CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)

[gazapc]

stitched said:

R-t6t6s said:

danllama said:

R-t6t6s said:

danllama said:

R-t6t6s said:

Surely if 52% of the population want something, then they have to get it and we don't worry about the minority as they are moaners? That's what I heard anyway, or was that another topic....

Have we had a vote on lockdowns and restrictions? I must have missed it.

No, but suggesting they are anti-democratic when evidence suggests the majority support them is a bit of a stretch don't you think?

What evidence? Facebook comment observations? You're talking bks. If we had a nationwide referendum on this issue beforehand it would never have happened. Who the hell would vote for stripping away rights and livelihoods? That's why this appalling government have had to coerce and legislate us into submission. It's not a suggestion that lockdowns are anti democratic, they intrinsically are! At the heart of democracy is freedom.

Hmm so your approach is to dismiss all evidence that doesn't support your view? Suppose that would make it easy to form an opinion, but I'm not sure how balanced it would be. You may be right on the referendum, but you could also be wrong, and I still think the evidence is against you, even if it isn't to your liking.

So your view of a democracy is that we are free to do as we please, or do you agree that there are normally limits imposed on that freedom?

But we won't know will we, do a spot of fact checking on who controls yougov and the methodology used, basically they profile people and predict their answers.
They then invite those that they believe will give the right answer.
If we take anything from this it should be that sweeping emergency powers should be ratified by a referendum as soon as possible.
Anything else is undemocratic.
When we vote in a government we know what their stated aims are and more importantly what statutory powers they have, any alteration to this should require public ratification.

I'm always reminded of this Yes Minister clip when opinion polls on Lockdowns saving the NHS are published.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA

If we had a proper debate over lockdowns with the likely disadvantages clear explained (this part makes a Brexit referendum analogy much less valid) the answer would be much less clear cut.
Would the polls have predicted Cambridge students vote to say lockdown was a mistake?
https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/the-va...

[JagLover]

gazapc said:

If we had a proper debate over lockdowns with the likely disadvantages clear explained (this part makes a Brexit referendum analogy much less valid) the answer would be much less clear cut.
Would the polls have predicted Cambridge students vote to say lockdown was a mistake?
https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/the-va...

A voting population of students and thus, presumably, more inclined towards state coercion for the common "good". After having a debate, with the facts clearly presented, voting against lockdown.

Too often the facts are not clearly presented, instead we have hysteria and the suggestion that those against lockdown are just selfish bast*rds. That is the context in which the polls should be regarded.

[isaldiri]

JagLover said:

People have been pointing out for months that the much lower death rates in places like Japan, despite their very elderly populations, must have some connection to lifestyle factors.

Er it's probably the very different infection rates that have affected death rates you might find rather than supposed lifestyle differences....

JagLover said:

bodhi said:

https://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/20...

Awkward.

LSE said:

and it is expected that deaths in the 85+ age group would have occurred later in the year, saving life months not years.

and I thought they had an average of 14 years left

Source quoted for that was .... The telegraph from 'a government advisor'. So not exactly the most robust as I'm sure you might agree.

[Carrot]

I have noticed a very, very sharp turn in online comments pages in the past two weeks.

Before when the regular "new varient" story came up, most of the comments where people screaming and melting down about people not behaving, need more lockdown, everyone you hug will end up in ICU etc etc...

On the latest article in the two rags, now it's "don't care" "stop crying wolf" "yeah what a surprise"

It's fantastic to see I bet the lockdown enthusiasts are grinding their teeth to powder watching people not following the rules and getting on with it.

[JagLover]

isaldiri said:

JagLover said:

People have been pointing out for months that the much lower death rates in places like Japan, despite their very elderly populations, must have some connection to lifestyle factors.

Er it's probably the very different infection rates that have affected death rates you might find rather than supposed lifestyle differences....

If people barely have any symptoms they are unlikely I would suggest to want to be tested.

Japan has an obesity rate less than a quarter of our own and a healthy diet rich in oily fish. partly as a result their Vitamin D levels are typically higher as well

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16369890/#:~:text=...

Their diet also protects against heart disease (which is the other key risk factor)

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/0807...

We are a nation gorging ourselves to death on junk food so our higher death rate is entirely to be expected.

[JuanCarlosFandango]

A discernible trickle of these stories now. I suspect in the next few months we will see the whole thing pulled to bits and the government's handling of the affair will be criticised from every angle. The fact that Labour, most of the media and a large chunk of the public supported stricter measures will be easily brushed aside, and Boris will be the villain with a wrecked economy and a mishandled pandemic.

[isaldiri]

JagLover said:

If people barely have any symptoms they are unlikely I would suggest to want to be tested.

Japan has an obesity rate less than a quarter of our own and a healthy diet rich in oily fish. partly as a result their Vitamin D levels are typically higher as well

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16369890/#:~:text=...

Their diet also protects against heart disease (which is the other key risk factor)

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/0807...

We are a nation gorging ourselves to death on junk food so our higher death rate is entirely to be expected.

General antibody surveillance studies have shown vastly lower rates of infection. Sure being fatties in general clearly hasn't helped but it is nonsensical to suggest that the lower death rates in Japan or South korea or elsewhere in east asia are 'lifestyle' related. The infection fatality rate might well be a little lower but it will most definitely not be the difference in number of deaths as that's a function of total infections. Old thin people still die at reasonably high rates and much higher than fat younger ones.

[Otispunkmeyer]

Blue62 said:

London424 said:

While bored today I was having a look across Europe and there really is a mixed picture. Portugal have really turned things around and are at tiny levels now, Italy looks like they’re about to ramp up again, Czech is a car crash right now, France is treading water but levels are pretty high. So many different pictures it’s really tough to figure out what is working or not working

Was discussing this last night, the US is seeing a big drop off in numbers but across the globe it’s a bit mixed. There doesn’t seem to be a clear reason, if it’s a seasonal thing how come S.Africa is seeing a fall in infections? If it’s herd the most optimistic estimates put the US at 30%, not enough to explain the fall and Italy now seeing a potential 4th wave challenges HI.

Maybe vaccine, distancing and suppression measures are the reason, but more likely a combination of things though there are aspects of covid 19 that don’t seem to conform to the usual pattern of coronavirus behaviour.

Surely different levels of testing and reporting are also a factor.

[isaldiri]

Alex_6n2 said:

The politicians just followed the masses to win points and couldn't see through the fog. Absolute blinder played by China.

China 1 - 0 Western Capitalist Democracies

It's probably less an evil chinese communist plot to dominate the world but simply a case of countries planning and reacting to the last crisis they had experienced. East asia was affected much more than elsewhere (except toronto) by sars1. South korea had a fairly large outbreak of mers. That was their starting point of containment unlike most of europe/us who had flu pandemic planning for years (h1n1 swine flu inclusive). Canada for example one has to note was very quick to shut themselves off in a similar way to a lot of east asia too and that's probably not a coincidence...

The chinese of course have been very quick to jump on the lockdown bandwgaon to promote 'the chinese way' in other countries but that's more opportunism after the event than having planned it earlier I'd reckon....

[ant1973]

JuanCarlosFandango said:

A discernible trickle of these stories now. I suspect in the next few months we will see the whole thing pulled to bits and the government's handling of the affair will be criticised from every angle. The fact that Labour, most of the media and a large chunk of the public supported stricter measures will be easily brushed aside, and Boris will be the villain with a wrecked economy and a mishandled pandemic.

You can look forward to "Lockdown bad. Who knew? Tonight on X Factor..."

The economy is a complete car crash. And I now see every penny of the pointless ongoing restrictions as the reason why I am in for a massive corporation tax rise in two years or so. Pretty hard to take.

[Jimmy No Hands]

JuanCarlosFandango said:

A discernible trickle of these stories now. I suspect in the next few months we will see the whole thing pulled to bits and the government's handling of the affair will be criticised from every angle. The fact that Labour, most of the media and a large chunk of the public supported stricter measures will be easily brushed aside, and Boris will be the villain with a wrecked economy and a mishandled pandemic.

The bods at the BBC will be feverishly brainstorming over what their next clickable headline will be - mustn't be positive news, no. That won't cut the mustard.

[dmahon]

JuanCarlosFandango said:

A discernible trickle of these stories now. I suspect in the next few months we will see the whole thing pulled to bits and the government's handling of the affair will be criticised from every angle. The fact that Labour, most of the media and a large chunk of the public supported stricter measures will be easily brushed aside, and Boris will be the villain with a wrecked economy and a mishandled pandemic.

All of the carping yesterday about the 1% pay rise for the NHS made me laugh. What the fook does everyone expect after the voluntary annihilation of our own economy!

[Elysium]

Turns out you can travel anywhere in the country provided you have a reasonable excuse:

We have finally found a policeman who is willing to be honest about what the law actually says:

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/yor...

Its taken us almost a year of nonsense to get here though:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-5...

[Nimby]

Is there less handshaking, hugging and kissing in Japan?

[JagLover]

isaldiri said:

General antibody surveillance studies have shown vastly lower rates of infection. Sure being fatties in general clearly hasn't helped but it is nonsensical to suggest that the lower death rates in Japan or South korea or elsewhere in east asia are 'lifestyle' related. The infection fatality rate might well be a little lower but it will most definitely not be the difference in number of deaths as that's a function of total infections. Old thin people still die at reasonably high rates and much higher than fat younger ones.

Perhaps you could post a link to recent studies showing "vastly lower rates" of infection.

There was that study showing 47% of the employees of a Tokyo company had had the virus by the end of last summer, but there may be issues with the study that mean it doesn't apply to all of Tokyo (I think this has been discussed in the past)

[Boringvolvodriver]

isaldiri said:

JagLover said:

If people barely have any symptoms they are unlikely I would suggest to want to be tested.

Japan has an obesity rate less than a quarter of our own and a healthy diet rich in oily fish. partly as a result their Vitamin D levels are typically higher as well

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16369890/#:~:text=...

Their diet also protects against heart disease (which is the other key risk factor)

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/0807...

We are a nation gorging ourselves to death on junk food so our higher death rate is entirely to be expected.

General antibody surveillance studies have shown vastly lower rates of infection. Sure being fatties in general clearly hasn't helped but it is nonsensical to suggest that the lower death rates in Japan or South korea or elsewhere in east asia are 'lifestyle' related. The infection fatality rate might well be a little lower but it will most definitely not be the difference in number of deaths as that's a function of total infections. Old thin people still die at reasonably high rates and much higher than fat younger ones.

The question that then follows, is why have Japan and others in east Asia have had lower rates of infection? If it isn’t solely down to obesity and lifestyle that includes higher levels of Vit D, more exercise and fresh air, then why are they showing lower levels of infection and deaths?

64 deaths per million and 3451 cases per million compared to ours of 1821 deaths and 61670 cases is a pretty significant difference you have to admit.

[JuanCarlosFandango]

Yeah, watch them dig out the scientists who warned them, the civil servants who were ready to implement the original plan and the models showing how many the measures have killed.

[Elysium]

bodhi said:

isaldiri said:

well yes but to be fair, at the point people start to spontaneously change behaviour it probably does mean a whole heap of people have got infected already and you've got to still have used a heap of 'virus is killing everyone' messaging to get there. I suppose i can understand why it might be considered that waiting for infections to get to the level of end of March20 or end of Dec20 was rather too long as well if lots of restrictions ultimately still were needed.

Of course and I'm not suggesting that we should have just cracked on and let it rip - things like stopping large events, encouraging people to work from home where possible, putting an upper limit on gatherings and moving pubs to table service only I'd argue would have been just as effective. Sadly the need to "do something" has meant we've always taken it a stage further than needed.

I still maintain our initial strategy that week before LD1 was the correct one, borne out by the fact its highly likely that infections peaked in that week. We were treated like adults rather than disease infested children - if we'd stuck with that this last year would have been much easier on all of us and we wouldn't be seeing reports like that one I posted from LSE.

All the typical 20:20 vision associated with hindsight, but I'm not seeing too much evidence to disprove it right now.

I entirely agree. As do some of the worlds leading epidemiologists:

https://gbdeclaration.org/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33400268/

Ioannidis et al said:

While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less-restrictive interventions.

As with most of life, the law of diminishing returns applies.

[ant1973]

The yield on the 10 year gilt has trebled in a month - back to the same level as a year ago. However, a year ago, we were nowhere near £2tn of debt with a forecast to increase to £3tn. Will be interesting to see where it ends. The Fed's refusal to say much yesterday is likely to continue to drive yields higher. Will be interesting to see how this pans out over the coming months.

In the whacky world in which we live, the 50 year gilt is trading at much the same level as the 10 year.... Yield curve inversion. Another banking innovation of the last decade we could all do without.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkgb...

Between roll over debt and the deficit we are headed towards a total refinancing requirement of c. £400bn next year. Last year the BoE QE'd the entire deficit (or as Andrew Bailey would say - just ensuring the inflation target is met...). What will happen this year? It's going to be very interesting to say the least. The ECB has been very quiet on asset purchases and the Fed's comments yesterday have not offered the market much encouragement. We cannot get away with more QE than other nations are undertaking lest we put Sterling in the toilet.

The other significant development is the number of US states which are re-opening. Even Germany is preparing to loosen restrictions. The UK's caution on the subject may be their undoing at least in a financial sense.

[danllama]

Flooble said:

danllama said:

How do you get to that age in life and not have a shred of critical thinking in you? I'm sure they're lovely people and I'm furious at the government for terrifying them to such an extent, so let's just give them the benefit of the doubt. In some ways I envy their utter trust in these scum bags.

It is surprisingly easy. The older you get the harder it is to actually care enough to make your own decision. When you are young you have time to recover from a bad choice ("I wish I hadn't taken out a 3 year PCP for this Golf R, boy is it boring"). Get to a certain age and there is comfort in routine and having someone else do the thinking for you, never questioning it ("I'm glad that the nice salesman told us a Kia Sorento was the ideal car, it's lovely")

Plus it is important to remember that someone in their 80s will have been at work during an era where deference to your superiors was a given and many more jobs than today were of the repetitive non-thinking type that have since been either automated or moved offshore. So an 80 year old who never enjoyed thinking for them self could have led a happy and productive life without ever needing to do anything other than follow simple instructions.

Yeah I guess I hadn't thought of it that way 👍🏻