Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)

Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)

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loafer123

15,448 posts

216 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
rockin said:
loafer123 said:
it has been done many many times before.
Meanwhile, back in sunny UK, how's that "border down the Irish Sea" working out? Well, the expression "UK" doesn't really call to mind a united much of anything. Let's have a quick check around,
  • England and Wales? More or less still there, despite the best efforts of the Welsh disassembly. Four week fire break? Border at the Severn Estuary? Nice work lads.
  • Scotland? Wee Jimmy Crankie is on track to leave leave UK and rejoin EU if she can get her old mate Alex on side. Don't hold your breath. Boom time for Boris and his hangers on? In your prayers.
  • Northern Ireland? Ah, now there's a question. Although, of course, there are no issues - so nothing to talk about. Not a thing. No, really, nothing at all. Except Arlene Foster's impersonation of Ian Paisley. It's a very good impersonation. Lovely woman. As honest as the day is long.
You seem pleased...which is, frankly pretty horrible.

From my perspective, as an actual exporter, other than Spain and the island of Ireland, everything is now working fine as the backlog gets cleared. Sorry if that doesn’t fit your narrative.

Spain is just terrible organisation and will get better. As for the island of Ireland, it is only a matter of time before the right processes are put in place. The alternative is something neither side wants and they are already talking about solutions.

I know that will disappoint many on here, including you, but that says more about you than you care to admit.



anonymous-user

55 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
You seem pleased...which is, frankly pretty horrible.
That is a figment of your own mind, generated from your perverse and distorted perspective.

blueg33

35,974 posts

225 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
166 MM Barchetta said:
Word fail me that I actually voted the same way that some on here claim to have voted.
As someone who wanted to remain I have taken quite some education from this and the negotiation topic.
I will happily admit that I voted economically, but I also voted with a big slice of, I suppose, lethargy.
I was happy with things as they were, I didn’t want, or maybe, I couldn’t see the point of change, when for me, it wasn’t needed.
When I see posts plunging to the depths of “the vintage watch industry” being effected by Brexit I frankly despair at the desperation of some to “score points”.
I mean, at what point did the poster who posted that, and many others, consider the vintage watch industry when they voted, simply, they didn’t, they never knew anything about it but suddenly it’s and issue. It’s disingenuous bullst.
People voted for all manner of reasons both to stay and to leave, it seems that the remain side, my side, really are struggling with all of this, it’s got to the point where I think that some of the remain camp on here think that if they find enough issues the whole thing goes back to the way they were by magic.
Or, more importantly on here, if they get an apology from those who voted leave then it’s a win, but the apology changes nothing, it doesn’t magically repair the damage to whatever niche industry they’ve found to say “I told you so”, but they don’t care, and that’s what separates the desperate trolls from those who want to discuss it. It’s as embarrassing as it is obvious.

To Blue, I don’t really want the details, I’m sure things have been awful if you have to move, but don’t be that poster that demands all the details about leaving in the hope you can trip someone up, whilst at the same time giving us all nothing but anecdotal evidence about the bad side with out challenge. It simply doesn’t add up, and, as I feel I’ve point out, it doesn’t work one way.
As a proud Yorkshireman I’m gutted to see business leaving, so all the best, if there’s anything that can change then I hope it does. ( nothing wrong with green or brown Ferrari’s either wink )
You mis read my posts. Factory is not closing, it’s the planned expansion and associated investment will be in Europe, although if I can close a deal I am working on, we may add a shift in the factory as that deal will be production for the Uk

As for planning, no plan survives first contact with the enemy. Hence the change to enable us to properly serve customers in Europe, and use our EU supply chains effectively.

If you sign a binding unlimited liability NDA I’ll tell you the name of the factory. Or if you keep your eyes peeled you may see a new prototype appear outside;)

anonymous-user

55 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
The serious question is how on earth Boris or anyone else is going to "reassemble" the UK into a viable, single entity.

At a time when "tory sleaze" is back in the headlines and there are fears of the "red wall" crumbling - it's far from clear.

loafer123

15,448 posts

216 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
rockin said:
loafer123 said:
You seem pleased...which is, frankly pretty horrible.
That is a figment of your own mind, generated from your perverse and distorted perspective.
And yet you seem to take pleasure in any and every possible sign of a potential failure of the democratically decided path that the U.K. is taking, and therefore seem to want us to suffer and fail.

Odd. Very very odd.

166 MM Barchetta

692 posts

58 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
blueg33 said:
166 MM Barchetta said:
Word fail me that I actually voted the same way that some on here claim to have voted.
As someone who wanted to remain I have taken quite some education from this and the negotiation topic.
I will happily admit that I voted economically, but I also voted with a big slice of, I suppose, lethargy.
I was happy with things as they were, I didn’t want, or maybe, I couldn’t see the point of change, when for me, it wasn’t needed.
When I see posts plunging to the depths of “the vintage watch industry” being effected by Brexit I frankly despair at the desperation of some to “score points”.
I mean, at what point did the poster who posted that, and many others, consider the vintage watch industry when they voted, simply, they didn’t, they never knew anything about it but suddenly it’s and issue. It’s disingenuous bullst.
People voted for all manner of reasons both to stay and to leave, it seems that the remain side, my side, really are struggling with all of this, it’s got to the point where I think that some of the remain camp on here think that if they find enough issues the whole thing goes back to the way they were by magic.
Or, more importantly on here, if they get an apology from those who voted leave then it’s a win, but the apology changes nothing, it doesn’t magically repair the damage to whatever niche industry they’ve found to say “I told you so”, but they don’t care, and that’s what separates the desperate trolls from those who want to discuss it. It’s as embarrassing as it is obvious.

To Blue, I don’t really want the details, I’m sure things have been awful if you have to move, but don’t be that poster that demands all the details about leaving in the hope you can trip someone up, whilst at the same time giving us all nothing but anecdotal evidence about the bad side with out challenge. It simply doesn’t add up, and, as I feel I’ve point out, it doesn’t work one way.
As a proud Yorkshireman I’m gutted to see business leaving, so all the best, if there’s anything that can change then I hope it does. ( nothing wrong with green or brown Ferrari’s either wink )
You mis read my posts. Factory is not closing, it’s the planned expansion and associated investment will be in Europe, although if I can close a deal I am working on, we may add a shift in the factory as that deal will be production for the Uk

As for planning, no plan survives first contact with the enemy. Hence the change to enable us to properly serve customers in Europe, and use our EU supply chains effectively.

If you sign a binding unlimited liability NDA I’ll tell you the name of the factory. Or if you keep your eyes peeled you may see a new prototype appear outside;)
Apologies, I did think you were off, glad you’re not. Not wanting to pry too much but if it’s a logistics issue, was the issue with the import side, if not did you look at one of the 3PL firms to take the responsibility and cost?
No worries about the naming, hope you get the point I was making, didn’t want to offend.
Out of interest though, are you anything to do with a North Yorkshire automotive industry firm that was bought out, I heard some staff were planning to go it alone?

Vanden Saab

14,126 posts

75 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
It is not two sides it is those who voted to leave and the graceful remain voters and a small number of sore losers... This might help.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/losers-c...

It is almost like they knew you when they wrote it...

166 MM Barchetta

692 posts

58 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
In my opinion, every single one of those people who campaigned for a second vote / people’s vote / confirmatory vote, all who wanted to use legal challenges to stall or hope to overturn the result, all of them, are all responsible for that idiot being in charge.
They should all take full responsibility for him being in power due to their stalling tactics, their bitter ignorance caused all this.
As far as PH goes, it’s frankly pathetic and laughable to see them bh on the Boris thread and then, astonishingly bh again on the Farage thread about Farage being a chancer and a grifter, well, if you want to see a political chancer and a grifter then I give you Boris Johnson
All you selfish bitter remain voters who thought you knew better, not only did you think you knew better than leave, for some reason you thought you knew better than the rest of us remain voters with your cowardly “people’s vote”, I mean really, “people’s vote”, just grow a spine as say it like it is, you wanted to stop the result but you don’t have the courage to say it.
Well. you gave him the chance, and you are responsible for him being in charge.........


If there’s one thing, as I think you can now see via my rant, that really boils my piss, it’s remain voters complaint about Johnson but advocating the several years of disruption after the vote as they tried to stop it. Cowards, the lot of them.....

wc98

10,416 posts

141 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
rockin said:
The serious question is how on earth Boris or anyone else is going to "reassemble" the UK into a viable, single entity.

At a time when "tory sleaze" is back in the headlines and there are fears of the "red wall" crumbling - it's far from clear.
neither he nor any other politician will do that. it will be the people of the uk that do it despite the politicians. the same way the business problems will be addressed, by ordinary business people here and their counterparts in europe that time after time manage to get business done despite the utter clowns that seem to dominate politics in the developed world these days.

i personally have no problem with people that face genuine issues as a result of brexit having a go at those that voted for it. it is understandable frustration that the situation will bring about some venting.


Sway

26,315 posts

195 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
extraT said:
Morning. Genuinely interested in hearing (civilised) thoughts from the pro-Brexiteers in this thread.

This is a real world scenario that we have just gone through.

I’m British married to an Austrian and we have a children’s clothes and accessories store here in Austria. Because of the “sweetness” of the brands and my Britishness, we have always tried to have a few British brands in our shops. The customers like them too. Not many brands, but a few, like I say.

This morning was the final straw and we will not be ordering British brands again - or at least until there is clarity and costs are brought into line with the EU.

We had ordered a small consignment of clothes and accessories from a lovely, family owned supplier. I don’t think they do huge volumes but we are a regular customer so I know our custom means a lot to them. Or at least it feels that way. On a 600euro order, we’ve been hit with almost 200euro customs charge.

My wife and I will speak to the supplier to tell them either:

They reduce the customs charges off their invoices in future

Or

We will not order from them again.

Either way, Brexit will hit this supplier and they will lose money.

As I said, this is a real world example of Brexit affecting small companies from just this morning. I’ve tried to present both sides (ours as an EU based business and the UK supplier- and they really aren’t a big business either);I’m genuinely interested to hear reasonable thoughts on how trade is handled (and not the typical bluster this thread brings).
A supplier has no control over customs charges... Textiles have huge tariffs on - and it would seem (unsurprisingly) they've fallen foul of Country of Origin rules so the issue will actually be that they're not considered "British goods" and so are outside the Free Trade Agreement.

That's a function of placing massive tariffs on commodities that are predominantly produced in the developing world...

As an aside, if you sell/ship to the UK from Austria, be really careful about determining the County of Origin based upon the rules. It is not straightforward for your industry at all...

Sway

26,315 posts

195 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
JagLover said:
sunbeam alpine said:
JagLover said:
Somewhat late to this but it is the small scale stuff that isn't worth bothering with anymore...
This is where I absolutely disagree. I've always viewed the effect of Brexit more as a "death of a thousand cuts" than a massive crash.
I think you misinterpreted my post.

I was referring to the fact that small trading transactions across borders may not be worth doing anymore. Hence why I referenced a client who set up an American distributor to get around the exact same issue when selling to the USA.

Such small trading transactions might well add up to a considerable amount overall. The success, or failure, of Brexit however is not determined by trade with the EU remaining exactly the same once we have left the single market. After all the importance of the EU as a percentage of our exports had been in decline for two decades and adding new barriers is hardly likely to stop that trend.

The success will depend on what we do with our new freedom and the economic and social consequences of that.
Somewhat valid for trading outside an FTA. Broadly irrelevant when it comes to shipping what's perceived as British (or 'EU') goods by the market, but not according to the CoO rules...

Iminquarantine

2,168 posts

45 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
Vanden Saab said:
Jazzer77 said:
Hilarious, if you were not just a hit and runner you would have seen that this was covered a couple of days ago when one of your fellow bad news gloaters posted it. I see your 400 hundred out and raise you over 1,000 in...
BBC said:
Brexit: 1,000 EU finance firms 'set to open UK offices
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56155531
I know you should be embarrassed but I doubt you will be...
rofl
I see the Quitters have still quit doing any background reading too their posts.

The £1tn in assets and 7,400 jobs are real UK jobs which have moved to the EU already.

The BBC article, links to this article https://www.bovill.com/london-remains-financial-se...
Bovill is a financial services regulatory consultancy. Companies pay them, to give advice. Here is what they can offer companies navigating UK FCA compliance: https://www.bovill.com/service/authorisations-appl... It is Bovill's job to talk up this number and they directly benefit from as many firms as possible using their services.

The "1000" number is calculated by Bovill based on the number of EU firms who have applied to the FSA multiplied by the percentage who have a regulatory requirement to have a UK office. "Bovill’s FOI from last year showed 1,441 firms had applied to the TPR and 83% of these were on a ‘services’ passport, meaning they would need to set up a UK office for the first time. With the Brexit transition period over and the TPR window closed, Bovill repeated its FOI at the end of December 2020 finding 1,476 firms have signed up to the regime and are awaiting FCA authorisation in order to operate in the UK."

Therefore unlike the 7,400 jobs which have actually left the City of London for the EU, the talk of 1000 EU firms setting up UK offices:
- assumes that it will be more than just a brass plate office
- assumes that the firm will actually set up an office, rather than let their application with the FSA lapse

So, there is a 7400 job loss as of about a month ago, which is growing. The are 1000 firms opening an office in the UK at some point in the future, minus the ones who decide they can't be bothered. Then there are also similar UK firms who will either give up on EU business, or just continue to move more of their UK staff to the EU. Infact the FCA says this, "The extent to which UK firms can continue to provide services to customers in the EEA depends on local law and local regulators’ expectations. We expect UK firms to take the steps available to them to make sure they act consistently with these local laws and expectations. We are clear that firms’ decisions need to be guided by obtaining appropriate outcomes for their customers, wherever they are based." https://www.fca.org.uk/news/news-stories/regulator...

7400 jobs have gone, there is a potential future benefit of EU firms opening local offices. More jobs continue to go to the EU which will counteract any EU jobs coming in. UK firms will now have to open EU offices, or some just won't bother doing any EU business.

Meanwhile, I haven't posted any stories of winning for a while, but here is one.
Welsh bicycle manufacturer just over the moon at £250,000 worth of sovereignty
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/brex...
'Brexit cost my bicycle business £250,000 extra in just two months, and I can't see any positives'

Sway

26,315 posts

195 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
Why do you think it is that the relocations to the EU weren't brass plate offices, but that you think the ones in the other direction would be?

Actually, don't bother. I'll keep to my pledge to only post on this thread to help people, not argue the same old ste. I'm far too busy.

anonymous-user

55 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
quotequote all
Sway said:
Why do you think it is that the relocations to the EU weren't brass plate offices, but that you think the ones in the other direction would be?
Because knobhead.

Iminquarantine

2,168 posts

45 months

Monday 19th April 2021
quotequote all
Sway said:
Why do you think it is that the relocations to the EU weren't brass plate offices, but that you think the ones in the other direction would be?

Actually, don't bother. I'll keep to my pledge to only post on this thread to help people, not argue the same old ste. I'm far too busy.
Well you aren't so busy as to write a completely pointless second paragraph.

I cannot and you cannot say who will be opening a well staffed office and who will be opening a brass plaque office. It's reasonable to assume that both UK and EU companies could open a mix of both. We are still then in a position where £1tn in funds and 7400 jobs have already left the UK for the EU. Meanwhile at some point in the future EU companies may open UK offices to keep doing what they were doing (a net benefit) and UK companies may open EU offices (a net loss).

Iminquarantine

2,168 posts

45 months

Monday 19th April 2021
quotequote all
jsf said:
Because knobhead.
Hi jsf! I see the stupid is strong with you tonight!

Sway

26,315 posts

195 months

Monday 19th April 2021
quotequote all
Iminquarantine said:
Sway said:
Why do you think it is that the relocations to the EU weren't brass plate offices, but that you think the ones in the other direction would be?

Actually, don't bother. I'll keep to my pledge to only post on this thread to help people, not argue the same old ste. I'm far too busy.
Well you aren't so busy as to write a completely pointless second paragraph.

I cannot and you cannot say who will be opening a well staffed office and who will be opening a brass plaque office. It's reasonable to assume that both UK and EU companies could open a mix of both. We are still then in a position where £1tn in funds and 7400 jobs have already left the UK for the EU. Meanwhile at some point in the future EU companies may open UK offices to keep doing what they were doing (a net benefit) and UK companies may open EU offices (a net loss).
It's midnight on Sunday evening... I'll find a sec just this once.

Ask MrrT why it's not 'reasonable' at all to expect a mix of both 'well staffed' and 'brass plates'.

Night.

Iminquarantine

2,168 posts

45 months

Monday 19th April 2021
quotequote all
Iminquarantine said:
jsf said:
Because knobhead.
Hi jsf! I see the stupid is strong with you tonight!
The other reason is this:
https://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/eu-regulator-rule...
(2017 article; I welcome links, rather than banal insults, about what the FCA position on brass plate passporting is)

166 MM Barchetta

692 posts

58 months

Monday 19th April 2021
quotequote all
Iminquarantine said:
jsf said:
Because knobhead.
Hi jsf! I see the stupid is strong with you tonight!
You welcome links rather than banal insults..............


anonymous-user

55 months

Monday 19th April 2021
quotequote all
Iminquarantine said:
I see the Quitters have still quit doing any background reading too their posts.

The £1tn in assets and 7,400 jobs are real UK jobs which have moved to the EU already.

The BBC article, links to this article https://www.bovill.com/london-remains-financial-se...
Bovill is a financial services regulatory consultancy. Companies pay them, to give advice. Here is what they can offer companies navigating UK FCA compliance: https://www.bovill.com/service/authorisations-appl... It is Bovill's job to talk up this number and they directly benefit from as many firms as possible using their services.

The "1000" number is calculated by Bovill based on the number of EU firms who have applied to the FSA multiplied by the percentage who have a regulatory requirement to have a UK office. "Bovill’s FOI from last year showed 1,441 firms had applied to the TPR and 83% of these were on a ‘services’ passport, meaning they would need to set up a UK office for the first time. With the Brexit transition period over and the TPR window closed, Bovill repeated its FOI at the end of December 2020 finding 1,476 firms have signed up to the regime and are awaiting FCA authorisation in order to operate in the UK."

Therefore unlike the 7,400 jobs which have actually left the City of London for the EU, the talk of 1000 EU firms setting up UK offices:
- assumes that it will be more than just a brass plate office
- assumes that the firm will actually set up an office, rather than let their application with the FSA lapse

So, there is a 7400 job loss as of about a month ago, which is growing. The are 1000 firms opening an office in the UK at some point in the future, minus the ones who decide they can't be bothered. Then there are also similar UK firms who will either give up on EU business, or just continue to move more of their UK staff to the EU. Infact the FCA says this, "The extent to which UK firms can continue to provide services to customers in the EEA depends on local law and local regulators’ expectations. We expect UK firms to take the steps available to them to make sure they act consistently with these local laws and expectations. We are clear that firms’ decisions need to be guided by obtaining appropriate outcomes for their customers, wherever they are based." https://www.fca.org.uk/news/news-stories/regulator...

7400 jobs have gone, there is a potential future benefit of EU firms opening local offices. More jobs continue to go to the EU which will counteract any EU jobs coming in. UK firms will now have to open EU offices, or some just won't bother doing any EU business.

Meanwhile, I haven't posted any stories of winning for a while, but here is one.
Welsh bicycle manufacturer just over the moon at £250,000 worth of sovereignty
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/brex...
'Brexit cost my bicycle business £250,000 extra in just two months, and I can't see any positives'
Goldman Sach’s, Remain tubthumpers seem to have added over 600 jobs in the U.K. since the Brexit vote. In fact just last week they announced they were opening a brand new office for an additional 400 finance workers. That location would surely be in the EU right?

Ummmm no, Birmingham actually.

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