Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 2)
Discussion
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hstewie said:
hstewie said: This is the bit I really can't work out.
Even if there's a "well you used to be members we can trust you on this" agreement it still has to be defined somewhere as an agreement.
And that's before the other 3rd countries thing.
We chose to become a 3rd country with certain things agreed and that wasn't one of them.
That's kind of the point really.
The UK wanted the freedom to make its own rules, that comes with a price. Even if there's a "well you used to be members we can trust you on this" agreement it still has to be defined somewhere as an agreement.
And that's before the other 3rd countries thing.
We chose to become a 3rd country with certain things agreed and that wasn't one of them.
That's kind of the point really.
The question is at what point will people decide it is to high a price
Fittster said:
Many countries are parts of trading blocks, for example the US is a member of USMCA.
Can you detail which economically successful countries are not part of trade block?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_bloc
There's no K in bloc!Can you detail which economically successful countries are not part of trade block?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_bloc
citizensm1th said:
The UK wanted the freedom to make its own rules, that comes with a price.
The question is at what point will people decide it is to high a price
Quite.The question is at what point will people decide it is to high a price
The difficulty is some people take the "that comes with a price" part as the EU acting unreasonably whilst some simply take it as what it is which is that when you leave the club unless you have an arrangement in place you're just another person standing outside the club.
JeffreyD said:
crankedup said:
This is something that I struggle with, if I’m running a successful business selling shellfish to the export market and making a decent living. Seeing distinct threats to the business on the horizon, surely sit down and look at the possible scenarios and how to circumnavigate around each possible scenario. Sitting back and doing nothing seems crazy, and yet that is what has happened here it seems.
The Government announced the availability of grant aid to the industry for the purpose of modernising the fleet.
Under those circumstances why on earth sit back and do nothing. Just seems crazy to me.
Any idea what the availability of investment capital for the shellfish industry is?The Government announced the availability of grant aid to the industry for the purpose of modernising the fleet.
Under those circumstances why on earth sit back and do nothing. Just seems crazy to me.
If it's anything like the ones I know about it's very concentrated and not necessarily easy to get your hands on.
bhstewie said:
hstewie said:citizensm1th said:
The UK wanted the freedom to make its own rules, that comes with a price.
The question is at what point will people decide it is to high a price
Quite.The question is at what point will people decide it is to high a price
The glaring omission in the above, as usual, is that it looks at price (cost) with no mention of benefit - which by the very nature of new business start-ups and new jobs will take longer to appear than the costs of teething troubles.
This sin of omission catches out remainers on a regular basis, clearly a remainer message must be delivered on-message
turbobloke said:
Rejoining? Dream ON.
The glaring omission in the above, as usual, is price (cost) with no mention of benefit - which by the very nature of new business start-ups and new jobs will take longer to appear than the costs of teething troubles.
This sin of omission catches out remainers on a regular basis, clearly a remainer message must be delivered on-message
No the first point.The glaring omission in the above, as usual, is price (cost) with no mention of benefit - which by the very nature of new business start-ups and new jobs will take longer to appear than the costs of teething troubles.
This sin of omission catches out remainers on a regular basis, clearly a remainer message must be delivered on-message
I don't see re-joining even being an option (outside the lib dems and greens maybe) for years.
crankedup said:
JeffreyD said:
crankedup said:
This is something that I struggle with, if I’m running a successful business selling shellfish to the export market and making a decent living. Seeing distinct threats to the business on the horizon, surely sit down and look at the possible scenarios and how to circumnavigate around each possible scenario. Sitting back and doing nothing seems crazy, and yet that is what has happened here it seems.
The Government announced the availability of grant aid to the industry for the purpose of modernising the fleet.
Under those circumstances why on earth sit back and do nothing. Just seems crazy to me.
Any idea what the availability of investment capital for the shellfish industry is?The Government announced the availability of grant aid to the industry for the purpose of modernising the fleet.
Under those circumstances why on earth sit back and do nothing. Just seems crazy to me.
If it's anything like the ones I know about it's very concentrated and not necessarily easy to get your hands on.
"A number of people are suggesting myself and others in the shellfish industry have been lazy, stupid (or both) for not being ‘prepared’ for the carnage Brexit has caused on the shellfish export industry. If we predicted this, why weren’t we ready?
Many small shellfish businesses don’t have the money needed to build a depuration plant. £100k cost for a small plant wouldn’t provide the depuration capacity some companies need. Add a zero to their costs to reach capacity levels. If they did have the investment...
They probably don’t have the land to build on. Ideally you need your plant close to where you harvest your shellfish. Where I live the land is under marine protection making it a mountain to climb if you wanted to build on it. If you do have the money and land...
Your shellfish might be at risk of dying after depuration and long delays at port. Shellfish can struggle with the stress of being depurated so are relaid, unpurified, in A grade waters in the EU so they can be sold straight out of the sea. They are depurated too but...
We come back in a circle; you need large capacity to ensure the shellfish isn’t stressed thus reducing shellfish mortality. If you have a purification plant and shellfish which is happy during depuration then surely you’re on to a winning formula?
We have a depuration plant next to the water where our oysters grow. Our oysters are purified in temperature controlled conditions so they are happy and have a long shelf life. What’s the problem then?
The Brexit deal is almost the same as a no deal; I can’t export our product because the costs associated with the paperwork and delays has pushed our prices up so we are no longer competitive with our EU oyster neighbours (Ireland, France, Denmark)
We have sold 0 oysters to Europe in 2021 because our Govt failed to sort the procedures involved with unpurified shellfish and the paperwork needed for purified means we are now too expensive. If we kept our prices the same we would make huge losses
The ‘oven ready deal’ which would make us a ‘global Britain’ has shrunk our market options and made the UK inward looking. I was prepared and have adapted the business as much as I can. No preparation was possible for Govt incompetence and negligence though.
https://twitter.com/HawardTom/status/1366084569955...
Fittster said:
Can you freely import shell fish from class B waters into the UK or are we equally as protective?
Imports to UK are based on health certificate requirements and are only allowed from approved countries, there doesn't appear to be different standards applied internally or externally. https://www.food.gov.uk/business-guidance/importin...bhstewie said:
hstewie said:turbobloke said:
Rejoining? Dream ON.
The glaring omission in the above, as usual, is price (cost) with no mention of benefit - which by the very nature of new business start-ups and new jobs will take longer to appear than the costs of teething troubles.
This sin of omission catches out remainers on a regular basis, clearly a remainer message must be delivered on-message
No the first point.The glaring omission in the above, as usual, is price (cost) with no mention of benefit - which by the very nature of new business start-ups and new jobs will take longer to appear than the costs of teething troubles.
This sin of omission catches out remainers on a regular basis, clearly a remainer message must be delivered on-message
I don't see re-joining even being an option (outside the lib dems and greens maybe) for years.
This government will not be around for ever and our relationship with Europe is not in stasis
jsf said:
Fittster said:
Can you freely import shell fish from class B waters into the UK or are we equally as protective?
Imports to UK are based on health certificate requirements and are only allowed from approved countries, there doesn't appear to be different standards applied internally or externally. https://www.food.gov.uk/business-guidance/importin...Regarding investment, that's business. Brexit was going to mean changes. The whole range of a potential deal ranged from WTO to BRINO.
It was always up to businesses to look a the potential issues and put contingency plans in place. It was up to the government to assist with planning and information (where available). Ireland managed to do this. Here in the USA, we made changes to logistics in 2018, as a contingency plan for brexit. Some parts of Brexit may have serious implications for our UK operations, and we'll have to deal with that.
It's not pettiness. The UK chose to leave. That was always going to mean becoming a 3rd country. Not including various means in the agreement to "smooth" areas of friction in relation to that change are on the negotiating parties. The negotiation was a choice, not some bureaucratic invasion! (images of hostile invaders, waving regulations and spitting red ink abound!)
M.
RE: govt incompetence in not sorting out seafood industry post Brexit procedures...I refer you to my previous post the other week on the monumental uselessness of DEFRA and its historical tendrils. The mob dealing with the fishing industry within the UK govt have ALWAYS been incompetent. To be honest Im actually shocked they were offering any kind of grants anyway, its invariably nothing more than offering to provide the buttplug FoC before it was rammed up your jacksie!
There is a reason I loathe the civil service! Well ok, there are many reasons - but their long standing shafting of the fishing industry is high on that list!
There is a reason I loathe the civil service! Well ok, there are many reasons - but their long standing shafting of the fishing industry is high on that list!
bhstewie said:
hstewie said:crankedup said:
This is something that I struggle with, if I’m running a successful business selling shellfish to the export market and making a decent living. Seeing distinct threats to the business on the horizon, surely sit down and look at the possible scenarios and how to circumnavigate around each possible scenario. Sitting back and doing nothing seems crazy, and yet that is what has happened here it seems.
The Government announced the availability of grant aid to the industry for the purpose of modernising the fleet.
Under those circumstances why on earth sit back and do nothing. Just seems crazy to me.
How much money would you spend in a pandemic when lots of businesses are struggling and on their arses on things that you don't know whether you need or not "just in case" I wonder?The Government announced the availability of grant aid to the industry for the purpose of modernising the fleet.
Under those circumstances why on earth sit back and do nothing. Just seems crazy to me.
Would you want to wake up on Jan 1st to find that £100,000 (or whatever) investment simply wasn't needed?
I’ve said that if I were running a business that indicated some possible major problems on the horizon I would not have sat back doing nothing, as it appears in this business.
We all know it’s about risk v reward in business, I also advocate standing still is a recipe for a potential headache at some point.
It’s easy in hindsight of course but faced with what was possibly going to have a major impact upon my business I would have considered investment to cover my bases. A investment into the cleaning equipment would have enabled the business to continue a supply to customers. The investment could have been a halfway house with, for example just 50% of required tanks. Could then add to that investment at a later date. TBH the whole scenario holds as many variations as a net full of shellfish. The only mistake made appears to be doing nothing.
If the tanks investment proved to be surplus to requirement he has at least increased to stock value of his business by adding value.
Having said that from the comfort of my chair I do have some sympathy for this and other businesses caught up in the trading changes into the EU. To have the added headache of dealing with covid on top of all that has to be a nightmare.
crankedup said:
We are talking about the shellfish industry, the business owner stated that up until Christmas 2020 he was doing very well. His business then came to a full stop owing to the fact that he couldn’t supply his uncleaned catch to his EU customer base.
I’ve said that if I were running a business that indicated some possible major problems on the horizon I would not have sat back doing nothing, as it appears in this business.
We all know it’s about risk v reward in business, I also advocate standing still is a recipe for a potential headache at some point.
It’s easy in hindsight of course but faced with what was possibly going to have a major impact upon my business I would have considered investment to cover my bases. A investment into the cleaning equipment would have enabled the business to continue a supply to customers. The investment could have been a halfway house with, for example just 50% of required tanks. Could then add to that investment at a later date. TBH the whole scenario holds as many variations as a net full of shellfish. The only mistake made appears to be doing nothing.
If the tanks investment proved to be surplus to requirement he has at least increased to stock value of his business by adding value.
Having said that from the comfort of my chair I do have some sympathy for this and other businesses caught up in the trading changes into the EU. To have the added headache of dealing with covid on top of all that has to be a nightmare.
Lots of words.I’ve said that if I were running a business that indicated some possible major problems on the horizon I would not have sat back doing nothing, as it appears in this business.
We all know it’s about risk v reward in business, I also advocate standing still is a recipe for a potential headache at some point.
It’s easy in hindsight of course but faced with what was possibly going to have a major impact upon my business I would have considered investment to cover my bases. A investment into the cleaning equipment would have enabled the business to continue a supply to customers. The investment could have been a halfway house with, for example just 50% of required tanks. Could then add to that investment at a later date. TBH the whole scenario holds as many variations as a net full of shellfish. The only mistake made appears to be doing nothing.
If the tanks investment proved to be surplus to requirement he has at least increased to stock value of his business by adding value.
Having said that from the comfort of my chair I do have some sympathy for this and other businesses caught up in the trading changes into the EU. To have the added headache of dealing with covid on top of all that has to be a nightmare.
Let's try again.
How much money would you have invested in something when you have absolutely no idea whether it is required or not?
bhstewie said:
hstewie said: This is the bit I really can't work out.
Even if there's a "well you used to be members we can trust you on this" agreement it still has to be defined somewhere as an agreement.
And that's before the other 3rd countries thing.
We chose to become a 3rd country with certain things agreed and that wasn't one of them.
That's kind of the point really.
Cakeism. The belief that the UK could have its cake and eat it and it's the EU at fault for blocking that. To be fair most brexiters on this thread aren't like that but political discourse is that vacuous.Even if there's a "well you used to be members we can trust you on this" agreement it still has to be defined somewhere as an agreement.
And that's before the other 3rd countries thing.
We chose to become a 3rd country with certain things agreed and that wasn't one of them.
That's kind of the point really.
Fittster said:
Murph7355 said:
The vast majority of countries in the world are not members of the EU.
Many countries are parts of trading blocks, for example the US is a member of USMCA.Can you detail which economically successful countries are not part of trade block?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_bloc
Fittster said:
crankedup said:
JeffreyD said:
crankedup said:
This is something that I struggle with, if I’m running a successful business selling shellfish to the export market and making a decent living. Seeing distinct threats to the business on the horizon, surely sit down and look at the possible scenarios and how to circumnavigate around each possible scenario. Sitting back and doing nothing seems crazy, and yet that is what has happened here it seems.
The Government announced the availability of grant aid to the industry for the purpose of modernising the fleet.
Under those circumstances why on earth sit back and do nothing. Just seems crazy to me.
Any idea what the availability of investment capital for the shellfish industry is?The Government announced the availability of grant aid to the industry for the purpose of modernising the fleet.
Under those circumstances why on earth sit back and do nothing. Just seems crazy to me.
If it's anything like the ones I know about it's very concentrated and not necessarily easy to get your hands on.
"A number of people are suggesting myself and others in the shellfish industry have been lazy, stupid (or both) for not being ‘prepared’ for the carnage Brexit has caused on the shellfish export industry. If we predicted this, why weren’t we ready?
Many small shellfish businesses don’t have the money needed to build a depuration plant. £100k cost for a small plant wouldn’t provide the depuration capacity some companies need. Add a zero to their costs to reach capacity levels. If they did have the investment...
They probably don’t have the land to build on. Ideally you need your plant close to where you harvest your shellfish. Where I live the land is under marine protection making it a mountain to climb if you wanted to build on it. If you do have the money and land...
Your shellfish might be at risk of dying after depuration and long delays at port. Shellfish can struggle with the stress of being depurated so are relaid, unpurified, in A grade waters in the EU so they can be sold straight out of the sea. They are depurated too but...
We come back in a circle; you need large capacity to ensure the shellfish isn’t stressed thus reducing shellfish mortality. If you have a purification plant and shellfish which is happy during depuration then surely you’re on to a winning formula?
We have a depuration plant next to the water where our oysters grow. Our oysters are purified in temperature controlled conditions so they are happy and have a long shelf life. What’s the problem then?
The Brexit deal is almost the same as a no deal; I can’t export our product because the costs associated with the paperwork and delays has pushed our prices up so we are no longer competitive with our EU oyster neighbours (Ireland, France, Denmark)
We have sold 0 oysters to Europe in 2021 because our Govt failed to sort the procedures involved with unpurified shellfish and the paperwork needed for purified means we are now too expensive. If we kept our prices the same we would make huge losses
The ‘oven ready deal’ which would make us a ‘global Britain’ has shrunk our market options and made the UK inward looking. I was prepared and have adapted the business as much as I can. No preparation was possible for Govt incompetence and negligence though.
https://twitter.com/HawardTom/status/1366084569955...
BTW thanks for posting it made interesting but sad reading.
crankedup said:
I would rather read from an industry wide perspective than one business fishermen. However I am sorry to say it does sound like this particular business has failed owing to political and legislative changes.
BTW thanks for posting it made interesting but sad reading.
Is the grant aid application process already up and running? Or is that something for the future?BTW thanks for posting it made interesting but sad reading.
Apologies if we've already had this one
Banks in Germany Tell Customers to Take Deposits Elsewhere
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/banks-in-germany-...
Banks in Germany Tell Customers to Take Deposits Elsewhere
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/banks-in-germany-...
WSJ said:
Interest rates have been negative in Europe for years. But it took the flood of savings unleashed in the pandemic for banks finally to charge depositors in earnest.
Germany’s biggest lenders, Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG , have told new customers since last year to pay a 0.5% annual rate to keep large sums of money with them. The banks say they can no longer absorb the negative interest rates the European Central Bank charges them. The more customer deposits banks have, the more they have to park with the central bank.
That is creating an unusual incentive, where banks that usually want deposits as an inexpensive form of financing, are essentially telling customers to go away. Banks are even providing new online tools to help customers take their deposits elsewhere.
Banks in Europe resisted passing negative rates on to customers when the ECB first introduced them in 2014, fearing backlash. Some did it only with corporate depositors, who were less likely to complain to local politicians. The banks resorted to other ways to pass on the costs of negative rates, charging higher fees, for instance.
The pandemic has changed the equation. Savings rates skyrocketed with consumers at home. And huge relief programs from the ECB have flooded banks with excess deposits. Banks also have used the economic dislocation of the pandemic to make operational changes they have long resisted.
Germany’s biggest lenders, Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG , have told new customers since last year to pay a 0.5% annual rate to keep large sums of money with them. The banks say they can no longer absorb the negative interest rates the European Central Bank charges them. The more customer deposits banks have, the more they have to park with the central bank.
That is creating an unusual incentive, where banks that usually want deposits as an inexpensive form of financing, are essentially telling customers to go away. Banks are even providing new online tools to help customers take their deposits elsewhere.
Banks in Europe resisted passing negative rates on to customers when the ECB first introduced them in 2014, fearing backlash. Some did it only with corporate depositors, who were less likely to complain to local politicians. The banks resorted to other ways to pass on the costs of negative rates, charging higher fees, for instance.
The pandemic has changed the equation. Savings rates skyrocketed with consumers at home. And huge relief programs from the ECB have flooded banks with excess deposits. Banks also have used the economic dislocation of the pandemic to make operational changes they have long resisted.
bhstewie said:
hstewie said: Lots of words.
Let's try again.
How much money would you have invested in something when you have absolutely no idea whether it is required or not?
'E 'oo dares wins, Rodders!"Let's try again.
How much money would you have invested in something when you have absolutely no idea whether it is required or not?
If you aren't comfortable with uncertainty and planning for contingencies, business is not for you. It may sound harsh, but that's the way it goes.
To put it another way:
-If your business is the export of shellfish, and something like Brexit is coming up, you better make contingency plans.
I'd be making damn sure I'd be finding out the impacts to my industry would be understood by government. I'd be making sure I knew what alternative markets would be available to me if certain other markets were cut off/impacted severely.
Or are you trying to tell me that the following was something that could not be reasonably considered possible:
-The EU would be as protectionist after Brexit as before
-The UK would be a 3rd country and subject to the same rules as all the other 3rd countries
Look at Ireland, right next door. Reduced exports to the UK, sourced non-UK suppliers for imports, and spent vast sums in increasing direct logistics routes to the continent. Huge information and support from the Irish government.
M.
bhstewie said:
hstewie said:crankedup said:
We are talking about the shellfish industry, the business owner stated that up until Christmas 2020 he was doing very well. His business then came to a full stop owing to the fact that he couldn’t supply his uncleaned catch to his EU customer base.
I’ve said that if I were running a business that indicated some possible major problems on the horizon I would not have sat back doing nothing, as it appears in this business.
We all know it’s about risk v reward in business, I also advocate standing still is a recipe for a potential headache at some point.
It’s easy in hindsight of course but faced with what was possibly going to have a major impact upon my business I would have considered investment to cover my bases. A investment into the cleaning equipment would have enabled the business to continue a supply to customers. The investment could have been a halfway house with, for example just 50% of required tanks. Could then add to that investment at a later date. TBH the whole scenario holds as many variations as a net full of shellfish. The only mistake made appears to be doing nothing.
If the tanks investment proved to be surplus to requirement he has at least increased to stock value of his business by adding value.
Having said that from the comfort of my chair I do have some sympathy for this and other businesses caught up in the trading changes into the EU. To have the added headache of dealing with covid on top of all that has to be a nightmare.
Lots of words.I’ve said that if I were running a business that indicated some possible major problems on the horizon I would not have sat back doing nothing, as it appears in this business.
We all know it’s about risk v reward in business, I also advocate standing still is a recipe for a potential headache at some point.
It’s easy in hindsight of course but faced with what was possibly going to have a major impact upon my business I would have considered investment to cover my bases. A investment into the cleaning equipment would have enabled the business to continue a supply to customers. The investment could have been a halfway house with, for example just 50% of required tanks. Could then add to that investment at a later date. TBH the whole scenario holds as many variations as a net full of shellfish. The only mistake made appears to be doing nothing.
If the tanks investment proved to be surplus to requirement he has at least increased to stock value of his business by adding value.
Having said that from the comfort of my chair I do have some sympathy for this and other businesses caught up in the trading changes into the EU. To have the added headache of dealing with covid on top of all that has to be a nightmare.
Let's try again.
How much money would you have invested in something when you have absolutely no idea whether it is required or not?
If I was running a business that required investment then obviously, I would be identifying areas for investment, calculating the cost, calculating risks v reward, working down investment strategy and time schedules based upon my overall capital expenditure requirement, working down my returns and profit along with a host of other factors including staffing and premises. Hopefully I would arrive
with an overall objective and costings and the percentage cost affordable to the business.In other words a business plan.
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