2021 Budget Predictions
Discussion
sgtBerbatov said:
Previous said:
I'd like to see an online sales levy. Yes, its be the consumer who pays, but isn't that ultimately the case for any tax?
Perhaps a rebate for the above for uk based bricks and mortar.... but that won't happen.
Probably the only way to get amazon and the like paying anywhere near reasonable amounts.
Reduction in higher rate pension relief: I hope they don't do this, if they do they've lost my vote next time around on this alone.
The latter i saw being discussed on a number of news sites, so almost certainly a leak and gauge the reaction approach.
Stamp duty cut extended
Help to buy expansion in some way?
The only reason online companies are being targetted, such as Amazon, is because big retailers on the high street are seeing their own profits suffer. Tesco, for example, is calling for a windfall tax on Amazon. Fair enough, but can't Tesco also have a windfall tax? Given that they sell cards and clothes while many other independent shops haven't had the luxury. So their businesses are unsustainable, meaning they'll likely have to shut up shop. But Tesco won't.Perhaps a rebate for the above for uk based bricks and mortar.... but that won't happen.
Probably the only way to get amazon and the like paying anywhere near reasonable amounts.
Reduction in higher rate pension relief: I hope they don't do this, if they do they've lost my vote next time around on this alone.
The latter i saw being discussed on a number of news sites, so almost certainly a leak and gauge the reaction approach.
Stamp duty cut extended
Help to buy expansion in some way?
In an ideal world, retail companies that were able to open as normal during this pandemic would've likely seen an increase in turnover, should be taxed and other companies that weren't so lucky should be given a tax break. That includes online stores. But that's not going to happen, as it's far too much of a good idea to happen. Plus I dare say there would be lobbyists working against the idea.
However, really, why do people use Amazon? They use it not because of the price (because for quite a fair few things, Amazon aren't the cheapest), it's because of the convenience. People know they can order something Monday evening, and have it on their doorstep Tuesday morning. They pay £70 a year for Prime, and because of that they don't "pay" for postage.
Brick and mortar stores like Tesco, like JD Sports, like John Lewis, could do this if they wanted to. But they either don't want to spend the money, or spend it in the wrong places, and can't compete. So the easiest thing for them to do is cry about online stores ruining the high street when the very same companies did the same to independents for decades prior.
Welshbeef said:
fat80b said:
CraigyMc said:
Profits should be taxed where they occur, not "where the business wants to move them to for tax reasons".
Stop and think about what you are suggesting.......Now every small business who sells to individuals spread across 20 countries around the world needs to pay the tax on a share of the profit in each of those countries where it made a sale.
How is this supposed to work in practice in a global economy?
Murph7355 said:
wormus said:
Murph7355 said:
There are quite a few things not covered, but the principle is correct.
Osbourne covered it the right way, IMO, by increasing dividend taxes. Applied across the board and notionally "fair". The government's continued push on things like IR35, however, will have significant unintended consequences IMO and I suspect will likely net them less tax.
I still don’t understand this argument. In the case of IR35, the government wants all disguised employees to behave as employees and pay the same amount of tax. Sure your one man band company (your employer) will end up paying ERS NI but so does everyone else’s. You can argue you’ll get paid a lower “day rate” as an employee so will end up paying less tax but all that’s happening is somebody else is paying it into the Treasury instead. There’s just less of it going into your pocket.Osbourne covered it the right way, IMO, by increasing dividend taxes. Applied across the board and notionally "fair". The government's continued push on things like IR35, however, will have significant unintended consequences IMO and I suspect will likely net them less tax.
As noted, the differential in the differing ways people get paid is largely very small these days. Larger companies start from smaller ones. Taxation needs to be geared to encourage this (IMO), amongst other things, even if chunks of companies never actually become bigger.
The definition of "disguised" employment is very poor away from the obvious extremes (IR35 was original pitched as the Friday-Monday regulation, where people couldn't be an FTE for a company on a Friday and then be a Ltd company doing the same work for the same "customer" on a Monday). But rather than address this properly, the govt use heavy handed techniques to encourage/force people down a particular path.
This has already bitten their own workforce to a degree, and to the extent that the rules are now being applied more pragmatically. I suspect the same will eventually apply in the private sector a few years after this April. At which point it's a big shrug of the shoulders in the most part. Will tax receipts increase during this settling in period? IMO no. Not a chance. They will more than likely drop (unless one purely looks at tax one dimensionally).
That then begs the question "what is the purpose of these rules?". Is it to yield more income? (It should be). Or is it to appease some current notion of "fair"? (A fool's errand where taxation is concerned).
Contracting in my sector had fallen on its arse. Ok Automotive has seen a general down turn, but there are plenty of roles advertised for £35k pro rata FTC for a short term contract, where they were £35 an hour absolute minimum previously, so more like £75k.
I’m seeing a lot of people retire rather than take a role where the best aspect is onsite parking.
Liokault said:
Murph7355 said:
wormus said:
Murph7355 said:
There are quite a few things not covered, but the principle is correct.
Osbourne covered it the right way, IMO, by increasing dividend taxes. Applied across the board and notionally "fair". The government's continued push on things like IR35, however, will have significant unintended consequences IMO and I suspect will likely net them less tax.
I still don’t understand this argument. In the case of IR35, the government wants all disguised employees to behave as employees and pay the same amount of tax. Sure your one man band company (your employer) will end up paying ERS NI but so does everyone else’s. You can argue you’ll get paid a lower “day rate” as an employee so will end up paying less tax but all that’s happening is somebody else is paying it into the Treasury instead. There’s just less of it going into your pocket.Osbourne covered it the right way, IMO, by increasing dividend taxes. Applied across the board and notionally "fair". The government's continued push on things like IR35, however, will have significant unintended consequences IMO and I suspect will likely net them less tax.
As noted, the differential in the differing ways people get paid is largely very small these days. Larger companies start from smaller ones. Taxation needs to be geared to encourage this (IMO), amongst other things, even if chunks of companies never actually become bigger.
The definition of "disguised" employment is very poor away from the obvious extremes (IR35 was original pitched as the Friday-Monday regulation, where people couldn't be an FTE for a company on a Friday and then be a Ltd company doing the same work for the same "customer" on a Monday). But rather than address this properly, the govt use heavy handed techniques to encourage/force people down a particular path.
This has already bitten their own workforce to a degree, and to the extent that the rules are now being applied more pragmatically. I suspect the same will eventually apply in the private sector a few years after this April. At which point it's a big shrug of the shoulders in the most part. Will tax receipts increase during this settling in period? IMO no. Not a chance. They will more than likely drop (unless one purely looks at tax one dimensionally).
That then begs the question "what is the purpose of these rules?". Is it to yield more income? (It should be). Or is it to appease some current notion of "fair"? (A fool's errand where taxation is concerned).
Contracting in my sector had fallen on its arse. Ok Automotive has seen a general down turn, but there are plenty of roles advertised for £35k pro rata FTC for a short term contract, where they were £35 an hour absolute minimum previously, so more like £75k.
I’m seeing a lot of people retire rather than take a role where the best aspect is onsite parking.
t many of us were denied.elanfan said:
I have personal knowledge of several friends who are self employed and they pay virtually no tax as their accountants somehow manage arrange it so. How about the self employed start paying their fair share would be a start!
Rubbish all SE pay tax like everyone else unless they are not declaring all income/ cash in hand etc. the only difference with SE and Employed is you can deduct genuine business expenses Macron said:
There's money in UK FS from you paying into an ISA, and it's money they've already taxed once. Easy to stop raising the limits though.
One off wealth tax anyone? Let's hope this numpty's stupid short termism is ignored. She's senior. God knows how.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/wea...
Wealth tax was muted at assets of 500K plus that's most people with a property , I doubt it will happen under Tories but if Labour get in then it probably will One off wealth tax anyone? Let's hope this numpty's stupid short termism is ignored. She's senior. God knows how.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/wea...
fishseller said:
Wealth tax was muted at assets of 500K plus that's most people with a property , I doubt it will happen under Tories but if Labour get in then it probably will
What if you have a house now worth £500k but you bought let’s say £600k and it’s lost £100k. You have a mortgage of £500k on what was the £600k. There is no wealth there is no equity. What if the valuation is wrong and on selling which they have to do as they have no cash it’s much less meaning instant refund from govt and stop the sale.
fishseller said:
Wealth tax was muted at assets of 500K plus that's most people with a property , I doubt it will happen under Tories but if Labour get in then it probably will
A lot of things we doubted would happen under Tories are happening now.The way things look a Labour Govt might be our only way back to economic responsibility. Whodathunkit
There's a lot of newspapers predicting massive tax raids for all kinds; pensions, houses, assets, wealth, corporation tax, re-introduction of the windows tax even !
My bet would be it's yet another campaign of disinformation and nothing of the sort will happen; it's standard procedure. So everyone is now prepared for HMG to steal even more of their money, and when they don't do that, everyone will then thank their lucky stars and say what a fantastic Government we have and how benevolent Boris and Rishi are !
The debt will be parked for years. And what we are seeing now is a policy of disinformation.
My bet would be it's yet another campaign of disinformation and nothing of the sort will happen; it's standard procedure. So everyone is now prepared for HMG to steal even more of their money, and when they don't do that, everyone will then thank their lucky stars and say what a fantastic Government we have and how benevolent Boris and Rishi are !
The debt will be parked for years. And what we are seeing now is a policy of disinformation.
menousername said:
fishseller said:
Wealth tax was muted at assets of 500K plus that's most people with a property , I doubt it will happen under Tories but if Labour get in then it probably will
A lot of things we doubted would happen under Tories are happening now.The way things look a Labour Govt might be our only way back to economic responsibility. Whodathunkit
I wouldn't trust them with my kids pocket money.
Don’t see much happening in this budget except for tinkering around the edges. We’re still in the pandemic and although we are seeing a path out of it, it’s still very fragile and will remain so until the summer and possibly beyond as things take faltering steps back to normality.
It’s the 2022 budget that’ll be fun...
It’s the 2022 budget that’ll be fun...
valiant said:
Don’t see much happening in this budget except for tinkering around the edges. We’re still in the pandemic and although we are seeing a path out of it, it’s still very fragile and will remain so until the summer and possibly beyond as things take faltering steps back to normality.
It’s the 2022 budget that’ll be fun...
Agree.It’s the 2022 budget that’ll be fun...
It will not happen but I’d like to see a brave cut in corp tax to incentivise businesses & attract new large ones. Aid the recovery & Brexit bounce.
Uncle John said:
valiant said:
Don’t see much happening in this budget except for tinkering around the edges. We’re still in the pandemic and although we are seeing a path out of it, it’s still very fragile and will remain so until the summer and possibly beyond as things take faltering steps back to normality.
It’s the 2022 budget that’ll be fun...
Agree.It’s the 2022 budget that’ll be fun...
It will not happen but I’d like to see a brave cut in corp tax to incentivise businesses & attract new large ones. Aid the recovery & Brexit bounce.
amgmcqueen said:
Lim said:
Corporation tax to 23%. We are already lowest in Europe bar Ireland. We are arguably out that game now.
Wealth tax not in our dna for better or worse.
What happened to Singapore-on-Thames....?Wealth tax not in our dna for better or worse.
Increase income tax will hit disposable income, which is bad right now.
Re wealth tax, no chance. Uk productivity is low for a reason...
There is a very good chance this is nonsense.
Edited by Lim on Saturday 27th February 21:57
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