How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]

[skwdenyer]

skwdenyer said:

https://www.strettons.co.uk/auction-residential-pr...

Auction property, guided at £500k+ with sale in a week's time. Will be interesting to see the result.

Last sold in November 2021 at £565k per Land Reg.

To update, this sold at auction a few days ago for £550k, contents included AIUI.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/130923278#/...
https://www.eigpropertyauctions.co.uk/search/prope...

If we discount the value of the contents, and assume a like-for-like basis of value, that would imply a 2.5% fall in 15 months. If we value the contents at even, say, £10k, that's a near-5% drop.

[Flooble]

skwdenyer said:

To update, this sold at auction a few days ago for £550k, contents included AIUI.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/130923278#/...
https://www.eigpropertyauctions.co.uk/search/prope...

If we discount the value of the contents, and assume a like-for-like basis of value, that would imply a 2.5% fall in 15 months. If we value the contents at even, say, £10k, that's a near-5% drop.

To be honest, that's within the average estate agent's error margin on valuation (and, thus, the average buyer's over or under-bid). The contents might even have been a net negative depending on the purchaser's plans. Not sure we can really draw a conclusion from that.

[skwdenyer]

Flooble said:

skwdenyer said:

To update, this sold at auction a few days ago for £550k, contents included AIUI.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/130923278#/...
https://www.eigpropertyauctions.co.uk/search/prope...

If we discount the value of the contents, and assume a like-for-like basis of value, that would imply a 2.5% fall in 15 months. If we value the contents at even, say, £10k, that's a near-5% drop.

To be honest, that's within the average estate agent's error margin on valuation (and, thus, the average buyer's over or under-bid). The contents might even have been a net negative depending on the purchaser's plans. Not sure we can really draw a conclusion from that.

I don't disagree. I was posting only as a data point because there's data available

[Sheepshanks]

skwdenyer said:

Flooble said:

skwdenyer said:

To update, this sold at auction a few days ago for £550k, contents included AIUI.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/130923278#/...
https://www.eigpropertyauctions.co.uk/search/prope...

If we discount the value of the contents, and assume a like-for-like basis of value, that would imply a 2.5% fall in 15 months. If we value the contents at even, say, £10k, that's a near-5% drop.

To be honest, that's within the average estate agent's error margin on valuation (and, thus, the average buyer's over or under-bid). The contents might even have been a net negative depending on the purchaser's plans. Not sure we can really draw a conclusion from that.

I don't disagree. I was posting only as a data point because there's data available

I don't think it tells us anything - It's not a "normal" house sale, it's being sold as an ongoing business. Looks a great yield (pre-tax), although I'd presume a large number of very short lets would be expensive to keep on top of. I could see running it sapping a lot of time.

[skwdenyer]

Sheepshanks said:

I don't think it tells us anything - It's not a "normal" house sale, it's being sold as an ongoing business. Looks a great yield (pre-tax), although I'd presume a large number of very short lets would be expensive to keep on top of. I could see running it sapping a lot of time.

The platform fees, advertising costs, cleaning, linen, and so on are very large. Where I am in the Dales, gross yields on holiday lets seem to be around 6% or so, but net yields can be well below that - half or less.

Set against that, a major benefit AIUI is that a short-term furnished holiday let will allow you to continue claiming tax relief on interest payments.

[djohnson]

skwdenyer said:

Sheepshanks said:

I don't think it tells us anything - It's not a "normal" house sale, it's being sold as an ongoing business. Looks a great yield (pre-tax), although I'd presume a large number of very short lets would be expensive to keep on top of. I could see running it sapping a lot of time.

The platform fees, advertising costs, cleaning, linen, and so on are very large. Where I am in the Dales, gross yields on holiday lets seem to be around 6% or so, but net yields can be well below that - half or less.

Set against that, a major benefit AIUI is that a short-term furnished holiday let will allow you to continue claiming tax relief on interest payments.

I can manage 4% net yield (pre tax) on furnished holiday letting in Northumberland (fully managed), albeit property prices likely less than Dales. Agree tax regime on furnished holiday letting is good relative to buy to let.

[Leicester Loyal]

Leicester Loyal said:

Another 1.25% off my property value (compared to last month) according to Zoopla when checking this morning.

2.9% off my property value (compared to last month) according to Zoopla when checking this morning.

Leicester Loyal said:

You're absolutely correct, 19.5% up on my purchase 18 months ago, will take another couple of years of this in order to get us back to where we were in 2021.

Still 16% up on my purchase.

[Flooble]

Leicester Loyal said:

Leicester Loyal said:

Another 1.25% off my property value (compared to last month) according to Zoopla when checking this morning.

2.9% off my property value (compared to last month) according to Zoopla when checking this morning.

Leicester Loyal said:

You're absolutely correct, 19.5% up on my purchase 18 months ago, will take another couple of years of this in order to get us back to where we were in 2021.

Still 16% up on my purchase.

I think it's probably not healthy to check every month - you bought it to live in, enjoy it for that. And you aren't paying rent.

Focussing on "am I up or down this month" could easily lead into a bit of depressive spiral in my opinion.

[Leicester Loyal]

Flooble said:

I think it's probably not healthy to check every month - you bought it to live in, enjoy it for that. And you aren't paying rent.

Focussing on "am I up or down this month" could easily lead into a bit of depressive spiral in my opinion.

It's purely for this thread mate, and it going down means my next house purchase in 2026 is getting even cheaper by the month

Agree with you 100%.

[Shnozz]

Leicester Loyal said:

Flooble said:

I think it's probably not healthy to check every month - you bought it to live in, enjoy it for that. And you aren't paying rent.

Focussing on "am I up or down this month" could easily lead into a bit of depressive spiral in my opinion.

It's purely for this thread mate, and it going down means my next house purchase in 2026 is getting even cheaper by the month

Agree with you 100%.

Forgetting LTV for a moment, then you would be better if prices crashed to the floor in that case.

Always makes me smile how folks heading up the ladder seemingly celebrate a 20% or whatever price rise.

[okgo]

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/86055789

Huge loss inbound on this for whoever did the work. Paid £3.28m 2 years ago, would surprise me if they had spent less than 500k on that, maybe much more given the increased size dramatically.

[panholio]

okgo said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/86055789

Huge loss inbound on this for whoever did the work. Paid £3.28m 2 years ago, would surprise me if they had spent less than 500k on that, maybe much more given the increased size dramatically.

Nice gaff though :-)

[MattS5]

okgo said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/86055789

Huge loss inbound on this for whoever did the work. Paid £3.28m 2 years ago, would surprise me if they had spent less than 500k on that, maybe much more given the increased size dramatically.

Not even a single garage big enpugh to get a car in. Pah

[Sheepshanks]

okgo said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/86055789

Huge loss inbound on this for whoever did the work. Paid £3.28m 2 years ago, would surprise me if they had spent less than 500k on that, maybe much more given the increased size dramatically.

The pictures on the previously sold listing mention 2013 though?

Surely it was already done up when the current owner bought it, otherwise the price progression doesn't make sense:
2013 - £1,150,000
2017 - £1,450,000
2021 - £3,280,000


Wonder how they've stopped that appearing in the Property Sale Listing on the main page?

[okgo]

Sheepshanks said:

Are those pictures on the previously sold listing from 2013 though?

The price progression is a bit oddd:
2013 - £1,150,000
2017 - £1,450,000
2021 - £3,280,000

..surely it was already done up when the current owner bought it?

I think you're right yes, my mistake, have looked at different dates on streetview. The doer uppers paid the 1.45 for it then did the work and flogged it done for the 3.2m.

So looks as if they will make a small loss when you consider stamp @300k, legals, fees etc probably amounting to 75-100k.

The mind boggles doesn't it. Spending what is a large amount of money on a large house for it not to be suitable only 2 years later? Divorce, job loss, cost of borrowing too prohibitive now their 2 year deal has ended? hmm

[Sheepshanks]

okgo said:

I think you're right yes, my mistake, have looked at different dates on streetview. The doer uppers paid the 1.45 for it then did the work and flogged it done for the 3.2m.

They must have done well out of it!

The house itself is pretty much my dream house, but I'd want more space around it, and the north facing garden would probably rule it out.

[number2]

okgo said:

Sheepshanks said:

Are those pictures on the previously sold listing from 2013 though?

The price progression is a bit oddd:
2013 - £1,150,000
2017 - £1,450,000
2021 - £3,280,000

..surely it was already done up when the current owner bought it?

I think you're right yes, my mistake, have looked at different dates on streetview. The doer uppers paid the 1.45 for it then did the work and flogged it done for the 3.2m.

So looks as if they will make a small loss when you consider stamp @300k, legals, fees etc probably amounting to 75-100k.

The mind boggles doesn't it. Spending what is a large amount of money on a large house for it not to be suitable only 2 years later? Divorce, job loss, cost of borrowing too prohibitive now their 2 year deal has ended? hmm

Or moving somewhere with a better [for them] location, or maybe to a more expensive house. It's not always a downwards price move. Could have come into money - new job, promotion, inheritance.

Nice enough house mind you, looks like a good job by the previous owners.

[okgo]

number2 said:

Or moving somewhere with a better [for them] location, or maybe to a more expensive house. It's not always a downwards price move. Could have come into money - new job, promotion, inheritance.

Nice enough house mind you, looks like a good job by the previous owners.

Not many people even with lots of money have nearly a million quid (assuming moving up, its another 300k+ in stamp etc) to piss away in fees in 2 years. And if they did have that sort of cash I wager they wouldn't have been looking at 3 million quid houses in a fairly average town (real estate wise, this is probably the most expensive place in the whole town) in the first place when you can easily spend more in surrounding areas, mate of mine lived in Durford Wood for example, plenty in there bigger and fancier than this. I think the only one of those situations you mention I'd buy is inheritance, but even then, you'd have thought that 2 years ago you have a view on that and plan accordingly. I suppose we will never know

It does look nicely done, albeit in a kind of predictable way.

[number2]

okgo said:

number2 said:

Or moving somewhere with a better [for them] location, or maybe to a more expensive house. It's not always a downwards price move. Could have come into money - new job, promotion, inheritance.

Nice enough house mind you, looks like a good job by the previous owners.

Not many people even with lots of money have nearly a million quid (assuming moving up, its another 300k+ in stamp etc) to piss away in fees in 2 years. And if they did have that sort of cash I wager they wouldn't have been looking at 3 million quid houses in a fairly average town (real estate wise, this is probably the most expensive place in the whole town) in the first place when you can easily spend more in surrounding areas, mate of mine lived in Durford Wood for example, plenty in there bigger and fancier than this. I think the only one of those situations you mention I'd buy is inheritance, but even then, you'd have thought that 2 years ago you have a view on that and plan accordingly. I suppose we will never know

It does look nicely done, albeit in a kind of predictable way.

We could certainly construct a variety of scenarios under which the owners would move and spend more, or less, but we will never know why they really moved. Would be interesting to know though, them and others . Actually, it's probably divorce!

Yes, there's is more likelihood of trading up in the market a lower price point than at that price point.

[brickwall]

okgo said:

Sheepshanks said:

Are those pictures on the previously sold listing from 2013 though?

The price progression is a bit oddd:
2013 - £1,150,000
2017 - £1,450,000
2021 - £3,280,000

..surely it was already done up when the current owner bought it?

I think you're right yes, my mistake, have looked at different dates on streetview. The doer uppers paid the 1.45 for it then did the work and flogged it done for the 3.2m.

So looks as if they will make a small loss when you consider stamp @300k, legals, fees etc probably amounting to 75-100k.

The mind boggles doesn't it. Spending what is a large amount of money on a large house for it not to be suitable only 2 years later? Divorce, job loss, cost of borrowing too prohibitive now their 2 year deal has ended? hmm

I’d wager they’re asking £3.5m because that’s broadly what their break-even is (after SDLT, fees, etc.). I’d also wager they struggle to sell it for more than the £3.28m they paid. Keep an eye on it, it’ll be interesting to see what it eventually goes for.

Let’s say they do sell for £3.28m - the cost of 2 years living there would be roughly £400k…that’s some damn expensive rent.