How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]
Discussion
okgo said:
Will end up in the same net position as there has been for the last year anyway given the stamp duty holiday will be going away soon.
The end of the stamp duty holiday is bound to change the overall picture somewhat. Though with regards to FTB's they are normally exempt from stamp duty up to £300k anyway of course, so mortgages with lower deposits and higher lending multiples ought to help boost demand at that end of the market at least, I'd guess it will be more significant outside of London and the hotspots.rxe said:
Do you mean total budget of 700 + 1.1? or 1.1 max?
If the latter, then our neighbour is selling this as an example:
https://www.chancellors.co.uk/properties/maidenhea...
Meets some of the criteria.
Bungalow. With a massive annex.
In catchment for Holyport School
About as "country" as you can get for Berkshire (although they are our nearest neighbours, they're half a mile from us)
Modern build, not new. The "annex" could be the project bit.
Golf course down the road, no idea if it is any good, I don't Golf.
Bray Lake is just down the road, we take the dog swimming there most days in the summer.
Community - well a hell of a lot more community than when we lived in London. IMO all places have community if you put the effort in.
Asian restaurants. Yeah, you've got me there. :-) I would describe as "passable", but you're not going to get big city food out in the sticks.
All depends on whether you value "country" vs. town. I like Henley, but I can't really see the difference between living in Henley and living in London - you've still got neighbours, expensive land values, pokey gardens etc.
Budget would be 1.1m. We could do up to 900 cash. The plan is not to have a huge mortgage so we can enjoy life a bit more - also stamp duty starts to really kick in after that.If the latter, then our neighbour is selling this as an example:
https://www.chancellors.co.uk/properties/maidenhea...
Meets some of the criteria.
Bungalow. With a massive annex.
In catchment for Holyport School
About as "country" as you can get for Berkshire (although they are our nearest neighbours, they're half a mile from us)
Modern build, not new. The "annex" could be the project bit.
Golf course down the road, no idea if it is any good, I don't Golf.
Bray Lake is just down the road, we take the dog swimming there most days in the summer.
Community - well a hell of a lot more community than when we lived in London. IMO all places have community if you put the effort in.
Asian restaurants. Yeah, you've got me there. :-) I would describe as "passable", but you're not going to get big city food out in the sticks.
All depends on whether you value "country" vs. town. I like Henley, but I can't really see the difference between living in Henley and living in London - you've still got neighbours, expensive land values, pokey gardens etc.
I think having convenience around us would be top priority. Country living is not something we are craving after a decade of living with 24 hour food on our doorstep.
My wife managed to get a random lady to pop round and have a look at the development today - turns out they lived in the condo next to us in Sentosa, so she has similar experience to us of expat life. She said it’s a very high spec finish and the grounds look great with lots of green space. The annual maintenance is only 500 quid, and the house comes with a car port for 2-3 cars including electric charging point. There is allocated visitor parking as well so it seems to be fairly car friendly.
Our last 2 homes have been in Discovery Bay in Hong Kong and Sentosa in Singapore, so we like these kind of Truman Show living arrangements.
It seems like you need to be spending 700 plus just for a doer upper in a good location, and I suspect the cost to make it up to my wife’s ideal spec will not be cheap...
kingston12 said:
okgo said:
PopsandBangs said:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/104895104#/
This is ticking some boxes i have to say. I'll see what it's like
Looks like a decent places, things to be aware of round those parts:This is ticking some boxes i have to say. I'll see what it's like
- It's near the tip, and the sewerage works, with an easterly wind it will smell (easterly usually fairly rare, apart from this year so far!)
- Quite a lot of students living over that way due to big campus of Kingston Uni not that far away (and its cheaper)
- It's cheaper because its quite a walk to the station (probably same to kingston as it is surbiton)
- There's limited buses there, and they can be busy, but you can walk to the main road and it will be fine
Other than that, I have always thought it was pretty reasonable around those parts, you have the Antelope Sister pub (The Albion) on Fairfield, and a personal fave tucked away nearby The Coconut also. I think the Wagon and Horses also nice, and the Spring Grove is alright too. The one very nearest to the house, the Duke of something looks rough though.
The problem is that it is between the two town centres, so you have to walk through quite a lot of suburban roads with not much going on before you actually get anywhere. Not like living in the centre of Wimbledon Village or Kew, unfortunately.
I used to live very close by myself years ago - The Duke was always the posties pub and got very little other clientele. It still looks the same but I think the chippy on the corner is much improved!
It looks like quite good value overall. To get the same in the Maple Road area would probably be at least £100k more and flats with outside space don't come up very often there anyway.
Edited by kingston12 on Wednesday 21st April 14:32
Kew not feasible.
Must stop planning what i'm going to do with places and mentally moving in
Hate this game already - seems like SW london is one big stream of salmons swimming upstream and fighting eachother. Back to the drawing board
PopsandBangs said:
Well quite a fruitless week, and plenty of disappointment. 3 spots in Surbiton (having decided its the place to be.... love it,) have been trumped at the last minute by "cash buyers" or not competitive enough in offers even at over asking, after being built up and chased by EAs and vetted etc.
Kew not feasible.
Must stop planning what i'm going to do with places and mentally moving in
Hate this game already - seems like SW london is one big stream of salmons swimming upstream and fighting eachother. Back to the drawing board
Surely given the sheer volume of flats in Surbiton, it is only a matter of time before one comes up that you get?Kew not feasible.
Must stop planning what i'm going to do with places and mentally moving in
Hate this game already - seems like SW london is one big stream of salmons swimming upstream and fighting eachother. Back to the drawing board
okgo said:
PopsandBangs said:
Well quite a fruitless week, and plenty of disappointment. 3 spots in Surbiton (having decided its the place to be.... love it,) have been trumped at the last minute by "cash buyers" or not competitive enough in offers even at over asking, after being built up and chased by EAs and vetted etc.
Kew not feasible.
Must stop planning what i'm going to do with places and mentally moving in
Hate this game already - seems like SW london is one big stream of salmons swimming upstream and fighting eachother. Back to the drawing board
Surely given the sheer volume of flats in Surbiton, it is only a matter of time before one comes up that you get?Kew not feasible.
Must stop planning what i'm going to do with places and mentally moving in
Hate this game already - seems like SW london is one big stream of salmons swimming upstream and fighting eachother. Back to the drawing board
PopsandBangs said:
Well quite a fruitless week, and plenty of disappointment. 3 spots in Surbiton (having decided its the place to be.... love it,) have been trumped at the last minute by "cash buyers" or not competitive enough in offers even at over asking, after being built up and chased by EAs and vetted etc.
Kew not feasible.
Must stop planning what i'm going to do with places and mentally moving in
Hate this game already - seems like SW london is one big stream of salmons swimming upstream and fighting eachother. Back to the drawing board
Glad you liked the area, sorry to hear about the struggles with the ones you have offered on so far!Kew not feasible.
Must stop planning what i'm going to do with places and mentally moving in
Hate this game already - seems like SW london is one big stream of salmons swimming upstream and fighting eachother. Back to the drawing board
I expect part of it is due to type of flat you are looking for (maisonette, own entrance, outside space). The market for houses around here is ultra-competitive, as those that miss out have the choice of getting the type of flat you are looking for as the next best thing, or moving further out. The flat will win out for quite a few buyers because then they get to retain the convenience of the area, and it's still a fair bit cheaper than a house in a good area further out.
It's been a really slow time for the traditional flats in blocks this year, but I've noted quite a few of those starting to move as well now.
Hopefully something will come up for you soon.
Nice garden conversions also good for downsizing. In my area can get a really nice 2-3 bed period garden flat with garage in a lovely area for the same money as a newer built 3 bed box house on a congested estate or a mundane 2 bed semi bungalow with 'ripe for loft conversion' tax applied.
PopsandBangs said:
Yeah hope so - although criteria of Edwardian Maisonette/garden/ high ceilings big rooms etc at £400-450 is of course ultra competitive. Avoiding a purpose built block place if possible.
Yes, when we were looking last year the one thing that was a definite for me was having our own front door. There are lots of flats available in 60s onwards blocks, but the older stuff is in much higher demand.Although there are lots of flats for sale, as you are finding once you eliminate the flats in blocks and anything without it's own door there isn't much remaining. We looked at a masionette in Cranes Park Crescent which was not really ideal but was a decent size with parking and that sold in days. It was 100% not what we wanted and would have been a compromise on everything, but it was a consideration.
This one actually https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95621492#/
As you are no doubt finding, the price is 100% dependent on the following
1)How close is it to the river - More expensive
2)Is it behind the station - Cheaper
3)Is it in a 60s/70s/80s block that they seemed to be keen to build at the time? - Cheaper
4)Is it a (probably poorly done) Victorian house conversion? - More expensive than 3
5)Is it a purpose built Victorian/Edwardian flat? - More Expensive than 4
Joey Deacon said:
Yes, when we were looking last year the one thing that was a definite for me was having our own front door. There are lots of flats available in 60s onwards blocks, but the older stuff is in much higher demand.
Although there are lots of flats for sale, as you are finding once you eliminate the flats in blocks and anything without it's own door there isn't much remaining. We looked at a masionette in Cranes Park Crescent which was not really ideal but was a decent size with parking and that sold in days. It was 100% not what we wanted and would have been a compromise on everything, but it was a consideration.
This one actually https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95621492#/
As you are no doubt finding, the price is 100% dependent on the following
1)How close is it to the river - More expensive
2)Is it behind the station - Cheaper
3)Is it in a 60s/70s/80s block that they seemed to be keen to build at the time? - Cheaper
4)Is it a (probably poorly done) Victorian house conversion? - More expensive than 3
5)Is it a purpose built Victorian/Edwardian flat? - More Expensive than 4
Indeed. The Cranes Park area is a good call actually - it's a bit cheaper than more central areas whilst still being relatively close to the station etc. Although there are lots of flats for sale, as you are finding once you eliminate the flats in blocks and anything without it's own door there isn't much remaining. We looked at a masionette in Cranes Park Crescent which was not really ideal but was a decent size with parking and that sold in days. It was 100% not what we wanted and would have been a compromise on everything, but it was a consideration.
This one actually https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/95621492#/
As you are no doubt finding, the price is 100% dependent on the following
1)How close is it to the river - More expensive
2)Is it behind the station - Cheaper
3)Is it in a 60s/70s/80s block that they seemed to be keen to build at the time? - Cheaper
4)Is it a (probably poorly done) Victorian house conversion? - More expensive than 3
5)Is it a purpose built Victorian/Edwardian flat? - More Expensive than 4
There are quite a lot of those type of maisonettes there as well with separate entrance, usable garden space and often a garage as well. No chance of getting a house with all of that for anything close to that price. Not for everyone though, understandably.
Things seem to be picking up for flats in my area. Neighbour's has just sold (+30 viewings!) at a reasonable valuation and as we've outgrown our place we're considering following suit....
Through chit-chat in the block a neighbour (currently renting) has heard that we're interested in selling and is potentially interested in doing something off-market at a price which is a c£10k/3% discount to what the agent we had over earlier this week hopes to achieve, less when we factor savings in agents fees (£5k) and work we'd otherwise do to tidy it up (£2k plus hassle factor).
Think the easiest thing to do is accept the off-market offer and pay an agent a token amount for progressing the sale. I think our biggest issue will be finding somewhere else to move to as houses in our budget, in our target locations, seem to be flying!!!
Through chit-chat in the block a neighbour (currently renting) has heard that we're interested in selling and is potentially interested in doing something off-market at a price which is a c£10k/3% discount to what the agent we had over earlier this week hopes to achieve, less when we factor savings in agents fees (£5k) and work we'd otherwise do to tidy it up (£2k plus hassle factor).
Think the easiest thing to do is accept the off-market offer and pay an agent a token amount for progressing the sale. I think our biggest issue will be finding somewhere else to move to as houses in our budget, in our target locations, seem to be flying!!!
I would get a few more valuations and try and narrow the gap - £10k / 3% is too big a discount given agents can be negotiated down to 1% incl. VAT. Interested to see what kind of rate agents would offer for "execution only". Clearly they will save the Rightmove fees and viewing / photo costs but then again I don't know how much value they would really add beyond a key collection service.
kiethton said:
Things seem to be picking up for flats in my area. Neighbour's has just sold (+30 viewings!) at a reasonable valuation and as we've outgrown our place we're considering following suit....
Through chit-chat in the block a neighbour (currently renting) has heard that we're interested in selling and is potentially interested in doing something off-market at a price which is a c£10k/3% discount to what the agent we had over earlier this week hopes to achieve, less when we factor savings in agents fees (£5k) and work we'd otherwise do to tidy it up (£2k plus hassle factor).
Think the easiest thing to do is accept the off-market offer and pay an agent a token amount for progressing the sale. I think our biggest issue will be finding somewhere else to move to as houses in our budget, in our target locations, seem to be flying!!!
That sounds a reasonable approach. That extra £10k that the agent hopes to achieve is likely to magically disappear a few weeks after they have got the instruction anyway.Through chit-chat in the block a neighbour (currently renting) has heard that we're interested in selling and is potentially interested in doing something off-market at a price which is a c£10k/3% discount to what the agent we had over earlier this week hopes to achieve, less when we factor savings in agents fees (£5k) and work we'd otherwise do to tidy it up (£2k plus hassle factor).
Think the easiest thing to do is accept the off-market offer and pay an agent a token amount for progressing the sale. I think our biggest issue will be finding somewhere else to move to as houses in our budget, in our target locations, seem to be flying!!!
Flats seem to be picking up around here as well, but still don't seem to be subject to the same level of speculation that houses are. If you were selling a house rather than a flat, I'd definitely recommend listing it with an agent let it get bid up out of control.
As you say, the difficult part is finding a house at anything like a reasonable price...
Edited by kingston12 on Wednesday 28th April 13:03
NickCQ said:
I would get a few more valuations and try and narrow the gap - £10k / 3% is too big a discount given agents can be negotiated down to 1% incl. VAT. Interested to see what kind of rate agents would offer for "execution only". Clearly they will save the Rightmove fees and viewing / photo costs but then again I don't know how much value they would really add beyond a key collection service.
Yes, they were quoting 1.25% + VAT so are at the expensive end but are the best in the area (sold next door) - if we went with them we'd be bidding them down in any event. They came in broadly in line with our expectations - next door sold for £355k, ours is 12% smaller in sqft so I had ours at £320-325k in my head - they said either market at £325k and get it bid up, or market a £335k and take £330k.Indeed, I have no idea on the costs for that service, half the value of an agent is making sure that a transaction completes at the end of the day....
fido said:
PopsandBangs said:
Hate this game already - seems like SW london is one big stream of salmons swimming upstream and fighting eachother.
Welcome to the layer cake .. I'm trying to find a place wtih a double-garage that hasn't been converted to a frikin' kitchen or reception.V6Alfisti said:
Land Registry out again today to help give us the overall reality vs asking prices.
Usual caveat around averages and clearly some area will be up in there and others down.
This months price change in the UK is 0% (or +0.2% for England)
England 0.2%
Northern Ireland £147,593 3.0%
Scotland -1.7%
Wales -0.7%
East Midlands 0.8%
East of England -0.9%
London -1.4%
North East -1.6%
North West 1.3%
South East 0.9%
South West 0.0%
West Midlands Region 0.8%
Yorkshire and The Humber 0.6%
I suspect this was again due to the expected close of the first stamp duty window nearing, but is probably a reasonable indicator of how the next close date will start to look (i.e high levels of action followed by a pretty steady flat line/regression). I would expect this to tick up again for a couple more months due to the extension.
I thought that would be more significant this month as last month it was -0.5% in the UK, then this month it is 0%...so that seems to have played out but interestingly when you look at areas like London, that has gone from 0.1% to -1.4% MOM change. It looks like the NW, Midlands and Yorkshire market is seeing the biggest reversal change from last month. However common to most areas there seems to be some strong price sensitivity to the stamp duty withdrawal (which is not unexpected).
Nationwide results out today and the HousePriceCrash cult are not happy.Usual caveat around averages and clearly some area will be up in there and others down.
This months price change in the UK is 0% (or +0.2% for England)
England 0.2%
Northern Ireland £147,593 3.0%
Scotland -1.7%
Wales -0.7%
East Midlands 0.8%
East of England -0.9%
London -1.4%
North East -1.6%
North West 1.3%
South East 0.9%
South West 0.0%
West Midlands Region 0.8%
Yorkshire and The Humber 0.6%
I suspect this was again due to the expected close of the first stamp duty window nearing, but is probably a reasonable indicator of how the next close date will start to look (i.e high levels of action followed by a pretty steady flat line/regression). I would expect this to tick up again for a couple more months due to the extension.
I thought that would be more significant this month as last month it was -0.5% in the UK, then this month it is 0%...so that seems to have played out but interestingly when you look at areas like London, that has gone from 0.1% to -1.4% MOM change. It looks like the NW, Midlands and Yorkshire market is seeing the biggest reversal change from last month. However common to most areas there seems to be some strong price sensitivity to the stamp duty withdrawal (which is not unexpected).
Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 21st April 17:20
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...
Up 2.1% this month. I predicted prices would rise 10% this year, so only another 7.9% to go.
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