CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)

[Otispunkmeyer]

MiniMan64 said:

If there’s not a major spike in the next 2 weeks with schools back then it will be increasingly impossible to maintain the schedule. I know some of the more fringe posters in the thread were hoping for a bit of wide spread disobedience but I think you’ll just see a slow and steady increase in people choosing the rules as the “fear” ebbs away. Especially if we get another hit of good weather towards Easter.

What I can’t understand is why Boris wouldn’t advance it, massive political gain to be made there surely...?

I thought work had been done now to suggest spreading at primary school at least was a nothing. Secondary might be a different story though.

And yes, I never understood why he said the decisions would be data driven, then proceeded to lay out a timeline with immovable milestone dates. Which is it Boris?

[Boringvolvodriver]

Elysium- thank you for the graphs and spreadsheets.

It would be interesting to see the number of total deaths in each age range band to see how many people have died of other things. And what percentage of the population that equates to as well.

I have tried to look at it before but struggle to collate in an iPad as the ONS spread sheets are hard to read and pull together.

Thanks .

[Ntv]

SCEtoAUX said:

Whitty and Vallance taking the piss now.

They know the game is up, just can't bring themselves to say "You not what, when we said 'follow the science' we meant 'follow the science if it tells us what we want it to' "

Positive tests dropping at over 30% each week
Daily deaths at seasonal flu levels
Spring coming
23 million vaccinated, 30 million by the end of March
Hospitalisations at 20% of peak and falling

Absolutely no reason why they can't bring things forward a bit, because you know what, I think people would be more likely to stick to the rules if they did.

Imagine Chris Whitty singing "I've had the time of my life". Why might he want this to continue??

Sometimes hearing these dudes (and to be fair they are FAR from the most extreme) it's almost as if there isn't a vaccine roll-out.

The "risk of mutation" was their last desperate card (Boris bought it I note - he does come across as incredibly one-dimensional much of the time). It's now not clear why we're keeping restrictions in place for so long.

It can't really be that a few more old dears might die with COVID as they are all acknowledging flu / learn to live with it etc.

I suspect part of the reason is they want Brits to holiday in the UK for economic reasons.

[Otispunkmeyer]

Saweep said:

Otispunkmeyer said:

isaldiri said:

Garvin said:

The more so as the sterilising effect of the vaccines seems to be quite good as well.

What sterilising effect? It's being theorised that it reduces transmission - there is nothing as far as I have seen that says anything about sterilising immunity (especially long term sterilising immunity).

Yes the theory is that reduced symptoms = reduced transmission (in a round about way, someone did correct me that it was to do with binding and neutralising titers, i guess they reduce shedding?)

This is one of those knots that the govt have tied themselves in. Tough one to get out of.

How can reduced symptoms reduce transmission when we are told, at least 1000 times per day, everywhere, that the driver of all this madness is people without symptoms?

Excellent point.

At the start there was big concern with asymptomatic transmission. Based on what I don't know, but they thought early on that it was as high as 80% of people with the virus and no symptoms were passing it on. I think the research now suggests that true asymptomatic spread is much lower. The last one I saw was < 1 in 5 people and of those people, they were 40% less likely to be doing something to spread the virus (like coughing or sneezing). So it has been deemed not a significant spreading vector.

As always there are caveats and one of those is what you class as asymptomatic. There is no agreed line on the sand for that and the line between that and simply pre-symptomatic is blurry.

[isaldiri]

Otispunkmeyer said:

Yes the theory is that reduced symptoms = reduced transmission (in a round about way, someone did correct me that it was to do with binding and neutralising titers, i guess they reduce shedding?)

Yup. Likely lower viral load, less infectious particles and less shedding seems reasonable and what quite a lot of data is suggesting. I'd guess (admittedly not proven) infection recovery and vaccination might provide short term sterilising immunity but the various studies and data so far suggests that will be very unlikely to be lasting I'd suggest.

[TheJimi]

deebs said:

TheJimi said:

moanthebairns said:

TheJimi said:

Steve vRS said:

alangla said:

It'll be interesting to see what Sturgeon comes out with this afternoon. Several areas of mainland Scotland are now at infection levels that would be tier zero under the old bandings, tier 1 under the new - even urban plague pits like Glasgow would be in tier 2 under the old bandings. Looking at the detailed data that's been published, it looks like several authorities have got very concentrated outbreaks with very little across the rest of their areas. Surely the justification for national restrictions has long gone?

She will not move quicker than England. I’d put a large wager on it but would be happy to be proved wrong.

Me too.

Not a snowball's chance in hell she'll move quicker.

Although, she might - if she thinks it makes her look more reasonable than Boris, just in time for the elections around the corner.

She is proposing that 4 people from 2 households can now meet outside, as opposed to 2 people from 2 households.

I was out in a group of 4 on the mountain bike at the weekend from 4 different households. I wasn't the fking only one.

This is a token gesture, seen to be doing something. They must know people have been doing this for months, they bloody well will after Sundays shenanigans.

Utter s. Even Prof Woolhouse, a member of sage, said openly that outdoor transmission risk is very low.

I agree that all that she is likely to announce is socialising rules eased allowing outodoor meeting of four people from two households, and maybe some concessions on kids sport. Which in reality, is "phase 2" of the non-roadmap, which was "unlikely before 15th March". She will probably say these changes are from later in this week, which will mean in reality all she is doing is bringing forward what was Phase 2 by a few days. There's nothing in phase 2 that most reasonable people arent already doing, and blowing a trumpet saying we are doing it early when its really only a few days is just more games.

Absolutely correct.

[monkfish1]

MiniMan64 said:

If there’s not a major spike in the next 2 weeks with schools back then it will be increasingly impossible to maintain the schedule. I know some of the more fringe posters in the thread were hoping for a bit of wide spread disobedience but I think you’ll just see a slow and steady increase in people choosing the rules as the “fear” ebbs away. Especially if we get another hit of good weather towards Easter.

What I can’t understand is why Boris wouldn’t advance it, massive political gain to be made there surely...?

There wont be a major spike in the next 2 weeks. They will maintain the schdule, or even extend it.

How much compliance they get is another matter.

IF they decided to shorten it, SAGE and the Media will be all over it like a rash. They control what Boris does, not the public.

[Ntv]

Otispunkmeyer said:

MiniMan64 said:

If there’s not a major spike in the next 2 weeks with schools back then it will be increasingly impossible to maintain the schedule. I know some of the more fringe posters in the thread were hoping for a bit of wide spread disobedience but I think you’ll just see a slow and steady increase in people choosing the rules as the “fear” ebbs away. Especially if we get another hit of good weather towards Easter.

What I can’t understand is why Boris wouldn’t advance it, massive political gain to be made there surely...?

I thought work had been done now to suggest spreading at primary school at least was a nothing. Secondary might be a different story though.

And yes, I never understood why he said the decisions would be data driven, then proceeded to lay out a timeline with immovable milestone dates. Which is it Boris?

Yes,

Perhaps the Government could explain how data-driven keeping primary schools closed has been?

[Twinfan]

Ntv said:

SCEtoAUX said:

Whitty and Vallance taking the piss now.

They know the game is up, just can't bring themselves to say "You not what, when we said 'follow the science' we meant 'follow the science if it tells us what we want it to' "

Positive tests dropping at over 30% each week
Daily deaths at seasonal flu levels
Spring coming
23 million vaccinated, 30 million by the end of March
Hospitalisations at 20% of peak and falling

Absolutely no reason why they can't bring things forward a bit, because you know what, I think people would be more likely to stick to the rules if they did.

Imagine Chris Whitty singing "I've had the time of my life". Why might he want this to continue??

Sometimes hearing these dudes (and to be fair they are FAR from the most extreme) it's almost as if there isn't a vaccine roll-out.

The "risk of mutation" was their last desperate card (Boris bought it I note - he does come across as incredibly one-dimensional much of the time). It's now not clear why we're keeping restrictions in place for so long.

It can't really be that a few more old dears might die with COVID as they are all acknowledging flu / learn to live with it etc.

I suspect part of the reason is they want Brits to holiday in the UK for economic reasons.

This is the conclusion I'm very much coming to. If the majority or people holiday in the UK it will have a massive economic benefit.

[alangla]

TheJimi said:

deebs said:

TheJimi said:

moanthebairns said:

TheJimi said:

Steve vRS said:

alangla said:

It'll be interesting to see what Sturgeon comes out with this afternoon. Several areas of mainland Scotland are now at infection levels that would be tier zero under the old bandings, tier 1 under the new - even urban plague pits like Glasgow would be in tier 2 under the old bandings. Looking at the detailed data that's been published, it looks like several authorities have got very concentrated outbreaks with very little across the rest of their areas. Surely the justification for national restrictions has long gone?

She will not move quicker than England. I’d put a large wager on it but would be happy to be proved wrong.

Me too.

Not a snowball's chance in hell she'll move quicker.

Although, she might - if she thinks it makes her look more reasonable than Boris, just in time for the elections around the corner.

She is proposing that 4 people from 2 households can now meet outside, as opposed to 2 people from 2 households.

I was out in a group of 4 on the mountain bike at the weekend from 4 different households. I wasn't the fking only one.

This is a token gesture, seen to be doing something. They must know people have been doing this for months, they bloody well will after Sundays shenanigans.

Utter s. Even Prof Woolhouse, a member of sage, said openly that outdoor transmission risk is very low.

I agree that all that she is likely to announce is socialising rules eased allowing outodoor meeting of four people from two households, and maybe some concessions on kids sport. Which in reality, is "phase 2" of the non-roadmap, which was "unlikely before 15th March". She will probably say these changes are from later in this week, which will mean in reality all she is doing is bringing forward what was Phase 2 by a few days. There's nothing in phase 2 that most reasonable people arent already doing, and blowing a trumpet saying we are doing it early when its really only a few days is just more games.

Absolutely correct.

Unfortunately I agree with all of you. The chances of things being faster than England are somewhat similar to the chances of her appearing in the next remix of 3 Lions that Baddiel & Skinner release.

I do think there will be some acceleration of the schools stuff at least - with an election looming and an OECD report into the mess they've made their handling of Scottish education already suppressed, she's not going to want to give the opposition parties more ammo to point at the other parts of the UK & say that they've got their schools back, even though Scottish infection levels are (largely) on the floor.

On other things - I suspect, again, with an election coming up, that it'll be the same Boris + 3 weeks or so as last year rather than the strict ZeroCovid bks that her advisers appear to want. Again, possibly more acceleration if the polls tell her that people have had enough, but who knows.

BTW - Woolhouse isn't someone Nippy appears to recognise. She seems to prefer his colleagues at Edinburgh Uni like Sridhar (who was advocating for full school reopening a couple of weeks ago, but has reverted to lock down forever again)

[alangla]

Twinfan said:

Ntv said:

I suspect part of the reason is they want Brits to holiday in the UK for economic reasons.

This is the conclusion I'm very much coming to. If the majority or people holiday in the UK it will have a massive economic benefit.

If that was the case, why isn't there a push to get hotels & restaurants open for Easter or shortly after?
Even if they didn't think hotels were sensible, caravan sites & self-catering lodges etc should be a goer surely? They're currently showing as 12th April, so missing the main bulk of the holiday.

Edited by alangla on Tuesday 9th March 14:07

[Scotty2]

Outside thinking...
Why not move Easter a couple of weeks...

[Twinfan]

Easter is a touch too soon. Schools have only just gone back, they're watching what happens to cases. Also, the vulnerable haven't all had their second vaccine dose.

Summer is a different matter.

[Twinfan]

Scotty2 said:

Outside thinking...
Why not move Easter a couple of weeks...

Seriously? You do know what Easter is and how it's been defined for hundreds of years, dont you?

[SCEtoAUX]

Of course they could just ask people to holiday in the UK to help the economy.

Bring back Eat Out to Help Out for the summer and people would be all over it.

[Uggers]

Scotty2 said:

Outside thinking...
Why not move Easter a couple of weeks...

Steady now we haven't had Xmas yet remember

[Ahonen]

Twinfan said:

Ntv said:

[

I suspect part of the reason is they want Brits to holiday in the UK for economic reasons.

This is the conclusion I'm very much coming to. If the majority or people holiday in the UK it will have a massive economic benefit.

Ha, well we won't be. The UK is okay for weekends away but I wouldn't dream of going on a proper holiday here.

[superlightr]

Ahonen said:

Twinfan said:

Ntv said:

[

I suspect part of the reason is they want Brits to holiday in the UK for economic reasons.

This is the conclusion I'm very much coming to. If the majority or people holiday in the UK it will have a massive economic benefit.

Ha, well we won't be. The UK is okay for weekends away but I wouldn't dream of going on a proper holiday here.

just to add - its not where you go on holiday but who you are with the counts.

[Scotty2]

Twinfan said:

Scotty2 said:

Outside thinking...
Why not move Easter a couple of weeks...

Seriously? You do know what Easter is and how it's been defined for hundreds of years, dont you?

Something to do with a full moon, the dead rising, all determined by someone claiming a sky fairy told them to roll boiled eggs down a hill
or
Old Pagan spring worship of the coming of better weather...
or
Made up old tripe.

They could always have Easter 2 on 16th to 19th and party on?

[Otispunkmeyer]

Twinfan said:

Ntv said:

SCEtoAUX said:

Whitty and Vallance taking the piss now.

They know the game is up, just can't bring themselves to say "You not what, when we said 'follow the science' we meant 'follow the science if it tells us what we want it to' "

Positive tests dropping at over 30% each week
Daily deaths at seasonal flu levels
Spring coming
23 million vaccinated, 30 million by the end of March
Hospitalisations at 20% of peak and falling

Absolutely no reason why they can't bring things forward a bit, because you know what, I think people would be more likely to stick to the rules if they did.

Imagine Chris Whitty singing "I've had the time of my life". Why might he want this to continue??

Sometimes hearing these dudes (and to be fair they are FAR from the most extreme) it's almost as if there isn't a vaccine roll-out.

The "risk of mutation" was their last desperate card (Boris bought it I note - he does come across as incredibly one-dimensional much of the time). It's now not clear why we're keeping restrictions in place for so long.

It can't really be that a few more old dears might die with COVID as they are all acknowledging flu / learn to live with it etc.

I suspect part of the reason is they want Brits to holiday in the UK for economic reasons.

This is the conclusion I'm very much coming to. If the majority or people holiday in the UK it will have a massive economic benefit.

Kernow residents aren't gonna like it! They don't like it at the best of times.