Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)
Discussion
crankedup said:
Didn’t notice any posts in here regarding the new enhanced trade deal we have with India. TATA set to create 1500 new high skill jobs in the tech sector into the U.K. Good news and just the start
of many deals to come.
Yep ... and looks like we will replace a lot of EU business with ROW , we have an non Eu supplier Where possible policy which isn’t easy but getting better , mind it’s just cutting out the middleman in a lot of cases and some of the prices are eye opening of many deals to come.
One of the popular motors we use is quarter the price direct from China .. I would guess many businesses with Eu instigated problems will also be taking a similar
Route ... it’s been good really, More profit ..
Edited by powerstroke on Tuesday 23 February 18:17
Mortarboard said:
crankedup said:
DeepEnd said:
crankedup said:
Certainly not, take a 10% drop off for the whole year, no. We are talking here of a two month period.
Take the Global pandemic into consideration I reckon only a 10% drop off is an amazing achievement. Add a dose of brexit and it amounts to the U.K. doing what it does, gets on with it and finds solutions. Yes I would say that it’s a very good example and what happened to those tales of doom and gloom of major traffic delays.
Key words there are “I reckon”Take the Global pandemic into consideration I reckon only a 10% drop off is an amazing achievement. Add a dose of brexit and it amounts to the U.K. doing what it does, gets on with it and finds solutions. Yes I would say that it’s a very good example and what happened to those tales of doom and gloom of major traffic delays.
Lots more empty trucks than usual, so we can’t say yet what the damage is or what factor cv has/will play.
‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Current figures are 65% of trucks headed to the continent are empty (data from last week in jan, first week in feb)
M.
Cheers ‘M’ I was hoping deepend would provide them tbh. Couldn’t see the numbers myself in the article that I read, no matter. The point is slightly diluted with so many empty trucks going back into mainland Europe. I wonder why they are empty,
powerstroke said:
crankedup said:
Didn’t notice any posts in here regarding the new enhanced trade deal we have with India. TATA set to create 1500 new high skill jobs in the tech sector into the U.K. Good news and just the start
of many deals to come.
Yep ... and looks like we will replace a lot of EU business with ROW , we have an non Eu supplier Where possible policy which isn’t easy but getting better , mind it’s just cutting out the middleman in a lot of cases and some of the prices are eye opening of many deals to come.
One of the popular motors we use is quarter the price direct from China .. I would guess many businesses with Eu instigated problems will also be taking a similar
Route ... it’s been good really, More profit ..
Edited by powerstroke on Tuesday 23 February 18:17
It is three week old news, should see much more of it coming our way. China, well it’s almost dumping product like they dumped steel a couple of years back. Needs to be stopped but who will take them on.
crankedup said:
Mortarboard said:
crankedup said:
DeepEnd said:
crankedup said:
Certainly not, take a 10% drop off for the whole year, no. We are talking here of a two month period.
Take the Global pandemic into consideration I reckon only a 10% drop off is an amazing achievement. Add a dose of brexit and it amounts to the U.K. doing what it does, gets on with it and finds solutions. Yes I would say that it’s a very good example and what happened to those tales of doom and gloom of major traffic delays.
Key words there are “I reckon”Take the Global pandemic into consideration I reckon only a 10% drop off is an amazing achievement. Add a dose of brexit and it amounts to the U.K. doing what it does, gets on with it and finds solutions. Yes I would say that it’s a very good example and what happened to those tales of doom and gloom of major traffic delays.
Lots more empty trucks than usual, so we can’t say yet what the damage is or what factor cv has/will play.
‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Current figures are 65% of trucks headed to the continent are empty (data from last week in jan, first week in feb)
M.
Cheers ‘M’ I was hoping deepend would provide them tbh. Couldn’t see the numbers myself in the article that I read, no matter. The point is slightly diluted with so many empty trucks going back into mainland Europe. I wonder why they are empty,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-08...
crankedup said:
Go on with you, where are the massive hold ups? It’s going great but you can’t bring yourself to admit that even you are surprised at the resilience of the sector. I call it a winning formula with sunlit horizons just showing a glint, already.
‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Empty trucks last reported were somewhere around 50% instead of a more typical under 30% during normal times (I just read M says 65%). ‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Resilience of the sector? Why would it need to be resilient with the wonderful Boris FTA?
It's looking like 10% gusting 45% down on usual trade volumes if the empty trucks are included as in indicator - which they have to be alongside the 90% figure. Surely that is obviously a factor in calculating true flows. Why? On the upside, it could be CV related or still a hangover from stockpiling before 1 Jan. Or it partly could be those who have just given up exporting - you must have seen them in the headlines. How many others are not reporting for fear of loss of confidence in their business etc.? That is the true Brexit impact. It feels like we'll be doing well if it's only 10% down at year end at the moment.
Cause for celebration? Not in the slightest and concerning that you even imagine for a second it might be.
Remember the much debated forecasts had a 5-11% impact on our goods into the EU. In some models that was not even supposed to be immediate.
Edited by DeepEnd on Tuesday 23 February 19:25
citizensm1th said:
Mrr T said:
992_GT3 said:
Mrr T said:
This has been doing the rounds for ages. What the story misses is that these are not really EU regulations. No one will of heard of the IAIR but the Solvency regulations where proposed by the IAIR and the EU is doing no more than implementing the agreed standards. The UK is a full member of the IAIR and helped agree the regulations. So no there will not be changes.
Mrr T's GoogleFu fails him, his post is spectacularly wrong in almost every area!The IAIR is the International Association of Insolvency Regulators and has absolutely nothing to do with the regulation of insurance companies in the UK, EU or anywhere else.
The regulator for European Insurers is EIOPA, an independent advisory body to the European Commission.
The IAIS (The International Association Insurance Supervisors) is seeking to support the move to a global capital standard over time, but this is very much a path for the future). They don't set rules but coordinate the rule-making authorities across the world and so they had nothing to do with Solvency II. EIOPA is very much part of this initiative.
The Solvency II rules were some 10+ years in the making, came into force in 2016 and were broadly based on existing UK insurance regulation at that time.
Implementation of those regulations is left to local regulators, as this is not considered an EC competence. For this reason, interpretation of the rules can differ in different countries. The UK has been criticised for gold-plating the rules in some areas.
Although the regulations are meant to be based on economic risk, in practice there are a number of fudges in some areas. Also, because it would have caused significant solvency issues for a number of European insurers, the implementation was watered down, such that companies have up to 16 years to be fully compliant with the rules.
Given the different types of insurers in different jurisdictions, and the different types of business written, there is certainly scope to change the rules for UK insurers to make them more applicable, without lowering standards.
There have been a number of consultation papers about what areas the UK regulator will look to change now that it has the power to do so.
Mrr T said:
I was involved a little in the implementation and the UK regulators made a major mess of it.
Absolute nonsense on both accounts. Please explain!Mrr T said:
As for the UK market being seperate that maybe true in a technical sense but most providers are parts of group which operate in many markets. Which is why international standards are needed.
More nonsense. There are no international solvency standards for insurers, although there are some developing accounting standards.Different regions have their own standards but my recognise others - for example, EIOPA recognise Switzerland, Japan and Bermuda as 'equivalent' solvency standards for insurers. However, contrary to some claims, that does not mean that the EU or EIOPA set out the rules by which insurers in those regions are subject to. Their own regulator manages the insurance sector and applies its own rules.
Edited by 992_GT3 on Tuesday 23 February 15:33
The web site is here.
https://www.iaisweb.org/home
The lengthy section titled supervisory material is of interest.
crankedup said:
Cheers ‘M’ I was hoping deepend would provide them tbh. Couldn’t see the numbers myself in the article that I read, no matter. The point is slightly diluted with so many empty trucks going back into mainland Europe. I wonder why they are empty,
DeepEnd said:
crankedup said:
Go on with you, where are the massive hold ups? It’s going great but you can’t bring yourself to admit that even you are surprised at the resilience of the sector. I call it a winning formula with sunlit horizons just showing a glint, already.
‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Empty trucks last reported were somewhere around 50% instead of a more typical under 30% during normal times. ‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Resilience of the sector? Why would it need to be resilient with the wonderful Boris FTA?
It's looking like 10% gusting 30% down on usual trade volumes if the empty trucks are an indicator. Could be CV related or still a hangover from stockpiling before 1 Jan. Or it partly could be those who have just given up exporting - you must have seen them in the headlines. How many others are not reporting for fear of loss of confidence in their business etc.
Cause for celebration? Not in the slightest and concerning that you even imagine for a second it might be.
As for your assumptions, pinch of salt.
DeepEnd said:
crankedup said:
Go on with you, where are the massive hold ups? It’s going great but you can’t bring yourself to admit that even you are surprised at the resilience of the sector. I call it a winning formula with sunlit horizons just showing a glint, already.
‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Empty trucks last reported were somewhere around 50% instead of a more typical under 30% during normal times. ‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Resilience of the sector? Why would it need to be resilient with the wonderful Boris FTA?
It's looking like 10% gusting 30% down on usual trade volumes if the empty trucks are an indicator. Could be CV related or still a hangover from stockpiling before 1 Jan. Or it partly could be those who have just given up exporting - you must have seen them in the headlines. How many others are not reporting for fear of loss of confidence in their business etc.
Cause for celebration? Not in the slightest and concerning that you even imagine for a second it might be.
crankedup said:
DeepEnd said:
crankedup said:
Go on with you, where are the massive hold ups? It’s going great but you can’t bring yourself to admit that even you are surprised at the resilience of the sector. I call it a winning formula with sunlit horizons just showing a glint, already.
‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Empty trucks last reported were somewhere around 50% instead of a more typical under 30% during normal times. ‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Resilience of the sector? Why would it need to be resilient with the wonderful Boris FTA?
It's looking like 10% gusting 30% down on usual trade volumes if the empty trucks are an indicator. Could be CV related or still a hangover from stockpiling before 1 Jan. Or it partly could be those who have just given up exporting - you must have seen them in the headlines. How many others are not reporting for fear of loss of confidence in their business etc.
Cause for celebration? Not in the slightest and concerning that you even imagine for a second it might be.
As for your assumptions, pinch of salt.
Current empty trucks :
M figures were 65%
Last I saw was 50%
Usual empty figures I've read as 30%
Hence on these figures they are 20-35% down on usual
jsf says it's only 10% down but omits any before/after figures.
You have to take these into account against your 90% "all is fine" numbers, obviously.
crankedup said:
Indeed, I didn’t recall seeing this bit of good positive news being flagged up in here, hence my post.
It is three week old news, should see much more of it coming our way. China, well it’s almost dumping product like they dumped steel a couple of years back. Needs to be stopped but who will take them on.
Not easy !! The motors are a good example !! the German machines we look after originally came with locally made units last few years Chinese ones were fitted It is three week old news, should see much more of it coming our way. China, well it’s almost dumping product like they dumped steel a couple of years back. Needs to be stopped but who will take them on.
Oh and they only last about half as long as the Bosch ones .. something similar is happening in the car industry
The temptation for short term profits Is the Chinese’s friend .. I
DeepEnd said:
crankedup said:
DeepEnd said:
crankedup said:
Go on with you, where are the massive hold ups? It’s going great but you can’t bring yourself to admit that even you are surprised at the resilience of the sector. I call it a winning formula with sunlit horizons just showing a glint, already.
‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Empty trucks last reported were somewhere around 50% instead of a more typical under 30% during normal times. ‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Resilience of the sector? Why would it need to be resilient with the wonderful Boris FTA?
It's looking like 10% gusting 30% down on usual trade volumes if the empty trucks are an indicator. Could be CV related or still a hangover from stockpiling before 1 Jan. Or it partly could be those who have just given up exporting - you must have seen them in the headlines. How many others are not reporting for fear of loss of confidence in their business etc.
Cause for celebration? Not in the slightest and concerning that you even imagine for a second it might be.
As for your assumptions, pinch of salt.
Current empty trucks :
M figures were 65%
Last I saw was 50%
Usual empty figures I've read as 30%
Hence on these figures they are 20-35% down on usual
jsf says it's only 10% down but omits any before/after figures.
You have to take these into account against your 90% "all is fine" numbers, obviously.
As a perennial optimist I will side with jsf numbers as they suit my bias.
The most interesting part is that traffic is free flowing, no disruption or hold ups that were much forecast in the run up to January 1st 2021.
CraigyMc said:
crankedup said:
Mortarboard said:
crankedup said:
DeepEnd said:
crankedup said:
Certainly not, take a 10% drop off for the whole year, no. We are talking here of a two month period.
Take the Global pandemic into consideration I reckon only a 10% drop off is an amazing achievement. Add a dose of brexit and it amounts to the U.K. doing what it does, gets on with it and finds solutions. Yes I would say that it’s a very good example and what happened to those tales of doom and gloom of major traffic delays.
Key words there are “I reckon”Take the Global pandemic into consideration I reckon only a 10% drop off is an amazing achievement. Add a dose of brexit and it amounts to the U.K. doing what it does, gets on with it and finds solutions. Yes I would say that it’s a very good example and what happened to those tales of doom and gloom of major traffic delays.
Lots more empty trucks than usual, so we can’t say yet what the damage is or what factor cv has/will play.
‘Lots more empty trucks than usual’ , care to put numbers on it.
Current figures are 65% of trucks headed to the continent are empty (data from last week in jan, first week in feb)
M.
Cheers ‘M’ I was hoping deepend would provide them tbh. Couldn’t see the numbers myself in the article that I read, no matter. The point is slightly diluted with so many empty trucks going back into mainland Europe. I wonder why they are empty,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-08...
turbobloke said:
Indeed. 992's posting style doesn't instantly remind me of sidicks, so there were no suspicions until accusations started. Being correct is an unwelcome development for those who are incorrect, the rest follows. As for porch, ffs.
He’s quite obviously sidicks, anyone can see that, even you know it. He’s not even denying it.
crankedup said:
Apology not sought or required, but thanks anyway.
You tell yourself that. crankedup said:
As a perennial optimist I will side with jsf numbers as they suit my bias.
I think they match recently reported BBC numbers, perhaps why no link. crankedup said:
The most interesting part is that traffic is free flowing, no disruption or hold ups that were much forecast in the run up to January 1st 2021.
No hold ups for the exports - cheese, shellfish etc. that never sets off. DeepEnd said:
crankedup said:
Apology not sought or required, but thanks anyway.
You tell yourself that. crankedup said:
As a perennial optimist I will side with jsf numbers as they suit my bias.
I think they match recently reported BBC numbers, perhaps why no link. crankedup said:
The most interesting part is that traffic is free flowing, no disruption or hold ups that were much forecast in the run up to January 1st 2021.
No hold ups for the exports - cheese, shellfish etc. that never sets off. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff