How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]
Discussion
Joey Deacon said:
V6Alfisti said:
Land Registry out again today to help give us the overall reality vs asking prices.
Usual caveat around averages and clearly some area will be up in there and others down.
This months price change in the UK is 0% (or +0.2% for England)
.......
Nationwide results out today and the HousePriceCrash cult are not happy.Usual caveat around averages and clearly some area will be up in there and others down.
This months price change in the UK is 0% (or +0.2% for England)
.......
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...
Up 2.1% this month. I predicted prices would rise 10% this year, so only another 7.9% to go.
Interesting difference in the overall numbers. I guess the LR figures are pretty out of date as they're based on prices agreed many months ago.
Joey Deacon said:
Nationwide results out today and the HousePriceCrash cult are not happy.
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...
Up 2.1% this month. I predicted prices would rise 10% this year, so only another 7.9% to go.
Another chunky monthly rise, they're saying that's the largest monthly rise since 2004 in fact. I'm not surprised, it seems like the official figures are steadily catching up with the reality of what some of us have been seeing out there annecdotally. https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...
Up 2.1% this month. I predicted prices would rise 10% this year, so only another 7.9% to go.
NerveAgent said:
Hearing about the ultra competitive market for such luxuries as your own front door for the best part of half a million pretty much summarises the state of London right now doesn’t it?
It would be 700 in London 
Joking aside, no not really. It’s been the same for years. And as said, Surbiton still a fair bit more reasonable than lots of London.
okgo said:
NerveAgent said:
Hearing about the ultra competitive market for such luxuries as your own front door for the best part of half a million pretty much summarises the state of London right now doesn’t it?
It would be 700 in London Joking aside, no not really. It’s been the same for years. And as said, Surbiton still a fair bit more reasonable than lots of London.
PopsandBangs said:
okgo said:
NerveAgent said:
Hearing about the ultra competitive market for such luxuries as your own front door for the best part of half a million pretty much summarises the state of London right now doesn’t it?
It would be 700 in London Joking aside, no not really. It’s been the same for years. And as said, Surbiton still a fair bit more reasonable than lots of London.
PopsandBangs said:
okgo said:
NerveAgent said:
Hearing about the ultra competitive market for such luxuries as your own front door for the best part of half a million pretty much summarises the state of London right now doesn’t it?
It would be 700 in London Joking aside, no not really. It’s been the same for years. And as said, Surbiton still a fair bit more reasonable than lots of London.
Joey Deacon said:
Yes, you will get more for your money the closer you get to Tolworth but it is definitely not Surbiton. As always you are paying for the location
Yeh. It’s much more family orientated as the school is good and there’s good housing stock unlike most of surbiton. But it is cheaper, but these days not hugely so. A nice house is still 800 or so as a mate just sold on that road for 825. I had a good sized 1 bed maisonette there with a garden. Bought for 240k in 2013 sold for 315 or so a few years later. It is a bit of a walk to the station but many do it, I always cycled to work so didn’t care but there’s buses at either end of the road going that way. The general rule of thumb with the area is don’t go beyond Douglas road and stay off Thornhill. Ellterton, cottrerill and all those that side of Douglas (inc Douglas) are fine. Gets a bit more council the other way.
MX-6 said:
Joey Deacon said:
Nationwide results out today and the HousePriceCrash cult are not happy.
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...
Up 2.1% this month. I predicted prices would rise 10% this year, so only another 7.9% to go.
Another chunky monthly rise, they're saying that's the largest monthly rise since 2004 in fact. I'm not surprised, it seems like the official figures are steadily catching up with the reality of what some of us have been seeing out there annecdotally. https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...
Up 2.1% this month. I predicted prices would rise 10% this year, so only another 7.9% to go.
424k for a new build terrace in Leicester, probably one of the most overpriced houses I've ever seen.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106053614#/
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106053614#/
Leicester Loyal said:
424k for a new build terrace in Leicester, probably one of the most overpriced houses I've ever seen.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106053614#/
That's not even in Leicester either. The other side of the M1 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106053614#/
Leicester Loyal said:
424k for a new build terrace in Leicester, probably one of the most overpriced houses I've ever seen.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106053614#/
Am pretty sure that's a typo, a similar property in WoodHouse Eaves wouldn't command that price, let alone one next to the M1 sharing a borough boarder with one of the highest crime rates in the county.https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106053614#/
gangzoom said:
Am pretty sure that's a typo, a similar property in WoodHouse Eaves wouldn't command that price, let alone one next to the M1 sharing a borough boarder with one of the highest crime rates in the county.
But it says 'safe neighbourhood' is a key feature?!Also great floorplan, as long as you're only interested in the second floor!
fido said:
Welcome to the layer cake .. I'm trying to find a place wtih a double-garage that hasn't been converted to a frikin' kitchen or reception.
They’re like hens teeth. I still have a garage in North London - it’s full of tools rather than a car, but I could get a car in if I evicted the saw bench. A mate who is an architect is constantly amazed by it “I haven’t seen a proper garage for ages...”Anyone else in this situation?
We accepted an offer on our property last summer, unfortunately the house we were buying and 2 subsequent properties we tried to buy fell though. Nothing has come to the market in the following 9 months, we’ve kept the buyer informed and encouraged them to look elsewhere during that time.
Now one of the properties that fell through that we’d love to buy is back on the market with a c7% increase in asking price so we need to have some conversations about a correction in the sale value of ours.
We accepted an offer on our property last summer, unfortunately the house we were buying and 2 subsequent properties we tried to buy fell though. Nothing has come to the market in the following 9 months, we’ve kept the buyer informed and encouraged them to look elsewhere during that time.
Now one of the properties that fell through that we’d love to buy is back on the market with a c7% increase in asking price so we need to have some conversations about a correction in the sale value of ours.
Sheepshanks said:
.
Interesting difference in the overall numbers. I guess the LR figures are pretty out of date as they're based on prices agreed many months ago.
This is often raised and rightly so.Interesting difference in the overall numbers. I guess the LR figures are pretty out of date as they're based on prices agreed many months ago.
Land Registry is normally a month behind but is the most accurate as it is sold/completed houses e.g the last report on 21st April seems to have included completed sales up to the 26th March (from what I can see, unless anyone knows better)
Rightmove is more up to date but only reflects asking prices and not sold
Halifax and Nationwide is only a portion of the market and can vary quite a lot because they don't only show completed transactions but also ones that have also been through survey but not completed. In excludes the cash market plus they have their own methodology/impact from promotions or groupings that they may be targeting. The rough trend is generally right though.
Before the extension my expectation was that it would show average UK growth until probably this April/May LR report (because it's a month behind) and then flatten/fall off a bit.
The reality is that is flattened/fell off a bit a couple of months before i.e to me it is "odd" that the April report which had the March transactions in it, weren't higher due to the stamp duty incentive, but what is quite clear is that the closer it got to the stamp duty cliff the quicker the values unwound.
Hence my expectation is that after the last couple of months "lull" in Land Registry, it will pick up for a couple more months as part of stamp duty part 2 before falling back again. So no surprise at all really.
However from the last LR you will see there are much stronger areas bringing up the overall market, so those might roll on in a positive fashion for a bit longer due to the desire of people to still move regardless of stamp.
In terms of the area I am looking at, lots more stock was coming on last week (I had 9 in one day - which was a new record) and having looked at the last 3 weeks of saved properties of interest only 2 have gone SSTC and the other 12 or so are still on the market. (This isn't the full market, just my saved properties in my search bracket). Even the sub £750-800k market has cooled but not to the same level. Although what is evident, the houses that are immaculate/perfect/oven ready, those are the ones that do move.
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