How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]

How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]

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Discussion

okgo

38,086 posts

199 months

Thursday 23rd February 2023
quotequote all
Yep.

Meanwhile in BOMAD trendy SW London a house down the road has been sold, and I saw all of the kids (grad age) moving into it this week. £1.25m, assume one of the adults helping them fill it with IKEA ste was the parent that bought it, and the other young folk the mates of whomever the lucky recipient is of their first step on the ladder rofl


Sheepshanks

32,806 posts

120 months

Thursday 23rd February 2023
quotequote all
brickwall said:
- the cost of 2 years living there would be roughly £400k…that’s some damn expensive rent.
Let's hope the refurb included mega-insulation otherwise its energy bills will probabaly be about the same - especially if the owners run the a/c!

brickwall

5,250 posts

211 months

Thursday 23rd February 2023
quotequote all
Sheepshanks said:
Let's hope the refurb included mega-insulation otherwise its energy bills will probabaly be about the same - especially if the owners run the a/c!
EPC D, so not horrific. And no pool.

6,000sq ft. My guess is gas + electricity will be ~£1k/month (smoothed over the year).

JagLover

42,450 posts

236 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
0.5% monthly fall in February per Nationwide

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64807971

Now down on a YTD basis.

anonymous-user

55 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
okgo said:
Yep.

Meanwhile in BOMAD trendy SW London a house down the road has been sold, and I saw all of the kids (grad age) moving into it this week. £1.25m, assume one of the adults helping them fill it with IKEA ste was the parent that bought it, and the other young folk the mates of whomever the lucky recipient is of their first step on the ladder rofl
It has always been this way. Talking to one of my retired neighbours, every time one of their children wanted to buy a house, they sold a BTL and gave them the money. All of them are now in their early 40s with young children living in big houses in leafy parts of London.

At my mum's company, the majority of the university graduates came from wealthy families, and all of them had a beautiful Victorian house to live in. They then meet a guy from a similar background who also has a house, they buy another house together and rent their previous houses out.

Lots and lots of graduates are getting grannies inheritance early and buying £1 million+ houses as their first homes.

If you live in the SE/London and don't come from a family with money then you are fked.

princeperch

7,931 posts

248 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
Flats in my old z2 area of bow and mile end are now looking fair value to me.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132098081#/...

This for example. You could probably shave a bit off the asking if you pushed your luck. 20k would see that in decent condition although you'll be buying your kitchen and bathrooms from b&q/Wickes rather than one of the fancy kitchen places in clerkenwell.

As a young graduate I'd rather take my chances by buying somewhere like that than renting it for 1400 a month.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132070013#/...

Something like this is also fine. For a young couple starting out, assuming they both have 30/40k jobs stuff like this is more than doable.

Edited by princeperch on Wednesday 1st March 09:39

Louis Balfour

26,306 posts

223 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
princeperch said:
Flats in my old z2 area of bow and mile end are now looking fair value to me.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132098081#/...

This for example. You could probably shave a bit off the asking if you pushed your luck. 20k would see that in decent condition although you'll be buying your kitchen and bathrooms from b&q/Wickes rather than one of the fancy kitchen places in clerkenwell.

As a young graduate I'd rather take my chances by buying somewhere like that than renting it for 1400 a month.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132070013#/...

Something like this is also fine. For a young couple starting out, assuming they both have 30/40k jobs stuff like this is more than doable.

Edited by princeperch on Wednesday 1st March 09:39
Lots of mold in there and in slightly unusual places.


Louis Balfour

26,306 posts

223 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
Louis Balfour said:
princeperch said:
Flats in my old z2 area of bow and mile end are now looking fair value to me.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132098081#/...

This for example. You could probably shave a bit off the asking if you pushed your luck. 20k would see that in decent condition although you'll be buying your kitchen and bathrooms from b&q/Wickes rather than one of the fancy kitchen places in clerkenwell.

As a young graduate I'd rather take my chances by buying somewhere like that than renting it for 1400 a month.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132070013#/...

Something like this is also fine. For a young couple starting out, assuming they both have 30/40k jobs stuff like this is more than doable.

Edited by princeperch on Wednesday 1st March 09:39
Lots of mold in the first one and in slightly unusual places.

soxboy

6,280 posts

220 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
‘House Prices See Biggest Annual Fall In Over 10 Years’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64807971

I see the BBC are turning more into the Daily Fail with their scare story headlines.

A 1.1% fall FFS. ‘The price of an average property is now £257,406, down from £258,297’, so £891 drop in a year. I thought this about was the cost of a meal out for most on PH?

NomduJour

19,144 posts

260 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
princeperch said:
Flats in my old z2 area of bow and mile end are now looking fair value to me.
Not if they keep falling, and you end up stuck there.

xeny

4,320 posts

79 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
NomduJour said:
Not if they keep falling, and you end up stuck there.
People will start getting very selective if that is at the back of their mind.

Fusion777

2,236 posts

49 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
soxboy said:
‘House Prices See Biggest Annual Fall In Over 10 Years’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64807971

I see the BBC are turning more into the Daily Fail with their scare story headlines.

A 1.1% fall FFS. ‘The price of an average property is now £257,406, down from £258,297’, so £891 drop in a year. I thought this about was the cost of a meal out for most on PH?
That’s not peak to current price though, which is about -6%.

JagLover

42,450 posts

236 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
Fusion777 said:
That’s not peak to current price though, which is about -6%.
Yes their headline is fairly meaningless what is important is yet another monthly fall and this one a significant one. Direction of travel is fairly clear, but how far they will fall is questionable.

okgo

38,086 posts

199 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
Joey Deacon said:
It has always been this way. Talking to one of my retired neighbours, every time one of their children wanted to buy a house, they sold a BTL and gave them the money. All of them are now in their early 40s with young children living in big houses in leafy parts of London.

At my mum's company, the majority of the university graduates came from wealthy families, and all of them had a beautiful Victorian house to live in. They then meet a guy from a similar background who also has a house, they buy another house together and rent their previous houses out.

Lots and lots of graduates are getting grannies inheritance early and buying £1 million+ houses as their first homes.

If you live in the SE/London and don't come from a family with money then you are fked.
You can still do it yourself but the irony being that it would likely be someone from a wealthy family that had all the ‘tools’ required to do so. Those are the ones that get bunged the cash from BOMAD.

Went to view a free school earlier, basically just kids from the estates it ends up as because the only people that can buy here have private school cash or have moved to Guildford/Farnham etc.

Weird world.

brickwall

5,250 posts

211 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
Joey Deacon said:
okgo said:
Yep.

Meanwhile in BOMAD trendy SW London a house down the road has been sold, and I saw all of the kids (grad age) moving into it this week. £1.25m, assume one of the adults helping them fill it with IKEA ste was the parent that bought it, and the other young folk the mates of whomever the lucky recipient is of their first step on the ladder rofl
It has always been this way. Talking to one of my retired neighbours, every time one of their children wanted to buy a house, they sold a BTL and gave them the money. All of them are now in their early 40s with young children living in big houses in leafy parts of London.

At my mum's company, the majority of the university graduates came from wealthy families, and all of them had a beautiful Victorian house to live in. They then meet a guy from a similar background who also has a house, they buy another house together and rent their previous houses out.

Lots and lots of graduates are getting grannies inheritance early and buying £1 million+ houses as their first homes.

If you live in the SE/London and don't come from a family with money then you are fked.
I went to view a house between the commons a few weeks ago. Story was it was bought 5 years ago (for £1.4M) outright by the parents for the kids to use as a post-uni base. Now selling as the kids want to move in with partners etc.

And as a sign of the times, it was asking £1.5M. Back at peak Covid they’d have been asking £1.75M (and might have got it).

Went quite quickly.

ooid

4,098 posts

101 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
princeperch said:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132070013#/...

Something like this is also fine. For a young couple starting out, assuming they both have 30/40k jobs stuff like this is more than doable.

Edited by princeperch on Wednesday 1st March 09:39
I liked that second one. By the way, check what just came into the market in E12. I assumed you know the owner, I guess it is a relocation related, such a good property (imho) with its basics and massive space, in front of the park.

okgo

38,086 posts

199 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
brickwall said:
I went to view a house between the commons a few weeks ago. Story was it was bought 5 years ago (for £1.4M) outright by the parents for the kids to use as a post-uni base. Now selling as the kids want to move in with partners etc.

And as a sign of the times, it was asking £1.5M. Back at peak Covid they’d have been asking £1.75M (and might have got it).

Went quite quickly.
Noticed another pop up for 1.3 earlier. As you say, times a changing.

princeperch

7,931 posts

248 months

Wednesday 1st March 2023
quotequote all
ooid said:
I liked that second one. By the way, check what just came into the market in E12. I assumed you know the owner, I guess it is a relocation related, such a good property (imho) with its basics and massive space, in front of the park.
Yeh I know both the bloke selling the house and the estate agent too as he sold my old house.

They're moving up north as he has got another job as a teacher up there. Be interesting to see if they get their price !


princeperch

7,931 posts

248 months

Thursday 2nd March 2023
quotequote all
Looking at the most recent sold prices in my road which have just updated - last sale end of October 2022 completed at 1.1m (was marketed at offers in excess of 985k it was completely extended and done) and the other without the loft done completed at £1,040m (on for offers in excess of 945k).

1.1 was really the benchmark back in 2020/2021 so doesn't look like the surveyors have started to knock the valuations too hard the last few months which is slightly surprising to me.

brickwall

5,250 posts

211 months

Thursday 2nd March 2023
quotequote all
I think there is a big difference between even October 22 and now.

Something completing in October means it was marketed and went under offer well before Truss. In June you could still get a 5-year fix for under 3%, and that mortgage will have been valid until the end of the year.

Up until Jan/Feb there were still some buyers rushing to complete before a cheap mortgage expired - for them they might have know they would be ‘overpaying’ slightly, but it still made sense to do so if it meant getting a much cheaper mortgage.