CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)
Discussion
johnboy1975 said:
How did they get it so badly wrong with the "20k would be a good outcome" in March 2020?
Depends on the timeline they were working on too. It's pretty clear the infection numbers were underestimated early on. If say some less severe restrictions had come in earlier, it's plausible like Germany in spring (probably more due to luck than design) 20k perhaps was plausible- in that initial wave anyway. I don't think that figure was meant to hold for the whole year to be fair to Vallance when he first raised that number.....Terminator X said:
Zoobeef said:
I think the correct response is "yeah but IF it killed the younger population then you'd change your tune".
bYou do appreciate that the older you are the more likely you are to die of anything at all?
TX.
Centre for Disease Control in USA changes rules for Fully Vaccinated People.
It seems that if you are fully vaccinated you can do most things and get back to normal life far quicker than we can in the UK. You can gather indoors, no masks required, gather with unvaccinated people indoors if they do not have an increased risk such as comorbidities. If you have been close to someone with Covid but show no symptoms theres no need for testing or isolation.
This is a very sensible approach in that as the vaccines work, risk is dramatically reduced, and the chances of either transmitting or being infected by the virus, are so small to be meaningless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV7ML38WfXk
Dr John Campbell is even in favour of this nuanced approach which will free up society much more quickly if Boris can get dumb and dumber to shut up and put their "s
t in st out" machines away . We'll be falling over all the oldies now vaccinated getting out and about if the UK follows this approach based on vaccine status.
It seems that if you are fully vaccinated you can do most things and get back to normal life far quicker than we can in the UK. You can gather indoors, no masks required, gather with unvaccinated people indoors if they do not have an increased risk such as comorbidities. If you have been close to someone with Covid but show no symptoms theres no need for testing or isolation.
This is a very sensible approach in that as the vaccines work, risk is dramatically reduced, and the chances of either transmitting or being infected by the virus, are so small to be meaningless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV7ML38WfXk
Dr John Campbell is even in favour of this nuanced approach which will free up society much more quickly if Boris can get dumb and dumber to shut up and put their "s
t in st out" machines away . We'll be falling over all the oldies now vaccinated getting out and about if the UK follows this approach based on vaccine status. isaldiri said:
johnboy1975 said:
How did they get it so badly wrong with the "20k would be a good outcome" in March 2020?
Depends on the timeline they were working on too. It's pretty clear the infection numbers were underestimated early on. If say some less severe restrictions had come in earlier, it's plausible like Germany in spring (probably more due to luck than design) 20k perhaps was plausible- in that initial wave anyway. I don't think that figure was meant to hold for the whole year to be fair to Vallance when he first raised that number.....Whitty said:
“If we can get this down to 20,000 and below, that is a good outcome in terms of where we would hope to get to with this outbreak.”
Uses outbreak, which to my mind (with hindsight) is deliberately ambiguous. To me it feeds into the whole metric of winter "not being particularly severe" and we were over the worst by April. After all, they dont seem to be modelling seasonality......(I accept certain quarters were pushing that winter would be bad, I just dont think that message came over well, particularly when Boris said "back to normal by xmas")
Tony427 said:
Centre for Disease Control in USA changes rules for Fully Vaccinated People.
It seems that if you are fully vaccinated you can do most things and get back to normal life far quicker than we can in the UK. You can gather indoors, no masks required, gather with unvaccinated people indoors if they do not have an increased risk such as comorbidities. If you have been close to someone with Covid but show no symptoms theres no need for testing or isolation.
This is a very sensible approach in that as the vaccines work, risk is dramatically reduced, and the chances of either transmitting or being infected by the virus, are so small to be meaningless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV7ML38WfXk
Dr John Campbell is even in favour of this nuanced approach which will free up society much more quickly if Boris can get dumb and dumber to shut up and put their "st in st out" machines away . We'll be falling over all the oldies now vaccinated getting out and about if the UK follows this approach based on vaccine status.
Someone quoted the CDC guidelines earlier. Very sensible. Did this break in time for our journalists to digest, and question Boris on it in the brief yesterday?It seems that if you are fully vaccinated you can do most things and get back to normal life far quicker than we can in the UK. You can gather indoors, no masks required, gather with unvaccinated people indoors if they do not have an increased risk such as comorbidities. If you have been close to someone with Covid but show no symptoms theres no need for testing or isolation.
This is a very sensible approach in that as the vaccines work, risk is dramatically reduced, and the chances of either transmitting or being infected by the virus, are so small to be meaningless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV7ML38WfXk
Dr John Campbell is even in favour of this nuanced approach which will free up society much more quickly if Boris can get dumb and dumber to shut up and put their "s
t in st out" machines away . We'll be falling over all the oldies now vaccinated getting out and about if the UK follows this approach based on vaccine status. My only concern is - How are they policing / enforcing it?
"I demand to see your vaccination status"johnboy1975 said:
Uses outbreak, which to my mind (with hindsight) is deliberately ambiguous.
To me it feeds into the whole metric of winter "not being particularly severe" and we were over the worst by April. After all, they dont seem to be modelling seasonality......(I accept certain quarters were pushing that winter would be bad, I just dont think that message came over well, particularly when Boris said "back to normal by xmas")
Well Boris was clearly just being utterly stupid when he mentioned normal by Xmas in late summer/autumn. I don't think anyone out of Whitty or Vallance was foolish enough to think everyone who was susceptible had gotten the virus after spring irrespective of what might have been said in early march when ultimately things were a lot more unclear.To me it feeds into the whole metric of winter "not being particularly severe" and we were over the worst by April. After all, they dont seem to be modelling seasonality......(I accept certain quarters were pushing that winter would be bad, I just dont think that message came over well, particularly when Boris said "back to normal by xmas")
johnboy1975 said:
Tony427 said:
Centre for Disease Control in USA changes rules for Fully Vaccinated People.
It seems that if you are fully vaccinated you can do most things and get back to normal life far quicker than we can in the UK. You can gather indoors, no masks required, gather with unvaccinated people indoors if they do not have an increased risk such as comorbidities. If you have been close to someone with Covid but show no symptoms theres no need for testing or isolation.
This is a very sensible approach in that as the vaccines work, risk is dramatically reduced, and the chances of either transmitting or being infected by the virus, are so small to be meaningless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV7ML38WfXk
Dr John Campbell is even in favour of this nuanced approach which will free up society much more quickly if Boris can get dumb and dumber to shut up and put their "st in st out" machines away . We'll be falling over all the oldies now vaccinated getting out and about if the UK follows this approach based on vaccine status.
Someone quoted the CDC guidelines earlier. Very sensible. Did this break in time for our journalists to digest, and question Boris on it in the brief yesterday?It seems that if you are fully vaccinated you can do most things and get back to normal life far quicker than we can in the UK. You can gather indoors, no masks required, gather with unvaccinated people indoors if they do not have an increased risk such as comorbidities. If you have been close to someone with Covid but show no symptoms theres no need for testing or isolation.
This is a very sensible approach in that as the vaccines work, risk is dramatically reduced, and the chances of either transmitting or being infected by the virus, are so small to be meaningless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV7ML38WfXk
Dr John Campbell is even in favour of this nuanced approach which will free up society much more quickly if Boris can get dumb and dumber to shut up and put their "s
t in st out" machines away . We'll be falling over all the oldies now vaccinated getting out and about if the UK follows this approach based on vaccine status. My only concern is - How are they policing / enforcing it?
"I demand to see your vaccination status"It's also in my view a massive two fingers up at young people who also generally don't suffer any sort of severe illness but have still had to put their lives on hold for over a year. But as soon as some 70 year old gets vaccinated they can go and meet all their elderly friends. f
k'em.It would be interesting to compare comparative death/infection stats for a 18-25 year olds vs vaccinated 75+ year olds. I wouldn't be surprised if the elderly still come off worse.
gazapc said:
Such measures will never be considered here in the UK. It goes completely against the 'look them in the eyes' type mantra, the messaging on asymptomatic spread, and the blanket lockdown policy used by the Government.
It's also in my view a massive two fingers up at young people who also generally don't suffer any sort of severe illness but have still had to put their lives on hold for over a year. But as soon as some 70 year old gets vaccinated they can go and meet all their elderly friends. fk'em.
It would be interesting to compare comparative death/infection stats for a 18-25 year olds vs vaccinated 75+ year olds. I wouldn't be surprised if the elderly still come off worse.
Bit unfair on unvaccinated youngsters, who don't have the freedom to mix with others, I agree, but it does mean that intergenerational family gatherings will be allowed without restrictions. Grandparents, parents and kids together again, at last. It's also in my view a massive two fingers up at young people who also generally don't suffer any sort of severe illness but have still had to put their lives on hold for over a year. But as soon as some 70 year old gets vaccinated they can go and meet all their elderly friends. f
k'em.It would be interesting to compare comparative death/infection stats for a 18-25 year olds vs vaccinated 75+ year olds. I wouldn't be surprised if the elderly still come off worse.
I also think this will be the thin edge of the wedge in that once everyone starts meeting normally, the other restrictions will become completely redundant and discredited.
People will be making their own risk analysis and not relying on Sage to decide if you can hold your mothers hand. Not that I listen to those b'stards anyway. But some people do.
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
tigamilla said:
Apologies if I've missed it, but what's triggered #sackwhitty to trend on Twitter? I mean it's great, but why?
People are probably sick of being told the boogyman is living permanently behind the sofa.Biker 1 said:
All this talk of the rules: how many people are actually following them still?
We were discussing this at work yesterday. The number of people 100% in compliance must be in single % digits. The essential travel rule for starters, there is no way on gods green earth a majority of people can put their hands up and say they’ve only left the house for truly essential journeys. Then there’s those who meet others for “exercise”, walking along the seafront the other day exercising my way to the cafe I noticed that everyone else seemingly required caffeine to exercise and often in small groups, funny how you can just bump into friends when you’re out and about. Then we have those who will invite someone into their house for a quick chat because it’s not very warm out, maybe have someone round for dinner on mental health grounds etc etc. I’d suggest the majority of the public are starting the creep we saw last year where we were mostly acting just outside the rules and then the rule would change to fit what we were already doing.And that’s how a just culture works. People break rules that aren’t proportionate or necessary and then the rules must be changed to fit. Now if they could open the barbers and the pubs I’d be very appreciative, my hair looks bloody ridiculous and I’d like a proper pint.
Biker 1 said:
All this talk of the rules: how many people are actually following them still?
My parents and OH parents are still taking it pretty seriously...we tend to stay local when we go out and about only because there has been hassle with the police in some of the usual places we go hiking so cba with it and there was talk of locals messing with cars etc.Apart from that there isn't much else to do
djc206 said:
Biker 1 said:
All this talk of the rules: how many people are actually following them still?
We were discussing this at work yesterday. The number of people 100% in compliance must be in single % digits. The essential travel rule for starters, there is no way on gods green earth a majority of people can put their hands up and say they’ve only left the house for truly essential journeys. Then there’s those who meet others for “exercise”, walking along the seafront the other day exercising my way to the cafe I noticed that everyone else seemingly required caffeine to exercise and often in small groups, funny how you can just bump into friends when you’re out and about. Then we have those who will invite someone into their house for a quick chat because it’s not very warm out, maybe have someone round for dinner on mental health grounds etc etc. I’d suggest the majority of the public are starting the creep we saw last year where we were mostly acting just outside the rules and then the rule would change to fit what we were already doing.And that’s how a just culture works. People break rules that aren’t proportionate or necessary and then the rules must be changed to fit. Now if they could open the barbers and the pubs I’d be very appreciative, my hair looks bloody ridiculous and I’d like a proper pint.
It’s been ignored throughout here, but in the past few weeks the number ignoring it has grown.
survivalist said:
I thought you were allowed to meet people outside for recreation now, not just exercise?
It’s been ignored throughout here, but in the past few weeks the number ignoring it has grown.
The outdoor recreation rule came in on the 8th but it’s still only your household, bubble or with one other person. People have been doing that for a long time and not in such limited groups and rightly so, it’s outdoors, the risks are minimal and the benefits enormous.It’s been ignored throughout here, but in the past few weeks the number ignoring it has grown.
Another roaring success for Dildo Harding
No evidence £22bn test-and-trace scheme cut Covid rates in England
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/10/no-e...
No evidence £22bn test-and-trace scheme cut Covid rates in England
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/10/no-e...
Jordan210 said:
Another roaring success for Dildo Harding
No evidence £22bn test-and-trace scheme cut Covid rates in England
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/10/no-e...
Absolutely zero surprise there. Twice a week LF testing of school kids I think will go the same way. What an utter waste of £££.No evidence £22bn test-and-trace scheme cut Covid rates in England
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/10/no-e...
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Agree with this and would add they will claim the credit. However, unless this is the first respiratory virus in history that doesn't affect fewer people in warmer months, expect more restrictions later in the year with the arrival of the Death Star airborne mutant variant (aka people start dying of flu and pneumonia in their tens of thousands like most years). The other thing is that the great rebellion of the unwashed is largely a function of the very mild weather. Let's see how how keen people are to exercise outside over the next few days if the expected bad weather arrives. The government knows it cannot keep people indoors when the sun shines unless they are terrified (GOTO Death Star variant) so relaxation/lack of enforcement was always on the cards. The only hope for a return to 2019 levels of normality is if the current group of influencing scientists is changed or their terms of reference are changed.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
My kids flew the nest several years ago, so doesn't directly affect me. However, at £5/pop, this is costing around £10million/week or thereabouts(?) in taxpayers hard earned, & no doubt there is already a mega contract in place with BJ's mates, so not much hope of a refund....See Whitty partly banging on about not easing restrictions quickly (despite data...) because the vaccine hasn’t or won’t work for some people - why should that affect the millions for whom it does work?
Wife’s aunt needs to have her leg amputated as her body has rejected the new knee - should we stop all knee replacements?
Wife’s aunt needs to have her leg amputated as her body has rejected the new knee - should we stop all knee replacements?
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