CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 9)

[Twinfan]

markyb_lcy said:

Agreed, it’s going to be June if we are lucky and even then I think we will be stuck with “rule of six” and other curbs on our liberties. I would be surprised if we see nightclubs, gigs and festivals and other mass events until summer 2022 at the earliest.

I don't think I'll be playing a pub gig this year, my bandmates seem to think otherwise. It'll be great if we do but I just can't see it happening.

[Steve vRS]

Elysium said:

This is exactly the same with driving. We all think we are better drivers than everyone else.

And sex. We are all expert lovers.

[Gadgetmac]

jameswills said:

markyb_lcy said:

isaldiri said:

markyb_lcy said:

The govt will tighten the lockdown and restrictions purely for political reason so they can say they “acted when the numbers dictated it” and that they’re “following the science” and “making the right decisions at the right time”.

It's all driven by optics though. More people dying ie more tough talk on restrictions and general stupidity.

Which means unfortunately we are still going to be bombarded by the crap about more measures. ICU numbers continue to increase and so will deaths for a while yet.

The good news though is that we seem to have reduced the incidence of hospital caught infections. 15% ish now from over 20% in mid Dec.....

Yep. Our only option right now as lockdown sceptics is to grin and bear it. Even the small rebellion in parliament has crumbled. “No lockdown” is a very hard sell right now.

Good to know that the NHS has made some progress though.

I too am coming quickly to this conclusion now. The alternative and more pragmatic and positive view of trying to move forward has been out there for so long it is impossible to think it hasn’t been heard. Fighting against the inevitability of another year of restrictions I don’t think will do anyone any good. What I find quite sad though is many people who are not exactly in favour of lockdowns but are happy to “do their bit” really do believe that normality will resume within the next 2 months. They have completely forgotten that they have been sold that pup every month for the last 10. That will not change one bit come April.

I watched an Immunology/Staistics professor on the TV last night (might have been newsnight but can't remember) who says that if vaccinations continue at the rate supposed come the end of March cases/hospitalisations/deaths will all drop off the cliff and we'll be in a much better place than we've been in since last February.

If that's true then restrictions will be lifted (probably partially at first) and employers will start calling employees back into work slowly.

So April is entirely do-able as being in a different world to where we currently are. I say doable but that's not guaranteed obvs. But I do feel Summer is looking good.

[MDMetal]

Ashfordian said:

MDMetal said:

So once again lockdown has come a few days after a dip in infection rates. This is now 3 times.

Whats happening?

A) The virus has naturally peaked, our tolarance for cases seems to be aligned with when it peaks
B) The whispering of lockdown coming has helpped alter peoples behaviour.
C) The government are very very good at picking their start date.

C is scary, B sounds plausable but I don't believe any data backs it up leaving A?

D, which is best answered by Elysium in his earlier post

Elysium said:

In other words people are sensible and will limit their interactions voluntarily when they see evidence that there is a real danger to them or their families.

This is one of the main reason the human race has survived. We act in our own best interests.

I count that as A because fo countries with no lockdown the peak wasn't catastrophic. So there is a natural peak

[Pupbelly]

Crumbs this thread moves quick!

[jameswills]

Gadgetmac said:

I watched an Immunology/Staistics professor on the TV last night (might have been newsnight but can't remember) who says that if vaccinations continue at the rate supposed come the end of March cases/hospitalisations/deaths will all drop off the cliff and we'll be in a much better place than we've been in since last February.

If that's true then restrictions will be lifted (probably partially at first) and employers will start calling employees back into work slowly.

So April is entirely do-able as being in a different world to where we currently are. I say doable but that's not guaranteed obvs. But I do feel Summer is looking good.

I sincerely hope you are right, but we have been here before and personally I am not very optimistic. My belief is that from April it will be tier 2 restrictions minimum carrying on throughout the summer and then you’re into the usual September uptick of respiratory disease again with mass testing still going on and we repeat again. Tier 2 is not an acceptable way of life for anyone and it certainly is not a viable way to run a business in the hospitality industry. Again I wish to be very wrong on that.

[anonymous-user]

Gadgetmac said:

I watched an Immunology/Staistics professor on the TV last night (might have been newsnight but can't remember) who says that if vaccinations continue at the rate supposed come the end of March cases/hospitalisations/deaths will all drop off the cliff and we'll be in a much better place than we've been in since last February.

If that's true then restrictions will be lifted (probably partially at first) and employers will start calling employees back into work slowly.

So April is entirely do-able as being in a different world to where we currently are. I say doable but that's not guaranteed obvs. But I do feel Summer is looking good.

Promising.

I thought that the key issue on relaxing restrictions once the rollout had got through the first 2 groups is whether or not the vaccine reduces transmission in the population, which they wouldn't know for 'some time'? If everyone is still being kept under restrictions (vaccinated included) I am wondering how they will know the numbers in any reasonable timeframe?

[RickSanchez]

markyb_lcy said:

jameswills said:

markyb_lcy said:

isaldiri said:

markyb_lcy said:

The govt will tighten the lockdown and restrictions purely for political reason so they can say they “acted when the numbers dictated it” and that they’re “following the science” and “making the right decisions at the right time”.

It's all driven by optics though. More people dying ie more tough talk on restrictions and general stupidity.

Which means unfortunately we are still going to be bombarded by the crap about more measures. ICU numbers continue to increase and so will deaths for a while yet.

The good news though is that we seem to have reduced the incidence of hospital caught infections. 15% ish now from over 20% in mid Dec.....

Yep. Our only option right now as lockdown sceptics is to grin and bear it. Even the small rebellion in parliament has crumbled. “No lockdown” is a very hard sell right now.

Good to know that the NHS has made some progress though.

I too am coming quickly to this conclusion now. The alternative and more pragmatic and positive view of trying to move forward has been out there for so long it is impossible to think it hasn’t been heard. Fighting against the inevitability of another year of restrictions I don’t think will do anyone any good. What I find quite sad though is many people who are not exactly in favour of lockdowns but are happy to “do their bit” really do believe that normality will resume within the next 2 months. They have completely forgotten that they have been sold that pup every month for the last 10. That will not change one bit come April.

Agreed, it’s going to be June if we are lucky and even then I think we will be stuck with “rule of six” and other curbs on our liberties. I would be surprised if we see nightclubs, gigs and festivals and other mass events until summer 2022 at the earliest.

This was SPI-B on resumption of large gatherings and mass events, from August, may provide a bit of insight into government thinking

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

“it is important to reopen with caution, taking particular account of the local context and levels of infection both in the locality and amongst those attending. It is also critical to have a comprehensive COVID Safety plan developed, validated and monitored by Health and Safety inspectors. For all these reasons, it may be premature to re-open in October and we therefore suggest delaying opening till a later date, such as after the New Year by which time it will be clear whether and how the infection rate can (or cannot) be managed successfully.”

[anonymous-user]

LeighW said:

Yeah, because every other measure so far has been...

I've waited 10 years to get a treatment that costs 1k a pop, still waiting jumped through every hoop going. I'm sure there are millions out there in similar boat.

So what has now changed we have unlimited budgets and money to offer everything to everyone. It is really weird times for anyone who has ever experience of the NHS world of treatments, especially cancer patients.

[dave_s13]

Pupbelly said:

Crumbs this thread moves quick!

There's some PhD research gold in these tomes for someone to perform an elaborate qualitative review on.

[CrutyRammers]

Elysium said:

RickSanchez said:

turbobloke said:

Thanks for reposting the link, interesting reading.

With respect, I find this extract the most telling when considering the implications of a survey which relies on people self-confessing as others take the fifth.

"But while the restrictions are being followed by most people, the study confirmed "rule-bending" remains as commonplace as throughout the pandemic, with a large minority adding their own "modifications" to the rules, especially when it comes to meeting other people and self-isolation time."

It only takes a small leak, while a large one could remain camouflaged in a survey depending on the age profile of respondents (even if the replies are honest). Some claim to have seen the gap.
https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/news/more-than-...

I agree, self reporting is always going to be flawed. I have posted this before in fact it seems to have some of the same names attached as the others. Most people think they comply more and others comply less

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2020/dec/majority-feel-...

Lead author, Dr Daisy Fancourt (UCL Epidemiology & Health Care) said: “It is concerning that people consistently assume they are obeying the rules more than the average person.

This is exactly the same with driving. We all think we are better drivers than everyone else.

Beat me to it. Yes, this is absolutely to be expected, it's how people consistently behave. Of course, if you're stuck in an academic ivory tower, "expected" becomes "a concerning finding".

[n3il123]

Am I correct in that if the number of "cases" is dropping (apparently the random number generator is showing this the last couple of days) that the number of deaths is likely to go up for a couple of days/ a week and then start to fall off too?

[JagLover]

isaldiri said:

Why would it? The seasons is still the same. The NW was getting colder all throughout. Without tier3 whenever before before lockdown2 why would cases have not continued for example? Your consistent burn becomes a big peak with added numbers over time until people get scared enough by numbers dying or media stories to start changing behaviour significantly enough on their own like march last year.

The only real difference is that the huge shopping rush/meeting up post lockdown 2 might have been more spread out. You still ultimately have your big winter problem over the period short of perhaps holding tier3 with more severe shop limits all throughout since November.

And even then perhaps it just simply wouldn't work anyway and you just push it back to early this year.

December is a busier month than November for infections for the other Coronaviruses and we have no reason to think this is any different.

Also you are ignoring the effect of Tier restrictions which seem, when combined with an element of voluntary social distancing, to have been sufficient to stop infections increasing in the more favourable conditions of late October.

You also cannot simply say that if November is busier the peak is larger because every infection earlier on in the year is one less person to infect later and there is an element of it burning itself out in many areas.

Edited by JagLover on Wednesday 13th January 12:36

[anonymous-user]

n3il123 said:

Am I correct in that if the number of "cases" is dropping (apparently the random number generator is showing this the last couple of days) that the number of deaths is likely to go up for a couple of days/ a week and then start to fall off too?

Why do you call it a random number generator ?

[sunbeam alpine]

croyde said:

Just had an email from my work about what they are doing to prevent Covid at work.

Usual weekly message about wearing masks in the building, no traveling abroad, bio fogging of offices??

But now an extra line.

They are now saying that we should wear masks outside. WTAF!!!

It's OK - they only sent that one to you 'cos you're ugly...

[EddieSteadyGo]

isaldiri said:

MDMetal said:

So once again lockdown has come a few days after a dip in infection rates. This is now 3 times.

Whats happening?

A) The virus has naturally peaked, our tolarance for cases seems to be aligned with when it peaks
B) The whispering of lockdown coming has helpped alter peoples behaviour.
C) The government are very very good at picking their start date.

C is scary, B sounds plausable but I don't believe any data backs it up leaving A?

B and a bit of tier4 effect applied on London/SE pre xmas that finally caught up after the big day itself.

I would go with option (D)

Infections were growing at a very fast rate in London (and elsewhere) in the run up to Christmas - after all, it was Tier 2 in London, which doesn't really interfere with much.

So they put in place Tier 4.

But there is a lag from when you apply a new restriction due to all the pending infections already in the system waiting to become cases.

So they announced the lockdown, rather than wait to see if Tier 4 worked. Which considering the hospital situation is possibly understandable.

And then infections started to come down in early Jan at a rate akin to R value of 0.9 based on the Zoe data.... which is exactly what you would expect from Tier 4 rules.

And now the government are going to say it was due to the lockdown. Even though the effects on infections are too early for lockdown to be the cause.

[cymatty]

New restrictions in Scotland announced.

bbc said:

New restrictions from Saturday to limit click & collect services to essential items only
Takeaway services to be restricted, with takeaways permitted from serving hatches only. (Customers NOT allowed inside)
From Saturday - outdoor alcohol drinking will NOT be allowed in level four areas
There will be a legal obligation on employers to allow working from home
Requirement for only "essential" work taking place in a private home (e.g. by tradespeople) will be put into law

Scotland hurting sole traders again, wonder if they will give them cash,

Edited by cymatty on Wednesday 13th January 12:54

[Blue62]

A large scale trial of Interferon starting today, if it’s effective then it will be a big step in reducing pressure on hospitals. I really think therapeutics has had to take a back seat while we put all our eggs in the vaccine basket, maybe it’s driven by costs but I’ve read about so many potential therapies (like bcg) that haven’t got off the ground. If we are looking for long term solutions that avoid stting down the economy and society, surely therapies are the way forward?

[Boringvolvodriver]

cymatty said:

bbc said:

New restrictions from Saturday to limit click & collect services to essential items only
Takeaway services to be restricted, with takeaways permitted from serving hatches only. (Customers NOT allowed inside)
From Saturday - outdoor alcohol drinking will NOT be allowed in level four areas
There will be a legal obligation on employers to allow working from home
Requirement for only "essential" work taking place in a private home (e.g. by tradespeople) will be put into law

Scotland hurting sole traders again, wonder if they will give them cash,

And of course it will make all the difference in controlling the virus

All of the actions are not about controlling the virus but more about controlling the population

[JagLover]

cymatty said:

bbc said:

New restrictions from Saturday to limit click & collect services to essential items only
Takeaway services to be restricted, with takeaways permitted from serving hatches only. (Customers NOT allowed inside)
From Saturday - outdoor alcohol drinking will NOT be allowed in level four areas
There will be a legal obligation on employers to allow working from home
Requirement for only "essential" work taking place in a private home (e.g. by tradespeople) will be put into law

Scotland hurting sole traders again, wonder if they will give them cash,

Oh goody

The government deciding which goods are "essential" or not for us. Also what work we want doing to our home is "essential"