CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)
Discussion
Pit Pony said:
.yes lots of people are dying, lots of people are affected by thier loss of freedoms, including me. Yes restrictions have and.impactnon jobs and the economy. I don't have the answer.
I think somewhere in hindsight, this could have been a less severe problem, and could have been solved alot earlier, but it wasn't.
I think most of the (few?) sane people left here can agree with the first paragraph there. I'm a lot less certain the second necessarily was the case though even with hindsight. Perhaps there never was a viable easy option and whatever our wish that a nice simple solution it simply didn't exist, especially in a way that in Feb20 we would have viewed as compatible with the way we had lived generally.I think somewhere in hindsight, this could have been a less severe problem, and could have been solved alot earlier, but it wasn't.
People tend to judge outcome too much when considering whether doing something was the 'right' thing. Admittedly for something like this getting the right outcome would have been more important as it's a very irregular event so you don't have repeatability to get eventual outcome in your favour by doing the right thing.
We are essentially near the end of this current outbreak anyway, at least medically with the vaccines. I'm considerably more worried what the response will be (in terms of society level effects rather than medical) on the next emergence of an infectious pathogen given all that has happened tbh......
My 84 year old neighbour took a fall out on a walk yesterday, knocked unconscious and (as it turns out) dislocated her shoulder amongst other minor injuries.
Temperature only briefly crept above freezing yesterday, she was led on the pavement for over 2 hours waiting for an ambulance (she was found very quickly, the person who found her went door knocking for blankets etc.)
Hospital discharged her at 2am as they needed space, her daughter had to immediately travel over 100 miles to collect her.
Similarly a work colleagues friend had a mild heart attack, hit his head and fell unconscious, 3 hours before anyone arrived.
Biggest problem here is they've closed all the local A&Es and MIUs in the past few years, it's a 45 minute trip into the nearest city to get any sort of emergency care. Obviously COVID has massively reduced the capacity as well.
Temperature only briefly crept above freezing yesterday, she was led on the pavement for over 2 hours waiting for an ambulance (she was found very quickly, the person who found her went door knocking for blankets etc.)
Hospital discharged her at 2am as they needed space, her daughter had to immediately travel over 100 miles to collect her.
Similarly a work colleagues friend had a mild heart attack, hit his head and fell unconscious, 3 hours before anyone arrived.
Biggest problem here is they've closed all the local A&Es and MIUs in the past few years, it's a 45 minute trip into the nearest city to get any sort of emergency care. Obviously COVID has massively reduced the capacity as well.
scottyp123 said:
johnboy1975 said:
AZ trial on kids as young as 6
http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-oxford-vaccine-...
Must remember to check back in 12 years time and see how the poor buggers did. Hopefully they will be OK.
At least we might know by 2033.......because surely they're not going to consider 6 months being a suitable time frame to evaluate the long term risks, and then jab all the kids in the autumn?
Who would be daft enough to volunteer their kids for this sort of experiment? I'll bet the trial kids come from some 3rd world shttp://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-oxford-vaccine-...
Must remember to check back in 12 years time and see how the poor buggers did. Hopefully they will be OK.
At least we might know by 2033.......because surely they're not going to consider 6 months being a suitable time frame to evaluate the long term risks, and then jab all the kids in the autumn?
said:
Perfectly possible that we will have a licensed vaccine for kids by the end of the year
thole where they sell their kids for drugs.As it appears that covid doesn't affect kids and the vaccine is to protect others (just like masks) wouldn't any parent allowing a kid to be vaccinated be pretty much saying that they care more about others than their own children.
I note that once again, the finger of blame is pointed at the wrong thing:
article said:
Rinn Song, paediatrician and clinician-scientist at the Oxford Vaccine Group, said: "The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound negative impact on the education, social development and emotional well-being of children and adolescents, beyond illness and rare severe disease presentations.
"It is therefore important to collect data on the safety and the immune response to our coronavirus vaccine in these age groups, so that they could potentially benefit from inclusion in vaccination programs in the near future."
The response to the Covid-19 pandemic is the issue."It is therefore important to collect data on the safety and the immune response to our coronavirus vaccine in these age groups, so that they could potentially benefit from inclusion in vaccination programs in the near future."
n3il123 said:
RS.Matt said:
Show them you love them, get them quarantined for 10 days...But, you know, as long as these poor domestic abuse victims don't catch covid...
isaldiri said:
I think most of the (few?) sane people left here can agree with the first paragraph there. I'm a lot less certain the second necessarily was the case though even with hindsight. Perhaps there never was a viable easy option and whatever our wish that a nice simple solution it simply didn't exist, especially in a way that in Feb20 we would have viewed as compatible with the way we had lived generally.
People tend to judge outcome too much when considering whether doing something was the 'right' thing. Admittedly for something like this getting the right outcome would have been more important as it's a very irregular event so you don't have repeatability to get eventual outcome in your favour by doing the right thing.
We are essentially near the end of this current outbreak anyway, at least medically with the vaccines. I'm considerably more worried what the response will be (in terms of society level effects rather than medical) on the next emergence of an infectious pathogen given all that has happened tbh......
Interestingly Joel Smalley is in the process of investigating what would have happened without the restrictions - still awaiting his full report and his methodology, but initial graphs look interesting. People tend to judge outcome too much when considering whether doing something was the 'right' thing. Admittedly for something like this getting the right outcome would have been more important as it's a very irregular event so you don't have repeatability to get eventual outcome in your favour by doing the right thing.
We are essentially near the end of this current outbreak anyway, at least medically with the vaccines. I'm considerably more worried what the response will be (in terms of society level effects rather than medical) on the next emergence of an infectious pathogen given all that has happened tbh......
https://twitter.com/RealJoelSmalley?s=09
Smalley is part of PANDA and HART so likely to be firmly on the "open up" side of things, but should be an interesting counter to Prof Dooms 510k deaths of we do nothing work.
From his numbers it does seem like the restrictions had an effect, but looks like the sort of effect which could be easily wiped out by all the deaths caused by missed treatments, suicide etc.
BBC story on why childbearing age women, who are unlikely to suffer ill health from Covid, should get vaccinated 
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56012529
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56012529
BBC said:
Even something as simple as an over-the-counter painkiller carries a tiny risk of ulcers and internal bleeding. But the risk for most people is so small when used correctly, that it is outweighed by the benefits of treating relatively mild pain.
And the benefits of preventing an illness that we know can be life-threatening have been judged to be much greater than any theoretical risk of vaccination.
And the benefits of preventing an illness that we know can be life-threatening have been judged to be much greater than any theoretical risk of vaccination.
There appears to be some optimism coming from HMG in so much accepting the virus is here to stay and best we learn to live with it as we do with flu. I wonder how long this will last until some pipsqueak from SAGE launches a doomsday scenario that the media will grasp with rabid enthusiasm and Halfcock will agree we cannot reduce restrictions which tbh they probably could next week without the the significant decline in cases, hospitalisations and deaths being affected.
Smollet said:
There appears to be some optimism coming from HMG in so much accepting the virus is here to stay and best we learn to live with it as we do with flu. I wonder how long this will last until some pipsqueak from SAGE launches a doomsday scenario that the media will grasp with rabid enthusiasm and Halfcock will agree we cannot reduce restrictions which tbh they probably could next week without the the significant decline in cases, hospitalisations and deaths being affected.
All I am hoping for is another award winning display of Hancocks 'crying' (or whatever the fk that was...) on national television.It was so emotional and moving. I can just picture the lockdown enthusiasts on here with tears in their eyes watching their glorious leader show such touching, genuine and amazing scenes of emotion for our great nation.
Praise Hancock, and praise lockdown. It's no biggie.
Lest we forget... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnV9LumDxZk
RSTurboPaul said:
BBC story on why childbearing age women, who are unlikely to suffer ill health from Covid, should get vaccinated
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56012529
The BBC need to keep their noses out of things they don’t understand https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56012529
BBC said:
Even something as simple as an over-the-counter painkiller carries a tiny risk of ulcers and internal bleeding. But the risk for most people is so small when used correctly, that it is outweighed by the benefits of treating relatively mild pain.
And the benefits of preventing an illness that we know can be life-threatening have been judged to be much greater than any theoretical risk of vaccination.
And the benefits of preventing an illness that we know can be life-threatening have been judged to be much greater than any theoretical risk of vaccination.
BBC video on how giving a CAD7500 cash lump sum to recently homeless people seems to give them better financial outcomes over a year:
https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p096hf4z/the-7-500-...
And would you look at that - it could be used to deal with the Covid situation...
(Half the video seems to be on UBI as a Covid response.)
https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p096hf4z/the-7-500-...
And would you look at that - it could be used to deal with the Covid situation...
(Half the video seems to be on UBI as a Covid response.)
RSTurboPaul said:
BBC video on how giving a CAD7500 cash lump sum to recently homeless people seems to give them better financial outcomes over a year:
https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p096hf4z/the-7-500-...
And would you look at that - it could be used to deal with the Covid situation...
I am shocked and stunned that no-one has thought of this before! https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p096hf4z/the-7-500-...
And would you look at that - it could be used to deal with the Covid situation...
Brainpox said:
You sound mental. Operations are delayed because there are no staff to perform them, or space to recover, or treat patients if there are procedural complications. Yes the 10 year old (and her mother two weeks after) died of covid.
Patients were catching covid in hospitals because there are so many 'red' patients there isn't enough space to segregate them from 'green' properly. Screening at the door was unreliable, you have to wait for a test result - which could still be wrong. So A&E departments were made 'amber', with patients mixing, so staff could try treating patients rather than endlessly move them around. That's how bad it was.
You haven't got a clue, honestly. If you're sick of being stuck at home, covid wards are still after bank staff.
That is absolutely not true, I know of two people who have had cancer surgeries cancelled one was private and they were told they simply were not allowed to do the surgery as they had to be on call for the NHS. No staff shortage at all, the surgeon was there ready and waiting twiddling his thumbs. Patients were catching covid in hospitals because there are so many 'red' patients there isn't enough space to segregate them from 'green' properly. Screening at the door was unreliable, you have to wait for a test result - which could still be wrong. So A&E departments were made 'amber', with patients mixing, so staff could try treating patients rather than endlessly move them around. That's how bad it was.
You haven't got a clue, honestly. If you're sick of being stuck at home, covid wards are still after bank staff.
RSTurboPaul said:
BBC story on why childbearing age women, who are unlikely to suffer ill health from Covid, should get vaccinated
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56012529
I take it they didn't post those tweets of that woman, maybe a nurse or something who was pregnant and got the jab, encouraging everyone else to do it and then a few days later announced that she had miscarried. It may be connected it may not be but there should be some balance in these media stories.https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56012529
BBC said:
Even something as simple as an over-the-counter painkiller carries a tiny risk of ulcers and internal bleeding. But the risk for most people is so small when used correctly, that it is outweighed by the benefits of treating relatively mild pain.
And the benefits of preventing an illness that we know can be life-threatening have been judged to be much greater than any theoretical risk of vaccination.
And the benefits of preventing an illness that we know can be life-threatening have been judged to be much greater than any theoretical risk of vaccination.
I see that BBC article with Hancock saying 'we might just have to live with it' also includes more SAGE comment to offset any optimism
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56050119
Also of note:
So if coming variants are going to be more dangerous, surely it's better to get it all out of the way now??
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56050119
BBC said:
However, scientists have urged caution.
Professor Steven Riley, a member of the Spi-M modelling group, said the rollout of vaccination did not mean coronavirus controls could be dropped, adding that Britain could face a wave as big as the current one if lockdown restrictions were all lifted.
I wonder if Govt will ever stick to one consistent message? Professor Steven Riley, a member of the Spi-M modelling group, said the rollout of vaccination did not mean coronavirus controls could be dropped, adding that Britain could face a wave as big as the current one if lockdown restrictions were all lifted.
Also of note:
BBC said:
"In the short term, if we were to allow a very large wave of infection, that wave will find all the people who couldn't have the vaccine for very good reason (and) those people who had the vaccine but unfortunately it didn't give them the protection they need."
Dr Pitt added: "The mutations, the variations, that we're seeing are becoming more infectious, not less infectious and a bit more dangerous, not less dangerous."
The people that can't have the vaccine aren't going to disappear - whether they get it in one larger 'wave' or spread out through the year, they'll still be susceptible.Dr Pitt added: "The mutations, the variations, that we're seeing are becoming more infectious, not less infectious and a bit more dangerous, not less dangerous."
So if coming variants are going to be more dangerous, surely it's better to get it all out of the way now??
ch37 said:
My 84 year old neighbour took a fall out on a walk yesterday, knocked unconscious and (as it turns out) dislocated her shoulder amongst other minor injuries.
Temperature only briefly crept above freezing yesterday, she was led on the pavement for over 2 hours waiting for an ambulance (she was found very quickly, the person who found her went door knocking for blankets etc.)
Hospital discharged her at 2am as they needed space, her daughter had to immediately travel over 100 miles to collect her.
Similarly a work colleagues friend had a mild heart attack, hit his head and fell unconscious, 3 hours before anyone arrived.
Biggest problem here is they've closed all the local A&Es and MIUs in the past few years, it's a 45 minute trip into the nearest city to get any sort of emergency care. Obviously COVID has massively reduced the capacity as well.
The NHS hasn't been fir for purpose for a while now. Covid has only made the problem worse.Temperature only briefly crept above freezing yesterday, she was led on the pavement for over 2 hours waiting for an ambulance (she was found very quickly, the person who found her went door knocking for blankets etc.)
Hospital discharged her at 2am as they needed space, her daughter had to immediately travel over 100 miles to collect her.
Similarly a work colleagues friend had a mild heart attack, hit his head and fell unconscious, 3 hours before anyone arrived.
Biggest problem here is they've closed all the local A&Es and MIUs in the past few years, it's a 45 minute trip into the nearest city to get any sort of emergency care. Obviously COVID has massively reduced the capacity as well.
I had an hour's wait for an ambulance last September when my PE's got so bad that I couldn't get enough oxygen. In the grand scheme of things, not crazy bad, but a hell of a long time when you are gasping for air (sats were down to around 90 if I recall correctly).
MIL broke her hip in the middle of the night about 3 years ago. Waited 9 hours for an ambulance. Quick response chap turned up after a few hours, but couldn't take her anywhere until they had a full size ambulance.
An old neighbour of ours fell out of door and cracked her head open in 2016. Was bleeding heavily and had been knocked out. This was in winter too. Afer around 3 hours of waiting for an ambulance our neighbour took her to A & E in his large car (we only had a tiny car at the time and couldn't get her in it).
I understand that there is a priority queue and if someone isn't breathing they get the first ambulance. However, waiting for hours for an ambulance isn't pleasant.
Another good interview by Sir Charles
I genuinely don’t think most people know how many people die each year so have zero context of deaths from covid. I’d guess a lot of people think the covid deaths have doubled or more the yearly deaths.
The point on a covid death or death from other illness being equally bad/sad definitely needs reinforcing in the media to bring the balance back
I genuinely don’t think most people know how many people die each year so have zero context of deaths from covid. I’d guess a lot of people think the covid deaths have doubled or more the yearly deaths.
The point on a covid death or death from other illness being equally bad/sad definitely needs reinforcing in the media to bring the balance back
RSTurboPaul said:
The people that can't have the vaccine aren't going to disappear - whether they get it in one larger 'wave' or spread out through the year, they'll still be susceptible.
So if coming variants are going to be more dangerous, surely it's better to get it all out of the way now??
SAGE seem tro moving the message from slowing it down to total eradication. Lets be honest that is impossible with open borders so why do they say it. It is like saying to solve poverty everyone is a millionaire, realistically improbable.So if coming variants are going to be more dangerous, surely it's better to get it all out of the way now??
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