CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)
Discussion
Smollet said:
birdcage said:
There is no chance that hospitals will now become overwhelmed therefore all bets should be off and life should return to normal.
Thats it
Hold your horses. Thats it
Covid-19: Another new variant added to UK watch list https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56284155
danllama said:
The more they bang on about variants the less people will care. Apathy is soaring. So let them carry on doing it.
My elderly neighbours (both had second vaccine dose) are still wearing masks in their car. They both also had covid with just a 'headache and anosmia' as the symptoms.isaldiri said:
well yes but to be fair, at the point people start to spontaneously change behaviour it probably does mean a whole heap of people have got infected already and you've got to still have used a heap of 'virus is killing everyone' messaging to get there. I suppose i can understand why it might be considered that waiting for infections to get to the level of end of March20 or end of Dec20 was rather too long as well if lots of restrictions ultimately still were needed.
Of course and I'm not suggesting that we should have just cracked on and let it rip - things like stopping large events, encouraging people to work from home where possible, putting an upper limit on gatherings and moving pubs to table service only I'd argue would have been just as effective. Sadly the need to "do something" has meant we've always taken it a stage further than needed. I still maintain our initial strategy that week before LD1 was the correct one, borne out by the fact its highly likely that infections peaked in that week. We were treated like adults rather than disease infested children - if we'd stuck with that this last year would have been much easier on all of us and we wouldn't be seeing reports like that one I posted from LSE.
All the typical 20:20 vision associated with hindsight, but I'm not seeing too much evidence to disprove it right now.
isaldiri said:
Graveworm said:
Which is not the measure for how interventions work. It's about by how much they reduce transmission. Putting a road safety measure in place that means one countries death rate, that was previously higher than the other fell to half of the other would not be measured by the area under the curve prior to it levelling off.
However if you want to compare directly. Overall North Dakota has a 10% lower death rate than the South.
Well you've just made a great pitch for much less restrictions. Historically we haven't given a damn about 20k plus excess deaths over winter. If lots of restrictions only reduces the deaths by 10% then for 10-15k extra deaths it's pretty bloody clear we shouldn't have bothered given the costs involved with said restrictions.However if you want to compare directly. Overall North Dakota has a 10% lower death rate than the South.
Pocty
bodhi said:
With the best will in the world (difficult to muster I know), this does show the problem with "following the science."It has taken "the science" a year to come up with this when many people were saying this from the start, only to be told their views were not backed up by evidence. Taking one piece of science in isolation is almost certain to be misleading because it necessarily looks at a very narrow subject in great detail at the exclusion of everything else. It also moves slowly and rightly waits until the evidence is in.
It should never be taken as everything there is to know, and should always be weighed against what we don't know. In this case we didn't knownthe enormous damage that the measures we chose would do. Nobody could hope to model them with any accuracy.
So you can see Johnson's dilemma. On the one hand a well respected scientist saying people are going to die and here's the graphs to prove it, on the other hand a few backbenchers saying hang on a minute, with some wooly notions of freedom and continuity.
However that is exactly why there was a detailed plan of how best to respond to such a scenario without making decisions in a fog of panic and fear. The science and common sense were in agreement that the latter was a terrible way to handle such a situation.
bodhi said:
Of course and I'm not suggesting that we should have just cracked on and let it rip - things like stopping large events, encouraging people to work from home where possible, putting an upper limit on gatherings and moving pubs to table service only I'd argue would have been just as effective. Sadly the need to "do something" has meant we've always taken it a stage further than needed.
I still maintain our initial strategy that week before LD1 was the correct one, borne out by the fact its highly likely that infections peaked in that week. We were treated like adults rather than disease infested children - if we'd stuck with that this last year would have been much easier on all of us and we wouldn't be seeing reports like that one I posted from LSE.
All the typical 20:20 vision associated with hindsight, but I'm not seeing too much evidence to disprove it right now.
For spring yes I'd agree for sure the initial strategy was likely to work but actually should have been implemented earlier as timing of restrictions in reducing large gatherings seems at that time to have been by quite a large margin the main factor in reducing infections.I still maintain our initial strategy that week before LD1 was the correct one, borne out by the fact its highly likely that infections peaked in that week. We were treated like adults rather than disease infested children - if we'd stuck with that this last year would have been much easier on all of us and we wouldn't be seeing reports like that one I posted from LSE.
All the typical 20:20 vision associated with hindsight, but I'm not seeing too much evidence to disprove it right now.
I'm a lot less convinced doing the same again would have worked over winter though. What ultimately happened in various european countries with differing restrictions suggests that in order to have kept infection levels reasonable a fairly high level of restrictions was always going to be required. Likely not the silly schools shut full stay at home nonsense but pretty significant restrictions nevertheless. By October it was pretty clear infections were going to increase significantly into winter but there simply seemed to be no other thought or plan on how to do anything else than the same crap that might have worked short term but was always acknowledged by even sage as nothing more than a short term stopgap.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
However that is exactly why there was a detailed plan of how best to respond to such a scenario without making decisions in a fog of panic and fear. The science and common sense were in agreement that the latter was a terrible way to handle such a situation.
This is the crux of the situation for meBefore China went all North Korea, started welding people into their flats and posting fake videos online of people dropping dead in the street, the WHO guidelines and the UKs own pandemic response plan didn't include lockdowns. It was accepted that these did more harm than good and there were better options to reduce transmission in the face of a contagious respiratory pathogen.
That all got thrown out the window though as social and traditional media fuelled the fire and the Western World followed Chinas example in a fog of panic and fear. Mostly driven by Karen's and Dave's on the internet who were suddenly PHD qualified Epidemiologists and a select number of "medical professionals" who used panic and fear to drive their following (and thus income) up (e.g. Eric Ding)
The politicians just followed the masses to win points and couldn't see through the fog. Absolute blinder played by China.
China 1 - 0 Western Capitalist Democracies
Alex_6n2 said:
This is the crux of the situation for me
Before China went all North Korea, started welding people into their flats and posting fake videos online of people dropping dead in the street, the WHO guidelines and the UKs own pandemic response plan didn't include lockdowns. It was accepted that these did more harm than good and there were better options to reduce transmission in the face of a contagious respiratory pathogen.
That all got thrown out the window though as social and traditional media fuelled the fire and the Western World followed Chinas example in a fog of panic and fear. Mostly driven by Karen's and Dave's on the internet who were suddenly PHD qualified Epidemiologists and a select number of "medical professionals" who used panic and fear to drive their following (and thus income) up (e.g. Eric Ding)
The politicians just followed the masses to win points and couldn't see through the fog. Absolute blinder played by China.
China 1 - 0 Western Capitalist Democracies
Yep, advanced their economic rise to power by a decade.Before China went all North Korea, started welding people into their flats and posting fake videos online of people dropping dead in the street, the WHO guidelines and the UKs own pandemic response plan didn't include lockdowns. It was accepted that these did more harm than good and there were better options to reduce transmission in the face of a contagious respiratory pathogen.
That all got thrown out the window though as social and traditional media fuelled the fire and the Western World followed Chinas example in a fog of panic and fear. Mostly driven by Karen's and Dave's on the internet who were suddenly PHD qualified Epidemiologists and a select number of "medical professionals" who used panic and fear to drive their following (and thus income) up (e.g. Eric Ding)
The politicians just followed the masses to win points and couldn't see through the fog. Absolute blinder played by China.
China 1 - 0 Western Capitalist Democracies
981C said:
danllama said:
The more they bang on about variants the less people will care. Apathy is soaring. So let them carry on doing it.
My elderly neighbours (both had second vaccine dose) are still wearing masks in their car. They both also had covid with just a 'headache and anosmia' as the symptoms.danllama said:
981C said:
danllama said:
The more they bang on about variants the less people will care. Apathy is soaring. So let them carry on doing it.
My elderly neighbours (both had second vaccine dose) are still wearing masks in their car. They both also had covid with just a 'headache and anosmia' as the symptoms.I think it’s unfair to call them stupid .... though I don’t agree with the masks in cars
Otispunkmeyer said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/commen...
And we're a nation of fatties like the US.
The irony of shutting down many healthy activities like gyms and pools. Eat out to help out (where was workout to help out?) And the noticeable increase in ads like the KFC one, where you don't even have to lift your greasy arse out of the divot in your sofa to get a nice bucket of heart attack direct to gob.
We've shut down the country for a virus that is almost innocuous to anyone under 65. Yet they're quite happy to have over a 1/3 of people eating their way to an early grave.
People have been pointing out for months that the much lower death rates in places like Japan, despite their very elderly populations, must have some connection to lifestyle factors.And we're a nation of fatties like the US.
The irony of shutting down many healthy activities like gyms and pools. Eat out to help out (where was workout to help out?) And the noticeable increase in ads like the KFC one, where you don't even have to lift your greasy arse out of the divot in your sofa to get a nice bucket of heart attack direct to gob.
We've shut down the country for a virus that is almost innocuous to anyone under 65. Yet they're quite happy to have over a 1/3 of people eating their way to an early grave.
It is not just that the people there are not nearly as fat they are also eating more healthily.
None of this has been of the slightest interest to those advising the government as it doesn't involve lockdown. In fact if they had admitted it then they would have to admit that lockdown has made it worse, by limiting opportunities for exercise and for human interaction out in the fresh air and sunshine.
CAH706 said:
danllama said:
981C said:
danllama said:
The more they bang on about variants the less people will care. Apathy is soaring. So let them carry on doing it.
My elderly neighbours (both had second vaccine dose) are still wearing masks in their car. They both also had covid with just a 'headache and anosmia' as the symptoms.I think it’s unfair to call them stupid .... though I don’t agree with the masks in cars
danllama said:
CAH706 said:
danllama said:
981C said:
danllama said:
The more they bang on about variants the less people will care. Apathy is soaring. So let them carry on doing it.
My elderly neighbours (both had second vaccine dose) are still wearing masks in their car. They both also had covid with just a 'headache and anosmia' as the symptoms.I think it’s unfair to call them stupid .... though I don’t agree with the masks in cars
That said, I do see why and how old people (and people in general) act like they do and it’s not down to stupidity.
Old people are particularly vulnerable to this kind of messaging. They even still think it’s BT ringing over their faulty broadband as it’s BT right!
danllama said:
How do you get to that age in life and not have a shred of critical thinking in you? I'm sure they're lovely people and I'm furious at the government for terrifying them to such an extent, so let's just give them the benefit of the doubt. In some ways I envy their utter trust in these scum bags.
It is surprisingly easy. The older you get the harder it is to actually care enough to make your own decision. When you are young you have time to recover from a bad choice ("I wish I hadn't taken out a 3 year PCP for this Golf R, boy is it boring"). Get to a certain age and there is comfort in routine and having someone else do the thinking for you, never questioning it ("I'm glad that the nice salesman told us a Kia Sorento was the ideal car, it's lovely")Plus it is important to remember that someone in their 80s will have been at work during an era where deference to your superiors was a given and many more jobs than today were of the repetitive non-thinking type that have since been either automated or moved offshore. So an 80 year old who never enjoyed thinking for them self could have led a happy and productive life without ever needing to do anything other than follow simple instructions.
bodhi said:
Will probably be taken down/ deplatformed soon.Boringvolvodriver said:
bodhi said:
Not sure if anyone remembers last year when the Great Barrington Declaration was made, one of the reasons it was panned was because it was funded by the AEIR, a libertarian think tank in the US? Well someone's taken the time to do the same exercise for the Jon Snow Memorandum.
https://twitter.com/Kevin_McKernan/status/13675399...
See if you can guess which ex Computer Software Salesman all roads lead back to....
Interesting although I still can’t quite work out what is in it for Mr Gates when most of the monies get paid out through his Foundation. https://twitter.com/Kevin_McKernan/status/13675399...
See if you can guess which ex Computer Software Salesman all roads lead back to....
bodhi said:
LSE said:
and it is expected that deaths in the 85+ age group would have occurred later in the year, saving life months not years.
and I thought they had an average of 14 years left 
R-t6t6s said:
danllama said:
R-t6t6s said:
danllama said:
R-t6t6s said:
Surely if 52% of the population want something, then they have to get it and we don't worry about the minority as they are moaners? That's what I heard anyway, or was that another topic....
Have we had a vote on lockdowns and restrictions? I must have missed it. 
ks. If we had a nationwide referendum on this issue beforehand it would never have happened. Who the hell would vote for stripping away rights and livelihoods? That's why this appalling government have had to coerce and legislate us into submission. It's not a suggestion that lockdowns are anti democratic, they intrinsically are! At the heart of democracy is freedom.So your view of a democracy is that we are free to do as we please, or do you agree that there are normally limits imposed on that freedom?
They then invite those that they believe will give the right answer.
If we take anything from this it should be that sweeping emergency powers should be ratified by a referendum as soon as possible.
Anything else is undemocratic.
When we vote in a government we know what their stated aims are and more importantly what statutory powers they have, any alteration to this should require public ratification.
bodhi said:
I believe they got round this 'awkwardness' by Thus the cure isn't worse than the disease. We've modelled it. Honest.
stitched said:
R-t6t6s said:
danllama said:
R-t6t6s said:
danllama said:
R-t6t6s said:
Surely if 52% of the population want something, then they have to get it and we don't worry about the minority as they are moaners? That's what I heard anyway, or was that another topic....
Have we had a vote on lockdowns and restrictions? I must have missed it. ks. If we had a nationwide referendum on this issue beforehand it would never have happened. Who the hell would vote for stripping away rights and livelihoods? That's why this appalling government have had to coerce and legislate us into submission. It's not a suggestion that lockdowns are anti democratic, they intrinsically are! At the heart of democracy is freedom.So your view of a democracy is that we are free to do as we please, or do you agree that there are normally limits imposed on that freedom?
If we take anything from this it should be that sweeping emergency powers should be ratified by a referendum as soon as possible.
Anything else is undemocratic.
When we vote in a government we know what their stated aims are and more importantly what statutory powers they have, any alteration to this should require public ratification.
Edited by johnboy1975 on Friday 5th March 08:26
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