How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]
Discussion
kingston12 said:
To keep the property market ‘firing’ apparently.
I knew from the start of the first SD holiday that it would be extended, but I’m still surprised it wasn’t announced earlier.
I don’t think end of June is long enough though. He’ll dress it up as allowing existing transactions to complete, but if people are that worried about saving £15k it will only create another cliff-edge then.
The only upside is that it’s not really a big enough relief for the economy to become addicted to and not be able to survive without it like Help to Buy and the furlough scheme.
Indeed, another reason it was completely stupid. Not only has London still ended up dropping -1.1% MoM in the last land reg (albeit clearly in contrast to most of the rest of the UK) but all this would do assuming it actually happens is move the artificially created cliff edge out. Plenty of houses are still coming on in my search area of London including previous SSTC, Rishi has created a bit of a perfect storm coinciding with when Furlough ends.I knew from the start of the first SD holiday that it would be extended, but I’m still surprised it wasn’t announced earlier.
I don’t think end of June is long enough though. He’ll dress it up as allowing existing transactions to complete, but if people are that worried about saving £15k it will only create another cliff-edge then.
The only upside is that it’s not really a big enough relief for the economy to become addicted to and not be able to survive without it like Help to Buy and the furlough scheme.
V6Alfisti said:
Indeed, another reason it was completely stupid. Not only has London still ended up dropping -1.1% MoM in the last land reg (albeit clearly in contrast to most of the rest of the UK) but all this would do assuming it actually happens is move the artificially created cliff edge out. Plenty of houses are still coming on in my search area of London including previous SSTC, Rishi has created a bit of a perfect storm coinciding with when Furlough ends.
I agree, but I still think he'll try to stave it off a bit further. He's using the drip, drip, drip approach with furlough (and now SD) by extending it for three months at a time. This is understandable because he doesn't want to introduce it as the new normal, but I think some type of furlough scheme is going to be required for much longer unless they are prepared for 10%+ unemployment (even after the usual manipulation of figures).
The other school of thought is the Stamp Duty is such small beer in relation to the debt that we are building up elsewhere that he'll never bring it back. It is a bit of a nonsensical tax anyway, but when you see some of the lengths people have gone to avoid paying £15k, you can understand why he might not want it to come back at all.
BurtonLazars said:
vonuber said:
So assuming say 10% deposit on a million pounds, you'd need to have an income of £180k to be able to afford a mortgage at 5x?
Those who can afford it will have built up equity in a previous house, and/or there will be two salaries.Times says, Rishi will extend stamp duty holiday
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stamp-duty-holi...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stamp-duty-holi...
kingston12 said:
I agree, but I still think he'll try to stave it off a bit further. He's using the drip, drip, drip approach with furlough (and now SD) by extending it for three months at a time.
This is understandable because he doesn't want to introduce it as the new normal, but I think some type of furlough scheme is going to be required for much longer unless they are prepared for 10%+ unemployment (even after the usual manipulation of figures).
The other school of thought is the Stamp Duty is such small beer in relation to the debt that we are building up elsewhere that he'll never bring it back. It is a bit of a nonsensical tax anyway, but when you see some of the lengths people have gone to avoid paying £15k, you can understand why he might not want it to come back at all.
It will be interesting to see, but there were lots of internal reports (in an equally speculative way) that Rishi really didn't want/wasnt going to extend the stamp duty. I suspect the reason he has left it so late (assuming that he actually does annouce this), is because his primary motivation will be allowing existing deals in action to be finished off rather than tell the market in Dec/Jan and then potentially spur another new cycle of demand. Clearly some deals will still fall through (and the market will ask for another extension) and other 'fresh' deals will get closed.This is understandable because he doesn't want to introduce it as the new normal, but I think some type of furlough scheme is going to be required for much longer unless they are prepared for 10%+ unemployment (even after the usual manipulation of figures).
The other school of thought is the Stamp Duty is such small beer in relation to the debt that we are building up elsewhere that he'll never bring it back. It is a bit of a nonsensical tax anyway, but when you see some of the lengths people have gone to avoid paying £15k, you can understand why he might not want it to come back at all.
re: Furlough, we will just need to see but once the doors are open fully in June I personally think they will say "it's in your hands now" as the level of debt we have accumulated is just eye watering.
I am slightly worried that when I do buy I will get stuck with a chunky stamp duty bill and then get taxed again once/if they then abolish stamp and introduce a seperate property tax (hopefully if you recently paid stamp, that wont apply) but who actually knows.
Personally looking in the SE London @ +£1m. the market here has moved marginally more quickly over the past few months (whilst the sub £950k and particularly sub £700k housing more so) but in the bracket I am looking at, I am just seeing SSTC property come back on, quite a few went SSTC back in August/September and still seemingly haven't completed. Other fresh stock coming on and certainly not at 10% plus, everything appears to be priced at about the same as it was a year ago.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 24th February 11:42
V6Alfisti said:
kingston12 said:
I agree, but I still think he'll try to stave it off a bit further. He's using the drip, drip, drip approach with furlough (and now SD) by extending it for three months at a time.
This is understandable because he doesn't want to introduce it as the new normal, but I think some type of furlough scheme is going to be required for much longer unless they are prepared for 10%+ unemployment (even after the usual manipulation of figures).
The other school of thought is the Stamp Duty is such small beer in relation to the debt that we are building up elsewhere that he'll never bring it back. It is a bit of a nonsensical tax anyway, but when you see some of the lengths people have gone to avoid paying £15k, you can understand why he might not want it to come back at all.
It will be interesting to see, but there were lots of inner reports that Rishi really didn't want to extend the stamp duty. I suspect the reason he has left it so late (assuming that he actually does annouce this), is because his primary motivation will be allowing existing deals in action to be finished off rather than tell the market in Dec/Jan and then potentially spur another new cycle of demand. This is understandable because he doesn't want to introduce it as the new normal, but I think some type of furlough scheme is going to be required for much longer unless they are prepared for 10%+ unemployment (even after the usual manipulation of figures).
The other school of thought is the Stamp Duty is such small beer in relation to the debt that we are building up elsewhere that he'll never bring it back. It is a bit of a nonsensical tax anyway, but when you see some of the lengths people have gone to avoid paying £15k, you can understand why he might not want it to come back at all.
re: Furlough, we will just need to see but once the doors are open fully in June I personally think they will say "it's in your hands now".
ooid said:
Times says, Rishi will extend stamp duty holiday
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stamp-duty-holi...
Bloody hell, I was hoping some properties would fall through and I could jump in at the start of April.https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stamp-duty-holi...
Another 3 months of waiting then to see what happens, great.
okgo said:
What was the reason you didn't want to make use of the holiday yourself?
First Time Buyer mate.I suspected it would happen tbf, it's just to allow all those who are in the process now time to complete, but they'll warn anyone looking to start the process now it won't be extended again (I imagine anyway).
As a FTB I’ll be going with whatever comes up that’s right and affordable for me now.
I think there is a risk the bulk of housing sales will have happened soon and there’ll be very little new to the market in the latter half of this year and into next.
Almost feels a bit like beggars can’t be choosers when it comes to finding a house as a FTB.
I think there is a risk the bulk of housing sales will have happened soon and there’ll be very little new to the market in the latter half of this year and into next.
Almost feels a bit like beggars can’t be choosers when it comes to finding a house as a FTB.
number2 said:
Got a link to some pics of those? Just being nosey!
knock yourself out, £5m gets you 1500sqft ish. www.regentscrescent.com
Should this thread be renamed "will house prices fall?"
Of course if enough people think they will fall they stop rising, and usually start falling.
My view is prices will stagnate for quite a while. Flat prices in some areas have fallen already.
I think we're in for a period similar to 2009-2011 on house prices.
Of course if enough people think they will fall they stop rising, and usually start falling.
My view is prices will stagnate for quite a while. Flat prices in some areas have fallen already.
I think we're in for a period similar to 2009-2011 on house prices.
Ntv said:
Should this thread be renamed "will house prices fall?"
Of course if enough people think they will fall they stop rising, and usually start falling.
My view is prices will stagnate for quite a while. Flat prices in some areas have fallen already.
I think we're in for a period similar to 2009-2011 on house prices.
That would suit me nicely, even if they only stagnated for a 12 months or so.Of course if enough people think they will fall they stop rising, and usually start falling.
My view is prices will stagnate for quite a while. Flat prices in some areas have fallen already.
I think we're in for a period similar to 2009-2011 on house prices.
z4RRSchris said:
number2 said:
Got a link to some pics of those? Just being nosey!
knock yourself out, £5m gets you 1500sqft ish. www.regentscrescent.com
Is it mainly arabs buying them given the location?
z4RRSchris said:
number2 said:
Got a link to some pics of those? Just being nosey!
knock yourself out, £5m gets you 1500sqft ish. www.regentscrescent.com
Is the road outside residents only or can anyone meander through? I'm sure I walked past this place last year and noted there was a gatehouse but don't think it's in use? Just struck me that for that much money I'd expect it all to be gated off from the riff raff.
The road is one of the main roads in London, top of Portland Place, its not private. There is a mews out the back which leads into the development where there is underground parking and a huge car stacker.
Arabs don't tend to buy new build in London, so no. There is only 2 Arab buyers.
Arabs don't tend to buy new build in London, so no. There is only 2 Arab buyers.
Blue Oval84 said:
Looks nice, to say the least.
Is the road outside residents only or can anyone meander through? I'm sure I walked past this place last year and noted there was a gatehouse but don't think it's in use? Just struck me that for that much money I'd expect it all to be gated off from the riff raff.
I can't think of many places like this in Central London, Kensington Palace Gardens perhaps, but 5m there might buy you a parking space.Is the road outside residents only or can anyone meander through? I'm sure I walked past this place last year and noted there was a gatehouse but don't think it's in use? Just struck me that for that much money I'd expect it all to be gated off from the riff raff.
They've been doing these for ages, I don't think it's a great location personally. Euston road is properly loud, and feet away. I'd think spending the same money on a flat round the edges of the park would be a better shout.
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