How Far Will House Prices Fall [Volume 6]

How Far Will House Prices Fall [Volume 6]

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Discussion

Sheepshanks

23,584 posts

84 months

Tuesday
quotequote all
V6Alfisti said:
Land Registry is normally a month behind but is the most accurate as it is sold/completed houses e.g the last report on 21st April seems to have included completed sales up to the 26th March (from what I can see, unless anyone knows better)
LR say the first estimate captures about 40% or relevant sales. They revise it again and capture more. They also muck about with the data - it's not raw. Like I say though, in a fast moving market it could easily be 6 months behind the current price action.

V6Alfisti said:
In terms of the area I am looking at, lots more stock was coming on last week (I had 9 in one day - which was a new record) and having looked at the last 3 weeks of saved properties of interest only 2 have gone SSTC and the other 12 or so are still on the market. (This isn't the full market, just my saved properties in my search bracket). Even the sub £750-800k market has cooled but not to the same level. Although what is evident, the houses that are immaculate/perfect/oven ready, those are the ones that do move.
In our search area there's been just three properities added in the last three weeks. Pretty well everything older than that is SSTC - including one from early April that I scoffed at the listing when I saw it at £1M.


I'm very frustrated that there's an empty house nearby where the owner croaked last year and the sons still haven't put it on the market. I saw them at the house a few months ago and had a chat and left my details, but they didn't offer theirs (they live some way away). I think it'd be ideal for us, but don't want to get too wound up about it as the current market might encourage them to ask a bonkers price for it.

condor

8,704 posts

213 months

Tuesday
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They probably have to wait till probate is granted. Also if the deceased's will has solicitors as sole executors, could be well over a year before that house comes on the market. Or nearly 2 years, if the will recipients decided to take the house between themselves, so as to rid them of the solicitors involvement.


spikeyhead

12,461 posts

162 months

Tuesday
quotequote all
gangzoom said:
Leicester Loyal said:
424k for a new build terrace in Leicester, probably one of the most overpriced houses I've ever seen.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106053614#/
Am pretty sure that's a typo, a similar property in WoodHouse Eaves wouldn't command that price, let alone one next to the M1 sharing a borough boarder with one of the highest crime rates in the county.
I've recently seen a four bed detached in a good part of Birstal go for about £50k less than that. I can't see anyone paying that money for a terraced place there.

Ari

16,305 posts

180 months

Tuesday
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Joey Deacon said:
Nationwide results out today and the HousePriceCrash cult are not happy.

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...

Up 2.1% this month. I predicted prices would rise 10% this year, so only another 7.9% to go.
A rare post about house price trends in a house price trend thread!

They certainly seem to be rocketing in the south-west.

princeperch

6,759 posts

212 months

Tuesday
quotequote all
More tedious e11 updates from me.

This house isn't a million miles from me:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/79467543#/

It had multiple viewings and is under offer for 575, so I have been informed. 11 years ago it would have struggled to have achieved 200k in that condition, 8 year ago it might have made 225k. Even in 2014 it would have only been worth about 300k. And it needs a 6 figure sum spending on it now to bring it up to date and do the loft.

The lady who lived there told me she paid 10k for the house back in the 70s.

Strange times.

Edited by princeperch on Tuesday 4th May 18:16

ooid

2,467 posts

65 months

Tuesday
quotequote all
princeperch said:
More tedious e11 updates from me.


Strange times.

Edited by princeperch on Tuesday 4th May 18:16
Walking distance to underground, overground and Wanstead Flats. That is purely the valuation for a freehold nowadays in your area, just for the land is min. 500k. and can’t blame them! biggrin

NickCQ

4,179 posts

61 months

Tuesday
quotequote all
scope to add a lot of space in that loft wink

princeperch

6,759 posts

212 months

Tuesday
quotequote all
NickCQ said:
scope to add a lot of space in that loft wink
Christ, don't start that all again.

Sheepshanks

23,584 posts

84 months

Tuesday
quotequote all
condor said:
They probably have to wait till probate is granted. Also if the deceased's will has solicitors as sole executors, could be well over a year before that house comes on the market. Or nearly 2 years, if the will recipients decided to take the house between themselves, so as to rid them of the solicitors involvement.
They're doing it all themselves, apparently. There's just no sense of wanting to get on with it.

I dealt with FILs estate inc house sale a year ago and the thing that was a priority in my mind was to get the house away and not be stuck with it. These lads have probably now missed to chance to benefit from buyers being keen to miss stamp duty, and who knows what's going to happen to the market.

V6Alfisti

3,204 posts

192 months

Tuesday
quotequote all
Sheepshanks said:
V6Alfisti said:
Land Registry is normally a month behind but is the most accurate as it is sold/completed houses e.g the last report on 21st April seems to have included completed sales up to the 26th March (from what I can see, unless anyone knows better)
LR say the first estimate captures about 40% or relevant sales. They revise it again and capture more. They also muck about with the data - it's not raw. Like I say though, in a fast moving market it could easily be 6 months behind the current price action.

V6Alfisti said:
In terms of the area I am looking at, lots more stock was coming on last week (I had 9 in one day - which was a new record) and having looked at the last 3 weeks of saved properties of interest only 2 have gone SSTC and the other 12 or so are still on the market. (This isn't the full market, just my saved properties in my search bracket). Even the sub £750-800k market has cooled but not to the same level. Although what is evident, the houses that are immaculate/perfect/oven ready, those are the ones that do move.
In our search area there's been just three properities added in the last three weeks. Pretty well everything older than that is SSTC - including one from early April that I scoffed at the listing when I saw it at £1M.


I'm very frustrated that there's an empty house nearby where the owner croaked last year and the sons still haven't put it on the market. I saw them at the house a few months ago and had a chat and left my details, but they didn't offer theirs (they live some way away). I think it'd be ideal for us, but don't want to get too wound up about it as the current market might encourage them to ask a bonkers price for it.
How do you get to 6 months? They normally revise within a month (as do Halifax and nationwide - historically I remember it was largely always down, but don't know recently). Yes they do use their own methodology (as it needs to blend out the housing types) but it's the only one that isn't commercially funded, is all sales (not just the ones that cross their door) e.t.c. Hence to my eyes land registry is the best of what we have by miles.

Crikey, you do seem to be in one of the current hot zones. That's always the danger of averages, people can assume something is flying or otherwise. The only real way to tell is look at the market/area you are interested in and see what happens. It will be interesting post stamp duty 2 to see a more realistic view.

However appreciate that panic/impatience will set in when you are seeing what you are. Where are you again?

Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 4th May 19:57

Sheepshanks

23,584 posts

84 months

Tuesday
quotequote all
V6Alfisti said:
How do you get to 6 months?
Time from offer to completion. Won't always be 6 months, but could easily be - there's people in another thread who've been SSTC for so long they're talking about putting the price up.

V6Alfisti

3,204 posts

192 months

Tuesday
quotequote all
Sheepshanks said:
Time from offer to completion. Won't always be 6 months, but could easily be - there's people in another thread who've been SSTC for so long they're talking about putting the price up.
Ah got you, not a 6 months delay in land registry recording a sale post completion but rather a reflection of a lengthy sale.

Halifax and Nationwide are equally later down the line as they only record post survey and are still part market. So I suspect there is limited difference between the value agreed at this point and land registry. I don't think en mass negotiation post survey is a thing.

The only one that might be closer to today is Rightmove but that's just asking price and I think I saw something that still says a decent percentage of property on Rightmove doesn't sell. Although clearly some areas are running much hotter than usual.



Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 4th May 22:22