CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)

[Otispunkmeyer]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56340831

Test and trace: no clear impact. (BBC as well)


Who knew?


Must be hard for the BBC, it's against the narrative, but at the same time at great story on a Tory government blow torching stacks of cash for little gain.

[Otispunkmeyer]

Biker 1 said:

All this talk of the rules: how many people are actually following them still?

Judging by what goes round here: no one.

[paulw123]

djc206 said:

Biker 1 said:

All this talk of the rules: how many people are actually following them still?

We were discussing this at work yesterday. The number of people 100% in compliance must be in single % digits. The essential travel rule for starters, there is no way on gods green earth a majority of people can put their hands up and say they’ve only left the house for truly essential journeys. Then there’s those who meet others for “exercise”, walking along the seafront the other day exercising my way to the cafe I noticed that everyone else seemingly required caffeine to exercise and often in small groups, funny how you can just bump into friends when you’re out and about. Then we have those who will invite someone into their house for a quick chat because it’s not very warm out, maybe have someone round for dinner on mental health grounds etc etc. I’d suggest the majority of the public are starting the creep we saw last year where we were mostly acting just outside the rules and then the rule would change to fit what we were already doing.

And that’s how a just culture works. People break rules that aren’t proportionate or necessary and then the rules must be changed to fit. Now if they could open the barbers and the pubs I’d be very appreciative, my hair looks bloody ridiculous and I’d like a proper pint.

Pondering this the other day whilst one of the governments disgusting adverts was on the radio. I genuinely think if you had followed all the rules/guidance to the the letter in the past year most people would be in a very serious mental state.
Whatever the outcome of this I can’t and won’t ever forgive the government on their handeling of this ‘crisis’

[paulw123]

Otispunkmeyer said:

Biker 1 said:

All this talk of the rules: how many people are actually following them still?

Judging by what goes round here: no one.

Good. Roll on a nice sunny Easter weekend.

[isaldiri]

Otispunkmeyer said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56340831

Test and trace: no clear impact. (BBC as well)


Who knew?


Must be hard for the BBC, it's against the narrative, but at the same time at great story on a Tory government blow torching stacks of cash for little gain.

It's i believe been observed by some of the mathematicians looking at infection stats (in particular wes pegden on twitter) that test and trace hasn't really been shown to work ie make a significant difference anywhere in the world - not even in south korea. It's a bit like masks, it's simply taken as an article of faith it works so it does...

[richardxjr]

Next door had a 60th yesterday, really nice to see the close family come in, son, daughter in law and their 2 little girls. Excellent stuff

We'll get my folks round either Mothers day or at least Easter. Inside, not freezing half to death outside. Both they and my missus are vaccinated now, there are no local cases for a while anyway, so why the hell not.

[Otispunkmeyer]

djc206 said:

Biker 1 said:

All this talk of the rules: how many people are actually following them still?

We were discussing this at work yesterday. The number of people 100% in compliance must be in single % digits. The essential travel rule for starters, there is no way on gods green earth a majority of people can put their hands up and say they’ve only left the house for truly essential journeys. Then there’s those who meet others for “exercise”, walking along the seafront the other day exercising my way to the cafe I noticed that everyone else seemingly required caffeine to exercise and often in small groups, funny how you can just bump into friends when you’re out and about. Then we have those who will invite someone into their house for a quick chat because it’s not very warm out, maybe have someone round for dinner on mental health grounds etc etc. I’d suggest the majority of the public are starting the creep we saw last year where we were mostly acting just outside the rules and then the rule would change to fit what we were already doing.

And that’s how a just culture works. People break rules that aren’t proportionate or necessary and then the rules must be changed to fit. Now if they could open the barbers and the pubs I’d be very appreciative, my hair looks bloody ridiculous and I’d like a proper pint.

Same with swimming. Club organised swimming was banned, but you could individually go for a public swimming session. Yes, we all just happened to turn up to the very same public swimming sessions....strange that.

[Biker 1]

paulw123 said:

Whatever the outcome of this I can’t and won’t ever forgive the government on their handeling of this ‘crisis’

AGREED. CAPS LOCK FOR EMPHASIS

[Carrot]

Biker 1 said:

paulw123 said:

Whatever the outcome of this I can’t and won’t ever forgive the government on their handeling of this ‘crisis’

AGREED. CAPS LOCK FOR EMPHASIS

Yep, and I won't forgive a large section of the general public for allowing this to continue.

[Bullett]

As it's been most of the way through, people are saying one thing and doing another.

I know at least one Karen who's screeching on FB about rule breakers but actually taking a very liberal view on following them herself.
In reality most people with kids seem to have multiple bubbles and have for some time. Accidentally meeting people when out for a walk or doing a permitted activity. We've had quite a few 'workmen' round.
All the neighbours are the same.

Roads were really quite busy this morning.

[Carrot]

Bullett said:

As it's been most of the way through, people are saying one thing and doing another.

I know at least one Karen who's screeching on FB about rule breakers but actually taking a very liberal view on following them herself.
In reality most people with kids seem to have multiple bubbles and have for some time. Accidentally meeting people when out for a walk or doing a permitted activity. We've had quite a few 'workmen' round.
All the neighbours are the same.

Roads were really quite busy this morning.

The chavs next door were all up for clapping on a thursday and screaming yayyy or something. Yet they decided to throw parties with multiple households throughout.

I'm not judging them on it, the rules are fking retarded based on the evidence, however at least be a little bit discreet about it or don't virtue signal loudly into the night first... jesus...

[R Mutt]

Otispunkmeyer said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56340831

Test and trace: no clear impact. (BBC as well)


Who knew?


Must be hard for the BBC, it's against the narrative, but at the same time at great story on a Tory government blow torching stacks of cash for little gain.

Well people will just see that as the 'wrong type of T&T' just like they say we implemented the wrong type of lockdown, based on nothing but success in some asian countries but nowhere in Europe. They will also insist it when wrong because it was operated by the private sector.

[Boringvolvodriver]

Bullett said:

As it's been most of the way through, people are saying one thing and doing another.

I know at least one Karen who's screeching on FB about rule breakers but actually taking a very liberal view on following them herself.
In reality most people with kids seem to have multiple bubbles and have for some time. Accidentally meeting people when out for a walk or doing a permitted activity. We've had quite a few 'workmen' round.
All the neighbours are the same.

Roads were really quite busy this morning.

Hypocrisy is the only virus that is out of control at the moment and has been throughout

[V88Dicky]

Biker 1 said:

All this talk of the rules: how many people are actually following them still?

My mate has been meeting up and going mountain biking with several of his pals a couple of times a week, even stopping for a coffee!! the lucky bugger.

Although, like me, he still can’t see his wider circle of friends for a pint, or take his OH out for a meal, or go on holiday.

At least like him I can go to work and count that as part of my social life

[isaldiri]

Taylor James said:

However, unless this is the first respiratory virus in history that doesn't affect fewer people in warmer months, expect more restrictions later in the year with the arrival of the Death Star airborne mutant variant (aka people start dying of flu and pneumonia in their tens of thousands like most years).

The only hope for a return to 2019 levels of normality is if the current group of
influencing scientists is changed or their terms of reference are changed.

You see I genuinely wonder why some people are seeming so desperately wishing for restrictions to return in winter for flu etc .... mainly it seems so they can say 'i told you so'.

Unlike some I still even at this point don't think people like Whitty and Vallance etc are doing or saying whatever they have out of some desire to destroy capitalist society or to setup whatever nefarious future planned for us by the not so secret group of 'elites' otherwise known as the WEF.

Restrictions look like they have been broadly set in place to preserve NHS capacity and in particular ICU/critical capacity. In a normal/mild flu winter, we have about 3k on average. In a bad flu winter that goes up to 3200-3300. In spring 2020 we had ~4500. By early nov with mainly only the north of England affected icu capacity was already at 3000 ish. At the high point of jan it was 5000+. Restrictions as implemented here were extremely crude and badly targeted of course but whether through lack of imagination or ability to think otherwise or more just plain political cowardice, nothing else other than blanket restrictions were considered.

That risk of very high numbers in icu isn't present anymore given the high levels of vaccination rollout in the elderly groups. Sure it's theoretically possible from modelling that if everyone gets infected again then high-ish numbers will start appearing in hospitals or dropping dead again but real life data (ie last summer) suggests that is very unlikely and by winter the over 50s will be long done and then there simply isn't that risk even if a severe flu winter happens again, especially as we've quite a few less vulnerable people to respiratory illnesses....

[Sheepshanks]

smashing said:

Biker 1 said:

All this talk of the rules: how many people are actually following them still?

My parents and OH parents are still taking it pretty seriously...we tend to stay local when we go out and about only because there has been hassle with the police in some of the usual places we go hiking so cba with it and there was talk of locals messing with cars etc.

Apart from that there isn't much else to do

Our older (70's+) neighbours are all still taking it pretty seriously - relatives calling are being spoken to from half-way down the drive etc.

We normally have one of our daughters and her two little kids to stay a couple of nights in the week but we haven't been doing that - we'd be OKish (slightly bothered that all little kids do seem to catch everything going) to do it, but she works in the NHS and is more bothered about the implications of being caught. They are still calling in now and again, but she leaves her car around the corner!

[Boringvolvodriver]

isaldiri said:

Taylor James said:

However, unless this is the first respiratory virus in history that doesn't affect fewer people in warmer months, expect more restrictions later in the year with the arrival of the Death Star airborne mutant variant (aka people start dying of flu and pneumonia in their tens of thousands like most years).

The only hope for a return to 2019 levels of normality is if the current group of
influencing scientists is changed or their terms of reference are changed.

You see I genuinely wonder why some people are seeming so desperately wishing for restrictions to return in winter for flu etc .... mainly it seems so they can say 'i told you so'.

Unlike some I still even at this point don't think people like Whitty and Vallance etc are doing or saying whatever they have out of some desire to destroy capitalist society or to setup whatever nefarious future planned for us by the not so secret group of 'elites' otherwise known as the WEF.

Restrictions look like they have been broadly set in place to preserve NHS capacity and in particular ICU/critical capacity. In a normal/mild flu winter, we have about 3k on average. In a bad flu winter that goes up to 3200-3300. In spring 2020 we had ~4500. By early nov with mainly only the north of England affected icu capacity was already at 3000 ish. At the high point of jan it was 5000+. Restrictions as implemented here were extremely crude and badly targeted of course but whether through lack of imagination or ability to think otherwise or more just plain political cowardice, nothing else other than blanket restrictions were considered.

That risk of very high numbers in icu isn't present anymore given the high levels of vaccination rollout in the elderly groups. Sure it's theoretically possible from modelling that if everyone gets infected again then high-ish numbers will start appearing in hospitals or dropping dead again but real life data (ie last summer) suggests that is very unlikely and by winter the over 50s will be long done and then there simply isn't that risk even if a severe flu winter happens again, especially as we've quite a few less vulnerable people to respiratory illnesses....

I don’t disagree with what you have said there. My question, not for a response but just musing, is why ate Whitty, Valance and SAGE still looking at models which we all know depend on what data you out in and still coming out with the doom and gloom?

I know they are scientists who will want to see evidence before making decisions although reading through some of the replies at the Select Committee yesterday, they did make it clear that many decisions are for the politicians to make.

In that case, their public utterances should be prefaced with “this is the scientific view but of course, the government has the final say”

[Blue62]

isaldiri said:

It's i believe been observed by some of the mathematicians looking at infection stats (in particular wes pegden on twitter) that test and trace hasn't really been shown to work ie make a significant difference anywhere in the world - not even in south korea. It's a bit like masks, it's simply taken as an article of faith it works so it does...

I read somewhere that to be effective T&T requires an infected rate of less than 10,000. I know a handful of people who have tested positive and had the virus, two of them doctors, none had any contact at all.

So many on here and elsewhere have bragged about leaving false details in pubs etc that you can’t help feeling it’s been a monumental waste of money, hopefully it will be one of the lessons learned.

[GT03ROB]

Biker 1 said:

All this talk of the rules: how many people are actually following them still?

Having been back in the UK for 2 weeks now, from what I can see nobody. Aside from shops, pubs, restaurants being closed, I honestly can't see any difference to the norm.

[isaldiri]

Boringvolvodriver said:

I don’t disagree with what you have said there. My question, not for a response but just musing, is why ate Whitty, Valance and SAGE still looking at models which we all know depend on what data you out in and still coming out with the doom and gloom?

I know they are scientists who will want to see evidence before making decisions although reading through some of the replies at the Select Committee yesterday, they did make it clear that many decisions are for the politicians to make.

In that case, their public utterances should be prefaced with “this is the scientific view but of course, the government has the final say”

Fully agree on the last bit there. Ultimately 'the science' or the modelling in this case only provides a guide as to what may or may not happen under a certain set of assumptions. How likely or otherwise those assumptions hold true are entirely conjecture. It's up to the politicians to believe whatever science they want to - given the volume of stuff published about covid it seems entirely possible to find 'peer reviewed studies' that can support diametrically different opinions after all.

On your earlier musing, I suppose (and I am giving the benefit of doubt here) the numbers of deaths has made people like whitty much more cautious than they might otherwise have been. It's only human to feel at least at part responsible for the response that has ended up with a rather high level of deaths I suppose and unlike a politician the likes of Whitty or Vallance probably would feel quite troubled by that.