Discussion
purplepenguin said:
otolith said:
purplepenguin said:
And yet, you are really emotionally invested in believing it all.
Erm. No, this isn't symmetrical. Normal person and conspiracy theorists are not opposite equivalents.otolith said:
Jesus. You are really emotionally invested in not believing this.
What I find really hard to understand is ever since I was a kid politicians have been lying and lying about virtually everything, my parents used to go on about it in the 70's, they lie as a group and lie as individuals. Most lies are pathetic little snivelling weasel lies as well and some have been outrageous whoppers over the years.They have had this mindset since the beginning of time, it would probably be easier to list the truths they have told over the last 50 years than ever try to list all the lies. And yet 90% of people think they are as honest as the day is long regarding covid. It does not compute.
scottyp123 said:
otolith said:
Jesus. You are really emotionally invested in not believing this.
What I find really hard to understand is ever since I was a kid politicians have been lying and lying about virtually everything, my parents used to go on about it in the 70's, they lie as a group and lie as individuals. Most lies are pathetic little snivelling weasel lies as well and some have been outrageous whoppers over the years.They have had this mindset since the beginning of time, it would probably be easier to list the truths they have told over the last 50 years than ever try to list all the lies. And yet 90% of people think they are as honest as the day is long regarding covid. It does not compute.
You equate NHS doctors with politicians?
The statistics we're talking about are from the ONS and NHS for the UK and from umpteen other statistics agencies around the world -- the statistics all agree with each other.
So, are you saying that all the statisticians are secretly in cahoots with all the politicians or what?
Some people are doing very well out of this. Just the kind of random spivs who get dodgy PPE contracts, though, not the kind of people who normally pull weight with politicians of loose virtue. When we've seen the Koch Foundation trying to put its weight behind the side that the conspiracy people think they're on, I think it's pretty clear that the politicians aren't doing this because they want to.
Honestly, Occam and Hanlon are enough to explain what we see without making stuff up.
Honestly, Occam and Hanlon are enough to explain what we see without making stuff up.
scottyp123 said:
otolith said:
Jesus. You are really emotionally invested in not believing this.
What I find really hard to understand is ever since I was a kid politicians have been lying and lying about virtually everything, my parents used to go on about it in the 70's, they lie as a group and lie as individuals. Most lies are pathetic little snivelling weasel lies as well and some have been outrageous whoppers over the years.They have had this mindset since the beginning of time, it would probably be easier to list the truths they have told over the last 50 years than ever try to list all the lies. And yet 90% of people think they are as honest as the day is long regarding covid. It does not compute.
CraigyMc said:
g4ry13 said:
Of course the link is uncertain because they do not know the side effects of an experimental vaccine and have no long term data. Also, it's not in their interests to declare that it is a side effect when trying to encourage/coerce uptake of a vaccine.
Nevertheless, despite the link being uncertain they are still researching and investigating so it is not clear cut.
What do I think is killing people: the usual stuff - seasonal flu, pneumonia, cancer, suicide, murders, traffic accidents, old age, cardiac arrest, the list goes on.
I would have to look into the ONS stats to see how many deaths there are on average each year and what the trend is. I suspect that there is not a giant increase compared to other years.
The ONS call the difference between the typical rate of deaths averaged over the last 5 years and the deaths this year "excess mortality".Nevertheless, despite the link being uncertain they are still researching and investigating so it is not clear cut.
What do I think is killing people: the usual stuff - seasonal flu, pneumonia, cancer, suicide, murders, traffic accidents, old age, cardiac arrest, the list goes on.
I would have to look into the ONS stats to see how many deaths there are on average each year and what the trend is. I suspect that there is not a giant increase compared to other years.
I have included their graph for you here
The page is here https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
deckster said:
Is it that you're terrified of not being in control? Is it that you need to feel validated by having special knowledge, and not accepting what is obvious to everybody else? Is it just that you don't understand and need to lash out at the unknown?
It's a fascinating psychological study if nothing else.
It certainly is.It's a fascinating psychological study if nothing else.
I would call it a healthy scepticism when someone finds a problem I didn't know I had and proposes a solution involving something I didn't want, says it's the only way out of a situation they control and then creates a sense of drama and urgency which is out of all proportion to the scale of the problem even as they have described it. When there's political power and billions of pounds flying around at the same time it does nothing to ease my doubts. Even embellishing their message with rituals and guilt doesn't quite get through my scepticism somehow. And the billionaires, corporations, royals and politicians of the WEF may even be doing more harm than good to their cause. Their interests are not my interests
I don't want to believe this is a major problem, and I value freedom, autonomy and making my own decisions. I don't want to be part of a new belief system or "new normal." Therefore it would take some extremely strong evidence to convince me that all this was worth it, and being in fairly good health and not prone to getting sick it doesn't seem like a big concern for me. Which I admit is probably a bias towards not seeing this as a problem.
Why do you want this to be so important? What void does covid fill for you?
deckster said:
Taylor James said:
How well does the comparison work averaged over 10, 15 or 20 years? I mean, it couldn't possibly be that the 5 year average just happens to fit the narrative, could it?
Show me the numbers! No, not those numbers!
Edited by g4ry13 on Tuesday 2nd March 18:21
Taylor James said:
How well does the comparison work averaged over 10, 15 or 20 years? I mean, it couldn't possibly be that the 5 year average just happens to fit the narrative, could it?
Ten year figures.https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/do...
If you are that interested, you should be able to download longer term datasets from ONS and work it out yourself.
I don't think you're going to find what you want to see.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
I would call it a healthy scepticism when someone finds a problem I didn't know I had and proposes a solution involving something I didn't want, says it's the only way out of a situation they control and then creates a sense of drama and urgency which is out of all proportion to the scale of the problem even as they have described it.
Good summary.JuanCarlosFandango said:
It certainly is.
I would call it a healthy scepticism when someone finds a problem I didn't know I had and proposes a solution involving something I didn't want, says it's the only way out of a situation they control and then creates a sense of drama and urgency which is out of all proportion to the scale of the problem even as they have described it. When there's political power and billions of pounds flying around at the same time it does nothing to ease my doubts. Even embellishing their message with rituals and guilt doesn't quite get through my scepticism somehow. And the billionaires, corporations, royals and politicians of the WEF may even be doing more harm than good to their cause. Their interests are not my interests
I don't want to believe this is a major problem, and I value freedom, autonomy and making my own decisions. I don't want to be part of a new belief system or "new normal." Therefore it would take some extremely strong evidence to convince me that all this was worth it, and being in fairly good health and not prone to getting sick it doesn't seem like a big concern for me. Which I admit is probably a bias towards not seeing this as a problem.
Why do you want this to be so important? What void does covid fill for you?
Firstly, thank you for the serious answer to what I will freely admit was a flippant set of questions.I would call it a healthy scepticism when someone finds a problem I didn't know I had and proposes a solution involving something I didn't want, says it's the only way out of a situation they control and then creates a sense of drama and urgency which is out of all proportion to the scale of the problem even as they have described it. When there's political power and billions of pounds flying around at the same time it does nothing to ease my doubts. Even embellishing their message with rituals and guilt doesn't quite get through my scepticism somehow. And the billionaires, corporations, royals and politicians of the WEF may even be doing more harm than good to their cause. Their interests are not my interests
I don't want to believe this is a major problem, and I value freedom, autonomy and making my own decisions. I don't want to be part of a new belief system or "new normal." Therefore it would take some extremely strong evidence to convince me that all this was worth it, and being in fairly good health and not prone to getting sick it doesn't seem like a big concern for me. Which I admit is probably a bias towards not seeing this as a problem.
Why do you want this to be so important? What void does covid fill for you?
But (unsurprisingly) I simply don't agree with your premise. You are working from a position of: this isn't important. I am being lied to. I don't trust these people. And then you're creating a narrative that fits those preconceptions.
Whereas the facts are very clear: millions of people have died. A significant proportion of the world's population has been infected. The virus is mutating, and continues to mutate. This isn't just going to go away any time soon.
Having freedom and making your own decisions is clearly important. But having your own facts isn't; and building your own reality based on your own facts is not helpful.
otolith said:
Taylor James said:
How well does the comparison work averaged over 10, 15 or 20 years? I mean, it couldn't possibly be that the 5 year average just happens to fit the narrative, could it?
Ten year figures.https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/do...
If you are that interested, you should be able to download longer term datasets from ONS and work it out yourself.
I don't think you're going to find what you want to see.
deckster said:
Firstly, thank you for the serious answer to what I will freely admit was a flippant set of questions.
But (unsurprisingly) I simply don't agree with your premise. You are working from a position of: this isn't important. I am being lied to. I don't trust these people. And then you're creating a narrative that fits those preconceptions.
Whereas the facts are very clear: millions of people have died. A significant proportion of the world's population has been infected. The virus is mutating, and continues to mutate. This isn't just going to go away any time soon.
Having freedom and making your own decisions is clearly important. But having your own facts isn't; and building your own reality based on your own facts is not helpful.
I think I might have over done my starting point. I wasn't entirely dismissive of the whole thing this time last year. I thought it would burn itself out like H1N1 and SARS did. Even when we went into the first lockdown I thought it was probably an over reaction but an understandable one in the circumstances. But (unsurprisingly) I simply don't agree with your premise. You are working from a position of: this isn't important. I am being lied to. I don't trust these people. And then you're creating a narrative that fits those preconceptions.
Whereas the facts are very clear: millions of people have died. A significant proportion of the world's population has been infected. The virus is mutating, and continues to mutate. This isn't just going to go away any time soon.
Having freedom and making your own decisions is clearly important. But having your own facts isn't; and building your own reality based on your own facts is not helpful.
It was when deaths dropped off and they started blatantly inflating the figures, highlighting tragic outliers and ramping up restrictions that I started to see it as something a bit weird.
I can't disown any confirmation bias in there but nor can the pan bashers or many others who make up the everyone that sees this as something serious.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
Why do you want this to be so important? What void does covid fill for you?
I know you were asking someone else, but my extreme interest in this is all about how to get my life back to a point where I'm able to do the things I want (restaurants, climbing, karting, motorsport, gym, gigs, films, friends and family, foreign trips), as soon as possible while not killing and disabling a huge number of people.It's a bit like asking a prisoner how long until they get released. Tomorrow isn't soon enough. I keep reading folk talking about "lockdown people wanting to keep it going" while shaking my head and wondering how the mental health is of these folk.
Basic logic goes like this:
- Uncontrolled spread of C19 overwhelms the medical systems of the world with those who get it bad.
- Uncontrolled spread of C19 kills lots of people, even if their local medical systems aren't overwhelmed. Most are old, but plenty are not.
- Uncontrolled spread maims lots of people. Long Covid is a real thing. Plenty of these are young people.
- Masks & distancing limit the exposure to others, this limits the spread of C19.
- Once they've had time to be effective after the dose, vaccines limit the spread.
- Once they've had time to be effective after the dose, vaccines limit the damage C19 causes to those who catch C19.
- Test & Trace help identify outbreaks of C19
- Isolation of infected people helps limit the spread, whether that's people travelling into the UK or people who have caught it in the course of day-to-day.
The fact that none of the antivax stuff is accepted by most people, and that most of the vaccination news is pretty good is the reason why I'm so pro-vaccination. I have friends and family who work in the NHS. They are all of the same mind.
I read the news and I listen to politicians, but my opinions are formed from the sources, these are typically scientific papers rather than press releases.
Like many people on here, I deal with data on a day-to-day basis for my work; it's not like I'm learning to interpret graphs and tables just for this conversation.
Taylor James said:
otolith said:
Taylor James said:
How well does the comparison work averaged over 10, 15 or 20 years? I mean, it couldn't possibly be that the 5 year average just happens to fit the narrative, could it?
Ten year figures.https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/do...
If you are that interested, you should be able to download longer term datasets from ONS and work it out yourself.
I don't think you're going to find what you want to see.
Steve Campbell said:
Taylor James said:
otolith said:
Taylor James said:
How well does the comparison work averaged over 10, 15 or 20 years? I mean, it couldn't possibly be that the 5 year average just happens to fit the narrative, could it?
Ten year figures.https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/do...
If you are that interested, you should be able to download longer term datasets from ONS and work it out yourself.
I don't think you're going to find what you want to see.
This seems to be missing a lot of the time for example with today's chatter about the risk to teachers. Given what we know about the age profile of those dying from covid, or even with covid, and the average age of teachers, we can conclude that the risk of death to them is between minuscule and zero. Despite this, it's reported as a serious threat.
My interest in excess mortality is part of understanding the real amount that can be predominantly attributed to covid.
98elise said:
No they don't, but they do believe that on balance scientists and doctors are to be believed rather than Facebook.
Doctors like this? http://enformtk.u-aizu.ac.jp/howard/gcep_dr_vaness...deckster said:
JuanCarlosFandango said:
It certainly is.
I would call it a healthy scepticism when someone finds a problem I didn't know I had and proposes a solution involving something I didn't want, says it's the only way out of a situation they control and then creates a sense of drama and urgency which is out of all proportion to the scale of the problem even as they have described it. When there's political power and billions of pounds flying around at the same time it does nothing to ease my doubts. Even embellishing their message with rituals and guilt doesn't quite get through my scepticism somehow. And the billionaires, corporations, royals and politicians of the WEF may even be doing more harm than good to their cause. Their interests are not my interests
I don't want to believe this is a major problem, and I value freedom, autonomy and making my own decisions. I don't want to be part of a new belief system or "new normal." Therefore it would take some extremely strong evidence to convince me that all this was worth it, and being in fairly good health and not prone to getting sick it doesn't seem like a big concern for me. Which I admit is probably a bias towards not seeing this as a problem.
Why do you want this to be so important? What void does covid fill for you?
Firstly, thank you for the serious answer to what I will freely admit was a flippant set of questions.I would call it a healthy scepticism when someone finds a problem I didn't know I had and proposes a solution involving something I didn't want, says it's the only way out of a situation they control and then creates a sense of drama and urgency which is out of all proportion to the scale of the problem even as they have described it. When there's political power and billions of pounds flying around at the same time it does nothing to ease my doubts. Even embellishing their message with rituals and guilt doesn't quite get through my scepticism somehow. And the billionaires, corporations, royals and politicians of the WEF may even be doing more harm than good to their cause. Their interests are not my interests
I don't want to believe this is a major problem, and I value freedom, autonomy and making my own decisions. I don't want to be part of a new belief system or "new normal." Therefore it would take some extremely strong evidence to convince me that all this was worth it, and being in fairly good health and not prone to getting sick it doesn't seem like a big concern for me. Which I admit is probably a bias towards not seeing this as a problem.
Why do you want this to be so important? What void does covid fill for you?
But (unsurprisingly) I simply don't agree with your premise. You are working from a position of: this isn't important. I am being lied to. I don't trust these people. And then you're creating a narrative that fits those preconceptions.
Whereas the facts are very clear: millions of people have died. A significant proportion of the world's population has been infected. The virus is mutating, and continues to mutate. This isn't just going to go away any time soon.
Having freedom and making your own decisions is clearly important. But having your own facts isn't; and building your own reality based on your own facts is not helpful.
Do you trust them?
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