How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]
Discussion
Six Potter said:
It does look expensive for that type of property but they've certainly maxed out the space and it does look very well presented. I could see it ticking all the boxes for someone, it'll probably fly off the shelf in the current market climate.
It's more the exact location than the house type that is driving the price. It's very attractive for Londoners that want to move out to get more space, but don't want constant reminders that they are now out in the 'burbs! It's only a few minutes walk from the railway station and has a road with some quite good bars are restaurants at one end and the river at the other. It's also an area which remains quite dominated by Victorian archtecture, albeit with a fair bit of ugly 60s-70s infill. It's quite different to the rows of 1930's semis that most people associate with suburbia.
You could buy a similar house in a less sought-after part of the same postcode for not much more than half of this amount because the people with money aren't as interested in living there.
dmahon said:
100k tax free in less than a year if achieved. Nice work if you can get it!
Assuming it's your primary residence, sure, but then whatever you want to buy to move into will have gone up 10% as well... probably more if you are upsizing.Let's remember to revisit this one in a few months to see whether this kind of pricing is actually being achieved.
NickCQ said:
kingston12 said:
I can't find and evidence of the advert now, but I'm sure that one came on in Summer 2020 at £950k and went under offer fairly quickly.
My Rightmove addon says similar:20/07/2020 Initial entry found: £950,000
10/05/2021 Price changed from £950,000 to £1,050,000
okgo said:
I've not been tracking other areas, but these always seemed similar in vibe/appearance/size etc to 'little chelsea' in Barnes. I think I'd rather live in Barnes on balance, there always used to be clear daylight between the two, it is becoming much less so!
Transport sucks in Barnes doesn't it? Particularly w/o Hammersmith Bridge. Plus more planes.I actually think that house could have swallowed £250k to redo, depending on state in 2010. So £700k ish cost, 11 years ownership, so 50% uplift in 11 years? What's that 3.75% compound growth a year?
Why is that crazy? Its hard to keep up with and tough numbers to view if you've been looking to buy and renting, but thats the nature of leveraged house purchases.
Why is that crazy? Its hard to keep up with and tough numbers to view if you've been looking to buy and renting, but thats the nature of leveraged house purchases.
NickCQ said:
Transport sucks in Barnes doesn't it? Particularly w/o Hammersmith Bridge. Plus more planes.
It's marginally slower than Surbiton, but probably a lot less busy, and of course actual prox to London for cabs etc is quite different.Planes not too bad there I think, but worse than Surbiton for sure. Hammersmith Bridge a problem of course. It has a similar feel to the nicer bit of Surbiton but is much more upmarket.
okgo said:
NickCQ said:
You have to assume that in 2010 it didn't have the side return or the loft done... that's >£100k of work at today's prices.
Yes, just looked on streetview and no loft in 2008. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMat...
rah1888 said:
Good work. I'd estimate about 200k there or so too, must have been living in a building site for a fair bit of those 10 years
gibbon said:
I actually think that house could have swallowed £250k to redo, depending on state in 2010. So £700k ish cost, 11 years ownership, so 50% uplift in 11 years? What's that 3.75% compound growth a year?
Why is that crazy? Its hard to keep up with and tough numbers to view if you've been looking to buy and renting, but thats the nature of leveraged house purchases.
It's usually the way with these eye-popping gains, when you adjust for costs, the passage of time & leverage the annualised % return is much more modest.Why is that crazy? Its hard to keep up with and tough numbers to view if you've been looking to buy and renting, but thats the nature of leveraged house purchases.
If you had borrowed 4.5x your salary in 2010 to invest in the stock market you would have done rather better
NickCQ said:
It's usually the way with these eye-popping gains, when you adjust for costs, the passage of time & leverage the annualised % return is much more modest.
If you had borrowed 4.5x your salary in 2010 to invest in the stock market you would have done rather better
Apart from not being able to live in the LSE, and tax If you had borrowed 4.5x your salary in 2010 to invest in the stock market you would have done rather better
They also barely paid any stamp going into that place which is a touch considering that would now cost you almost 50 grand in dead money to buy.
gibbon said:
I actually think that house could have swallowed £250k to redo, depending on state in 2010. So £700k ish cost, 11 years ownership, so 50% uplift in 11 years? What's that 3.75% compound growth a year?
Why is that crazy? Its hard to keep up with and tough numbers to view if you've been looking to buy and renting, but thats the nature of leveraged house purchases.
Indeed. There are definitely a lot of areas that have gone up far more than this one as well. Part of the surprise with this one is seeing this type of house for seven figures without a flash postcode attached.Why is that crazy? Its hard to keep up with and tough numbers to view if you've been looking to buy and renting, but thats the nature of leveraged house purchases.
My brother in law has just had an L shaped loft done in East London. Nothing fancy, and I sourced the roof windows, bathroom suite tiles doors and radiators. We are also doing the carpentry, doors spindles skirting etc via my polish bloke at 150 a day instead of the 250 quid a day the builder would charge. The loft builder was moaning (probably understandably) that his margin has been decimated after quoting for the job last September. To be fair to him he has stuck to his word and didn't increase the price which was just over 40k. All in the loft to a finished standard will have cost him about 43k and that is with nailing all the material costs we are supplying (for example i got the roof windows brand new for 175 quid, fire doors for 20 quid each etc).
Id expect that L shaped loft in Surbiton to be about 60-70k fully done and the side return to probably be about 70 to 80k in todays money.
Id expect that L shaped loft in Surbiton to be about 60-70k fully done and the side return to probably be about 70 to 80k in todays money.
princeperch said:
My brother in law has just had an L shaped loft done in East London. Nothing fancy, and I sourced the roof windows, bathroom suite tiles doors and radiators. We are also doing the carpentry, doors spindles skirting etc via my polish bloke at 150 a day instead of the 250 quid a day the builder would charge. The loft builder was moaning (probably understandably) that his margin has been decimated after quoting for the job last September. To be fair to him he has stuck to his word and didn't increase the price which was just over 40k. All in the loft to a finished standard will have cost him about 43k and that is with nailing all the material costs we are supplying (for example i got the roof windows brand new for 175 quid, fire doors for 20 quid each etc).
Id expect that L shaped loft in Surbiton to be about 60-70k fully done and the side return to probably be about 70 to 80k in todays money.
With respect, i think from your description, the level of fit, finish, materials your brother in law is aspiring to is somewhat different to that of the linked house. £20 fire doors are not really acceptable on £1m plus period properties. Id expect that L shaped loft in Surbiton to be about 60-70k fully done and the side return to probably be about 70 to 80k in todays money.
I am in the middle of a renovation, admittedly not a loft, but the costs for a high level spec and finish is staggering, however hard you try to keep a handle on it. Good stuff costs.
gibbon said:
With respect, i think from your description, the level of fit, finish, materials your brother in law is aspiring to is somewhat different to that of the linked house. £20 fire doors are not really acceptable on £1m plus period properties.
I am in the middle of a renovation, admittedly not a loft, but the costs for a high level spec and finish is staggering, however hard you try to keep a handle on it. Good stuff costs.
Indeed. That's why his loft is only costing about 40k and the one on a £1m house is going to probably be double that. Or 6 figures if you go to town. I thought that would have been apparent from my post but apologies if it wasn't. I am in the middle of a renovation, admittedly not a loft, but the costs for a high level spec and finish is staggering, however hard you try to keep a handle on it. Good stuff costs.
BTW (and with respect) the 20 quid firedoors are perfectly acceptable 6 panel doors ,perfectly acceptable for a family house (his is worth about 650k, so it's hardly a hovel). They would have cost about 100 each retail I just happened to be in the right place at the right time to pick them up for pennies. It all adds up.
okgo said:
Apart from not being able to live in the LSE, and tax
They also barely paid any stamp going into that place which is a touch considering that would now cost you almost 50 grand in dead money to buy.
The S&P 500 has made an 11-12% annualised unlevered total return over the last 10 years so you would still be up even taking into account rent and CGT.They also barely paid any stamp going into that place which is a touch considering that would now cost you almost 50 grand in dead money to buy.
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