CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)
Discussion
blade runner said:
Ahonen said:
This number seems to be steadily increasing. As the raw death numbers are reducing this is starting to become a significant percentage - over 10% now.
Can someone explain why deaths without a postive test are being reported in the daily figures? On the news every night we are given the daily deaths total and it's clearly stated that this number is covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test. Surely if there is no positive test result, then they shouldn't be included in the numbers? Or am I misunderstanding something?- People who died of old age after having Covid last month
- People who have never even tested positive
- People who died months ago and are just being reported now
- People who died “with” not “of” Covid
By the time you take those out, the square root of nobody is dying from Covid.
Most of the ones that are still dying probably caught it in hospital.
With this and the context of 20 million people vaccinated, continuing restrictions and economic devastation makes even less sense.
Update on excess deaths based on todays ONS report for wk 7 ending 19th Feb 21:
1. This shows ONS weekly deaths for England and Wales split into non-COVID (blue) and 'due to COVID (red). The dotted lines show the population adjusted 5 year average, max and min. The green line is 2 standard deviations from the average and is intended to identify statistically signifiant excess.
As has been the case through most of the 2nd wave non-COVID deaths are below the 5 year minimum. We still have statistically significant excess death, but the decline over the last few weeks does seem to be following a relatively normal winter pattern:
2. This graph compares deaths 'due to' COVID to excess deaths. The difference between the 1st and 2nd waves is obvious, with excess deaths much lower in the 2nd wave and consistently lower than reported COVID deaths. As per recent press articles I think this is due to our methodology, which makes it quite likely that deaths involving other conditions will be certified as 'due to' COVID
3. This graph follows the same methodology but compares the impact of COVID to statisitically significant excess deaths. In this case the difference between the first and second waves is even more stark.
1. This shows ONS weekly deaths for England and Wales split into non-COVID (blue) and 'due to COVID (red). The dotted lines show the population adjusted 5 year average, max and min. The green line is 2 standard deviations from the average and is intended to identify statistically signifiant excess.
As has been the case through most of the 2nd wave non-COVID deaths are below the 5 year minimum. We still have statistically significant excess death, but the decline over the last few weeks does seem to be following a relatively normal winter pattern:
2. This graph compares deaths 'due to' COVID to excess deaths. The difference between the 1st and 2nd waves is obvious, with excess deaths much lower in the 2nd wave and consistently lower than reported COVID deaths. As per recent press articles I think this is due to our methodology, which makes it quite likely that deaths involving other conditions will be certified as 'due to' COVID
3. This graph follows the same methodology but compares the impact of COVID to statisitically significant excess deaths. In this case the difference between the first and second waves is even more stark.
dmahon said:
blade runner said:
Ahonen said:
This number seems to be steadily increasing. As the raw death numbers are reducing this is starting to become a significant percentage - over 10% now.
Can someone explain why deaths without a postive test are being reported in the daily figures? On the news every night we are given the daily deaths total and it's clearly stated that this number is covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test. Surely if there is no positive test result, then they shouldn't be included in the numbers? Or am I misunderstanding something?- People who died of old age after having Covid last month
- People who have never even tested positive
- People who died months ago and are just being reported now
- People who died “with” not “of” Covid
By the time you take those out, the square root of nobody is dying from Covid.
Most of the ones that are still dying probably caught it in hospital.
With this and the context of 20 million people vaccinated, continuing restrictions and economic devastation makes even less sense.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Masks are to be reviewed May 17th. Surely they will be binned for 4 months? JvT talked of "possible masks next winter" (and then rowed back/ clarified to voluntary which I'm sceptical of, but here's hoping). Point being, if there's talk of masks coming back, they have to disappear for a bit firstAny doesn't getting close enough to check there's multiple layers negate any potential benefit of wearing them?
monkfish1 said:
dmahon said:
blade runner said:
Ahonen said:
This number seems to be steadily increasing. As the raw death numbers are reducing this is starting to become a significant percentage - over 10% now.
Can someone explain why deaths without a postive test are being reported in the daily figures? On the news every night we are given the daily deaths total and it's clearly stated that this number is covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test. Surely if there is no positive test result, then they shouldn't be included in the numbers? Or am I misunderstanding something?- People who died of old age after having Covid last month
- People who have never even tested positive
- People who died months ago and are just being reported now
- People who died “with” not “of” Covid
By the time you take those out, the square root of nobody is dying from Covid.
Most of the ones that are still dying probably caught it in hospital.
With this and the context of 20 million people vaccinated, continuing restrictions and economic devastation makes even less sense.
johnboy1975 said:
monkfish1 said:
dmahon said:
blade runner said:
Ahonen said:
This number seems to be steadily increasing. As the raw death numbers are reducing this is starting to become a significant percentage - over 10% now.
Can someone explain why deaths without a postive test are being reported in the daily figures? On the news every night we are given the daily deaths total and it's clearly stated that this number is covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test. Surely if there is no positive test result, then they shouldn't be included in the numbers? Or am I misunderstanding something?- People who died of old age after having Covid last month
- People who have never even tested positive
- People who died months ago and are just being reported now
- People who died “with” not “of” Covid
By the time you take those out, the square root of nobody is dying from Covid.
Most of the ones that are still dying probably caught it in hospital.
With this and the context of 20 million people vaccinated, continuing restrictions and economic devastation makes even less sense.
Picked up from another thread in relation to politicians and the public’s perception of them. The gist is that for a considerable length of time there has been a general mistrust of politicians by the population.
However now, there appears to be a large proportion of the population who are hanging on to their every word and believing every bit of carp that they come out with with regard to vaccines etc.
Now why would that be and what has changed?
k off...
Elysium said:
Update on excess deaths based on todays ONS report for wk 7 ending 19th Feb 21:
It's beyond my abilities so is there any chance you could post some different excess mortality stats? I'm suspicious that a five year average is being used to support the narrative and I'd really like to know how things look when using other rolling averages - say, 10, 15 or 20 years. Quite understand if you're busy enough already.Update from todays PHE numbers:
1. Virus Tests and Cases. Lots of fluctuation on testing. I think this is due to the very significant switch to LFD and the last few days are skyrocketing, which may be due to the initial school testing. Regardless of this, cases continue to fall, broadly in line with an 18 day halving from the peak. If this continues we will be below 1,000 cases per day by the third week of April
2. Key metrics. Cases per 100k tests (positivity) are also halving every 18 days. Going down about as quickly as they went up. Admissions and deaths are doing the same.
3. You can see this clearly when you overlay the 3 metrics with a lag so deaths and admissions appear alongside the cases that they relate to. Cases per 100k tests are now down to early Sept levels. But when you look at growth rates we are in a much better place. Back then the epidemic was growing with Rt around 1.4, now we have the same amount of cases per test, but with Rt below 1.
1. Virus Tests and Cases. Lots of fluctuation on testing. I think this is due to the very significant switch to LFD and the last few days are skyrocketing, which may be due to the initial school testing. Regardless of this, cases continue to fall, broadly in line with an 18 day halving from the peak. If this continues we will be below 1,000 cases per day by the third week of April
2. Key metrics. Cases per 100k tests (positivity) are also halving every 18 days. Going down about as quickly as they went up. Admissions and deaths are doing the same.
3. You can see this clearly when you overlay the 3 metrics with a lag so deaths and admissions appear alongside the cases that they relate to. Cases per 100k tests are now down to early Sept levels. But when you look at growth rates we are in a much better place. Back then the epidemic was growing with Rt around 1.4, now we have the same amount of cases per test, but with Rt below 1.
Alucidnation said:
g4ry13 said:
Oh look....a reported vaccine death. I think this should be counted as a death from the vaccine if getting squashed by a train within 28 days of a positive covid test constitutes a covid death.
“ A Japanese a woman in her 60s died from a brain haemorrhage three days after receiving a Pfizer coronavirus vaccination, the health ministry said on Tuesday, adding that there may not be a link between the two.”Not exactly conclusive really.
Good effort though.
They're concerned enough to investigate and look deeper into it.
More information will come out about the side effects of the experimental vaccine when we have some longer term data.
soofsayer said:
Biker 1 said:
Does she honestly think this will be possible to implement?? I have a collection of 6 motorcycle snoods. I keep one in the car in case of emergency shopping & another one for the weekly Sainsburys run. Have not actually purchased any type of mask during this & have no intention of spending a single penny on one.
I'm still alive......
Easy to forget mask wearing isn't about protecting you and your own health, it's about protecting everyone else. Same theme with the vaccinations.I'm still alive......
Taylor James said:
Elysium said:
Update on excess deaths based on todays ONS report for wk 7 ending 19th Feb 21:
It's beyond my abilities so is there any chance you could post some different excess mortality stats? I'm suspicious that a five year average is being used to support the narrative and I'd really like to know how things look when using other rolling averages - say, 10, 15 or 20 years. Quite understand if you're busy enough already.
I have not looked at 15 or 20 years. But as I understand it we made significant mortality gains from 2000-2010. So 2020 will compare much more closely with the start of the century
In normal years the number of deaths is weirdly stable and predictable.
amgmcqueen said:
soofsayer said:
Biker 1 said:
Does she honestly think this will be possible to implement?? I have a collection of 6 motorcycle snoods. I keep one in the car in case of emergency shopping & another one for the weekly Sainsburys run. Have not actually purchased any type of mask during this & have no intention of spending a single penny on one.
I'm still alive......
Easy to forget mask wearing isn't about protecting you and your own health, it's about protecting everyone else. Same theme with the vaccinations.I'm still alive......
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