The EU v UK vaccine tussle
Discussion
NextSlidePlease said:
jsf said:
paulrockliffe said:
Apparently the AZ delivery to the EU in the second quarter will only be 50% of the expected amount. Prediction is 130m of the 300m doses anticipated in Q1 and Q2
Fireworks or still too embarrassed after last time?
There is fFireworks or still too embarrassed after last time?
k all they can do about it. This is not like making soup.tty contract, vague and no enforcement if AZ didn't deliver. In contrast the UK contract was bulletproof with a much more robust protection of supplies, particularly from UK factories.The UK by throwing a s
t ton of money at AZ production owned a peice of their ass, where the EU contract said " pretty please can we have some vaccines"Or something along those lines.
I think this is one big reason the EU supplies have been hugely affected and the UK supply less so.
Edit: Here it is
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-difference...
It seems politico journalists have now actually read it...
contract said:
In the licence agreement between AstraZeneca and Oxford University Innovation Limited (the
“Head Licensor”) effective as of May 17, 2020 (the “Licence Agreement”), pursuant to which
AstraZeneca received an exclusive licence from the Head Licensor to use the Head Licensor’s
vaccine technology to research, develop, commercialise, sub-license and otherwise exploit a
vaccine for the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 in humans, the Parties stated their intent to enter
into an agreement pursuant to which the Purchaser would purchase and AstraZeneca would
supply on a doses of the Product to the Purchaser.
The Purchaser through a Central Government Body is a third party beneficiary of certain rights
granted in its favour under the Licence Agreement.
“Head Licensor”) effective as of May 17, 2020 (the “Licence Agreement”), pursuant to which
AstraZeneca received an exclusive licence from the Head Licensor to use the Head Licensor’s
vaccine technology to research, develop, commercialise, sub-license and otherwise exploit a
vaccine for the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 in humans, the Parties stated their intent to enter
into an agreement pursuant to which the Purchaser would purchase and AstraZeneca would
supply on a doses of the Product to the Purchaser.
The Purchaser through a Central Government Body is a third party beneficiary of certain rights
granted in its favour under the Licence Agreement.
CraigyMc said:
Wombat3 said:
NextSlidePlease said:
Has the "UK variant" got a foothold in any European country yet? It tore us a new one and the trend charts don't look good for many EU countries currently.
I just hope they don't see the same spike we did after Christmas. We all need to exit this mess together.
Yes, very much so, this is what we have been seeing , total cases staying at fairly static levels but switching between the original and new variants. Its now reached the point where total cases are starting to climb & its likely to do exactly what it did here. Its hard to tell exactly how many cases are new Variant because they don't do enough Genomic testing but where they have been doing it it was over 35% new Variant in France and it spreads MUCH faster. I just hope they don't see the same spike we did after Christmas. We all need to exit this mess together.
Case doubling rate is around 7-10 days (versus maybe 30 days for the original one IIRC)
3 weeks ago the incidence of B117 (the Kent variant) was 20%. 2 weeks ago it was 27%. I don't have more up to date data than that but you can see the direction it was going in.
I guess we are doing enough to understand what is going on though. Last data I saw from the US was they they were doing less than 1%. Estimated that new Variant in Florida was over 30% & they have been seen in nearly 40 States. - but they have done something like 60M vaccinations so they have a better chance of avoiding another spike I think. The next 2-3 weeks are going to be important on the other side of the Channel, if it takes off they are in trouble
What's the reason for Germany's low infection and deaths to date? I have lazily assumed they're a reasonably healthy population who do what they're told and they have a decent health service, on the flip side they're a transport hub for much of Europe. Early on they appeared to be able to test far more than we could which certainly must have helped but is there a widely accepted explanation for their out performance of everyone around them yet?
Biggy Stardust said:
CraigyMc said:
The incidence of C-19 per country today (new per day, per million population)
We include people who have had a positive test but been knocked down by a bus- maybe Germany records their figures differently.- Germany 60
- UK 157
Vanden Saab said:
NextSlidePlease said:
jsf said:
paulrockliffe said:
Apparently the AZ delivery to the EU in the second quarter will only be 50% of the expected amount. Prediction is 130m of the 300m doses anticipated in Q1 and Q2
Fireworks or still too embarrassed after last time?
There is fFireworks or still too embarrassed after last time?
k all they can do about it. This is not like making soup.tty contract, vague and no enforcement if AZ didn't deliver. In contrast the UK contract was bulletproof with a much more robust protection of supplies, particularly from UK factories.The UK by throwing a s
t ton of money at AZ production owned a peice of their ass, where the EU contract said " pretty please can we have some vaccines"Or something along those lines.
I think this is one big reason the EU supplies have been hugely affected and the UK supply less so.
Edit: Here it is
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-difference...
It seems politico journalists have now actually read it...
contract said:
In the licence agreement between AstraZeneca and Oxford University Innovation Limited (the
“Head Licensor”) effective as of May 17, 2020 (the “Licence Agreement”), pursuant to which
AstraZeneca received an exclusive licence from the Head Licensor to use the Head Licensor’s
vaccine technology to research, develop, commercialise, sub-license and otherwise exploit a
vaccine for the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 in humans, the Parties stated their intent to enter
into an agreement pursuant to which the Purchaser would purchase and AstraZeneca would
supply on a doses of the Product to the Purchaser.
The Purchaser through a Central Government Body is a third party beneficiary of certain rights
granted in its favour under the Licence Agreement.
“Head Licensor”) effective as of May 17, 2020 (the “Licence Agreement”), pursuant to which
AstraZeneca received an exclusive licence from the Head Licensor to use the Head Licensor’s
vaccine technology to research, develop, commercialise, sub-license and otherwise exploit a
vaccine for the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 in humans, the Parties stated their intent to enter
into an agreement pursuant to which the Purchaser would purchase and AstraZeneca would
supply on a doses of the Product to the Purchaser.
The Purchaser through a Central Government Body is a third party beneficiary of certain rights
granted in its favour under the Licence Agreement.
NRS said:
DeltonaS said:
The EU needs to vacinate the mojority of the population by the end of august.
If we assume all the rest of your post to be correct (which in itself is a huge question) then do you think we in the EU/EEA are on course to do that? So far in I think 3 months we're around 2% of people fully vaccinated here in Norway. What is your opinion about the 90-95% rate of protection from hospitalisation from 1 jab, seen in the real world in Scotland btw. Does it change your mind on how the EU should be vaccinating people?
Plus in the coming weeks and months more vaccins are getting on the market; EMA has given the Janssen(Johnson & Johnson) vaccine a conditional market access last week for example. They've been producing for months already. The Janssen vaccine by the way only needs 1 jab.
Given the latter If those numbers from Scotland can be scientifically proven, we could change the strategy. But only than IMO.
NRS said:
I'm not too sure the contract is the important thing here though. If you take it that they were signed approximately the same time then why would the UK be so much further ahead? Either all the (financial/manpower) resources were put into the UK production, or it's not the contracts and is something else. Which I would guess might well be the early investment in building production ASAP even before the contract was signed.
UK invested heavily in production facilities 6 months before the final contracts were signed for the supply, they made sure that during the initial March contracts that the production route to supply was nailed down. This is why the initial partner for the Oxford vaccine which the UK government controlled as part of their partnership with Oxford was switched from an EU based company to a UK based one. They saw the EU games that would happen well ahead of most. (apparently it was partially down to Hancock watching the film contagion which highlighted there would be an issue of vaccine nationalism, so they covered that off)The EU meanwhile treated it as a supply of normal goods situation where nailing down price was more important. That was not very smart.
NRS said:
Vanden Saab said:
NextSlidePlease said:
jsf said:
paulrockliffe said:
Apparently the AZ delivery to the EU in the second quarter will only be 50% of the expected amount. Prediction is 130m of the 300m doses anticipated in Q1 and Q2
Fireworks or still too embarrassed after last time?
There is fFireworks or still too embarrassed after last time?
k all they can do about it. This is not like making soup.tty contract, vague and no enforcement if AZ didn't deliver. In contrast the UK contract was bulletproof with a much more robust protection of supplies, particularly from UK factories.The UK by throwing a s
t ton of money at AZ production owned a peice of their ass, where the EU contract said " pretty please can we have some vaccines"Or something along those lines.
I think this is one big reason the EU supplies have been hugely affected and the UK supply less so.
Edit: Here it is
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-difference...
It seems politico journalists have now actually read it...
contract said:
In the licence agreement between AstraZeneca and Oxford University Innovation Limited (the
“Head Licensor”) effective as of May 17, 2020 (the “Licence Agreement”), pursuant to which
AstraZeneca received an exclusive licence from the Head Licensor to use the Head Licensor’s
vaccine technology to research, develop, commercialise, sub-license and otherwise exploit a
vaccine for the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 in humans, the Parties stated their intent to enter
into an agreement pursuant to which the Purchaser would purchase and AstraZeneca would
supply on a doses of the Product to the Purchaser.
The Purchaser through a Central Government Body is a third party beneficiary of certain rights
granted in its favour under the Licence Agreement.
“Head Licensor”) effective as of May 17, 2020 (the “Licence Agreement”), pursuant to which
AstraZeneca received an exclusive licence from the Head Licensor to use the Head Licensor’s
vaccine technology to research, develop, commercialise, sub-license and otherwise exploit a
vaccine for the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 in humans, the Parties stated their intent to enter
into an agreement pursuant to which the Purchaser would purchase and AstraZeneca would
supply on a doses of the Product to the Purchaser.
The Purchaser through a Central Government Body is a third party beneficiary of certain rights
granted in its favour under the Licence Agreement.
The UK Gov. had AZ production tied up as a requirement for giving them the £65 million and the licence to develop it.
DeltonaS said:
5 months should be enough, we don't need to vaccinate evreyone.
Plus in the coming weeks and months more vaccins are getting on the market; EMA has given the Janssen(Johnson & Johnson) vaccine a conditional market access last week for example. They've been producing for months already. The Janssen vaccine by the way only needs 1 jab.
Given the latter If those numbers from Scotland can be scientifically proven, we could change the strategy. But only than IMO.
You need over 70% vaccine/antibody in the general population to start getting the benefits of herd immunity.Plus in the coming weeks and months more vaccins are getting on the market; EMA has given the Janssen(Johnson & Johnson) vaccine a conditional market access last week for example. They've been producing for months already. The Janssen vaccine by the way only needs 1 jab.
Given the latter If those numbers from Scotland can be scientifically proven, we could change the strategy. But only than IMO.
NextSlidePlease said:
Has the "UK variant" got a foothold in any European country yet? It tore us a new one and the trend charts don't look good for many EU countries currently.
I just hope they don't see the same spike we did after Christmas. We all need to exit this mess together.
Yes, I looked into this tonight and I was quite surprised at the results to be honest. There is a Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.1.7) with some figures on it for prevalence. Obviously these are dependent on the sequencing carried out but:I just hope they don't see the same spike we did after Christmas. We all need to exit this mess together.
Slovakia - 74% of cases
Portugal - 40.9% of cases
Luxemburg - 35.2% of cases
Belgium - 25% of cases
Switzerland - Potentially though to be dominant strain now, over 60% (https://ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/variants/), this study also predicts it will become dominant (if it hasn't already) with a doubling rate every 8 days https://sciencetaskforce.ch/wissenschaftliches-upd...
German - 22.8% of cases
Italy - 18% of cases
Sweden - 27.3%
Murph7355 said:
RichFN2 said:
Without wishing to derail this thread but I do wonder if countries like Hungary that have an anti EU undertone in recent years might now push for leaving the EU. They were spitting feathers over the migrant crisis but the EU vaccine situation, having to turn to Russia & China for a better response and now being told to open their borders with a global pandemic on might be enough to get the momentum going.
I don't see it. 5bn Euros goes a long way.jsf said:
DeltonaS said:
5 months should be enough, we don't need to vaccinate evreyone.
Plus in the coming weeks and months more vaccins are getting on the market; EMA has given the Janssen(Johnson & Johnson) vaccine a conditional market access last week for example. They've been producing for months already. The Janssen vaccine by the way only needs 1 jab.
Given the latter If those numbers from Scotland can be scientifically proven, we could change the strategy. But only than IMO.
You need over 70% vaccine/antibody in the general population to start getting the benefits of herd immunity.Plus in the coming weeks and months more vaccins are getting on the market; EMA has given the Janssen(Johnson & Johnson) vaccine a conditional market access last week for example. They've been producing for months already. The Janssen vaccine by the way only needs 1 jab.
Given the latter If those numbers from Scotland can be scientifically proven, we could change the strategy. But only than IMO.
fblm said:
What's the reason for Germany's low infection and deaths to date? I have lazily assumed they're a reasonably healthy population who do what they're told and they have a decent health service, on the flip side they're a transport hub for much of Europe. Early on they appeared to be able to test far more than we could which certainly must have helped but is there a widely accepted explanation for their out performance of everyone around them yet?
Well placed in the initial wave to have limited infections early compared to their neighbours. With summer little to no infections after. in the second wave starting from autumn when everyone was broadly at the same point, they weren't really all that much better than their neighbours.
Pete102 said:
NextSlidePlease said:
Has the "UK variant" got a foothold in any European country yet? It tore us a new one and the trend charts don't look good for many EU countries currently.
Yes, I looked into this tonight and I was quite surprised at the results to be honest. There is a Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.1.7) with some figures on it for prevalence. Obviously these are dependent on the sequencing carried out but:Slovakia - 74% of cases
Portugal - 40.9% of cases
Luxemburg - 35.2% of cases
Belgium - 25% of cases
Switzerland - Potentially though to be dominant strain now, over 60% (https://ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/variants/), this study also predicts it will become dominant (if it hasn't already) with a doubling rate every 8 days https://sciencetaskforce.ch/wissenschaftliches-upd...
German - 22.8% of cases
Italy - 18% of cases
Sweden - 27.3%
isaldiri said:
fblm said:
What's the reason for Germany's low infection and deaths to date? I have lazily assumed they're a reasonably healthy population who do what they're told and they have a decent health service, on the flip side they're a transport hub for much of Europe. Early on they appeared to be able to test far more than we could which certainly must have helped but is there a widely accepted explanation for their out performance of everyone around them yet?
Well placed in the initial wave to have limited infections early compared to their neighbours. With summer little to no infections after. in the second wave starting from autumn when everyone was broadly at the same point, they weren't really all that much better than their neighbours.Pete102 said:
NextSlidePlease said:
Has the "UK variant" got a foothold in any European country yet? It tore us a new one and the trend charts don't look good for many EU countries currently.
Yes, I looked into this tonight and I was quite surprised at the results to be honest. There is a Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.1.7) with some figures on it for prevalence. Obviously these are dependent on the sequencing carried out but:Slovakia - 74% of cases
Portugal - 40.9% of cases
Luxemburg - 35.2% of cases
Belgium - 25% of cases
Switzerland - Potentially though to be dominant strain now, over 60% (https://ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/variants/), this study also predicts it will become dominant (if it hasn't already) with a doubling rate every 8 days https://sciencetaskforce.ch/wissenschaftliches-upd...
German - 22.8% of cases
Italy - 18% of cases
Sweden - 27.3%
Indeed topic of the day from Dr J Campbell : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OrgaMF5QpU
isaldiri said:
Does prevalence of B117 actually matter when that prevalence has been increasing despite overall numbers of cases falling quickly? That has been the case in Denmark where B117 proportions have increased but overall cases/infections has been steadily falling. Same as in the US and switzerland.....
I wondered exactly the same thing, Swiss numbers are very slowly dropping (just under 1k /day). I'm more interested in the UK's exile based on its scary variant, which is less of a concern now I've looked into it a little more. Wombat3 said:
Yes because it doubles much faster. B117 has been on manouevres for some weeks under the radar on the continent. Total case numbers in France (for example) have remained fairly static for a while which suggests it is close to the tipping point. This because while cases of the original strain are falling the new one is rising. As that starts to outstrip the first one then case numbers will start to rise because its much more infectious.
Indeed topic of the day from Dr J Campbell : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OrgaMF5QpU
Watched it, very interesting. Poses some worrying questions for our European neighbours and the states that are seeing reducing cases but increasing prevalence.Indeed topic of the day from Dr J Campbell : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OrgaMF5QpU
Pete102 said:
Watched it, very interesting. Poses some worrying questions for our European neighbours and the states that are seeing reducing cases but increasing prevalence.
It further backs up UK made the correct choice on extending the time between doses to get more people protected.Pete102 said:
Wombat3 said:
Yes because it doubles much faster. B117 has been on manouevres for some weeks under the radar on the continent. Total case numbers in France (for example) have remained fairly static for a while which suggests it is close to the tipping point. This because while cases of the original strain are falling the new one is rising. As that starts to outstrip the first one then case numbers will start to rise because its much more infectious.
Indeed topic of the day from Dr J Campbell : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OrgaMF5QpU
Watched it, very interesting. Poses some worrying questions for our European neighbours and the states that are seeing reducing cases but increasing prevalence.Indeed topic of the day from Dr J Campbell : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OrgaMF5QpU
I fear its going to get messy in Europe & they are too far behind the curve on the vaccines. Add in the vaccine scepticism created by the Germans & M Macron & it could well be a clusterf
k Edited by Wombat3 on Wednesday 24th February 00:15
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