CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)

[Jimmy No Hands]

pincher said:

The look of bewilderment, incredulity and disbelief at what he was being told on the presenter’s face is priceless

Your face when someone goes against the narrative. Can almost hear the producers in his ear.

[boxsey]

danllama said:

JagLover said:

jmflare said:

Matt_N said:

That’s brilliant to see, not only from the police POV but also that the BBC were obviously not expecting that line in the interview!

The BBC were obviously frothing at the prospect of the police coming on to tell off all those naughty people daring to drive for a walk on the beach and got the exact opposite

The BBC presenter said there were many people incensed that they saw people were walking on a beach. I find this much more scary than the virus itself.

Yes

It is a public service broadcaster whipping up the mob rather than reporting the news calmly and without bias (which is its remit).

Hence the BBC losing fee payers in their droves, including our household over a year ago.

To be fair, ITV news have been just as bad for promoting the fear, reporting on those despicable lockdown law breakers and hailing the 'lockdown heroes'. Can't wait for tonight's inevitable piece by Emily Morgan to present the case for a 12% pay rise for our NHS heroes and for Mary Nightingale to tell us to "stay well, stay safe and stay at home"

[Ntv]

Jimmy No Hands said:

pincher said:

The look of bewilderment, incredulity and disbelief at what he was being told on the presenter’s face is priceless

Your face when someone goes against the narrative. Can almost hear the producers in his ear.

Dear old Auntie has, throughout this pandemic, gold-plated the law,and often referred to guidelines as "rules". For much of 2020 the BBC regarded the "rules", largely guidance, as wholly binding on the population. Just part of their spreading of misinformation.

I have R4 on right now, and just a few moments ago there was a feature on World at One about buying houses remotely, without even visiting the house. The BBC described visiting houses for sale that were some distance away as "not allowed". Really? What part of the law states that viewing a house for potential purchase is against the law / not a reasonable excuse to leave home?

[Jasandjules]

Alucidnation said:

I hear Cyprus are opening up to us if we can prove a negative test or vaccination.

At least that will give people the opportunity to get away to foreign lands over summer.

I hope that no-one takes up that offer. Not until there are no such requirements. That is the only way it will end.

[Graveworm]

Elysium said:

I fear I am going to regret engaging with you on this, but I genuinely cannot imagine how you have managed to look at that image and determine that Brazil's data offers evidence against seasonality.

As a reminder, this is Hope Simpsons graph showing the typical seasonal pattern of influenza:



And this is a comparison of COVID deaths in the UK and Brazil:



Brazil is massive. Including lattitudes that range from the bottom of the North Tropical zone down to the upper part of the South Temperate zone.

What I see when I look at the data is a 'late seasonal effect' for the first wave, with the second wave occuring right where you would expect it.

Just as we have seen right across the North Temperate zone, including the UK

Is this a Rorschach test where you get to decide what you are seeing.
Only a tiny portion is North of the equator and even that is definitely equatorial rather than North Tropical. Over 95% of the population (That's who die and get sick) live south of the equatorial and sub tropical area. The charts I posted are specific to Brazil as a whole and based on data from Brazil and 89 other tropical countries from 2000-2015 not a general chart based on 1964-1975. Brazil has one seasonal peak between April and June, no or low activity the rest of the year. How is that right where you would expect in any universe.

[Alucidnation]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I was genuinely pointing it out tbh.

And surely, as we could go from the end of May, and at the rate that vaccines are being dished out, there wouldn't be that many left to do by then.

And it's not like they have to go on the exact date of 'release'?

[bern]

deebs said:

Sturgeons briefing, along with Scotland's national clinical director, Jason leitch:

"Jason Leitch jumps in and mentions ongoing trials of vaccines in young children.

He says in time we will "almost certainly" vaccinate children and this would perhaps be in round two in the autumn/winter of this year if trials go well.

He adds that vaccination at scale is about protecting the population, even the unvaccinated."

That is absolutely insane. I've a son who is 6, the idea I will be asked in autumn to get him vaccinated with a vaccine thats been on trial for a maximum of 8 months or so for children, which offers him no benefit is bonkers. Beyond incredible.

I've informed my MP he can crawl over my dead body to administer the jab to my son's. Absolutely fking lunacy.

[Alucidnation]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Ok.

[Elysium]

Graveworm said:

Elysium said:

I fear I am going to regret engaging with you on this, but I genuinely cannot imagine how you have managed to look at that image and determine that Brazil's data offers evidence against seasonality.

As a reminder, this is Hope Simpsons graph showing the typical seasonal pattern of influenza:



And this is a comparison of COVID deaths in the UK and Brazil:



Brazil is massive. Including lattitudes that range from the bottom of the North Tropical zone down to the upper part of the South Temperate zone.

What I see when I look at the data is a 'late seasonal effect' for the first wave, with the second wave occuring right where you would expect it.

Just as we have seen right across the North Temperate zone, including the UK

Is this a Rorschach test where you get to decide what you are seeing.
Only a tiny portion is North of the equator and even that is definitely equatorial rather than North Tropical. Over 95% of the population (That's who die and get sick) live south of the equatorial and sub tropical area. The charts I posted are specific to Brazil as a whole and based on data from Brazil and 89 other tropical countries from 2000-2015 not a general chart based on 1964-1975. Brazil has one seasonal peak between April and June, no or low activity the rest of the year. How is that right where you would expect in any universe.

I knew I would regret it. The only purpose to your posts on this thread is to entice people into pointless and pedantic arguments.

Based on the extensive data now available I think it is ridiculous to argue that SARS-CoV-2 is not seasonal. That includes the data available for Brazil.

I am not going to debate this further with you, because I know it would be a complete waste of my time. Pick a stupid argument with someone else.

[Graveworm]

Ntv said:

I've read it is well established that "seasonal" respiratory viruses are significantly less seasonal in the tropics, for obvious reasons. Whatever underlying seasonality there is in Brazil could perhaps be drowned out by other factors over an unsettled period for this virus.

It's not just Brazil. A different seasonality pattern is still a seasonality pattern. For all other seasonal viruses they are all seasonal without exception. This seasonal virus is only seasonal in the northern Hemisphere.
It hasn't followed the pattern in Southern Tropical or Southern temperate (The few countries that are in that bracket) at all.

Climate will of course impact it, which is not the same thing. It could still be seasonal, but we don't know that yet, as the NPIs will be messing with any data, doesn't mean it is.

[Sahjahd]

JuanCarlosFandango said:

A discernible trickle of these stories now. I suspect in the next few months we will see the whole thing pulled to bits and the government's handling of the affair will be criticised from every angle. The fact that Labour, most of the media and a large chunk of the public supported stricter measures will be easily brushed aside, and Boris will be the villain with a wrecked economy and a mishandled pandemic.

As Johnson is acting dictator, calling the shots, he is entirely responsible; he could have told all the amateur modellers to get lost. He didn't, the fiasco is entirely down to him, and he should face charges for the manslaughter of every person who has needlessly died as a result of his policies, as well as for any corruption which becomes evident in the fullness of time.

[Graveworm]

Elysium said:

I knew I would regret it. The only purpose to your posts on this thread is to entice people into pointless and pedantic arguments.

Based on the extensive data now available I think it is ridiculous to argue that SARS-CoV-2 is not seasonal. That includes the data available for Brazil.

I am not going to debate this further with you, because I know it would be a complete waste of my time. Pick a stupid argument with someone else.

I am not arguing that it is not seasonal I am arguing that saying it looks seasonal in some places, means it is seasonal is not valid as it would be the only seasonal virus that is only seasonal in some places. I am definitely arguing that the distribution in Brazil and the Southern hemisphere isn't seasonal. It could well be seasonal and probably will be but there is not enough evidence yet. Here is the actual Seasonal virus graph for Brazil. It is literally being blind to the evidence if you think that looks like their Covid pattern.

Edited by Graveworm on Friday 5th March 14:12

[alangla]

bern said:

deebs said:

Sturgeons briefing, along with Scotland's national clinical director, Jason leitch:

"Jason Leitch jumps in and mentions ongoing trials of vaccines in young children.

He says in time we will "almost certainly" vaccinate children and this would perhaps be in round two in the autumn/winter of this year if trials go well.

He adds that vaccination at scale is about protecting the population, even the unvaccinated."

That is absolutely insane. I've a son who is 6, the idea I will be asked in autumn to get him vaccinated with a vaccine thats been on trial for a maximum of 8 months or so for children, which offers him no benefit is bonkers. Beyond incredible.

I've informed my MP he can crawl over my dead body to administer the jab to my son's. Absolutely fking lunacy.

Fits with the rest of the ZeroCovid bks that Leitch & his pals are imposing.

[Carrot]

Whats happened to the Covid Recovery Group of late?

[isaldiri]

Graveworm said:

It's not just Brazil. A different seasonality pattern is still a seasonality pattern. For all other seasonal viruses they are all seasonal without exception. This seasonal virus is only seasonal in the northern Hemisphere.
It hasn't followed the pattern in Southern Tropical or Southern temperate (The few countries that are in that bracket) at all.

Climate will of course impact it, which is not the same thing. It could still be seasonal, but we don't know that yet, as the NPIs will be messing with any data, doesn't mean it is.

Only an idiot would think there isn't an element of seasonality to how the virus spreads because of the effect on human behaviour. Saying the effect of covid is affected by seasonality doesn't mean it's necessarily the only or the most important reason for any spread of the virus. The hypothesis is that the impact of the virus is exaggerated by seasonality. That is very obviously the case and it doesn't mean it can't or won't spread in high numbers outside of winter in temperate countries.

Your crowing about Brazil missing the seasonality memo was more indicative of you missing the being dense memo.

Graveworm said:

It could well be seasonal and probably will be but there is not enough evidence yet.

Yup it's just pretty much the entire temperate northern hemisphere that has shown it but ......not enough evidence huh...

Edited by isaldiri on Friday 5th March 14:23

[Ntv]

Graveworm said:

Ntv said:

I've read it is well established that "seasonal" respiratory viruses are significantly less seasonal in the tropics, for obvious reasons. Whatever underlying seasonality there is in Brazil could perhaps be drowned out by other factors over an unsettled period for this virus.

It's not just Brazil. A different seasonality pattern is still a seasonality pattern. For all other seasonal viruses they are all seasonal without exception. This seasonal virus is only seasonal in the northern Hemisphere.
It hasn't followed the pattern in Southern Tropical or Southern temperate (The few countries that are in that bracket) at all.

Climate will of course impact it, which is not the same thing. It could still be seasonal, but we don't know that yet, as the NPIs will be messing with any data, doesn't mean it is.

A large element of seasonal prevalence, as I understand it, is down to increased contact between people indoors.

If this virus doesn't have higher transmission when more people are spending more time together indoors - that aspect of seasonality - then the Government have rather a lot explaining to do in respect of a vast number of their measures, don't you think?

[Ntv]

Graveworm said:

Elysium said:

I knew I would regret it. The only purpose to your posts on this thread is to entice people into pointless and pedantic arguments.

Based on the extensive data now available I think it is ridiculous to argue that SARS-CoV-2 is not seasonal. That includes the data available for Brazil.

I am not going to debate this further with you, because I know it would be a complete waste of my time. Pick a stupid argument with someone else.

I am not arguing that it is not seasonal I am arguing that saying it looks seasonal in some places, means it is seasonal is not valid as it would be the only seasonal virus that is only seasonal in some places. I am definitely arguing that the distribution in Brazil and the Southern hemisphere isn't seasonal. It could well be seasonal and probably will be but there is not enough evidence yet. Here is the actual Seasonal virus graph for Brazil. It is literally being blind to the evidence if you think that looks like their Covid pattern.

Edited by Graveworm on Friday 5th March 14:12

Nah, you're generally overstating your point, and here at least you're being more clear

I agree that the various measures to restrict the virus - esp in Southern hemisphere countries such as Oz and NZ - and critically the newness of the virus will be serving to mask how seasonal the virus is in some countries. But the experience of Europe across two winters, along with what is known about how the virus transmits between people (admittedly quite a bit isn't known), points strongly to seasonality.

You're hung up on a non-issue tbh .

[CAH706]

I don’t have an issue with the nominal pay rise in the NHS but I am looking forward to seeing Hancock explain it away later.... wonder if he will bring out the tears again

As an aside, I bumped into a neighbour in the corner shop earlier. She joked about cutting back on the biscuits due to the tax hit coming then in the next breath said it was outrageous that the NHS was only getting a 1% pay rise. She was surprised that I thought it reasonable given they have a nominal pay rise, job security and a pension to look forward to versus others (myself included) who have lost jobs etc. She also genuinely hadn’t considered that more pay might mean an impact elsewhere and that might be her pocket.
Conversation didn’t go any further as I think we both thought it best to get back to discussing biscuits!!

[paulw123]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Do you mean the 20-39 year olds who have had over a year of their lives wasted and their futures put in jeopardy over a virus with a tiny tiny risk to them. Now they still can’t go on holiday whilst the OAP’s can crack on.

[Graveworm]

isaldiri said:

Yup it's just pretty much the entire temperate northern hemisphere that has shown it but ......not enough evidence huh...

Edited by isaldiri on Friday 5th March 14:23

Please point to another seasonal virus that is only seasonal in the Northern Temperate region and how that would qualify as seasonal even if it was. It's a straw man to keep saying I am saying it's not seasonal. I am not saying it isn't seasonal but I am saying to state boldly yep seasonal when a huge chunk of the data says the opposite is conformational bias.

It isn't showing seasonality in over 50% of the world, so far, and in much of that it is showing the exact opposite, so no there isn't enough evidence.

Edited by Graveworm on Friday 5th March 14:44