Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)

[Iminquarantine]

Sway said:

Yes.

That's not unique...

I could point to a manufacturing sector worth a couple of trillion a year, with only two competitors.

Boeing and Airbus have exceptionally high barriers to entry for new competition, if that is what you are referring to. A few hundred million is loose change in comparison and I don’t see how it could have similar barriers to entry for competitors.

[blueg33]

Iminquarantine said:

blueg33 said:

Get a grip man

Probably upset you aren’t onboard with all this winning and new prosperity all around.

Must be it.

[anonymous-user]

blueg33 said:

Iminquarantine said:

blueg33 said:

Get a grip man

Probably upset you aren’t onboard with all this winning and new prosperity all around.

Must be it.

I think he’s having a bad day. Similar behaviour on the Boris thread.

[Sway]

Iminquarantine said:

Sway said:

Yes.

That's not unique...

I could point to a manufacturing sector worth a couple of trillion a year, with only two competitors.

Boeing and Airbus have exceptionally high barriers to entry for new competition, if that is what you are referring to. A few hundred million is loose change in comparison and I don’t see how it could have similar barriers to entry for competitors.

What correlation is there between revenue and cost of entry?

Please show your workings, as I'd love to know how you can refute my claim when I work for the actual company and you don't even know who they are or which sector they operate in...

Especially when there are PHers who disagree with me over brexit and have posted in these threads, who are personal friends who do have access to that information you're lacking...

[crankedup]

Iminquarantine said:

crankedup said:

An emerging economy is just that, emerging, gaining greater prominence and prosperity. This is a economy that seeks a good trade deal, one that the U.K. will certainly be of a equal value to both partners.
I agree that the bias that you choose t9 show in your post does indeed represent ‘an odd plan’, but not a plan that has any relevance to the future U.K. trade agreements.

The EU is already doing trade agreements with emerging economies.

For example this one:
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-merc...

These countries benefit from a trade agreement with the EU, given it has about 7x the population of the UK and about 6x the economy size, for the same amount of effort going into negotiations.

The UK will get the crumbs. Even Australia, which has a smaller economy than the UK, is going to be dictating the rules to the subservient UK.

Remove the dead weight from the EU zone and the picture you paint isn’t anything like a rosy as you wish to portray.
I do not accept your premise of the U.K. being subservient and be dictated to, that is just hyper bole language. The U.K. is a highly successful wealthy Nation, I see no foreseeable reasons for that to decline.

[crankedup]

Iminquarantine said:

crankedup said:

As for future trade deals, they are, as you well know, built upon more than just hope. That is a ridiculous suggestion to make.

If these nebulous trade deals were not built on (baseless) hope, then the U.K. would not have left a large and powerful trading bloc, with the idea that it could leapfrog it and do better itself.

As Clint Eastwood said, just before watching someone blow themselves up, people have “got to know their limitations”.

Looking at how the EC conducts its negotiations recently reminds me of why the EU is a political organisation without roots in reality of the member Country populations. With great power comes great responsibility, something the EC clearly do not understand or follow. Leaving such an organisation was a decision made just in time.

[andymadmak]

El stovey said:

I think he’s having a bad day. Similar behaviour on the Boris thread.

Actually I am having a lovely day. Just interesting watching some people pretending that making stuff up counts as facts. Blue's attempts at satire are there to be judged. Some will find them funny. Others will see them as an insight into his character - that the mask has slipped.

[loafer123]

loafer123 said:

Iminquarantine said:

The EU is already doing trade agreements with emerging economies.

For example this one:
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-merc...

Wiki says:

The European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur reached agreement in principle in 2019.

The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations.

Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force.


20 years to reach a deal in principle which, nearly two years later, is still not in operation?

In fact Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Ireland and others have said that they will not ratify the deal as proposed.

I think you are making my point for me...

Cat got your tongue?

[Iminquarantine]

Sway said:

Iminquarantine said:

Sway said:

Yes.

That's not unique...

I could point to a manufacturing sector worth a couple of trillion a year, with only two competitors.

Boeing and Airbus have exceptionally high barriers to entry for new competition, if that is what you are referring to. A few hundred million is loose change in comparison and I don’t see how it could have similar barriers to entry for competitors.

What correlation is there between revenue and cost of entry?

Please show your workings, as I'd love to know how you can refute my claim when I work for the actual company and you don't even know who they are or which sector they operate in...

Especially when there are PHers who disagree with me over brexit and have posted in these threads, who are personal friends who do have access to that information you're lacking...

Well, no need to be obtuse. Boeing and Airbus, if that is who you are referring to because you are being obtuse so who knows what you are really referring to, have very high barriers to entry as aviation is highly regulated, their aircraft are expensive, their products are safety critical and the certification process takes years, all before they get any money.

If you could explain to a clearly thick Remainer what makes a relatively small value industry so hard to break in to, I'd be happy to listen. You have also said your contracts are worth a few hundred million (there may be more outside the EU, you haven't said) and compared it to "trillions", so lets be generous and say a factor of 1000x difference. Why could companies a factor of 1000x the size be useful as a good comparison example?

There is no point about talking about "access to information" from "personal friends". If you have information, share it. This is a public internet forum, not the Conservative Party or some other network where you need to know someone to get information or benefit.

[crankedup]

loafer123 said:

loafer123 said:

Iminquarantine said:

The EU is already doing trade agreements with emerging economies.

For example this one:
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-merc...

Wiki says:

The European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur reached agreement in principle in 2019.

The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations.

Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force.


20 years to reach a deal in principle which, nearly two years later, is still not in operation?

In fact Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Ireland and others have said that they will not ratify the deal as proposed.

I think you are making my point for me...

Cat got your tongue?

Twenty years to agree a trade deal and still not ratified We haven’t anything to fear of the EU pulling the rug from under.

[Sway]

Iminquarantine said:

Sway said:

Iminquarantine said:

Sway said:

Yes.

That's not unique...

I could point to a manufacturing sector worth a couple of trillion a year, with only two competitors.

Boeing and Airbus have exceptionally high barriers to entry for new competition, if that is what you are referring to. A few hundred million is loose change in comparison and I don’t see how it could have similar barriers to entry for competitors.

What correlation is there between revenue and cost of entry?

Please show your workings, as I'd love to know how you can refute my claim when I work for the actual company and you don't even know who they are or which sector they operate in...

Especially when there are PHers who disagree with me over brexit and have posted in these threads, who are personal friends who do have access to that information you're lacking...

Well, no need to be obtuse. Boeing and Airbus, if that is who you are referring to because you are being obtuse so who knows what you are really referring to, have very high barriers to entry as aviation is highly regulated, their aircraft are expensive, their products are safety critical and the certification process takes years, all before they get any money.

If you could explain to a clearly thick Remainer what makes a relatively small value industry so hard to break in to, I'd be happy to listen. You have also said your contracts are worth a few hundred million (there may be more outside the EU, you haven't said) and compared it to "trillions", so lets be generous and say a factor of 1000x difference. Why could companies a factor of 1000x the size be useful as a good comparison example?

There is no point about talking about "access to information" from "personal friends". If you have information, share it. This is a public internet forum, not the Conservative Party or some other network where you need to know someone to get information or benefit.

So you can't draw a comparison between annual revenue and cost of entry? Imagine my surprise.

I'm well aware of the reasons why the barriers to entry are so high for sales of passenger airliners. I can also understand that those reasons aren't unique to passenger airliners, and can also apply to much smaller sub-sectors of manufacturing industry...

Of course, the differences in global market opportunity also mean that the barriers of entry 'can' (but not always are) be commensurately lower, and therefore a sufficient barrier to others looking and choosing whether they want to come and play in the same pond.

If you really think I'm going to be more explicit than that, on a public forum, where I and my employer would be very easily determined, then I'm not sure what I can say.

[Iminquarantine]

loafer123 said:

loafer123 said:

Iminquarantine said:

The EU is already doing trade agreements with emerging economies.

For example this one:
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-merc...

Wiki says:

The European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur reached agreement in principle in 2019.

The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations.

Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force.


20 years to reach a deal in principle which, nearly two years later, is still not in operation?

In fact Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Ireland and others have said that they will not ratify the deal as proposed.

I think you are making my point for me...

Cat got your tongue?

Oh, I am so sorry. I am so sorry I did not instantly reply to your post as you so clearly demand. I really do apologise. A Quitter needed instant service and didn't get it. Perhaps you could engage a better servant who gives a fk?

But onto your post, pointless though it was. Trade deals take a long time. The Canada deal took a long time. The foundation for the Mercosur deal is there. As it is for the EU-Mexico deal. As it was for South Korea, or the Ukraine. Meanwhile the quickie trade deal between the UK and US on a limited range of products like whiskey, well that didn't happen did it? That's because trade deals take time.

Can you remind me how UK trade deals, beyond the continuation agreements, are going?

[blueg33]

crankedup said:

Well I HOPE your brexit voting employees take you to court on the basis of discrimination

As for future trade deals, they are, as you well know, built upon more than just hope. That is a ridiculous suggestion to make.

What are they built on? We couldn't even start discussions until jan this year

If we don't have a trade deal at the moment - then it is just hope that we get one in the future. We have to hope that we can agree terms, have to hope that our negotiators don't ps off the other side, we have to hope that the market is real and big enough to replace what we have lost, we have to hope it happens quickly, we have to hope that some of our hard hit exporters are still around to take advantage of said deal.

Seems like a lot of "hopes" in there (avoided school playground style Bob Hope jokes)

[Iminquarantine]

Sway said:

So you can't draw a comparison between annual revenue and cost of entry? Imagine my surprise.

I'm well aware of the reasons why the barriers to entry are so high for sales of passenger airliners. I can also understand that those reasons aren't unique to passenger airliners, and can also apply to much smaller sub-sectors of manufacturing industry...

Of course, the differences in global market opportunity also mean that the barriers of entry 'can' (but not always are) be commensurately lower, and therefore a sufficient barrier to others looking and choosing whether they want to come and play in the same pond.

If you really think I'm going to be more explicit than that, on a public forum, where I and my employer would be very easily determined, then I'm not sure what I can say.

That's just silly. You can provide mush more information that you have. Going back to the Boeing-Airbus example, they are far from the only manufacturer of airplanes. They are just the only companies making full size passenger jetliners. I find it hard to believe there are only two companies at all in your industry. You could easily provide information about your industry and its barriers to entry, without identifying yourself.

[loafer123]

Iminquarantine said:

Oh, I am so sorry. I am so sorry I did not instantly reply to your post as you so clearly demand. I really do apologise. A Quitter needed instant service and didn't get it. Perhaps you could engage a better servant who gives a fk?

But onto your post, pointless though it was. Trade deals take a long time. The Canada deal took a long time. The foundation for the Mercosur deal is there. As it is for the EU-Mexico deal. As it was for South Korea, or the Ukraine. Meanwhile the quickie trade deal between the UK and US on a limited range of products like whiskey, well that didn't happen did it? That's because trade deals take time.

Can you remind me how UK trade deals, beyond the continuation agreements, are going?

Well you were busy replying to everyone else, so I assumed you were trying to ignore the inconvenient truth that the EU is crap at trade deals.

If you read up on the Mercosur deal, it is very clear it will never come into operation, so the framework is a pointless waste of time. 20 years for nothing other than PR.

As for the UK performance...basically everyone rightly said "we will discuss trade once your new relationship with the EU is clear".

We are now just over 3 months into that, so I think you are being disingenuous to criticise the lack of progress - actually they are doing pretty well.

[Sway]

Iminquarantine said:

Sway said:

So you can't draw a comparison between annual revenue and cost of entry? Imagine my surprise.

I'm well aware of the reasons why the barriers to entry are so high for sales of passenger airliners. I can also understand that those reasons aren't unique to passenger airliners, and can also apply to much smaller sub-sectors of manufacturing industry...

Of course, the differences in global market opportunity also mean that the barriers of entry 'can' (but not always are) be commensurately lower, and therefore a sufficient barrier to others looking and choosing whether they want to come and play in the same pond.

If you really think I'm going to be more explicit than that, on a public forum, where I and my employer would be very easily determined, then I'm not sure what I can say.

That's just silly. You can provide mush more information that you have. Going back to the Boeing-Airbus example, they are far from the only manufacturer of airplanes. They are just the only companies making full size passenger jetliners. I find it hard to believe there are only two companies at all in your industry. You could easily provide information about your industry and its barriers to entry, without identifying yourself.

I never said there were only two businesses in my entire industry...

I said we only have one competitor, and that's for a couple of reasons - many of which are directly comparable to the Boeing/Airbus duopoly.

I've also pointed to and essentially confirmed that many of the reasons why AB/B don't have competition in their sector as also applying to my employer - and that those examples are even more pertinent when the global revenues are an order of magnitude lower.

To give any more info than that, is to give sufficient info for me and my employer to be personally identifiable.

I'm not going to try to appease you any more than this - and if you can't understand why, that's not my problem.

[crankedup]

Iminquarantine said:

Sway said:

Iminquarantine said:

Sway said:

Yes.

That's not unique...

I could point to a manufacturing sector worth a couple of trillion a year, with only two competitors.

Boeing and Airbus have exceptionally high barriers to entry for new competition, if that is what you are referring to. A few hundred million is loose change in comparison and I don’t see how it could have similar barriers to entry for competitors.

What correlation is there between revenue and cost of entry?

Please show your workings, as I'd love to know how you can refute my claim when I work for the actual company and you don't even know who they are or which sector they operate in...

Especially when there are PHers who disagree with me over brexit and have posted in these threads, who are personal friends who do have access to that information you're lacking...

Well, no need to be obtuse. Boeing and Airbus, if that is who you are referring to because you are being obtuse so who knows what you are really referring to, have very high barriers to entry as aviation is highly regulated, their aircraft are expensive, their products are safety critical and the certification process takes years, all before they get any money.

If you could explain to a clearly thick Remainer what makes a relatively small value industry so hard to break in to, I'd be happy to listen. You have also said your contracts are worth a few hundred million (there may be more outside the EU, you haven't said) and compared it to "trillions", so lets be generous and say a factor of 1000x difference. Why could companies a factor of 1000x the size be useful as a good comparison example?

There is no point about talking about "access to information" from "personal friends". If you have information, share it. This is a public internet forum, not the Conservative Party or some other network where you need to know someone to get information or benefit.

Documentary a few years ago showed the uncovering of deep seated fraud within the aircraft industry around its supply of replacement component parts. Major fraud involving counterfeiting and illegal use of authorisation labels. Took several years to uncover this fraud following a number of aircraft crashes. No system is foolproof wether it’s politics, business deals and plain dishonesty.

[crankedup]

blueg33 said:

crankedup said:

Well I HOPE your brexit voting employees take you to court on the basis of discrimination

As for future trade deals, they are, as you well know, built upon more than just hope. That is a ridiculous suggestion to make.

What are they built on? We couldn't even start discussions until jan this year

If we don't have a trade deal at the moment - then it is just hope that we get one in the future. We have to hope that we can agree terms, have to hope that our negotiators don't ps off the other side, we have to hope that the market is real and big enough to replace what we have lost, we have to hope it happens quickly, we have to hope that some of our hard hit exporters are still around to take advantage of said deal.

Seems like a lot of "hopes" in there (avoided school playground style Bob Hope jokes)

It has very little to do with hope, U.K. trade deals were being discussed years before our EU exit.
Do you think business do not look at options around the World, perhaps you think business does not talk to our Government (lobbying). We do more than hope, we make things happen and that goes for both sides who want a deal.
We can still trade with the EU zone, it’s the paper trail that has changed together with customs charges. But you know that.
We all have hope, well at least I HOPE so, but somethings require a little more effort putting in, and that is what is happening.

Hope has its place of course but does not sit alone.

[gizlaroc]

Is this thread still going?

fk me, with the shambles that is covid who cares about Brexit anymore?



I am now nearly 5 months in, just about all the niggles have been ironed out, the suppliers who have arrogantly shrugged their shoulders and used crap couriers who are trying to make profits from this are now wondering why we have not placed any more orders from them, the fact they are shocked is the only shock.

We have changed couriers to those who are doing it properly.

The fact they are shocked we are not using them anymore is the only shock.


We have gone from 70/30 EU UK purchasing to 30/70 for next season.


The "Made in Germany" and "Made in Italy" products that we have been buying for the last couple of decades.....turns out they are not at all. They are made wherever it is cheapest for them to make.
They have been caught out with the new Country Of Origin tariffs big time and having a hissy fit over it. 2 rather large companies tried to blame Brexit for the 12% tariff presuming we are all stupid, however, they did it in an open email and so I replied to all, pointing out that it is actually the fact they have lied about where the product is made and that is why there is a 12% tariff, and it is an EU wide tariff from July 1st.
They went very quiet and are now refusing to reply and all communication to be done through their UK agents only going forward.

We have parted company.

One of my suppliers said that their UK orders have doubled for next season, even during a pandemic, and everyone said the same, will be putting more into UK buys going forward. They have taken on considerably more staff to cope.


So all in all I would say I am pretty pleased with the outcome so far.

Will admit some teething problems had me wondering, but no, seems to be pretty good for UK PLC in my game.

[blueg33]

crankedup said:

blueg33 said:

crankedup said:

Well I HOPE your brexit voting employees take you to court on the basis of discrimination

As for future trade deals, they are, as you well know, built upon more than just hope. That is a ridiculous suggestion to make.

What are they built on? We couldn't even start discussions until jan this year

If we don't have a trade deal at the moment - then it is just hope that we get one in the future. We have to hope that we can agree terms, have to hope that our negotiators don't ps off the other side, we have to hope that the market is real and big enough to replace what we have lost, we have to hope it happens quickly, we have to hope that some of our hard hit exporters are still around to take advantage of said deal.

Seems like a lot of "hopes" in there (avoided school playground style Bob Hope jokes)

It has very little to do with hope, U.K. trade deals were being discussed years before our EU exit.
Do you think business do not look at options around the World, perhaps you think business does not talk to our Government (lobbying). We do more than hope, we make things happen and that goes for both sides who want a deal.
We can still trade with the EU zone, it’s the paper trail that has changed together with customs charges. But you know that.
We all have hope, well at least I HOPE so, but somethings require a little more effort putting in, and that is what is happening.

Hope has its place of course but does not sit alone.

Of course I know that business talks to government, I have done it myself at secretary of state level and have spent more time talking to special advisors and MP's in Portcullis house than I care to remember (possibly the worst coffee since British Rail)

However, the EU rules meant that we could not enter negotiations before Brexit - one of the many lies that David Davies told people before the vote is that we could