How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]
Discussion
Turbo cab said:
So given the thread has been running for well over a decade, Is it safe to say house prices wont fall? 
Stretching the definition of 'decade' they have fallen (2008-10), risen a lot (2010-2014), fallen back a bit (2014-17) and then risen again (2017+)! Depending on area of course.p1stonhead said:
Macron said:
Don’t know the area that much but isn’t that not amazing over 20 years odd?I know the south east is a different beast but some places make 20 years look like 1000 in terms of house prices.
Compare that to Salaries. £25k vs £40k (for the same type of job in the same industry - not what I earn now)
loafer123 said:
And how have interest rates changed over the same period....?
I was paying 8.5% IIRC with a 5 year fixed rate. Then 6.6 % with a 5 year fixed rate. Then 4.6% on a 10 year fixed rate. I think. The variable rate was always lower. Son is just about to take out a 5 year fixed at 2.1%. T
Are you suggesting low interest rates cause house price inflation ?
okgo said:
Alfav6sti coming in with a full land reg breakdown of a semi in Beckenham that sold for £3k less this year than 2016 in 3,2,1...
Nope because for once, house prices haven't actually dropped in the area (really rather flat), as validated by recently sold and land registry. That's the bit I think you struggle with, facts vs desire. Anyone that dares show what house prices were doing over a multi year trend or via multiple sold properties = a HPC'er. Just sillyAlthough I suspect they will face some level of negative impact after the covid/stamp duty froth. Already seeing more supply, more previously SSTC back on the market, desirable family property not shifting for weeks. Data will be slow to catch up, just the way of property.
It's hard to see/determine what the extra few months of stamp duty will do, it might just allow more of the existing deals to go through and maybe a few extras may creep in. London was showing a negative month on month in the last reg despite all the activity. Data will probably show a positive overall message for a good few months yet, whilst there are the usual discreet markets/trends that are less conjusive to growth.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 9th March 09:03
NickCQ said:
Stretching the definition of 'decade' they have fallen (2008-10), risen a lot (2010-2014), fallen back a bit (2014-17) and then risen again (2017+)! Depending on area of course.
I agree I bought a house in 2004 for £220k
In the four years to 2008/9 its value rose to about £300k
It then bombed back down to not much more than I paid for it before slowly climbing back up to around what it was worth in 08/09 ( not adjusted for inflation )
I sold it in ‘19 for around £315k having paid £220k for it 15 years earlier ( according to an inflation tool that £220k would be worth £340k 2019 (BOE calc))
So I didn’t really make any money on it in real terms according to that
Edited by Earthdweller on Tuesday 9th March 09:30
Earthdweller said:
I sold it in ‘19 for around £315k having paid £220k for it 15 years earlier ( according to an inflation tool that £220k would be worth £357k today). So I didn’t really make any money on it in real terms according to that
Yes, but if you had had a £150k mortgage on it you would have turned £70k into £165k, comfortably beating inflation.I think the only palatable path forwards for the housing market is nominal price stagnation (real terms deflation) with 2%+ wage inflation to match consumer prices.
NickCQ said:
Stretching the definition of 'decade' they have fallen (2008-10), risen a lot (2010-2014), fallen back a bit (2014-17) and then risen again (2017+)! Depending on area of course.
One for the HousePriceCrashers 
"Rubbish investment", "Prices are actually less than they were in 2007", "Not buying until prices are at 2005 levels", "Renting is cheaper long term", "A 50% crash is coming"
NickCQ said:
Yes, but if you had had a £150k mortgage on it you would have turned £70k into £165k, comfortably beating inflation.
I think the only palatable path forwards for the housing market is nominal price stagnation (real terms deflation) with 2%+ wage inflation to match consumer prices.
True .. and I did I think the only palatable path forwards for the housing market is nominal price stagnation (real terms deflation) with 2%+ wage inflation to match consumer prices.
But paying down debt isn’t the same as if id owned the house outright, in which case I would have lost money in real terms
Taken as a stand-alone the house isn’t anymore today than it was in 2004
( clearly this isn’t London )
Joey Deacon said:
One for the HousePriceCrashers
"Rubbish investment", "Prices are actually less than they were in 2007", "Not buying until prices are at 2005 levels", "Renting is cheaper long term", "A 50% crash is coming"
A mate of mine owned one of those, next to the old petrol station (prettier version, proper cottage) - made out like a bandit when he got half a million for it years ago, thought it was a joke and would never go higher "Rubbish investment", "Prices are actually less than they were in 2007", "Not buying until prices are at 2005 levels", "Renting is cheaper long term", "A 50% crash is coming"
Does help that the whole road has been tarted up somewhat of course, but I'd not be paying 700k to live on it.
okgo said:
A mate of mine owned one of those, next to the old petrol station (prettier version, proper cottage) - made out like a bandit when he got half a million for it years ago, thought it was a joke and would never go higher
Does help that the whole road has been tarted up somewhat of course, but I'd not be paying 700k to live on it.
Me neither, but it was just the first house I found on right move that had a lot of transactions to show how prices had increased.Does help that the whole road has been tarted up somewhat of course, but I'd not be paying 700k to live on it.
Either way, it just goes to show that the 2007 crash just didn't even register in the SE.
okgo said:
Joey Deacon said:
One for the HousePriceCrashers
"Rubbish investment", "Prices are actually less than they were in 2007", "Not buying until prices are at 2005 levels", "Renting is cheaper long term", "A 50% crash is coming"
A mate of mine owned one of those, next to the old petrol station (prettier version, proper cottage) - made out like a bandit when he got half a million for it years ago, thought it was a joke and would never go higher "Rubbish investment", "Prices are actually less than they were in 2007", "Not buying until prices are at 2005 levels", "Renting is cheaper long term", "A 50% crash is coming"
Does help that the whole road has been tarted up somewhat of course, but I'd not be paying 700k to live on it.
Even when/if they are all done, it will remain a very busy road with a Kwik-Fit on it, so there is a limit to how much it can improve.
Just checking I've got this right:
When V6A posts a property that has gone up and down... that's cherry picking and not representative
But when someone else finds a property that has gone up a lot... that's representative of the whole market
Investing is about looking through the windscreen not the rear view mirror.
When V6A posts a property that has gone up and down... that's cherry picking and not representative
But when someone else finds a property that has gone up a lot... that's representative of the whole market
Investing is about looking through the windscreen not the rear view mirror.
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