CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)
Discussion
Steve vRS said:
alangla said:
It'll be interesting to see what Sturgeon comes out with this afternoon. Several areas of mainland Scotland are now at infection levels that would be tier zero under the old bandings, tier 1 under the new - even urban plague pits like Glasgow would be in tier 2 under the old bandings. Looking at the detailed data that's been published, it looks like several authorities have got very concentrated outbreaks with very little across the rest of their areas. Surely the justification for national restrictions has long gone?
She will not move quicker than England. I’d put a large wager on it but would be happy to be proved wrong. Not a snowball's chance in hell she'll move quicker.
Although, she might - if she thinks it makes her look more reasonable than Boris, just in time for the elections around the corner.
EddieSteadyGo said:
rfsteel said:
This got me thinking, if case numbers are irrelevant due to the @1m tests a day being conducted, isn't cases positivity the way to go, number cases / number cases ?
Taking the data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for Cases by date reported & Virus tests conducted and was able to plot the following;
It is a bit hard to read the scale on your graph, but I agree positivity rates is an important measure, but I would say we should look at PCR positivity rates (to minimise the distortion mass testing acheives).Taking the data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for Cases by date reported & Virus tests conducted and was able to plot the following;
22/04/2020 4451 23073 0.192909461
24/04/2020 5386 28225 0.190823738
21/04/2020 4301 22763 0.188946975
25/04/2020 4913 29058 0.169075642
We as the latest values are;
06/03/2021 6040 452750 0.013340696
05/03/2021 5947 953671 0.006235903
04/03/2021 6573 992812 0.006620589
03/03/2021 6385 863658 0.007392973
02/03/2021 6391 675543 0.009460538
01/03/2021 5455 727972 0.00749342
28/02/2021 6035 526679 0.011458592
edit - cleaned up the axis
Edited by rfsteel on Tuesday 9th March 13:02
Ntv said:
Twinfan said:
Garvin said:
Rising cases . . . . . . so what? The virus isn’t going to be eradicated so there are always going to be surges in the cases just like flu. We are rapidly moving from a pandemic to a casedemic where, if we are not careful, we will be locking down every year from now on because of the surge in cases not because of deaths. We live with flu deaths and we will have to live with flu + covid deaths at a level . . . . . . . . or give up hope of a normal life ever again.
The answer must surely be to up the capacity of the NHS to cope with the new level of flu + covid and get on with things. With the vaccine having been rolled out to all those likely to be hospitalised by end April and the normal reduction in cases over the summer such that the majority of the population will be vaccinated by the next winter onset of cases it makes no sense to me not to lift all restrictions in the next few weeks and certainly by mid-April at the very latest. Unless the vaccine doesn’t really work!!,
It seems more and more people seem to be cottoning on to this. Will the media though? We need pressure to start rising against the Government to speed up the unlock, although the Whitty/Valance show today appear to be trying to counter this view The answer must surely be to up the capacity of the NHS to cope with the new level of flu + covid and get on with things. With the vaccine having been rolled out to all those likely to be hospitalised by end April and the normal reduction in cases over the summer such that the majority of the population will be vaccinated by the next winter onset of cases it makes no sense to me not to lift all restrictions in the next few weeks and certainly by mid-April at the very latest. Unless the vaccine doesn’t really work!!,
That explains why, despite such grave concerns about surges and fourth waves, the N'gales are being closed, and more to the point, why there is no public debate on bolstering NHS flexibility and pandemic capacity.
TheJimi said:
Steve vRS said:
alangla said:
It'll be interesting to see what Sturgeon comes out with this afternoon. Several areas of mainland Scotland are now at infection levels that would be tier zero under the old bandings, tier 1 under the new - even urban plague pits like Glasgow would be in tier 2 under the old bandings. Looking at the detailed data that's been published, it looks like several authorities have got very concentrated outbreaks with very little across the rest of their areas. Surely the justification for national restrictions has long gone?
She will not move quicker than England. I’d put a large wager on it but would be happy to be proved wrong. Not a snowball's chance in hell she'll move quicker.
Although, she might - if she thinks it makes her look more reasonable than Boris, just in time for the elections around the corner.
I was out in a group of 4 on the mountain bike at the weekend from 4 different households. I wasn't the f
king only one.This is a token gesture, seen to be doing something. They must know people have been doing this for months, they bloody well will after Sundays shenanigans.
moanthebairns said:
TheJimi said:
Steve vRS said:
alangla said:
It'll be interesting to see what Sturgeon comes out with this afternoon. Several areas of mainland Scotland are now at infection levels that would be tier zero under the old bandings, tier 1 under the new - even urban plague pits like Glasgow would be in tier 2 under the old bandings. Looking at the detailed data that's been published, it looks like several authorities have got very concentrated outbreaks with very little across the rest of their areas. Surely the justification for national restrictions has long gone?
She will not move quicker than England. I’d put a large wager on it but would be happy to be proved wrong. Not a snowball's chance in hell she'll move quicker.
Although, she might - if she thinks it makes her look more reasonable than Boris, just in time for the elections around the corner.
I was out in a group of 4 on the mountain bike at the weekend from 4 different households. I wasn't the f
king only one.This is a token gesture, seen to be doing something. They must know people have been doing this for months, they bloody well will after Sundays shenanigans.
s. Even Prof Woolhouse, a member of sage, said openly that outdoor transmission risk is very low.Garvin said:
When the hospitalisations and deaths hit rock bottom in the coming weeks surely business will put immense pressure on the government to open up quickly, media will be reporting it and the Tory ‘rebels’ will be on the backs of Boris and Sunak. The more so as the sterilising effect of the vaccines seems to be quite good as well. The spectre of mutations will continue but that risk will be with us forever and a day and we can’t continue to hide from that risk . . . . . . can we?
Really interesting view from an anonymous molecular biologist in the US, who it is strongly suggested works for Moderna. https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/13689217...
If my understanding is correct, she is suggesting that because E484K is so prevalent in all the mutations no matter where they appear, it may be that they are as bad as they are going to get. She doesn't eliminate the possibility that SARS-CoV2 has another couple of tricks up it's sleeve, but is feeling generally optimistic overall.
Whitty and Vallance taking the piss now.
They know the game is up, just can't bring themselves to say "You not what, when we said 'follow the science' we meant 'follow the science if it tells us what we want it to' "
Positive tests dropping at over 30% each week
Daily deaths at seasonal flu levels
Spring coming
23 million vaccinated, 30 million by the end of March
Hospitalisations at 20% of peak and falling
Absolutely no reason why they can't bring things forward a bit, because you know what, I think people would be more likely to stick to the rules if they did.
They know the game is up, just can't bring themselves to say "You not what, when we said 'follow the science' we meant 'follow the science if it tells us what we want it to' "
Positive tests dropping at over 30% each week
Daily deaths at seasonal flu levels
Spring coming
23 million vaccinated, 30 million by the end of March
Hospitalisations at 20% of peak and falling
Absolutely no reason why they can't bring things forward a bit, because you know what, I think people would be more likely to stick to the rules if they did.
Garvin said:
When the hospitalisations and deaths hit rock bottom in the coming weeks surely business will put immense pressure on the government to open up quickly, media will be reporting it and the Tory ‘rebels’ will be on the backs of Boris and Sunak. The more so as the sterilising effect of the vaccines seems to be quite good as well. The spectre of mutations will continue but that risk will be with us forever and a day and we can’t continue to hide from that risk . . . . . . can we?
The only group that can put pressure on the government are the media. And they love lockdown, the media control the millions of Sheep in society the government know this so intern being populist are also controlled by the media. rfsteel said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
rfsteel said:
This got me thinking, if case numbers are irrelevant due to the @1m tests a day being conducted, isn't cases positivity the way to go, number cases / number cases ?
Taking the data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for Cases by date reported & Virus tests conducted and was able to plot the following;
It is a bit hard to read the scale on your graph, but I agree positivity rates is an important measure, but I would say we should look at PCR positivity rates (to minimise the distortion mass testing acheives).Taking the data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for Cases by date reported & Virus tests conducted and was able to plot the following;
22/04/2020 4451 23073 0.192909461
24/04/2020 5386 28225 0.190823738
21/04/2020 4301 22763 0.188946975
25/04/2020 4913 29058 0.169075642
We as the latest values are;
06/03/2021 6040 452750 0.013340696
05/03/2021 5947 953671 0.006235903
04/03/2021 6573 992812 0.006620589
03/03/2021 6385 863658 0.007392973
02/03/2021 6391 675543 0.009460538
01/03/2021 5455 727972 0.00749342
28/02/2021 6035 526679 0.011458592
edit - cleaned up the axis
The massive increase in LFD tests actually makes a surprisingly minor difference to the data. Despite all the LFD noise, cases per 100k tests and cases overall are declining at a predictable rate. Halving every 18 days since the New Year
SCEtoAUX said:
Whitty and Vallance taking the piss now.
They know the game is up, just can't bring themselves to say "You not what, when we said 'follow the science' we meant 'follow the science if it tells us what we want it to' "
Positive tests dropping at over 30% each week
Daily deaths at seasonal flu levels
Spring coming
23 million vaccinated, 30 million by the end of March
Hospitalisations at 20% of peak and falling
Absolutely no reason why they can't bring things forward a bit, because you know what, I think people would be more likely to stick to the rules if they did.
It’s getting harder and harder to justify the restrictions now. Even my clients who have barely left the house in a year are 3 weeks past their jab and cracking on as normal as the restrictions allow. Hoping for a sunny Easter weekend now and let the carnage commence. Gov are so desperate to control the narrative now I have no idea what they will find next. 5.4 million tests last week to ‘find’ 40k cases. Spending money like it’s going out of fashion. They know the game is up, just can't bring themselves to say "You not what, when we said 'follow the science' we meant 'follow the science if it tells us what we want it to' "
Positive tests dropping at over 30% each week
Daily deaths at seasonal flu levels
Spring coming
23 million vaccinated, 30 million by the end of March
Hospitalisations at 20% of peak and falling
Absolutely no reason why they can't bring things forward a bit, because you know what, I think people would be more likely to stick to the rules if they did.
Garvin said:
The more so as the sterilising effect of the vaccines seems to be quite good as well.
What sterilising effect? It's being theorised that it reduces transmission - there is nothing as far as I have seen that says anything about sterilising immunity (especially long term sterilising immunity).danllama said:
I don't know the guy, he doesn't seem to me like he'd care but you wonder how much could be down to some of this mob enjoying the spot light this had brought and not wanting to step out of it into obscurity.
All that aside it would seem that the vaccine is doing its job, keeping people out of hospital and from dying (with COVID).
I've been anti lockdown from pretty much the moment it seemed fairly obvious most of the population weren't at much of a risk of being seriously ill and dying from it.
The thing I can't reconcile myself with, was the situation in the hospitals. It won't be the same across the board but our local hospital was full to the point they had to re-commission an old maternity ward that was due for demolition to stick COVID patients in. Deaths have been low but it seems to choke up hospitals with people who need admitted and need medical attention (I don't know what the average admission time with COVID is) but for a week or two.
I don't know what the answer to this is, like the majority I hope we learn to live with it and never have to lockdown again.
Update on Excess Deaths following todays ONS report:
1. Deaths by age band. I have shared this spreadsheet previoiusly, but now include an estimate of deaths per million population for the entire pandemic to date. A grand total of 809 people under 40 have died. 0.6% of deaths from almost 50% of the population.
27 people per million.
This graph attempts to show the number of people in each age group who have died with COVID (red) or survived the pandemic (blue) by age band. For most ages the deaths are barely visible. For the 90+ group, which is the most significantly impacted, deaths are still just over 5%
3. This graph looks at weekly deaths 'due to' COVID (orange) and non COVID related (blue) and compares them to the 5 year max, min and average. I have also show a green line for the point of statistically significant excess (2 standard deviations) and an 'upper bound' as used by PHE of 3 standard deviations from the mean:
It is now increasingly clear that the first wave consists of a highly unusual spike following a mild winter period. However, the second wave appears to follow a normal seasonal pattern, but at significantly elevated mortality. To be honest, I am surprised at how closely it is tracking past years
1. Deaths by age band. I have shared this spreadsheet previoiusly, but now include an estimate of deaths per million population for the entire pandemic to date. A grand total of 809 people under 40 have died. 0.6% of deaths from almost 50% of the population.
27 people per million.
This graph attempts to show the number of people in each age group who have died with COVID (red) or survived the pandemic (blue) by age band. For most ages the deaths are barely visible. For the 90+ group, which is the most significantly impacted, deaths are still just over 5%
3. This graph looks at weekly deaths 'due to' COVID (orange) and non COVID related (blue) and compares them to the 5 year max, min and average. I have also show a green line for the point of statistically significant excess (2 standard deviations) and an 'upper bound' as used by PHE of 3 standard deviations from the mean:
It is now increasingly clear that the first wave consists of a highly unusual spike following a mild winter period. However, the second wave appears to follow a normal seasonal pattern, but at significantly elevated mortality. To be honest, I am surprised at how closely it is tracking past years
Alucidnation said:
Seems Whitty isn't convinced and has basically said there will be another surge, which makes sense i guess.
"Prof Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, tells the Commons Science and Technology Select Committee that all the modelling shows there will be another surge of the virus despite the vaccination programme."
A study has been done of the Hong King sars virus showing that it could be contagious ip to a distance of 200m. This could explain why despite all the lockdown bulls"Prof Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, tells the Commons Science and Technology Select Committee that all the modelling shows there will be another surge of the virus despite the vaccination programme."
t, seasonal colds, flu snd gastro have all but disappeared but covid is here to stay. Confine the sick and old, let the rest of us live with it and use our immune systems isaldiri said:
Garvin said:
The more so as the sterilising effect of the vaccines seems to be quite good as well.
What sterilising effect? It's being theorised that it reduces transmission - there is nothing as far as I have seen that says anything about sterilising immunity (especially long term sterilising immunity).If there’s not a major spike in the next 2 weeks with schools back then it will be increasingly impossible to maintain the schedule. I know some of the more fringe posters in the thread were hoping for a bit of wide spread disobedience but I think you’ll just see a slow and steady increase in people choosing the rules as the “fear” ebbs away. Especially if we get another hit of good weather towards Easter.
What I can’t understand is why Boris wouldn’t advance it, massive political gain to be made there surely...?
What I can’t understand is why Boris wouldn’t advance it, massive political gain to be made there surely...?
Otispunkmeyer said:
isaldiri said:
Garvin said:
The more so as the sterilising effect of the vaccines seems to be quite good as well.
What sterilising effect? It's being theorised that it reduces transmission - there is nothing as far as I have seen that says anything about sterilising immunity (especially long term sterilising immunity).How can reduced symptoms reduce transmission when we are told, at least 1000 times per day, everywhere, that the driver of all this madness is people without symptoms?
TheJimi said:
moanthebairns said:
TheJimi said:
Steve vRS said:
alangla said:
It'll be interesting to see what Sturgeon comes out with this afternoon. Several areas of mainland Scotland are now at infection levels that would be tier zero under the old bandings, tier 1 under the new - even urban plague pits like Glasgow would be in tier 2 under the old bandings. Looking at the detailed data that's been published, it looks like several authorities have got very concentrated outbreaks with very little across the rest of their areas. Surely the justification for national restrictions has long gone?
She will not move quicker than England. I’d put a large wager on it but would be happy to be proved wrong. Not a snowball's chance in hell she'll move quicker.
Although, she might - if she thinks it makes her look more reasonable than Boris, just in time for the elections around the corner.
I was out in a group of 4 on the mountain bike at the weekend from 4 different households. I wasn't the f
king only one.This is a token gesture, seen to be doing something. They must know people have been doing this for months, they bloody well will after Sundays shenanigans.
s. Even Prof Woolhouse, a member of sage, said openly that outdoor transmission risk is very low.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff