CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)
Discussion
Alucidnation said:
What evidence did you see in March 2020 that HMG hadn't, to know that would have worked?
There was a fairly detailed plan for a pandemic of a respiratory disease drawn up well before March last year, in 2011. I would be very interested to know what evidence the government had in March last year that caused them to ditch the plan and engage full panic mode.survivalist said:
jameswills said:
Jasandjules said:
Alucidnation said:
What evidence did you see in March 2020 that HMG hadn't, to know that would have worked?
An IQ above a peanut can see that locking up everyone instead of just those at risk is abject stupidity. 
JuanCarlosFandango said:
baptistsan said:
Easy tiger 
I've been called thick, selfish and disgraceful for daring to question the way this whole mess has been handled by our illustrious government!
Oh you got off light!I've been called thick, selfish and disgraceful for daring to question the way this whole mess has been handled by our illustrious government!
JuanCarlosFandango said:
Alucidnation said:
What evidence did you see in March 2020 that HMG hadn't, to know that would have worked?
There was a fairly detailed plan for a pandemic of a respiratory disease drawn up well before March last year, in 2011. I would be very interested to know what evidence the government had in March last year that caused them to ditch the plan and engage full panic mode.And, it wasn't just the UK.
isaldiri said:
johnboy1975 said:
The 1m a day was my figure (guesstimate), wrt April 2020. With 90%+ susceptible and a high R rate (no lockdown, just shielding the vunerable) what do you think it would have topped out at?
R of 3 gives next round of infections at 450k a day, and the one after 1.35m
in April? Tbh nowhere close to that. maybe 200k infections a day then, infection rate declining a lot in the week before 'official' lockdown anyway with transmissions rate maybe around 1 or 1.5 at most.R of 3 gives next round of infections at 450k a day, and the one after 1.35m
At the time enough people were freaked out by the virus to have changed their behaviour very considerably already anyway so it would have tailed off from there fairly quickly. Lockdown or not mobility had crashed in the last week, especially in London. Add in the weather with people outdoors a lot more, no way infections would have continuing rising at that kind of rate into April.
Lockdown in April 2021 is going to be a VERY hard sell indeed
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Lot's of different measures for the number of countries. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countri...
Alucidnation said:
Thats understandable, but i really cannot see any reason at all why they would potentially cost themselves and the whole country this level of grief.
And, it wasn't just the UK.
I find it far easier to believe that the usual vices of ego, vanity and panic led them, with the right encouragement, into a series of bad decisions than that some unforeseen attribute of this specific disease made the whole plan redundant and the course of action they chose obviously better.And, it wasn't just the UK.
And not just in the UK!
Alucidnation said:
JuanCarlosFandango said:
Alucidnation said:
What evidence did you see in March 2020 that HMG hadn't, to know that would have worked?
There was a fairly detailed plan for a pandemic of a respiratory disease drawn up well before March last year, in 2011. I would be very interested to know what evidence the government had in March last year that caused them to ditch the plan and engage full panic mode.And, it wasn't just the UK.
Could you please explain then whether you consider the regulation of financial services and markets pre 2007 by dozens of developed countries to be a collective success or failure?
Harrison Bergeron said:
Graveworm said:
So you don't accept the only evidence out there, therefore there is no evidence, and therefore, the opposite is true is a very strange argument. Other pollsters are finding the same thing, it's also the case in many other countries, Maybe you have an occasion when the polls were out by such a huge margin of error that would turn this level of support into lack of support?
What about prime minister Corbyn? Or Hilary 2016?bodhi said:
From those right wing conspiracy nuts at the LSE...My recollection of last March was fear. I was worried. We didn’t know much about covid other than the reports out of China and Italy. We took our kids out of school a few days before the end of that last week to be safe. I remember going to the office and collecting my stuff and decontaminating at home despite not having any human contact. The roads were empty, it was a scary moment. Everyone was s
tting themselves. I can’t blame the government for the initial response by locking down in March 20.
After those first weeks it became clearer as time passed that the elderly and vulnerable were the most likely victims, that we needed to protect them. Thats where policy started to go ‘wrong’ for me. They should have followed the science and done exactly that, treat us like grownups, offer shielding support, instead of pandering to and stoking the hysteria.
Anyway, the oldies are on the march now they’ve been jabbed as I predicted. It’ll be over soon, for them.
tting themselves. I can’t blame the government for the initial response by locking down in March 20.After those first weeks it became clearer as time passed that the elderly and vulnerable were the most likely victims, that we needed to protect them. Thats where policy started to go ‘wrong’ for me. They should have followed the science and done exactly that, treat us like grownups, offer shielding support, instead of pandering to and stoking the hysteria.
Anyway, the oldies are on the march now they’ve been jabbed as I predicted. It’ll be over soon, for them.
bodhi said:
Quelle surpriseSaving the elderly and sick from something at the expense of everything and everyone else. The cost/benefit was never going to look very good on this one.
bodhi said:
Almost sounds as if you're suggesting that if you tell people there is a nasty virus around they will modify their behaviour to suit, without the need to criminalise people for going 5.1 miles from their houses for a walk
well yes but to be fair, at the point people start to spontaneously change behaviour it probably does mean a whole heap of people have got infected already and you've got to still have used a heap of 'virus is killing everyone' messaging to get there. I suppose i can understand why it might be considered that waiting for infections to get to the level of end of March20 or end of Dec20 was rather too long as well if lots of restrictions ultimately still were needed. djc206 said:
bodhi said:
Quelle surpriseSaving the elderly and sick from something at the expense of everything and everyone else. The cost/benefit was never going to look very good on this one.
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