CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)
Discussion
Pete102 said:
ant1973 said:
Meanwhile, tax increases are to fall on businesses to pay for the mess:-
https://www.ft.com/content/55f9d53f-b100-4073-814b...
Looks like CT is to rise to 25% over the course of the parliament because:-
“Corporation tax is pretty safe political ground".
So it might not be the right thing to do but it is politically expedient.
And critically it will be a 6% tax increase for those of us who earn a combination of salary and dividends (cf the self-employed). I have long suggested that Employer's NI should be abolished (a tax on employment - utterly mad) and the rate merged into income tax full stop. This tax increase is a penalty for small business at a time when they need to be encouraged to create jobs. Increasing CT will simply mean that purchasing assets (useful or not) will become more attractive.
The whole thing is nuts.
Conservatives - The party of business....literally their tag line. https://www.ft.com/content/55f9d53f-b100-4073-814b...
Looks like CT is to rise to 25% over the course of the parliament because:-
“Corporation tax is pretty safe political ground".
So it might not be the right thing to do but it is politically expedient.
And critically it will be a 6% tax increase for those of us who earn a combination of salary and dividends (cf the self-employed). I have long suggested that Employer's NI should be abolished (a tax on employment - utterly mad) and the rate merged into income tax full stop. This tax increase is a penalty for small business at a time when they need to be encouraged to create jobs. Increasing CT will simply mean that purchasing assets (useful or not) will become more attractive.
The whole thing is nuts.
https://www.conservatives.com/business
Conservatives - The party of their business, not yours.
isaldiri said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Having thought about the modelling of what happens when we go into summer, my conclusion is we shouldn't dismiss the modelling out of hand. Even though we don't like what it suggests.
Putting aside the modelled number of deaths for a moment, what is clear is that by the time we get to the summer there will still be a large proportion of the vulnerable population without protection.
how? Rollout rates suggest everyone over 60 will be done by mid April at the latest. Single doses look more protective than expected so very significant levels of protection especially against serious disease plus ~15-20% infected already should mean hardly anyone is without protection, rather than 'large proportion of the vulnerable'. Summer being well may or june by most definitions.Putting aside the modelled number of deaths for a moment, what is clear is that by the time we get to the summer there will still be a large proportion of the vulnerable population without protection.
EddieSteadyGo said:
croyde said:
The reason I saw my ex wife last week......I saw her in hospital after my 15 year old had overdosed and was unresponsive in A&E for 10 hours.
Forget covid for a moment, that's awful news. I hope you manage to get him all the help he needs.croyde said:
I started this past year as a bit of a Covid Denier. I kept saying that although many friends were facing financial ruin, I knew no one who had had Covid.
This winter it has got closer and closer. Friends and relatives have caught it, thankfully only one ended up in hospital for a couple of nights.
Now my ex wife has it. She sounds pretty rough and now stuck in the house with troublesome teen boys and the ex boyfriend.
Thing is, I saw her last week when I picked up one son to stay at mine for a couple of nights.
Do I need to isolate?
I've been at work since seeing her briefly.
I still believe the governments reaction to all this has been completely over the top.
The damage done to my children's education, including a daughter at Uni, has be catastrophic.
The reason I saw my ex wife last week......I saw her in hospital after my 15 year old had overdosed and was unresponsive in A&E for 10 hours.
Good chance she caught it at hospital.
Croyde I don't really post in here but regardless of whatever we all may think of Covid, I hope you get the help you need for your son. Horrible situation and you have my best wishes.This winter it has got closer and closer. Friends and relatives have caught it, thankfully only one ended up in hospital for a couple of nights.
Now my ex wife has it. She sounds pretty rough and now stuck in the house with troublesome teen boys and the ex boyfriend.
Thing is, I saw her last week when I picked up one son to stay at mine for a couple of nights.
Do I need to isolate?
I've been at work since seeing her briefly.
I still believe the governments reaction to all this has been completely over the top.
The damage done to my children's education, including a daughter at Uni, has be catastrophic.
The reason I saw my ex wife last week......I saw her in hospital after my 15 year old had overdosed and was unresponsive in A&E for 10 hours.
Good chance she caught it at hospital.
bodhi said:
That's why when I'm working on an opportunity with work and we are discussing complex medical procedures or manufacturing processes, we get an expert rather than the account manager to give the presentation.
Nothing wrong with the message he was giving imo, just the wrong person to deliver it - should have been Birx/Fauci.
That was the issue with Trump though he thought he was an expert in every field. His little riffs would be harmless in a boardroom because everyone could just ignore such moronic interpretations of the briefing material, but as president they caused no end of issues for the real experts. You could easily argue those that went to Walmart to gargle toilet bleach after watching him on tv deserved to croak it for being so stupid but there’s also no denying that his actions had some fairly horrendous consequences and everyone would have been better off if he had learned when to STFU.Nothing wrong with the message he was giving imo, just the wrong person to deliver it - should have been Birx/Fauci.
Ntv said:
vonuber said:
Saw one of those NHS T.V. adverts last where they go on about protecting the NHS, by wearing a mask and avoiding all human contact.
Surely a better message would be 'exercise more and stop stuffing your cake hole to protect the NHS'.
It always has been a National ill health serviceSurely a better message would be 'exercise more and stop stuffing your cake hole to protect the NHS'.
Pandemic has reinforced that status
Was at a walk-in centre last night with my daughter and I could see through the doors.... cannonballs on legs, beer guts everywhere. Then an ambulance arrived and fair do's the bloke was a bit of a racing snake, but his colleague was a whale! A lot of NHS staff live in our village and you see them all the time in their garb. Hardly any of them are pictures of health, waddling to the shop or the bus stop with a fag on.
isaldiri said:
Misanthrope said:
There are 5.4 million over 75's. Say 10% don't get vaccinated for whatever reason, and in another 5% the vaccine has low efficacy. That leaves 0.15 * 5.4m = 810k unprotected. Say 1/3 have already been infected and recovered - that leaves 540k unprotected. At an IFR of between 5% and 10% for that age group, that's still a potential 27k to 54k deaths if the virus is in wide circulation.
10% of older people isn't a 'large proportion of people unprotected'.Yes some extra people will die. It happens. It's a small enough number to be acceptable. Expecting to forever reduce transmission by not having the virus in 'wide circulation' through further continued restrictions is a forever battle that is utterly senseless.
Protect everyone who wants to be and after that unless everyone not vaccinated has a massive covid party they won't all get infected at the same time.
bodhi said:
..as an overall Public Health strategy looking at more than just COVID it's been brilliant imo.
^^ this. Many times over.Edited by isaldiri on Thursday 25th February 11:16
Joe Public does not have a clue.
And hysteria will ensue.
How does a populist government respond to hysteria?
London424 said:
MikeT66 said:
London424 said:
Not sure if others have seen this Twitter account. COVID one year ago. It looks back on this date a year ago with the announcements etc. that were given at the time. Today is a doozy.
https://twitter.com/yearcovid/status/1364881070903...
Not sure I want to 'live' that year again. https://twitter.com/yearcovid/status/1364881070903...
For example, here’s what PHE told care homes
And then we’ve got the first instance of ‘herd immunity’ popping up
https://twitter.com/yearcovid/status/1364895163898...
croyde said:
I started this past year as a bit of a Covid Denier.
croyde said:
I still believe the governments reaction to all this has been completely over the top.
The damage done to my children's education, including a daughter at Uni, has be catastrophic.
Sorry Croyde for the chop and sorry to hear of your problems, not easy to deal with in normal times. You aren't a Covid denier in my book though. The damage done to my children's education, including a daughter at Uni, has be catastrophic.
A denier is to be sceptical that the virus even exists, along with the microchip, 5G fruitloops that have managed to undermine the scepticism of the government actions. I've seen very little if anything about the denial of its existence on here. It plainly is here.
But as highlighted in the second statement above you are sceptical about the government measures been proportionate. It's frustrating that in the lifting of restrictions they are leaving a significant time to see if each change makes a difference to the infection rate. Seems sensible to me, unfortunately this wasn't the case when introducing them.
No one knows if we could have gone through this without a full lockdown, maybe we would have had a similar death rate to now, except maybe our children might have had their education and businesses may have been able to function to some degree.
I suspect we will never know and with 100's of years of pandemic control studies thrown out the window, the default will probably be to shut everything down and lock up the perfectly healthy the next time.
isaldiri said:
Pete102 said:
I would also like to know how. In the summer, the only vulnerable without protection will be those opting not to take the vaccine. Groups 1-9 of the cohorts will all have been jabbed by end of April.
Perhaps more pertinently, I think the focus on 'herd immunity' due to infection/transmission blocking is crazy and is something being lined up by the vivid lunatics as it's something very likely to fail. I've said this before and I'll repeat - sterilising immunity for infection blocking is absolutely not guaranteed to last and in fact very likely to be far more transient and short term than protection against serious disease or even symptomatic illness. The bar for sufficient protection against serious disease doesn't seem that hard to reach - it's likely I think to be far higher to be requiring sterilising immunity especially lasting sterilising immunity. As long as serious disease is being prevented as the vulnerable group are largely protected, the whole concept of 'herd immunity' is nuts.
30 min interview (sorry no timestamp for the quote)
https://youtu.be/JFnDacqXP4c
Ignoring the porky pies, once 70% have had it, surely it dies down a bit? At least at the sharp end (hospitalisations and deaths) as you say
Could well be ongoing transmission between kids, both when they go back in March, and again in the autumn. So there's clearly going to be a 4th wave of infections at some point, if we test the nuts off everything , as we seem intent on doing
And re the other points mentioned re models and potential for large numbers of deaths, if the vaccine works as expected surely we are looking at 10% (refused/unable to take vaccine) of 130k deaths over 12 months. Plus 360 "fit and heathy" under 60's, assuming the vunerable in that cohort have been jabbed. So....flu like levels
(which we don't shut down for)Thats assuming there's exactly the same amount of transmission as the previous 12 months, which is a bit of a stretch.
Edited by johnboy1975 on Thursday 25th February 14:23
Otispunkmeyer said:
Not sure what is going on but it wouldn't surprise me now that they're sorta rammed with people who need hospital for things other than covid. There is only so long you can put stuff off.
Well they managed to put off cancer treatment for my MiL. She died over Christmas.RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
TellYaWhatItIs said:
Will we ever get the numbers up to have another marathon again? So many promising young PBs never to be set.
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