CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)
Discussion
johnboy1975 said:
I guess the $64,000 question is: Will vaccinating the 18-50 group be better or worse overall, compared to letting the virus (that the vaccines kick the ass of) circulate. Keeping the current strain as the UK dominant one would appear to me to be very desirable, if not downright essential
Has this been looked at? We've got models for everything else....
IIRC 360 "healthy" (BMI unknown) deaths in that age group from covid. Obviously vaccinate the vunerable in that group (already done/in the process of being done)
360 deaths out of 37,700,000 0-50 year olds in England and Wales. Or c.1 in 100,000Has this been looked at? We've got models for everything else....
IIRC 360 "healthy" (BMI unknown) deaths in that age group from covid. Obviously vaccinate the vunerable in that group (already done/in the process of being done)
Annual chance of death as a man in the UK (not just England and Wales) from all causes (45-54 yo) 1 in 279
Edited by ben5575 on Tuesday 23 February 18:27
MyNewLeng said:
There's a real "Stockholm syndrome" vibe out there since the unlocking announcement yesterday. It's baffling to see people not wanting this to end and being "anxious" about being given back freedoms.
It appears there's alot of people out there who've had a taste of Big Government and have taken a liking to it. Not good for those of us who value freedom and liberty.
On Vine today a woman rang in to explain how she was physically shaking with fear when Bojo announced removing restrictions yesterday. Yep. That’s where some people are at with covid. The fear mongers have certainly won a few hearts and minds.It appears there's alot of people out there who've had a taste of Big Government and have taken a liking to it. Not good for those of us who value freedom and liberty.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
Nickgnome said:
Railing against the rules are not going to make them end any sooner. Possibly quite the reverse.
I think that assumption has gone out of the window in the last 12 months. I was pretty relaxed about the first lockdown when it started, if not a fan. By late spring when the worst had passed and they seemed to be easing up I would have been fine with that. Cautious, but apparently effective and finite. Then it was masks, tiers, second waves and all the rest. As if general compliance and public support emboldened them to go further and further.
You can't comply your way to freedom.
It needs railing against, debunking and defying IMO.
As an aside, we are talking about the possibility of masks next winter. When do they propose binning them off? July? And yet, they mandated them in July last year......
johnboy1975 said:
Whats done is done.
My issue is with the pace of the unlocking. May 17th, everyone over 50 (and everyone vunerable of a lower age) will have been vaccinated and it will have started working (17 days from end of April).
Why do we need restrictions at that point?
To stop the infection taking hold again? My issue is with the pace of the unlocking. May 17th, everyone over 50 (and everyone vunerable of a lower age) will have been vaccinated and it will have started working (17 days from end of April).
Why do we need restrictions at that point?
It's easy to be cavalier when the consequences are unknown.
I'll stick with expert advice and the government.
June 21 is only just over a month later anyway.
Nickgnome said:
steveT350C said:
Nickgnome said:
I refer to some posters here some of whom even refuse to vaccinated. How stupid is that?
I’m not “refusing” to take the vaccine, I just cannot be bothered.Evidence is now building that the vaccine has a very significant impact on transmissibility.
Do you want these restrictions to last even longer?
Nickgnome said:
Why not? Mine was less than 5minutes from arriving at the Health centre to being back in the car.
Evidence is now building that the vaccine has a very significant impact on transmissibility.
Do you want these restrictions to last even longer?
Genuine question.Evidence is now building that the vaccine has a very significant impact on transmissibility.
Do you want these restrictions to last even longer?
You’ve been vaccinated, along with your cohort, so what difference does it make to you if the person next to you isn’t vaccinated? I understand the argument about not overwhelming the nhs with sick people, but if that person is a child, or younger person, and wont need hospitalisation with covid why does it matter?
johnboy1975 said:
Good post
As an aside, we are talking about the possibility of masks next winter. When do they propose binning them off? July? And yet, they mandated them in July last year......
Have you not got bigger issues in your life than wearing a mask in shops during winter months?As an aside, we are talking about the possibility of masks next winter. When do they propose binning them off? July? And yet, they mandated them in July last year......
I tend to get concerned about the things i can control which generally works well.
By September or October we may know a lot better how this virus is faring with most vaccinated.
Nickgnome said:
To stop the infection taking hold again?
It's easy to be cavalier when the consequences are unknown.
I'll stick with expert advice and the government.
June 21 is only just over a month later anyway.
But it's fine to be cavalier with children's education and mental health?It's easy to be cavalier when the consequences are unknown.
I'll stick with expert advice and the government.
June 21 is only just over a month later anyway.
Nickgnome said:
johnboy1975 said:
Whats done is done.
My issue is with the pace of the unlocking. May 17th, everyone over 50 (and everyone vunerable of a lower age) will have been vaccinated and it will have started working (17 days from end of April).
Why do we need restrictions at that point?
To stop the infection taking hold again? My issue is with the pace of the unlocking. May 17th, everyone over 50 (and everyone vunerable of a lower age) will have been vaccinated and it will have started working (17 days from end of April).
Why do we need restrictions at that point?
It's easy to be cavalier when the consequences are unknown.
I'll stick with expert advice and the government.
June 21 is only just over a month later anyway.
Deaths will be down by 90-95%. Seasonality will mean its at low levels. If we can't live with it on May 17th I suggest we will never be able to live with it, despite Boris saying different.
Might only be a month (between May 17th and June 21st) but what is going to change, other than a proportion of the under 50s getting jabbed? Is that really going to make a fundamental difference? If not, why support it?
I'm open to the idea of (very minimal) restrictions in the winter. Should they be proved necessary and effective.
Nickgnome said:
JuanCarlosFandango said:
Nickgnome said:
Railing against the rules are not going to make them end any sooner. Possibly quite the reverse.
I think that assumption has gone out of the window in the last 12 months. I was pretty relaxed about the first lockdown when it started, if not a fan. By late spring when the worst had passed and they seemed to be easing up I would have been fine with that. Cautious, but apparently effective and finite. Then it was masks, tiers, second waves and all the rest. As if general compliance and public support emboldened them to go further and further.
You can't comply your way to freedom.
It needs railing against, debunking and defying IMO.
soofsayer said:
Nickgnome said:
Why not? Mine was less than 5minutes from arriving at the Health centre to being back in the car.
Evidence is now building that the vaccine has a very significant impact on transmissibility.
Do you want these restrictions to last even longer?
Genuine question.Evidence is now building that the vaccine has a very significant impact on transmissibility.
Do you want these restrictions to last even longer?
You’ve been vaccinated, along with your cohort, so what difference does it make to you if the person next to you isn’t vaccinated? I understand the argument about not overwhelming the nhs with sick people, but if that person is a child, or younger person, and wont need hospitalisation with covid why does it matter?
There are still vulnerable people of all ages including those who have undergone surgery.
Surely we as a society want to protect as many people as possible so isn't it a sociably responsible thing to do?
It seems 'for the greater good' is no longer thing.
If clinicians and key workers are vaccinated why not everyone else?
deebs said:
cymatty said:
Paul-M said:
My goodness that was depressing for us who live in Scotland. Essentially another two months of total lockdown before moving back to the horrendous tier system. Absolutely no word on when anything like normal life will resume. Very disheartening but totally expected from Sturgeon.
This nugget was well hidWhat are these new levels
Oh
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covi...
How does this tally with the statement that society will substantiality open up by the end of April?
Those new levels are bonkers! It’s unlikely anywhere in Scotland will get to Level 1 by 2022.
I was feeling a bit down today but this is soul destroying.
I’m not bothered by the meeting people/ socialising/ travel to other areas bit because most folk I know are doing all of these anyway but from the business/hospitality/weddings side there’s just nothing positive in sight. We could at least have been given a glimmer of hope!
Nickgnome said:
johnboy1975 said:
Good post
As an aside, we are talking about the possibility of masks next winter. When do they propose binning them off? July? And yet, they mandated them in July last year......
Have you not got bigger issues in your life than wearing a mask in shops during winter months?As an aside, we are talking about the possibility of masks next winter. When do they propose binning them off? July? And yet, they mandated them in July last year......
I tend to get concerned about the things i can control which generally works well.
By September or October we may know a lot better how this virus is faring with most vaccinated.
. Fast forward 7 months and now I have to wear one for 8 hours a day at work. As JuanCarlosFandango posted, "you can't comply your way to freedom"BTW, I'd love it to be limited to winter months. It came in in July. By your rational, it should be not needed soon?
Update with todays data:
1. Testing is on the rise again and is heading for a new peak. Meanwhile cases continue to fall and are now at Sept 2020 levels. There were some suggestions last week that the rate of decline might be slowing. However, I think this is simply exponential decay, with the dotted redline illustrating Halving every 18 days. If this rate continues we will drop below 1,000 cases per day during the second half of April:
2. Key metrics. Cases per 100k tests (positivity) is also halving every 18 days. I was concerned that the switch to LFD from PCR might make this a less useful measure, but it seems the positivity of the LFD tests is so low that the volumes become almost irrelevant. Admissions and deaths are also falling consistently:
3. Metrics overlaid with growth rates. After an initial lag hospital admissions are now falling in line with cases per 100k tests. Deaths seem to be falling faster, but are prone to reporting delays. You would expect the vaccines to reduce admissions faster than cases as people suffer much milder illness, but that is not happening yet.
1. Testing is on the rise again and is heading for a new peak. Meanwhile cases continue to fall and are now at Sept 2020 levels. There were some suggestions last week that the rate of decline might be slowing. However, I think this is simply exponential decay, with the dotted redline illustrating Halving every 18 days. If this rate continues we will drop below 1,000 cases per day during the second half of April:
2. Key metrics. Cases per 100k tests (positivity) is also halving every 18 days. I was concerned that the switch to LFD from PCR might make this a less useful measure, but it seems the positivity of the LFD tests is so low that the volumes become almost irrelevant. Admissions and deaths are also falling consistently:
3. Metrics overlaid with growth rates. After an initial lag hospital admissions are now falling in line with cases per 100k tests. Deaths seem to be falling faster, but are prone to reporting delays. You would expect the vaccines to reduce admissions faster than cases as people suffer much milder illness, but that is not happening yet.
Nickgnome said:
So have you spoken to your doctor? What does he say?
I tend to listen to mine.
I have a penicillin allergy as well btw and had the AZ one.
I tend to listen to mine.
I have a penicillin allergy as well btw and had the AZ one.
Nickgnome said:
To stop the infection taking hold again?
It's easy to be cavalier when the consequences are unknown.
I'll stick with expert advice and the government.
June 21 is only just over a month later anyway.
And yet, after his vaccination, the NHS nurse saidIt's easy to be cavalier when the consequences are unknown.
I'll stick with expert advice and the government.
June 21 is only just over a month later anyway.
Nickgnome said:
i was advised to sit for 15mins but i went into Sainsbury instead
Arrogant prat.Edited by Colonel Cupcake on Tuesday 23 February 18:46
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