How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]
Discussion
I was wondering how much it would cost these days to appoint a firm similar to Wallis, Gilbert and Partners to do the design? Even that might be beyond a serving Major’s affordablity.
The article reads like the Major owned a big (but old) house on the site beforehand. He may have been in business but kept his handle.
Obviously it's a bit of an extreme example of not being able to afford the same house today, but I guess it's pretty common - I recall a TV programme many years ago about London prices even then featuring a retired postman in a million pound place.
The article reads like the Major owned a big (but old) house on the site beforehand. He may have been in business but kept his handle.
Obviously it's a bit of an extreme example of not being able to afford the same house today, but I guess it's pretty common - I recall a TV programme many years ago about London prices even then featuring a retired postman in a million pound place.
Sheepshanks said:
Obviously it's a bit of an extreme example of not being able to afford the same house today, but I guess it's pretty common - I recall a TV programme many years ago about London prices even then featuring a retired postman in a million pound place.
Going back to late 80s/early 90s, a lot of London was very affordable, in fact much of it was a dump. Where we live now, in Cambridgeshire was a small medieval town and felt very rural. In the past 21 years, it’s doubled in population and the surrounding fields have been turned into housing estates. Same all over the country - supply and demand, and there are too many people for things to stay as they were, many of them taking more out than they will ever contribute. wormus said:
Sheepshanks said:
Obviously it's a bit of an extreme example of not being able to afford the same house today, but I guess it's pretty common - I recall a TV programme many years ago about London prices even then featuring a retired postman in a million pound place.
Going back to late 80s/early 90s, a lot of London was very affordable, in fact much of it was a dump. Where we live now, in Cambridgeshire was a small medieval town and felt very rural. In the past 21 years, it’s doubled in population and the surrounding fields have been turned into housing estates. Same all over the country - supply and demand, and there are too many people for things to stay as they were, many of them taking more out than they will ever contribute. They’re not building as much good stuff any more… thus demand and prices for nice stuff is up.
Even a modern barn conversion or something now is burdened with a ‘mini’ hamlet as all the other buildings are turned to houses, then the shared drive, bin stores, suds lake… it just starts to feel like another new build estate and developers strip out costs to make it all profitable, thus removing character and interest.
Better to just buy an old big run down detached house with space around it and do it up yourself… but also one that can’t be HMO’d or turned to flats otherwise you’ll have no hope.
skwdenyer said:
Jobbo said:
M1AGM said:
It's fairly straightforward. EAs are paid on commission for a sale. Say 1% for example on a £500k asking price. The EA just wants his/her money. The buyer chips the price 10% from the asking price, the EA will still get £4.5k if it goes through, the EA has no incentive to go back to the seller and propose other buyers to get the seller the extra money, because the EA would have to wait longer and do more work just to gain £500, much easier to plough on with the deal in progress even if it means the vendor loses out. EAs are absolutely not on the side of the vendor.
Exactly this - set out very clearly in Freakonomics a couple of decades ago. If the agent gets the sale through eventually they’ve still done the job. Who is to know the second in line wouldn’t faff about or chip the price too?
The EA may not in reality be on the side of the vendor, but I’m pretty certain the Estate Agency Act is still in force… but since we don’t actually enforce regulations…
There's a Target £500k. Get a sale and get it completed within 15 weeks, you get £5k. Get a sale of £510k and complete within 10 weeks you get £10k
Gat a sale at £490k and you get £500.
Get a sale at £500k but complete after 20 weeks and you get £500
Incentivise the price and the timescale.
When we sold a house last year, the first decent offer was a woman selling a house through the same agent.
She had a first time buyer, who turned out not to able to complete when that house was valued at £10k less. We even offered to knock £5k off our price, but our buyer still couldn't or wouldn't help her buyer out.
The agent really seemed to want us to be patient, and we were to a point. When we put it back on the market, they found a buyer 3 days later who despite needing a small mortgage was able to push it through in 5 weeks. He did buy the searches off our original purchaser which saved 4 weeks.
An article today about mortgage arrears and repossessions - https://theintermediary.co.uk/2024/02/mortgage-arr...
Sheepshanks said:
Gove in The Sunday Times this morning talking about the threat to democracy of young people not being able to get onto the housing ladder
He has a number of plans in mind. Be pretty clever if they can take action which doesn’t cause property prices to increase.
Exactly.He has a number of plans in mind. Be pretty clever if they can take action which doesn’t cause property prices to increase.
The problem is the solutions that are quick to enact are all demand-side and just result in prices being pushed up. The only real solution is to build more houses (and Gove knows it), but is a very tough nut to crack and takes a long time.
I do not want to show particular properties seeing the amount of reduced properties (mostly flats) near Canary Wharf. (E14) is strange. Quite decent or even new properties have asking prices of 2015-2016 and some of them have already seen 7-10% asking price reductions. I'm aware loads of business moving (or planning to) out of the area but assumed there has been a steady population in the area whenever I visit?
Sheepshanks said:
Gove in The Sunday Times this morning talking about the threat to democracy of young people not being able to get onto the housing ladder
He has a number of plans in mind. Be pretty clever if they can take action which doesn’t cause property prices to increase.
I mean pretty obvious, people who don't feel they have a reason to maintain the 'current system' will not want to act to maintain or preserve it.He has a number of plans in mind. Be pretty clever if they can take action which doesn’t cause property prices to increase.
brickwall said:
Sheepshanks said:
Gove in The Sunday Times this morning talking about the threat to democracy of young people not being able to get onto the housing ladder
He has a number of plans in mind. Be pretty clever if they can take action which doesn’t cause property prices to increase.
Exactly.He has a number of plans in mind. Be pretty clever if they can take action which doesn’t cause property prices to increase.
The problem is the solutions that are quick to enact are all demand-side and just result in prices being pushed up. The only real solution is to build more houses (and Gove knows it), but is a very tough nut to crack and takes a long time.
There is loads they can do to help young people without causing prices to go up.
They just need to accept that they've been stimulating and encouraging greedy use of housing intended as homes, as assets for investors.
Whatever they did in 1995-2005 is what broke everything. And yet people saw it as some kind of success. Yep, a success at screwing our society for personal greed.
ooid said:
I do not want to show particular properties seeing the amount of reduced properties (mostly flats) near Canary Wharf. (E14) is strange. Quite decent or even new properties have asking prices of 2015-2016 and some of them have already seen 7-10% asking price reductions. I'm aware loads of business moving (or planning to) out of the area but assumed there has been a steady population in the area whenever I visit?
It felt to me that population in and near CW after Covid actually increased, they opened a whole new part of estate on the east end with loads of new, tall residential buildings that actually seemed inhabited and not empty investment propertiesIt is quite busy indeed. I remember it was still a ghost town (sort of) before 2017. I think oversupply of new builds again perhaps adjusting the prices but I can't see any demand dropping in that area despite some of big employers going away. Still quite central and close Proximity to the airports.
Sounds about right. When I was looking between the commons stuff moved quickly at 5-10% above 2018 prices, anything more than that and it sat around.
Once you factor in the SDLT on purchase and the agents fees on the way out, legals at both ends and anything spent on soft renovations it can often be a cash loss, not just a real-terms one.
(But also - This is what increasing affordability looks like!)
Once you factor in the SDLT on purchase and the agents fees on the way out, legals at both ends and anything spent on soft renovations it can often be a cash loss, not just a real-terms one.
(But also - This is what increasing affordability looks like!)
E14 also seems good value for rental. I see you can rent a fairly uninspiring but perfectly functional and practical 1 bed near a DLR station for 1500 quid or so
A professional couple should be able to comfortably stretch to that and would significantly save on commuting time and costs if one or both worked in the wharf.
A professional couple should be able to comfortably stretch to that and would significantly save on commuting time and costs if one or both worked in the wharf.
ooid said:
I do not want to show particular properties seeing the amount of reduced properties (mostly flats) near Canary Wharf. (E14) is strange. Quite decent or even new properties have asking prices of 2015-2016 and some of them have already seen 7-10% asking price reductions. I'm aware loads of business moving (or planning to) out of the area but assumed there has been a steady population in the area whenever I visit?
That's a very local thing. The Wharf has fallen out of favour for a number of reasons Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff