wasted list vote therefore.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
Shambler said:
Lim...Calling Lim...
He used to love those polls, didn't he.
Composer62 said:
jshell said:
irc said:
Depends. AFU may be a good shout in South Scotland. Elsewhere if they poll only 5% they may take votes from unionist list candidates without getting past the threshhold for getting a seat.
Generally I'd suggest the unionist most likely for vote 1 as per that image then either labour or Tory list.
Opinion polls show AFU around 4% not enough for a seat most regions and a wasted list vote therefore.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
Agreed!Generally I'd suggest the unionist most likely for vote 1 as per that image then either labour or Tory list.
Opinion polls show AFU around 4% not enough for a seat most regions and a wasted list vote therefore.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5u1skEoqLs
Pretty much a masterclass ?
Edited by Composer62 on Wednesday 21st April 01:10
I stand corrected, superb performance.
I see Sturgeon has put appearing on Question Time into the too difficult bin and sent someone else. No problem doing daily briefings almost every day for a year but defend your record alongside other leaders? Bottled it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/21/ni...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/21/ni...
irc said:
I see Sturgeon has put appearing on Question Time into the too difficult bin and sent someone else. No problem doing daily briefings almost every day for a year but defend your record alongside other leaders? Bottled it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/21/ni...
Boris dodged the pre-election interview with Andrew Neil if I recall correctly. Both should be rightly criticised for doing so in my opinion. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/21/ni...
Ecosseven said:
irc said:
I see Sturgeon has put appearing on Question Time into the too difficult bin and sent someone else. No problem doing daily briefings almost every day for a year but defend your record alongside other leaders? Bottled it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/21/ni...
Boris dodged the pre-election interview with Andrew Neil if I recall correctly. Both should be rightly criticised for doing so in my opinion. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/21/ni...
steely dan said:
I'm certain Galloway could become a real pita in once ensconced in Holyrood but it would be a pleasure to see him slaughter the current loathsome incumbants at each and every opportunity .
I have always liked Galloway, clever man who fights his corner and knows his stuff. This should be a good watch:
Scottish tax, benefits and public spending - what's happened and what do the parties propose?
https://www.ifs.org.uk/events/1910
Scottish tax, benefits and public spending - what's happened and what do the parties propose?
https://www.ifs.org.uk/events/1910
Composer62 said:
jshell said:
irc said:
Depends. AFU may be a good shout in South Scotland. Elsewhere if they poll only 5% they may take votes from unionist list candidates without getting past the threshhold for getting a seat.
Generally I'd suggest the unionist most likely for vote 1 as per that image then either labour or Tory list.
Opinion polls show AFU around 4% not enough for a seat most regions and a wasted list vote therefore.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
Agreed!Generally I'd suggest the unionist most likely for vote 1 as per that image then either labour or Tory list.
Opinion polls show AFU around 4% not enough for a seat most regions and a wasted list vote therefore.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5u1skEoqLs
Pretty much a masterclass ?
Edited by Composer62 on Wednesday 21st April 01:10
That was some performance. He absolutely tore them to sheds.
More bad news for Sturgeon, Angus and Bunter.....
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d95b5490-a2e7-1...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d95b5490-a2e7-1...
is-uk said:
More bad news for Sturgeon, Angus and Bunter.....
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d95b5490-a2e7-1...
So nothing has changed since 2014. If the dont knows were to vote it will probably come back with a 10 point gap the same as lsst time. Why do we need a twice in a generation vote when the result is still the same?https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d95b5490-a2e7-1...
sherman said:
is-uk said:
More bad news for Sturgeon, Angus and Bunter.....
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d95b5490-a2e7-1...
So nothing has changed since 2014. If the dont knows were to vote it will probably come back with a 10 point gap the same as lsst time. Why do we need a twice in a generation vote when the result is still the same?https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d95b5490-a2e7-1...
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