How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]
Discussion
NickCQ said:
The feeling I am getting in my office is that people would like to come back at least 3/4 days a week, which was roughly average pre-COVID taking into account international travel. Junior staff seem to want 4/5 days (vs 6/7 pre-COVID 
).
I suspect that the exodus from London will not be as large as some predicted.
I suspect a large number of people might suddenly feel the need to go to work when there is the opp to go to a pub/resto INDOORS next week ).I suspect that the exodus from London will not be as large as some predicted.
my take on things from friends/associates/friends of friends is that the people that moved out of london were the self employed/contractor type people all of whom had the freedom to take a break from work/job hop, and were probably more in control of how and where they do their work than your average london office drone. they were probably more happy to take a risk.
the office drones dont have as much control over their destiny and if you work somewhere where there is a lot of facetime expected then I doubt there will be all that much flex. that said, I work in central government and there doesnt seem to be all that much of a rush to get people back to work. probably because a large number of our workforce are unionised and an alarmingly large number also have health conditions covered by the equality act. when you combine that with an awful cheek by jowl open plan office environment and not enough lifts I think that attendance at work in the next year will be optional. I've had a bet with a colleague to see if I can make it 2 years not going into the office! (I was last in the first week of March 2020).
the office drones dont have as much control over their destiny and if you work somewhere where there is a lot of facetime expected then I doubt there will be all that much flex. that said, I work in central government and there doesnt seem to be all that much of a rush to get people back to work. probably because a large number of our workforce are unionised and an alarmingly large number also have health conditions covered by the equality act. when you combine that with an awful cheek by jowl open plan office environment and not enough lifts I think that attendance at work in the next year will be optional. I've had a bet with a colleague to see if I can make it 2 years not going into the office! (I was last in the first week of March 2020).
princeperch said:
my take on things from friends/associates/friends of friends is that the people that moved out of london were the self employed/contractor type people all of whom had the freedom to take a break from work/job hop, and were probably more in control of how and where they do their work than your average london office drone. they were probably more happy to take a risk.
the office drones dont have as much control over their destiny and if you work somewhere where there is a lot of facetime expected then I doubt there will be all that much flex. that said, I work in central government and there doesnt seem to be all that much of a rush to get people back to work. probably because a large number of our workforce are unionised and an alarmingly large number also have health conditions covered by the equality act. when you combine that with an awful cheek by jowl open plan office environment and not enough lifts I think that attendance at work in the next year will be optional. I've had a bet with a colleague to see if I can make it 2 years not going into the office! (I was last in the first week of March 2020).
LOLthe office drones dont have as much control over their destiny and if you work somewhere where there is a lot of facetime expected then I doubt there will be all that much flex. that said, I work in central government and there doesnt seem to be all that much of a rush to get people back to work. probably because a large number of our workforce are unionised and an alarmingly large number also have health conditions covered by the equality act. when you combine that with an awful cheek by jowl open plan office environment and not enough lifts I think that attendance at work in the next year will be optional. I've had a bet with a colleague to see if I can make it 2 years not going into the office! (I was last in the first week of March 2020).
Ntv said:
The London figure hides a bifurcation between those properties with decent outdoor space, and those without.
I expect London will surge more in late summer/autumn as working in the office 2 days a week becomes more common (e.g. commuting from Devon becomes less appealing)
Indeed, but I wonder how many have moved to places like Devon in reality, rather than just out into the commuter belt where 2+ days a week commuting will remain relatively easy.I expect London will surge more in late summer/autumn as working in the office 2 days a week becomes more common (e.g. commuting from Devon becomes less appealing)
I wonder whether there will be some sort of mini extension (not that there at all needs to be after the whole mess of the last year!) of the Stamp Duty holiday, for those already in process and with solicitors working on it. One that will not apply to anyone who has not passed their purchase to solicitors, or who have not had an offer formally accepted?
I know that the March-June extension was largely for that purpose anyway, but there must be even more buyers now than then, delayed and stuck between offer and completion due to the rush caused by the incentive in the first place. I've just had an offer accepted (in Surbiton at last - wahey
) and i'm hearing 6 weeks + for searches alone?!!
How many of those will have crossed their fingers to make it and have rushed/decided to act as the break has brought it within their reach, but can't actually afford the duty, and will pull out if it's looking like it wont happen? I reckon many things will fall through if not!!
I'm ok personally just about but i'd rather put the £10k towards a Cayman to be honest.
I know that the March-June extension was largely for that purpose anyway, but there must be even more buyers now than then, delayed and stuck between offer and completion due to the rush caused by the incentive in the first place. I've just had an offer accepted (in Surbiton at last - wahey
) and i'm hearing 6 weeks + for searches alone?!!How many of those will have crossed their fingers to make it and have rushed/decided to act as the break has brought it within their reach, but can't actually afford the duty, and will pull out if it's looking like it wont happen? I reckon many things will fall through if not!!
I'm ok personally just about but i'd rather put the £10k towards a Cayman to be honest.
Someone mentioned open plan offices. Can we move to lots of individual offices with doors with people's names on. ? They can be 5x4 foot and barely big enough but as someone that suffers from the noises other make, I'd quite like a darkened room of my own to work in. A little like working from home really.
PopsandBangs said:
I wonder whether there will be some sort of mini extension (not that there at all needs to be after the whole mess of the last year!) of the Stamp Duty holiday, for those already in process and with solicitors working on it.
The only group that I would have any sympathy for is those that went sale agreed by about mid-Feb (i.e. 6 weeks before the original deadline) and for whatever reason still haven't managed to complete. I suspect that group is absolutely miniscule.An extension therefore seems unlikely but then I have consistently underestimated this government's desire to pump the housing market. That said, if there is a more comprehensive reform of SDLT in the works (do they still do an Autumn Statement), maybe they extend the current holiday to bridge to that?
PopsandBangs said:
I wonder whether there will be some sort of mini extension (not that there at all needs to be after the whole mess of the last year!) of the Stamp Duty holiday, for those already in process and with solicitors working on it. One that will not apply to anyone who has not passed their purchase to solicitors, or who have not had an offer formally accepted?
I know that the March-June extension was largely for that purpose anyway, but there must be even more buyers now than then, delayed and stuck between offer and completion due to the rush caused by the incentive in the first place. I've just had an offer accepted (in Surbiton at last - wahey ) and i'm hearing 6 weeks + for searches alone?!!
How many of those will have crossed their fingers to make it and have rushed/decided to act as the break has brought it within their reach, but can't actually afford the duty, and will pull out if it's looking like it wont happen? I reckon many things will fall through if not!!
I'm ok personally just about but i'd rather put the £10k towards a Cayman to be honest.
I was originally convinced that the SD holiday would be extended several times and then made permanent, but the market has really grown legs this time. It would probably make sense to save the incentive for the next time the market needs an artificial boost, but who really knows anymore?I know that the March-June extension was largely for that purpose anyway, but there must be even more buyers now than then, delayed and stuck between offer and completion due to the rush caused by the incentive in the first place. I've just had an offer accepted (in Surbiton at last - wahey
) and i'm hearing 6 weeks + for searches alone?!!How many of those will have crossed their fingers to make it and have rushed/decided to act as the break has brought it within their reach, but can't actually afford the duty, and will pull out if it's looking like it wont happen? I reckon many things will fall through if not!!
I'm ok personally just about but i'd rather put the £10k towards a Cayman to be honest.
Congratulations on getting to offer stage, I hope the rest of the process goes smoothly and as quickly as possible under the current circumstances.
PopsandBangs said:
I know that the March-June extension was largely for that purpose anyway, but there must be even more buyers now than then, delayed and stuck between offer and completion due to the rush caused by the incentive in the first place. I've just had an offer accepted (in Surbiton at last - wahey ) and i'm hearing 6 weeks + for searches alone?!!
SDLT should be overhauled completely. It's a legacy of the Brown largesse - punishing (main residence) homeowners for moving because of the huge property inflation in recent years isn't good for anyone. It limits mobility and employment prospects. ) and i'm hearing 6 weeks + for searches alone?!!fido said:
SDLT should be overhauled completely. It's a legacy of the Brown largesse - punishing (main residence) homeowners for moving because of the huge property inflation in recent years isn't good for anyone. It limits mobility and employment prospects.
It simply isn't an issue for the vast majority of the UK. It's just a tax on tax on those who already paid the most tax. Ridiculous. And yes, it's kept loft and basement firms in business...!okgo said:
It's just a tax on tax on those who already paid the most tax.
Maybe. It's a blunt instrument but it does capture some of the untaxed gains in the housing market too (principal residence appreciation). I can't see much support for CGT on main residences or annual ad valorem property taxes.The second property surcharge has also taken some capital & leverage out of the BTL market and under-pressure second home spots, which is probably net net a good thing.
Ntv said:
The London figure hides a bifurcation between those properties with decent outdoor space, and those without.
I expect London will surge more in late summer/autumn as working in the office 2 days a week becomes more common (e.g. commuting from Devon becomes less appealing)
I think the outdoor space requirement can be extended beyond the property. Plenty of demand for trad hot spots, Hampstead, Chiswick, Dulwich. Not sure how confident I'd be about East City/ Docklands etc. Less reason to be there than for a long time.I expect London will surge more in late summer/autumn as working in the office 2 days a week becomes more common (e.g. commuting from Devon becomes less appealing)
This is a sign of PEAK to me. This style of ad (and price!) is just what it was like in the glory days where you'd open the door to 30 people and see who has the most money at the end of it.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95097623#/
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95097623#/
okgo said:
This is a sign of PEAK to me. This style of ad (and price!) is just what it was like in the glory days where you'd open the door to 30 people and see who has the most money at the end of it.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95097623#/
I'm not sure I see the issue with that one? Well presented, extended, on one of the area's popular roads.https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95097623#/
£1 million is not offensive for a 1,500 sqft house (i.e. 2x the national average) with a 30 ft rear garden. Around me (W6) that would be offered for at least £1.5 million.
okgo said:
This is a sign of PEAK to me. This style of ad (and price!) is just what it was like in the glory days where you'd open the door to 30 people and see who has the most money at the end of it.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95097623#/
It does look expensive for that type of property but they've certainly maxed out the space and it does look very well presented. I could see it ticking all the boxes for someone, it'll probably fly off the shelf in the current market climate.https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95097623#/
NickCQ said:
I'm not sure I see the issue with that one? Well presented, extended, on one of the area's popular roads.
£1 million is not offensive for a 1,500 sqft house (i.e. 2x the national average) with a 30 ft rear garden. Around me (W6) that would be offered for at least £1.5 million.
They are the bellwether for market conditions IMO As recently as this winter gone there were loads sitting on the market rotting away. It seems they're back to just opening the door and it flying off the shelf at a record price for one of those cottages (I'd have to check that, but I don't recall ever seeing one over a million there).£1 million is not offensive for a 1,500 sqft house (i.e. 2x the national average) with a 30 ft rear garden. Around me (W6) that would be offered for at least £1.5 million.
ETA bought in 2010 for 450k...
okgo said:
This is a sign of PEAK to me. This style of ad (and price!) is just what it was like in the glory days where you'd open the door to 30 people and see who has the most money at the end of it.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95097623#/
I can't find and evidence of the advert now, but I'm sure that one came on in Summer 2020 at £950k and went under offer fairly quickly.https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95097623#/
The increase in asking price of just over 10% is consistent with the rises being reported, but of course it also shows that the sale presumably recently fell through at the lower figure.
Several houses have recently gone under offer in the road for not much less and they all needed some work to bring up to the condition and/or size as this one, so I don't think they'll have any trouble selling it.
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