CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 9)

[turbobloke]

RickSanchez said:

turbobloke said:

JagLover said:

The Spectator have reported on that study disputing the effectiveness of lockdown

Spectator said:

Dr Eran Bendavid and Professor John Ioannidis studied the imposition of ‘non-pharmaceutical interventions’ (NPIs) in ten countries and have reached the conclusion that while less-restrictive NPIs (which include social distancing and appeals to the public to reduce their social activities) had a clear effect, more-restrictive NPIs (which include business closures and stay at home orders) produced no clear additional benefits.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/which-lockdown-measures-work-

It needs evidence like that to have a hope, but the idea of saying that restrictions aren't working as intended means we need more restrictions, is foolish. Compliance is what matters not the wording of covid laws or associated guidance. Lockdown is just a word without high levels of compliance, so it's hardly surprising to find evidence from Oxford/Blavatnik to Bendavid/ /Ioannidis.

Posted this at end of last thread just as it was being closed


Compliance with coronavirus rules has risen sharply since December and is now at its highest point since the first lockdown, according to a major new survey seen by Sky News.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-compliance-wit...

Thanks for reposting the link, interesting reading.

With respect, I find this extract the most telling when considering the implications of a survey which relies on people self-confessing as others take the fifth.

"But while the restrictions are being followed by most people, the study confirmed "rule-bending" remains as commonplace as throughout the pandemic, with a large minority adding their own "modifications" to the rules, especially when it comes to meeting other people and self-isolation time."

It only takes a small leak, while a large one could remain camouflaged in a survey depending on the age profile of respondents (even if the replies are honest). Some claim to have seen the gap.
https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/news/more-than-...

[isaldiri]

markyb_lcy said:

The govt will tighten the lockdown and restrictions purely for political reason so they can say they “acted when the numbers dictated it” and that they’re “following the science” and “making the right decisions at the right time”.

It's all driven by optics though. More people dying ie more tough talk on restrictions and general stupidity.

Which means unfortunately we are still going to be bombarded by the crap about more measures. ICU numbers continue to increase and so will deaths for a while yet.

The good news though is that we seem to have reduced the incidence of hospital caught infections. 15% ish now from over 20% in mid Dec.....

[Elysium]

V1nce Fox said:

JagLover said:

320d is all you need said:

V1nce Fox said:

Am I missing it or is the government currently not being scrutinised in any formal, political way about ongoing and additional measures/restrictions?

It seems as though all political discourse and debate has been stopped dead.

You are correct. TalkRADIO used to, but no longer because apparently when they got de platformed on Youtube now advertisers don't want to touch them so they have to tow the party line.

JHB is still posting on Twitter about it but I don't believe they are being anywhere near as vocal as they used to be certainly live on air.

Great shame really, she (and others) were really excellent but until they stop being "another MSM outlet" I'm not listening to them. I liked the cross examination.

Well he was talking about political, not media, accountability, but yes they seem to have been shutting down independent voices in the media as well.

Agreed, JHB independently is still valuable, but I was thinking about the political process more specifically. I'm seeing little scrutiny from anywhere in the house at this point. It feels very much as though parliament has failed us at a very fundamental level.

The Conservative rebels are still trying to hold the Govts feet to the fire over reopening, but Labour consistently favour more restrictions, so the reality is that there is still no coherent political opposition to lockdown.

The courts have already made it clear that they will not intervene as they see the restrictions on public health as a political issue. A position Lord Sumption predicted back in June.

The only thing that changes this is public opinion. And there are signs that is finally beginning to shift. Good Morning Britain have been a little quiet about the results of this poll as it does not suit their editorial position:

https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1348667926262509577...

[bodhi]

V1nce Fox said:

Am I missing it or is the government currently not being scrutinised in any formal, political way about ongoing and additional measures/restrictions?

It seems as though all political discourse and debate has been stopped dead.

We seem to have a new unwritten rule around COVID - you can criticise the Government for not being strict enough, but if you suggest they might be being too strict - BLOOD ON YOUR HANDS!"!"! Cunningly ignoring the fact that the restrictions are costing lives as well, but they aren't COVID deaths, so don't count. Add in a couple of third rate journalists on Twitter going made at anyone who thinks we should row things back a bit (Dan Hodges I'm looking in your direction here), and we are where we are.

The other unwritten rule I've noticed, is that whilst Sweden can only be compared to Norway and Finland, the natural comparison for the UK is New Zealand. Don't think I need to point out how bonkers that is, but again, we are where we are.

[JagLover]

Thin White Duke said:

I was surprised when the last lockdown vote received less No votes than the tier vote on Dec 1st.

the release of the vaccine changed things as there is now a better case to be made that restrictions will save lives rather than merely delay death for a few months.

Once the vulnerable have been vaccinated expect more dissension.

[Elysium]

RickSanchez said:

Posted this at end of last thread just as it was being closed


Compliance with coronavirus rules has risen sharply since December and is now at its highest point since the first lockdown, according to a major new survey seen by Sky News.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-compliance-wit...

In other words people are sensible and will limit their interactions voluntarily when they see evidence that there is a real danger to them or their families.

This is one of the main reason the human race has survived. We act in our own best interests.

[markyb_lcy]

isaldiri said:

markyb_lcy said:

The govt will tighten the lockdown and restrictions purely for political reason so they can say they “acted when the numbers dictated it” and that they’re “following the science” and “making the right decisions at the right time”.

It's all driven by optics though. More people dying ie more tough talk on restrictions and general stupidity.

Which means unfortunately we are still going to be bombarded by the crap about more measures. ICU numbers continue to increase and so will deaths for a while yet.

The good news though is that we seem to have reduced the incidence of hospital caught infections. 15% ish now from over 20% in mid Dec.....

Yep. Our only option right now as lockdown sceptics is to grin and bear it. Even the small rebellion in parliament has crumbled. “No lockdown” is a very hard sell right now.

Good to know that the NHS has made some progress though.

[turbobloke]

Elysium said:

RickSanchez said:

Posted this at end of last thread just as it was being closed


Compliance with coronavirus rules has risen sharply since December and is now at its highest point since the first lockdown, according to a major new survey seen by Sky News.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-compliance-wit...

In other words people are sensible and will limit their interactions voluntarily when they see evidence that there is a real danger to them or their families.

This is one of the main reason the human race has survived. We act in our own best interests.

I agree with the general point made ^ but the above link points to non-compliance over key aspects such as isolation periods and meeting friends.

[RickSanchez]

turbobloke said:

Thanks for reposting the link, interesting reading.

With respect, I find this extract the most telling when considering the implications of a survey which relies on people self-confessing as others take the fifth.

"But while the restrictions are being followed by most people, the study confirmed "rule-bending" remains as commonplace as throughout the pandemic, with a large minority adding their own "modifications" to the rules, especially when it comes to meeting other people and self-isolation time."

It only takes a small leak, while a large one could remain camouflaged in a survey depending on the age profile of respondents (even if the replies are honest). Some claim to have seen the gap.
https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/news/more-than-...

I agree, self reporting is always going to be flawed. I have posted this before in fact it seems to have some of the same names attached as the others. Most people think they comply more and others comply less

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2020/dec/majority-feel-...

Lead author, Dr Daisy Fancourt (UCL Epidemiology & Health Care) said: “It is concerning that people consistently assume they are obeying the rules more than the average person.

[Claptonian]

bodhi said:

The other unwritten rule I've noticed, is that whilst Sweden can only be compared to Norway and Finland, the natural comparison for the UK is New Zealand. Don't think I need to point out how bonkers that is, but again, we are where we are.

Ha, good point.

[turbobloke]

RickSanchez said:

turbobloke said:

Thanks for reposting the link, interesting reading.

With respect, I find this extract the most telling when considering the implications of a survey which relies on people self-confessing as others take the fifth.

"But while the restrictions are being followed by most people, the study confirmed "rule-bending" remains as commonplace as throughout the pandemic, with a large minority adding their own "modifications" to the rules, especially when it comes to meeting other people and self-isolation time."

It only takes a small leak, while a large one could remain camouflaged in a survey depending on the age profile of respondents (even if the replies are honest). Some claim to have seen the gap.
https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/news/more-than-...

I agree, self reporting is always going to be flawed. I have posted this before in fact it seems to have some of the same names attached as the others. Most people think they comply more and others comply less

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2020/dec/majority-feel-...

Lead author, Dr Daisy Fancourt (UCL Epidemiology & Health Care) said: “It is concerning that people consistently assume they are obeying the rules more than the average person.

Dr Daisy makes a good point.

I continue to hold that the lockdown leaks are specific including age-specific and locality specific, with harmful consequences which are leading some to seek tighter restrictions which at this point may well prove to be counter-productive.

[RickSanchez]

Recently published about mental health of ICU staff, went to find primary sources after seeing a story on Sky website saying almost half of ICU staff have turned to alcohol or had suicidal thoughts. We talk about numbers and policy a lot but sometimes forget the real people working in the hospitals

https://academic.oup.com/occmed/advance-article/do...

Overall, 709 participants took part in the study. Of these, 291 (41%) identified themselves as being doctors, 344 (49%) nurses and 74 (10%) as being in other clinical roles.

The majority of participants reported good well-being on the WEMWBS (n = 418, 59%), although almost half of participants (n = 322, 45%) met the threshold for at least one of the following measures: severe depression, PTSD, severe anxiety or problem drinking (see Table 1).

[Gadgetmac]

Claptonian said:

bodhi said:

The other unwritten rule I've noticed, is that whilst Sweden can only be compared to Norway and Finland, the natural comparison for the UK is New Zealand. Don't think I need to point out how bonkers that is, but again, we are where we are.

Ha, good point.

Why, where and when did NZ become the natural comparison for the UK?

[markyb_lcy]

Gadgetmac said:

Claptonian said:

bodhi said:

The other unwritten rule I've noticed, is that whilst Sweden can only be compared to Norway and Finland, the natural comparison for the UK is New Zealand. Don't think I need to point out how bonkers that is, but again, we are where we are.

Ha, good point.

Why, where and when did NZ become the natural comparison for the UK?

Can you not sense the obvious facetiousness in the comment? Jeez.

[blade runner]

bodhi said:

We seem to have a new unwritten rule around COVID - you can criticise the Government for not being strict enough, but if you suggest they might be being too strict - BLOOD ON YOUR HANDS!"!"!

I have thought the same for a while now. The MSM generally hate the Tories and Boris in particular. But the only way they can actually snipe at the government at the moment is to argue that the imposed restrictions aren't harsh enough - as the opposing view (i.e. they are too harsh and having massive knock-on effets for the economy and other, non-covid, health issues) is a no-go area thanks to Offcom. Hence we end up in the current situation where, if you think the MSM reflects and/or drives public opinion, we are stuck in a never-ending race to the bottom for ever more draconian measures.

[Ntv]

Elysium said:

V1nce Fox said:

JagLover said:

320d is all you need said:

V1nce Fox said:

Am I missing it or is the government currently not being scrutinised in any formal, political way about ongoing and additional measures/restrictions?

It seems as though all political discourse and debate has been stopped dead.

You are correct. TalkRADIO used to, but no longer because apparently when they got de platformed on Youtube now advertisers don't want to touch them so they have to tow the party line.

JHB is still posting on Twitter about it but I don't believe they are being anywhere near as vocal as they used to be certainly live on air.

Great shame really, she (and others) were really excellent but until they stop being "another MSM outlet" I'm not listening to them. I liked the cross examination.

Well he was talking about political, not media, accountability, but yes they seem to have been shutting down independent voices in the media as well.

Agreed, JHB independently is still valuable, but I was thinking about the political process more specifically. I'm seeing little scrutiny from anywhere in the house at this point. It feels very much as though parliament has failed us at a very fundamental level.

The Conservative rebels are still trying to hold the Govts feet to the fire over reopening, but Labour consistently favour more restrictions, so the reality is that there is still no coherent political opposition to lockdown.

The courts have already made it clear that they will not intervene as they see the restrictions on public health as a political issue. A position Lord Sumption predicted back in June.

The only thing that changes this is public opinion. And there are signs that is finally beginning to shift. Good Morning Britain have been a little quiet about the results of this poll as it does not suit their editorial position:

https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1348667926262509577...

Furlough has been as much (perhaps more) about keeping the masses off the streets, as it is bridging a hiatus in economic activity. The latter justification is, "alas", for many businesses increasingly hard or impossible to believe.

If that isn't the case, then a year on, why zero attempt to assess commercial viability before receiving stacks of taxpayer cash?

So the Government has thrown money at people to keep quiet.

The difficult times sadly are still to come

Edited by Ntv on Wednesday 13th January 10:55

[JagLover]

blade runner said:

bodhi said:

We seem to have a new unwritten rule around COVID - you can criticise the Government for not being strict enough, but if you suggest they might be being too strict - BLOOD ON YOUR HANDS!"!"!

I have thought the same for a while now. The MSM generally hate the Tories and Boris in particular. But the only way they can actually snipe at the government at the moment is to argue that the imposed restrictions aren't harsh enough - as the opposing view (i.e. they are too harsh and having massive knock-on effets for the economy and other, non-covid, health issues) is a no-go area thanks to Offcom. Hence we end up in the current situation where, if you think the MSM reflects and/or drives public opinion, we are stuck in a never-ending race to the bottom for ever more draconian measures.

Which can create the perception that they are pro-government. In fact they are pro a certain ideological position and whenever the government deviates from it they are criticised.

The Sunday Times was at it last week talking about how Boris dithered and "delayed imposing lockdown for too long". For whatever good it does it looks to me that the timing was spot on this time. Hospitals getting close to being uncomfortably busy and infections just about to reach 1 million a week.

Whether it be due to opposition to a "Brexit" government or from an emotion based position to "save every life whatever it takes" most of the media have had the same position throughout. SAGE have also been able to use them to amplify their message on numerous occasions.

[Jordan210]

I see we have a new strain to scare us all. This time from Brazil.


Like all the new "strains" they are actually variant's but thats not scary is it

[Boringvolvodriver]

Finally received a response to my FOI request.

“Freedom of Information Request Reference FOI-1267803

Thank you for your request dated 1 November 2020 in which you asked the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC):
“Please let me know what the false positive rate is for the PCR tests undertaken in both pillar 1 and pillar 2 testing labs. A breakdown from every lab is required.”

Your request has been handled under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).

For ease of reference, we have separated and numbered the individual elements of your request.
1. “Please let me know what the false positive rate is for the PCR tests undertaken in both pillar 1 and pillar 2 testing labs.”

DHSC does not hold the information you requested for Pillar 1.

DHSC holds the information you requested for Pillar 2. The current tests are very specific and the risk of false positives (where the test is reacting to other viruses) is extremely low in the order of 1 in 100. We do know that there is a risk of detecting residual RNA for many weeks after an initial infection and laboratories look closely at the results of the tests to determine whether this is the case.

2. “A breakdown from every lab is required.”

DHSC does not hold the information you have requested.“

So the information on false positives is not given to the DHSC nor the details from each lab - doesn’t mean the information is not available of course but the DHSC do not know. You would thought that the department that Hancock runs might want the information to help make decisions.

Strange that they have it for Pillar 2 where more tests are undertaken although note the words “in the order of 1 in 100” Not an accurate figure.

[Helicopter123]

Elysium said:

A bit of good news this morning. Signs that hospital admissions may have peaked in London:

I hope that you are correct, but with some hospitals at capacity they physically cannot accept any more admissions other than on a "one in one out" basis. This will create some confusion in the data.

I would expect admissions to begin falling c. 3 weeks after lockdown so another 10 days or so.