Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)

[turbobloke]

Murph7355 said:

Iminquarantine said:

Just realised that Test and Trace has cost about £550 for every single man, woman and child in the United Kingdom.

More Brexit news:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/06/u...

The Cabinet Office run by Michael Gove has been officially reprimanded by the UK Statistics Authority for using unpublished and unverifiable data in an attempt to deny that Brexit had caused a massive fall in volumes of trade through British ports.

Posted before. Two statisticians arguing has to be one of the least box office fights of the century

Actual ONS stats for trade due Friday I think (usually around the 12th). So we'll all be able to pick the nuts out of them, the preceding few months where stockpiling might have occurred and the preceding 12-48mths to compare with norms from there I guess. I'm sure you'll be straight on it and giving us the chart.

If Gove ends up looking like a plum it wouldn't be much change from normal.

Was it not the case that from Jan this year (actually 25 Dec iirc) lorry drivers could only cross to France with a recent negative covid test? If so this will have had an impact on RHA members' ongoing work particularly early Jan, even after a significant backlog was cleared.

Gove already looks like a plum but appearances aren't evetything.

[roger.mellie]

turbobloke said:

Was it not the case that from Jan this year (actually 25 Dec iirc) lorry drivers could only cross to France with a recent negative covid test? If so this will have had an impact on RHA members' ongoing work particularly early Jan, even after a significant backlog was cleared.

Gove already looks like a plum but appearances aren't evetything.

Gove has manoeuvred very well so far to ensure he hasn't become another sacrifice on the altar of brexit

Guessing Frost will be done in at some point but maybe not soon. That article in the Telegraph would be hilarious if it wasn't for the fact that so many will nod along to it.

I know it's only of academic interest here but I do like throwing an NI news story in to remind some brexiters that we're still here . https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/dup-sta... . The rather amusing thing about that story is that NI is a PR system and a one-sided electoral pact generally helps everyone else by a larger margin. It would have the opposite of the declared intent but it might ensure that the DUP remain top unionist dog so job jobbed for them. I'm still waiting for Boris to tell unionists that he agreed to the NI protocol and that he's standing over it.

[Mortarboard]

If the DUP have decided the NI protocol is bad for NI, then its probably good for NI.

Not sure i get their thinking. At least with the protocol in place, you'd have Eire support. Not sure England is going to be quite so supportive (in a practical sense).

Probably just politically motivated. They'd need something to gripe about, not actually get rid of it.

M.

[Murph7355]

turbobloke said:

Was it not the case that from Jan this year (actually 25 Dec iirc) lorry drivers could only cross to France with a recent negative covid test? If so this will have had an impact on RHA members' ongoing work particularly early Jan, even after a significant backlog was cleared.....

Yes - that was what I was referring to with looking at previous years' too...I won't be holding my breath for a decent, balanced assessment of whatever the figures on Friday show.

Mortarboard said:

...
Not sure i get their thinking. At least with the protocol in place, you'd have Eire support. Not sure England is going to be quite so supportive (in a practical sense).....

Eire support for what? And what support hasn't "England" provided?

[slow_poke]

Mortarboard said:

If the DUP have decided the NI protocol is bad for NI, then its probably good for NI.

Not sure i get their thinking. At least with the protocol in place, you'd have Eire support. Not sure England is going to be quite so supportive (in a practical sense).

Probably just politically motivated. They'd need something to gripe about, not actually get rid of it.

M.

The DUP thrive on the core belief that they are a small, persecuted clan under constant threat from papists. That's how they generate their support. They've never really been comfortable with being the largest party in power sharing - the responsibilities that come with that doesn't fit easily with their mindset. They're much more comfortable with being naysayers and doom mongers outside the tent.

[Mortarboard]

Murph7355 said:

Mortarboard said:

...
Not sure i get their thinking. At least with the protocol in place, you'd have Eire support. Not sure England is going to be quite so supportive (in a practical sense).....

Eire support for what? And what support hasn't "England" provided?

Eire has consistently shown to actually want NI (and it's citizens) considered in Brexit.
"England" has not (I can use Westminster instead, should you prefer)

NI was completely overlooked in the beginning. With it being by far and away the hardest square to circle, it shows the relevant care with which westminister regarded it.

Furthermore, the future outlook for NI in terms of cold hard cash support looks very bleak. Let's not forget, the NHS has gone from getting 350M a week to a 1% pay rise for nurses, Fishing being the poster child for "sovereignty" to not being financially viable, Farming being supported at what, 25% of EU subsidies?

NI costs approximately the same as the net cost of EU membership for the Uk. How do we see that panning out?

M.

[slow_poke]

Mortarboard said:

Furthermore, the future outlook for NI in terms of cold hard cash support looks very bleak. Let's not forget, the NHS has gone from getting 350M a week to a 1% pay rise for nurses, Fishing being the poster child for "sovereignty" to not being financially viable, Farming being supported at what, 25% of EU subsidies?

NI costs approximately the same as the net cost of EU membership for the Uk. How do we see that panning out?

M.

Pretty chilling.

[anonymous-user]

Mortarboard said:

Eire has consistently shown to actually want NI (and it's citizens) considered in Brexit.
"England" has not (I can use Westminster instead, should you prefer)

NI was completely overlooked in the beginning. With it being by far and away the hardest square to circle, it shows the relevant care with which westminister regarded it.

Furthermore, the future outlook for NI in terms of cold hard cash support looks very bleak. Let's not forget, the NHS has gone from getting 350M a week to a 1% pay rise for nurses, Fishing being the poster child for "sovereignty" to not being financially viable, Farming being supported at what, 25% of EU subsidies?

NI costs approximately the same as the net cost of EU membership for the Uk. How do we see that panning out?

M.

NI will remain part of the UK until the majority of people in NI vote to change this.
This is all black and white in the Belfast agreement.
What more do you need?

The NHS has received a huge amount more cash than the amount on a bus since the vote to leave, even before the pandemic hit.
Not sure what wages have to do with this but medical staff have received good increases in recent years and have some of the best benefit packages and opportunities of advancement in pay and career available. They were shat on by Osborne, but we saw that wker booted out as a result of Brexit, another win.

[Mortarboard]

jsf said:

NI will remain part of the UK until the majority of people in NI vote to change this.
This is all black and white in the Belfast agreement.
What more do you need?

Vote is at the whim/grace of the NI Secretary of State. Recent holders of that role have shown to known a gap or two in their understanding of the history/issues. Apparently Westminster sees no issues with the DUP supporting the "viewpoints of all sides" - in reality pandering to the voices of unionist paramilitaries.

Besides, a few politicians making these decisions appear not to have even read the Belfast agreement, at a whopping 30-40 pages.

Personally, I'd like to see the script changed from "which country do you want to align to, it's either one or the other", to getting some autonomy in NI so that the people there can have the NI that they want. Then make closer ties to whoever they want (or not, as the case may be)

jsf said:

The NHS has received a huge amount more cash than the amount on a bus since the vote to leave, even before the pandemic hit.
Not sure what wages have to do with this but medical staff have received good increases in recent years and have some of the best benefit packages and opportunities of advancement in pay and career available. They were shat on by Osborne, but we saw that wker booted out as a result of Brexit, another win.

The bus suggested (if nothing else) a much improved future for the NHS. Covid aside, how do you see that being next year/year after? Any long term commitments been stated? (say 3-5 years)

This "huge amount of cash" you mention: was it "well as" or "instead of"?

M.

[slow_poke]

jsf said:

Mortarboard said:

Eire has consistently shown to actually want NI (and it's citizens) considered in Brexit.
"England" has not (I can use Westminster instead, should you prefer)

NI was completely overlooked in the beginning. With it being by far and away the hardest square to circle, it shows the relevant care with which westminister regarded it.

Furthermore, the future outlook for NI in terms of cold hard cash support looks very bleak. Let's not forget, the NHS has gone from getting 350M a week to a 1% pay rise for nurses, Fishing being the poster child for "sovereignty" to not being financially viable, Farming being supported at what, 25% of EU subsidies?

NI costs approximately the same as the net cost of EU membership for the Uk. How do we see that panning out?

M.

NI will remain part of the UK until the majority of people in NI vote to change this.
This is all black and white in the Belfast agreement.
What more do you need?

The NHS has received a huge amount more cash than the amount on a bus since the vote to leave, even before the pandemic hit.
Not sure what wages have to do with this but medical staff have received good increases in recent years and have some of the best benefit packages and opportunities of advancement in pay and career available. They were shat on by Osborne, but we saw that wker booted out as a result of Brexit, another win.

Farmers in NI looking over the border at farmers in RoI. Comparing and contrasting the support they both get. I daresay some previously staunch pro-Union farmers in NI are going to think long and hard about how they'd vote in a Border Poll if it meant swapping from Westminster's tit to the EU's tit for farm subsidies.

[Iminquarantine]

Brexiters seem to count the vaccination program (which the U.K. is doing very well) as a success story of Brexit. Even though what the U.K. has done could have been done while a member of the EU. So even if they don’t go together except in the heads of the misinformed, maybe it is time to do a cost comparison of the £37 bn Test and Trace cost.

Test and Trace: £37 billion.

Entire defence budget: £38 bn. Just slightly more than Test and Trace.

Entire police budget: £18 bn. Less than half of Test and Trace.

Crossrail rail project, £18 bn, after cost overruns. Half the cost of Test and Trace.


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/298637/united-...


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/nov/08/cr...

Edited by Iminquarantine on Tuesday 9th March 15:58

[cirian75]

Iminquarantine said:

Brexiters seem to count the vaccination program (which the U.K. is doing very well) as a success story of Brexit. Even though what the U.K. has done could have been done while a member of the EU. So even if they don’t go together except in the heads of the misinformed, maybe it is time to do a cost comparison of the £37 bn Test and Trace cost.

Test and Trace: £37 billion.

Entire defence budget: £38 bn. Just slightly more than Test and Trace.

Entire police budget: £18 bn. Less than half of Test and Trace.

Crossrail rail project, £18 bn, after cost overruns. Half the cost of Test and Trace.


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/298637/united-...


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/nov/08/cr...

Edited by Iminquarantine on Tuesday 9th March 15:58

Test and Trace has been a get richer quicker scheme for Tory and Tory Donor's

[Mortarboard]

Iminquarantine said:

Brexiters seem to count the vaccination program (which the U.K. is doing very well) as a success story of Brexit. Even though what the U.K. has done could have been done while a member of the EU. So even if they don’t go together except in the heads of the misinformed, maybe it is time to do a cost comparison of the £37 bn Test and Trace cost.

Test and Trace: £37 billion.

Entire defence budget: £38 bn. Just slightly more than Test and Trace.

Entire police budget: £18 bn. Less than half of Test and Trace.

Crossrail rail project, £18 bn, after cost overruns. Half the cost of Test and Trace.

Can we use the red buses again? Common language and all that!

Track & Trace - 2 red buses (711 million per week)

(runs for cover)

M.

[Murph7355]

Mortarboard said:

Eire has consistently shown to actually want NI (and it's citizens) considered in Brexit.
"England" has not (I can use Westminster instead, should you prefer)

NI was completely overlooked in the beginning. With it being by far and away the hardest square to circle, it shows the relevant care with which westminister regarded it.

Furthermore, the future outlook for NI in terms of cold hard cash support looks very bleak. Let's not forget, the NHS has gone from getting 350M a week to a 1% pay rise for nurses, Fishing being the poster child for "sovereignty" to not being financially viable, Farming being supported at what, 25% of EU subsidies?

NI costs approximately the same as the net cost of EU membership for the Uk. How do we see that panning out?

M.

England/Westminster has been propping up NI for a very long time and there is no sign at all that it will not continue to do so. (I am talking about net flows of financial support here).

The NHS/red bus arguments are stale. They were at the time, time has not aged them well. The NHS has received more than 350m extra a week since the vote, if that really mattered and wasn't simply being used by both sides then and now as a lazy argument.

If the people of NI want out of the UK, then there are mechanisms for that. Tell me, is RoI actually pushing for that to happen? Has it ever? Would RoI want to actually take that one? Or is there support soundbite central whilst attempting to make themselves the JLP of the exiting process?

[anonymous-user]

Mortarboard said:

Iminquarantine said:

Brexiters seem to count the vaccination program (which the U.K. is doing very well) as a success story of Brexit. Even though what the U.K. has done could have been done while a member of the EU. So even if they don’t go together except in the heads of the misinformed, maybe it is time to do a cost comparison of the £37 bn Test and Trace cost.

Test and Trace: £37 billion.

Entire defence budget: £38 bn. Just slightly more than Test and Trace.

Entire police budget: £18 bn. Less than half of Test and Trace.

Crossrail rail project, £18 bn, after cost overruns. Half the cost of Test and Trace.

Can we use the red buses again? Common language and all that!

Track & Trace - 2 red buses (711 million per week)

(runs for cover)

M.

Money very well spent, seems to be working.

Isn't it great that we can decide how to allocate our money

[CraigyMc]

digimeistter said:

Mortarboard said:

Iminquarantine said:

Brexiters seem to count the vaccination program (which the U.K. is doing very well) as a success story of Brexit. Even though what the U.K. has done could have been done while a member of the EU. So even if they don’t go together except in the heads of the misinformed, maybe it is time to do a cost comparison of the £37 bn Test and Trace cost.

Test and Trace: £37 billion.

Entire defence budget: £38 bn. Just slightly more than Test and Trace.

Entire police budget: £18 bn. Less than half of Test and Trace.

Crossrail rail project, £18 bn, after cost overruns. Half the cost of Test and Trace.

Can we use the red buses again? Common language and all that!

Track & Trace - 2 red buses (711 million per week)

(runs for cover)

M.

Money very well spent, seems to be working.

Isn't it great that we can decide how to allocate our money

In their defence, a lot of it hasn't actually been spent yet. People are throwing around the budget allocated for it as if that's what it's cost so far.

Most of the money has gone into testing; it's not cheap to test several hundred thousand people a day.

I'm not an apologist for this government (didn't vote for them) but lets have a sense of perspective please.

[Garvin]

CraigyMc said:

digimeistter said:

Mortarboard said:

Iminquarantine said:

Brexiters seem to count the vaccination program (which the U.K. is doing very well) as a success story of Brexit. Even though what the U.K. has done could have been done while a member of the EU. So even if they don’t go together except in the heads of the misinformed, maybe it is time to do a cost comparison of the £37 bn Test and Trace cost.

Test and Trace: £37 billion.

Entire defence budget: £38 bn. Just slightly more than Test and Trace.

Entire police budget: £18 bn. Less than half of Test and Trace.

Crossrail rail project, £18 bn, after cost overruns. Half the cost of Test and Trace.

Can we use the red buses again? Common language and all that!

Track & Trace - 2 red buses (711 million per week)

(runs for cover)

M.

Money very well spent, seems to be working.

Isn't it great that we can decide how to allocate our money

In their defence, a lot of it hasn't actually been spent yet. People are throwing around the budget allocated for it as if that's what it's cost so far.

Most of the money has gone into testing; it's not cheap to test several hundred thousand people a day.

I'm not an apologist for this government (didn't vote for them) but lets have a sense of perspective please.

The T&T budget is also over two years whilst the misinformed are trying to compare it with annual budgets and even one off infrastructure costs. The T&T budget also contains a lot of one off infrastructure costs of labs etc so is not an ongoing annual running cost but the misinformed will remain the misinformed either deliberately or through just being stupid.

[Mortarboard]

Murph7355 said:

England/Westminster has been propping up NI for a very long time and there is no sign at all that it will not continue to do so. (I am talking about net flows of financial support here).

Your confidence levels are waaaay higher than mine, I honestly can see funding for NI in the grand scheme of things getting cut. Mainly as I expect UK exchequer receipts to drop significantly in the short to medium term. Pressure will come to spend the NI money elsewhere. Don't forget, farming subsidies are already cut, despite promises to fund that sector to the equivalent of the EU subsidies.

Murph7355 said:

The NHS/red bus arguments are stale. They were at the time, time has not aged them well. The NHS has received more than 350m extra a week since the vote, if that really mattered and wasn't simply being used by both sides then and now as a lazy argument.

Again, with or without COVID? Do you honestly see the increased funding continuing for the next 3-5 years?

Murph7355 said:

If the people of NI want out of the UK, then there are mechanisms for that. Tell me, is RoI actually pushing for that to happen? Has it ever? Would RoI want to actually take that one? Or is there support soundbite central whilst attempting to make themselves the JLP of the exiting process?

Point of order - NI has precisely one mechanism, and the decision to trigger a vote is not made in NI. ROI wants NI to have autonomy to decide what it wants. Westminster wants NI to be about as autonomous as Scotland. (it is currently less autonomous)

Current (general) attitude in Eire is that reunification would be a positive thing, albeit the cost makes some less enthusiastic than others. If there was a referendum tomorrow, it would be close. But for it (just a feeling, adjusted for likely voters being more pro-unification)

Should the current NI Protocol be kept, and prove positive for NI, then I think NI would be happy with the relative status afforded to it. Should the NI protocol be dumped, and that have a negative financial impact on NI, I can see attitudes toward a reunification become more favorable.

M.

[anonymous-user]

Looks like France is about to be bypassed.

'Transport Secretary Grant Shapps says that hauliers to the Netherlands will not need to take Covid tests from 16 March, if they have spent less than 48 hours in the UK.

Shapps tweets that it is "good news" and says it will ease the movement of freight and goods.

The transport secretary says the change is due to the UK's Covid rate being below France, Germany, Belgium and Holland.'

[citizensm1th]

digimeistter said:

Looks like France is about to be bypassed.

'Transport Secretary Grant Shapps says that hauliers to the Netherlands will not need to take Covid tests from 16 March, if they have spent less than 48 hours in the UK.

Shapps tweets that it is "good news" and says it will ease the movement of freight and goods.

The transport secretary says the change is due to the UK's Covid rate being below France, Germany, Belgium and Holland.'

What's been the Dutch reaction to that little gem