CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)

[Alucidnation]

Carl_Manchester said:

Garvin said:

grumbledoak said:

So the carrot is "Just ten months" now?

We'll be in lockdown next winter.

Once the hospitalisations and deaths have reduced to well below the danger of overwhelming the NHS and vaccinations of all over 50s has been completed I cannot see the general public standing for continued lockdown. I think the pressure on the government to significantly lift restrictions will become irresistible by April at the latest.

If the vaccines are as good as they say they are and there is no ‘monster’ evolution of the virus then we will surely be back to some semblance of normality by mid year.

The pressure on the government will then switch to keeping the vaccination programme going at pace and to fund vaccine research etc to keep on top of new strains of the virus.

The older generation don’t like being told what to do.

Apart from the many millions who have now had the vaccination.

[EddieSteadyGo]

RSbandit said:

Just watching the film 'Outbreak'...it's just amateur hour tbh rule of six and pubs closing at 10pm would have knocked the Motaba virus on its arse...pandemic response and suppression has come a long way in 26 yrs ??

Ah, so I'm watching this movie this morning (not much else to do). I tend to avoid 'disaster' type movies as they don't usually seem entertaining. But I can see now it has all of the elements of our covid response;

i) Brave, dedicated public health experts working tirelessly to protect the public and trying to speak truth to power
ii) Mutations of the virus forming into a new, more transmissible strains
iii) Corrupt officials trying to cover up for previous mistakes
iv) Ignorant peasants (that's us) making a lot of noise, either making things worse or just getting in the way

[df76]

ucb said:

320d is all you need said:

ucb said:

Our hospital admissions have fallen quite markedly over the past 3 weeks (done to 10 or so a day from 30+) and our total number of COVID patients on ITU have halved although I can’t tell you whether that’s through survival or death.

99.6% of them survived

My death/survival quote was in reference to ITU. During the initial lockdown period in 2020, I would estimate that the ITU death rate for ventialated patients within our Trust was approximately 90%. I haven't had any information for the current lockdownperiod

Quite a scary figure that. Can only hope that the latest numbers have improved. Significant respect to those having to deal with it.

[redrabbit]

Carl_Manchester said:

Garvin said:

grumbledoak said:

So the carrot is "Just ten months" now?

We'll be in lockdown next winter.

The older generation don’t like being told what to do.

Once that lot are vaccinated it will be them Instagramming from a Kareoke pub in Spain with hashtag blessed.

I'd normally agree with you, but in this case, old folks' distaste for anything 'the younger generation' (anyone under 60, basically) does that they disapprove of, or can no longer do themselves, has combined with utter terror of not being guaranteed to be alive beyond 100. I doubt it'll be the oldies that will be first to the barricades; they only really rail against authority when they think it's foreigners giving the orders.

This is broadly the line of discussion I'll be pursuing with my 85 year old father later today

[Deep Thought]

Alucidnation said:

Carl_Manchester said:

Garvin said:

grumbledoak said:

So the carrot is "Just ten months" now?

We'll be in lockdown next winter.

Once the hospitalisations and deaths have reduced to well below the danger of overwhelming the NHS and vaccinations of all over 50s has been completed I cannot see the general public standing for continued lockdown. I think the pressure on the government to significantly lift restrictions will become irresistible by April at the latest.

If the vaccines are as good as they say they are and there is no ‘monster’ evolution of the virus then we will surely be back to some semblance of normality by mid year.

The pressure on the government will then switch to keeping the vaccination programme going at pace and to fund vaccine research etc to keep on top of new strains of the virus.

The older generation don’t like being told what to do.

Apart from the many millions who have now had the vaccination.

You're implying people are only getting vaccinated because they were told to, not because they see a benefit?

[Blue62]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I was told that the recently publicised move to reform was due in large part to the behaviour of individual Trusts at the early stage of the outbreak. Certain hospitals were allocated as ‘dirty’ to take all COVID patients, pushing non covid cases out to other regional facilities. Apparently the idea was dismissed by Trust managers, who under the current system had the authority to do so.

This is purely anecdotal, but within that particular zoom chat it was also suggested that our T&T is only workable with case numbers below 10,000, which may explain Jeremy Hunt’s comments last week.

[Vickers_VC10]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Elephant in the room being if I was suitably monied I'd steer clear of the NHS for most of my life.

[johnboy1975]

AZ trial on kids as young as 6

http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-oxford-vaccine-...

Must remember to check back in 12 years time and see how the poor buggers did. Hopefully they will be OK.

At least we might know by 2033.......because surely they're not going to consider 6 months being a suitable time frame to evaluate the long term risks, and then jab all the kids in the autumn?

said:

Perfectly possible that we will have a licensed vaccine for kids by the end of the year

[JagLover]

Update on the Israeli situation. New hospitalisations in over 60s have dropped below under 60s

https://unherd.com/thepost/are-we-seeing-a-vaccine...

[V1nce Fox]

Just watched Sir Charles Walker’s C4 interview with Murty. He’s not playing at it, is he?

[scottyp123]

johnboy1975 said:

AZ trial on kids as young as 6

http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-oxford-vaccine-...

Must remember to check back in 12 years time and see how the poor buggers did. Hopefully they will be OK.

At least we might know by 2033.......because surely they're not going to consider 6 months being a suitable time frame to evaluate the long term risks, and then jab all the kids in the autumn?

said:

Perfectly possible that we will have a licensed vaccine for kids by the end of the year

Who would be daft enough to volunteer their kids for this sort of experiment? I'll bet the trial kids come from some 3rd world sthole where they sell their kids for drugs.

As it appears that covid doesn't affect kids and the vaccine is to protect others (just like masks) wouldn't any parent allowing a kid to be vaccinated be pretty much saying that they care more about others than their own children.

[Brave Fart]

Brainpox said:

A few weeks ago, a 10 year old girl near where I live died of covid. Obviously she would not have qualified for the vaccine.
You can imagine the headlines if what they are proposing was to go ahead.
Long covid is still a serious issue, too. I work with a few people who had a mild illness, but the brain fog and fatigue have persisted for months.

Assuming you're telling the truth, you're still selecting a tiny minority to support your point. Which seems to be the perspective of a zero covid zealot. We cannot continue to cancel non-covid healthcare, deny children their education and destroy the economy on the basis of a few outlier cases. It makes no sense.
You say people should see the bigger picture. I'd suggest it is you who is NOT doing this.
The bigger picture is that causing massive harm to ourselves for a miniscule threat is stupid. Surely you can see this?
Oh, and the moment you state that people want restrictions lifted just so they can "go to the pub" you lose any credibility. It's such a lazy, foolish thing to say, and an insult to those who've suffered hugely over the last few months. Bigger picture, much?

[foreright]

Brave Fart said:

Assuming you're telling the truth, you're still selecting a tiny minority to support your point. Which seems to be the perspective of a zero covid zealot. We cannot continue to cancel non-covid healthcare, deny children their education and destroy the economy on the basis of a few outlier cases. It makes no sense.
You say people should see the bigger picture. I'd suggest it is you who is NOT doing this.
The bigger picture is that causing massive harm to ourselves for a miniscule threat is stupid. Surely you can see this?
Oh, and the moment you state that people want restrictions lifted just so they can "go to the pub" you lose any credibility. It's such a lazy, foolish thing to say, and an insult to those who've suffered hugely over the last few months. Bigger picture, much?

Can’t disagree with any of that.

[Alucidnation]

Deep Thought said:

Alucidnation said:

Carl_Manchester said:

Garvin said:

grumbledoak said:

So the carrot is "Just ten months" now?

We'll be in lockdown next winter.

Once the hospitalisations and deaths have reduced to well below the danger of overwhelming the NHS and vaccinations of all over 50s has been completed I cannot see the general public standing for continued lockdown. I think the pressure on the government to significantly lift restrictions will become irresistible by April at the latest.

If the vaccines are as good as they say they are and there is no ‘monster’ evolution of the virus then we will surely be back to some semblance of normality by mid year.

The pressure on the government will then switch to keeping the vaccination programme going at pace and to fund vaccine research etc to keep on top of new strains of the virus.

The older generation don’t like being told what to do.

Apart from the many millions who have now had the vaccination.

You're implying people are only getting vaccinated because they were told to, not because they see a benefit?

Whichever way you see it, 9 out of 10 take up is pretty damn good IMO.

[baptistsan]

Douglas Quaid said:

Brainpox said:

I think people commenting about delayed diagnoses/poor healthcare need to realise if the restrictions weren't in place, the hospitals would be full and the same would apply. Probably even more so as emergency departments would be closing. At least for the most part, if you have been critically unwell, there has been capacity in the system to sort you out.

Locally, at the peak last month, 40% of the patients in the general hospitals had COVID, and most were in primarily because of COVID complications. Some hospitals were over 60%. Seasonal flu doesn't account for that many patients normally.

It might affect younger people less severely but there are some where it isn't the case. A 10 year old girl died of COVID nearby a few weeks ago. You can't gamble with people's lives because you're desperate to get down the pub.

I am happy that I've maintained a sense of normality through this in that I still go to work. But I spend half my day in close contact with COVID patients. I haven't caught it yet which leads me, at times, to wonder how the fk everyone else is.

Dominic Cummings' eye exam was a really stupid mistake. If it wasn't for that I'm sure compliance would have been much better.

Why is it that people that enjoy restrictions always say that the people that don’t just want life back to normal so they can go ‘to the pub’? I don’t give a st about the pub, I enjoy them but far far more important to me are the people I know that are suffering mentally through isolation.

I have friends I haven’t seen for nearly a year as they’re terrified, I have self employed family members that have lost their businesses and have no way of earning money, some of my family members are really suffering mentally in various ways. Why is it that you people who want everyone locked up forever think the pub is all anyone is interested in? fk off.

Edited by Douglas Quaid on Saturday 13th February 07:16

Well bloody said.

I want life back to normal for my 14 year old. She is suffering through no fault of her own. And I do not give a st if I'm a selfish tt. Her and millions like her are being damaged in ways we don't yet even realize. But no biggie right?

[Blue62]

Brave Fart said:

Assuming you're telling the truth, you're still selecting a tiny minority to support your point. Which seems to be the perspective of a zero covid zealot. We cannot continue to cancel non-covid healthcare, deny children their education and destroy the economy on the basis of a few outlier cases. It makes no sense.
You say people should see the bigger picture. I'd suggest it is you who is NOT doing this.
The bigger picture is that causing massive harm to ourselves for a miniscule threat is stupid. Surely you can see this?
Oh, and the moment you state that people want restrictions lifted just so they can "go to the pub" you lose any credibility. It's such a lazy, foolish thing to say, and an insult to those who've suffered hugely over the last few months. Bigger picture, much?

I think Hancock’s statement about therapeutics and covid becoming like flu are an admission that zero covid is not achievable. I saw a quote from a virologist who suggested in rather stark language that the new variants are more transmissible and more deadly. I’m struggling to find evidence for the latter, anyone else care to comment on the veracity of that claim?

[isaldiri]

df76 said:

ucb said:

320d is all you need said:

ucb said:

Our hospital admissions have fallen quite markedly over the past 3 weeks (done to 10 or so a day from 30+) and our total number of COVID patients on ITU have halved although I can’t tell you whether that’s through survival or death.

99.6% of them survived

My death/survival quote was in reference to ITU. During the initial lockdown period in 2020, I would estimate that the ITU death rate for ventialated patients within our Trust was approximately 90%. I haven't had any information for the current lockdownperiod

Quite a scary figure that. Can only hope that the latest numbers have improved. Significant respect to those having to deal with it.

I'd suggest it's more a case that his estimate is a little out. Make that more than a little. National averages for mortality of ventilated patients is high but nowhere near 90% in lockdown 1. If it is the case, either his trust is ventilating people who can't cope with it and killing them as a result or they are really exceedingly unlucky and therefore unrepresentative.

And ICU deaths overall are around 10% iirc of overall deaths. Not many people actually even entered ICU if older than 70. I'd save my sympathy for some of the hospital staff providing end of life care where patients had been left to essentially die as they are deemed unsuitable for ICU (whether or not that includes ventilation) treatment.

ICU staff are by nature of their job used to seeing death as a good number who do end up there typically die as it is called 'intensive treatment ' for good reason. It's probably a lot more traumatic for some of the general admission staff.

ucb said:

The private sector is ill-equipped to manage the vast majority of our Trusts NHS workload. It lacks the specialist knowledge, equipment, & space for any of my theatre work

Disagree. The private sector isn't equipped to carry out major surgery where ICU capability is required. They are far better and more efficient at handling the vast majority of ordinary lower order treatments and diagnosis that the NHS has been delaying and refusing to pass on to the private sector while the latter remains empty by NHS own decision.

Edited by isaldiri on Saturday 13th February 11:21

[baptistsan]

Brainpox said:

Douglas Quaid said:

Why is it that people that enjoy restrictions always say that the people that don’t just want life back to normal so they can go ‘to the pub’? I don’t give a st about the pub, I enjoy them but far far more important to me are the people I know that are suffering mentally through isolation. I have friends I haven’t seen for nearly a year as they’re terrified, I have self employed family members that have lost their businesses and have no way of earning money, some of my family members are really suffering mentally in various ways. Why is it that you people who want everyone locked up forever think the pub is all anyone is interested in? fk off.

Who said I'm enjoying it? fk off yourself. The answer isn't to let everyone run wild and not give a st. Keeping the health service running is more of a priority don't you think? Think bigger picture.

Yes indeed, think bigger picture. Not short term. What do you imagine the mental health crisis is going to be like just a little further down the road? The NHS in part has nobody to blame but itself. Read what Tonker posted above. You can deny it all you like, but my understanding is he is someone who was closely involved so has better insight than either you or I.

[anonymous-user]

Alucidnation said:

Deep Thought said:

Alucidnation said:

Carl_Manchester said:

Garvin said:

grumbledoak said:

So the carrot is "Just ten months" now?

We'll be in lockdown next winter.

Once the hospitalisations and deaths have reduced to well below the danger of overwhelming the NHS and vaccinations of all over 50s has been completed I cannot see the general public standing for continued lockdown. I think the pressure on the government to significantly lift restrictions will become irresistible by April at the latest.

If the vaccines are as good as they say they are and there is no ‘monster’ evolution of the virus then we will surely be back to some semblance of normality by mid year.

The pressure on the government will then switch to keeping the vaccination programme going at pace and to fund vaccine research etc to keep on top of new strains of the virus.

The older generation don’t like being told what to do.

Apart from the many millions who have now had the vaccination.

You're implying people are only getting vaccinated because they were told to, not because they see a benefit?

Whichever way you see it, 9 out of 10 take up is pretty damn good IMO.

Typical trolling again Alucid. You post in an attempt to provocate and then back down in an instant when your post is confronted with logic.

How many posters have you reported to the mods this morning? Got to keep your record up.

[baptistsan]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

You and me both.