CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 11)

[Scrump]

Continued from here:
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

[R Mutt]

Ntv said:

Elysium - agree re kids.

I will have it for travel reasons primarily, and a minor consideration re elderly relatives (who of course are vaccinated). But I will have it resentfully and purely for the tape will send Stevens and Hancock an email saying I have been co-erced into having it.

Most my friends say the same about travel. Don't tell the government you'll accept coercion though. They're reading.

Although I want to know how they can reconcile this with their own scientists saying there won't be foreign holidays this Summer. I wasn't that bothered about going away, but I love the way that removes that incentive

[alangla]

320d is all you need said:

I would have thought your "contribution to the economy" drops off as you get older, sort of like a /-------\ shape?

When you're young obviously you're not contributing anything
As you get older and start working, earning money, paying taxes and buying things, you are contributing.
Then in your retirement you may have an initial surge on your pension but you soon end up dribbling in an old peoples home hehe

I wonder what the average yearly outgoings of an 80 year old is.

Surely if you're dribbling in an old people's home then you're spending a colossal amount of money every year? Presumably that cash also trickles down pretty quickly to people at or around minimum wage as well.

[oyster]

To add:
Public sector workers - pay freeze
Pensioners - inflation-busting pay rise

[RSTurboPaul]

To come back to the thread title after 10 entire Volumes of this thread...



Yes, the 'cure' is still worse than the disease.

[isaldiri]

R Mutt said:

Although I want to know how they can reconcile this with their own scientists saying there won't be foreign holidays this Summer. I wasn't that bothered about going away, but I love the way that removes that incentive

Well that new narrative has certainly put me right off the whole vaccine thing. I have no problems taking it and think for most people over age 30 and didn't get infected it's no bad thing to do so but as per the weekend comments it seems it will make no ultimate difference to masks, distancing and I am not allowed to go on holiday....so there is nfw I am taking it when offered because there is no bloody benefit in doing so it seems.

[Smollet]

oyster said:

To add:
Public sector workers - pay freeze
Pensioners - inflation-busting pay rise

Life isn’t fair. Suck it up

[Elysium]

Super scary story in the telegraph:

Telegraph said:

While the picture is broadly positive in the UK, the third wave of the coronavirus is causing devastation in countries like Brazil

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-...

Devastation sounds pretty awful. The article goes on to say that their numbers are 'particularly horrifying' that the countries health system is 'close to or facing a catastrophe' and that it is 'living through the worst collapse in history'

In that context its perhaps a bit surprising to see that their deaths per million people are still a considerable way BELOW our second wave peak.



Interesting evidence of seasonality in the data as well!

[Otispunkmeyer]

Elysium said:

Roman Rhodes said:

Elysium said:

A three pronged propaganda assault to maximise vaccine take up in the particular truculent 50-60 group:

1. Create a furure about vaccine passports, to normalise the idea.

2. Re-brand vaccine hesitancy as anti-social ant-vax conspiracy theory.

3. Create fake scarcity to suggest months long delays for anyone who ditheres.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9399531/O...

When did "anti-social ant-vax conspiracy theory" get re-branded as "vaccine hesitancy"?

I am going to try for a ‘grown up’ discussion.

I have no issue with vaccines. I’ve had all the jabs we recommend, including those for foreign travel. I’ve also had the flu vaccine for the last ten years to avoid spending a week feeling st.

Regardless of the above, I was deeply uncomfortable with the haste with which we rolled out deployment of COVID vaccines. Fortunately, this large scale gamble seems to have mostly worked out and severe adverse reactions have been thankfully rare.

I reckon I am about borderline at the point where vaccine benefit still slightly outweighs vaccine risk. I would not have been the first to have it, but I am happy to be the 35 millionth test subject.

I don’t think my kids should rush to take it until there is better research on the impact on younger people and I think all the coercive bks around vaccine passports is deeply counter productive.

So I had hesitation about this vaccine and still do for its use beyond the ‘at risk’ cohort. That does not make me remotely anti-vaxx

Same. No issue with Vaccines. Its the coercion I do not like.

I also think the speed with which these have been developed and rolled out is cause for a little concern, but actually having listened to those in the know about how these things get done, it does sound like most of the normal steps and processes were done and passed through. The difference was, government writing a blank cheque meant they could just get on and get through these steps in sequence and at speed.

But its just the coercion angle I don't like. I mean maybe someone can just correct my logic here but, as I see it:

1) the vaccines are known to A) significantly reduce the chance of getting severe illness and or ending up in hospital. B) As far as we know, AZN vaccine is also supposed to show up to 70% transmission reduction.

2)The older age groups, 70, 80, 90 are the groups most likely to get severe illness and need hospital. Indeed, this is where we have seen the most deaths and hospitalisations.

3) The vaccine should help those groups immeasurably, keeping them from getting too ill and keeping them from hospital. Though there will be some for whom the vaccine just won't help. Sad, but dare I say it? that is life.

4) The younger groups (i.e. 40 and under), in general, are not at risk of severe illness or of having to visit a hospital. In general, people is this group can just brush this off as a week of feeling grotty. Some more grotty than others granted, but its not life/death.

5) So for this group the benefit of the vaccine is minimal? The only thing would be reduced transmission....BUT!

6) Reduced transmission is said to be from reduced symptoms. If the 40 and unders don't get much in the way of symptoms (again, generally) then is that not the same? Proof of asymptomatic spread is scant? I've seen general feeling of 1 in 5 might be capable of it and of those they are much less likely to spread anyway because of their lack of symptoms. proof of vaccines stopping asymtomatic spread is....is there any?

7) Does it actually matter if the younger groups can spread it if the elderly and otherwise vulnerable are protected already? (save for the cohort where the vaccine is just not effective for whatever reason)... does vaccination of this group actually infer any protection on the older group? (i.e. say we swapped the process, vaccinated everyone under 50 first, would that actually then protect the elderly?)

I dunno, the last points, it just feels like it all circles back to just how many can you protect, how many cases is acceptable, how many deaths is acceptable. This conversation needs to had because its a real thing. We cannot do zero cases, zero deaths, its not practical and the cost is tremendous.

So to me, its just like the flu jab I don't get every year, because I judge that I don't really need it. I've had flu a handful of times, its not the best, but equally they've all been quite mild and after some days resting it off, all is right with the world.

Why can't the covid vaccine be like that?

[Don Veloci]

Vol.11 The Spinal Tap edition

I'm so worn down by this thing that Vol.22 would not surprise me!

[Nickgnome]

alangla said:

320d is all you need said:

I would have thought your "contribution to the economy" drops off as you get older, sort of like a /-------\ shape?

When you're young obviously you're not contributing anything
As you get older and start working, earning money, paying taxes and buying things, you are contributing.
Then in your retirement you may have an initial surge on your pension but you soon end up dribbling in an old peoples home hehe

I wonder what the average yearly outgoings of an 80 year old is.

Surely if you're dribbling in an old people's home then you're spending a colossal amount of money every year? Presumably that cash also trickles down pretty quickly to people at or around minimum wage as well.

Its an interesting supposition. However I can say that my max direct and indirect taxation was inn the 5 years before i retired. Now direct Tax is much less but indirect probably a bit more. My parents spend profile was not dissimilar until the got into their 80s when failing health prevented them from travelling as much. It was a pretty steep decline over 5 years or so. It got to the point that their inc one was greater than their spend. My outlaws at the time were very similar.

I'm not sure what the break even point is to warrant being a net contributor. Possibly £30k as and individual adult? Twice that with a partner and 2 children. Bit of a WAG.

[johnboy1975]

Otispunkmeyer said:

I also think the speed with which these have been developed and rolled out is cause for a little concern, but actually having listened to those in the know about how these things get done, it does sound like most of the normal steps and processes were done and passed through. The difference was, government writing a blank cheque meant they could just get on and get through these steps in sequence and at speed.

Anyone got any idea if the "gain of fuction" experiments in Wuhan were helpful/essential in getting about half a dozen (more?) cv19 vaccines successfully through trials? Was the data shared?

Edited by johnboy1975 on Thursday 25th March 15:41

[Ntv]

Otispunkmeyer said:

Elysium said:

Roman Rhodes said:

Elysium said:

A three pronged propaganda assault to maximise vaccine take up in the particular truculent 50-60 group:

1. Create a furure about vaccine passports, to normalise the idea.

2. Re-brand vaccine hesitancy as anti-social ant-vax conspiracy theory.

3. Create fake scarcity to suggest months long delays for anyone who ditheres.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9399531/O...

When did "anti-social ant-vax conspiracy theory" get re-branded as "vaccine hesitancy"?

I am going to try for a ‘grown up’ discussion.

I have no issue with vaccines. I’ve had all the jabs we recommend, including those for foreign travel. I’ve also had the flu vaccine for the last ten years to avoid spending a week feeling st.

Regardless of the above, I was deeply uncomfortable with the haste with which we rolled out deployment of COVID vaccines. Fortunately, this large scale gamble seems to have mostly worked out and severe adverse reactions have been thankfully rare.

I reckon I am about borderline at the point where vaccine benefit still slightly outweighs vaccine risk. I would not have been the first to have it, but I am happy to be the 35 millionth test subject.

I don’t think my kids should rush to take it until there is better research on the impact on younger people and I think all the coercive bks around vaccine passports is deeply counter productive.

So I had hesitation about this vaccine and still do for its use beyond the ‘at risk’ cohort. That does not make me remotely anti-vaxx

Same. No issue with Vaccines. Its the coercion I do not like.

I also think the speed with which these have been developed and rolled out is cause for a little concern, but actually having listened to those in the know about how these things get done, it does sound like most of the normal steps and processes were done and passed through. The difference was, government writing a blank cheque meant they could just get on and get through these steps in sequence and at speed.

But its just the coercion angle I don't like. I mean maybe someone can just correct my logic here but, as I see it:

1) the vaccines are known to A) significantly reduce the chance of getting severe illness and or ending up in hospital. B) As far as we know, AZN vaccine is also supposed to show up to 70% transmission reduction.

2)The older age groups, 70, 80, 90 are the groups most likely to get severe illness and need hospital. Indeed, this is where we have seen the most deaths and hospitalisations.

3) The vaccine should help those groups immeasurably, keeping them from getting too ill and keeping them from hospital. Though there will be some for whom the vaccine just won't help. Sad, but dare I say it? that is life.

4) The younger groups (i.e. 40 and under), in general, are not at risk of severe illness or of having to visit a hospital. In general, people is this group can just brush this off as a week of feeling grotty. Some more grotty than others granted, but its not life/death.

5) So for this group the benefit of the vaccine is minimal? The only thing would be reduced transmission....BUT!

6) Reduced transmission is said to be from reduced symptoms. If the 40 and unders don't get much in the way of symptoms (again, generally) then is that not the same? Proof of asymptomatic spread is scant? I've seen general feeling of 1 in 5 might be capable of it and of those they are much less likely to spread anyway because of their lack of symptoms. proof of vaccines stopping asymtomatic spread is....is there any?

7) Does it actually matter if the younger groups can spread it if the elderly and otherwise vulnerable are protected already? (save for the cohort where the vaccine is just not effective for whatever reason)... does vaccination of this group actually infer any protection on the older group? (i.e. say we swapped the process, vaccinated everyone under 50 first, would that actually then protect the elderly?)

I dunno, the last points, it just feels like it all circles back to just how many can you protect, how many cases is acceptable, how many deaths is acceptable. This conversation needs to had because its a real thing. We cannot do zero cases, zero deaths, its not practical and the cost is tremendous.

So to me, its just like the flu jab I don't get every year, because I judge that I don't really need it. I've had flu a handful of times, its not the best, but equally they've all been quite mild and after some days resting it off, all is right with the world.

Why can't the covid vaccine be like that?

Agree completely.

The only "answer" to your argument is the bogey man of VOC, and that a lower level of COVID in circulation reduces the chances of this.

Though in the same breath HMG and their advisers contradict this as a major public health threat with their high level of confidence the vaccines will work to a significant degree against other variants, but more to the point, that amended vaccines can be quickly produced as and when they are needed.

[Nickgnome]

oyster said:

To add:
Public sector workers - pay freeze
Pensioners - inflation-busting pay rise

I am one of those pensioners and for many of us it is entirely wrong.

However there are millions of pensioners whose only income is that state pension It is about £175/week which does not go far if you are in rented accommodation.

[The Don of Croy]

RSTurboPaul said:

To come back to the thread title after 10 entire Volumes of this thread...



Yes, the 'cure' is still worse than the disease.

+1.

[Toyoda]

Can't the mods carry over the bans from previous volumes to subsequent volumes?

[Ntv]

Nickgnome said:

oyster said:

To add:
Public sector workers - pay freeze
Pensioners - inflation-busting pay rise

I am one of those pensioners and for many of us it is entirely wrong.

However there are millions of pensioners whose only income is that state pension It is about £175/week which does not go far if you are in rented accommodation.

To be fair, housing benefit and Pension Credit would be available to many such people.

But your point is a fair one.

I do think state pension should be zero increase FWIW

[London424]

Ntv said:

Nickgnome said:

oyster said:

To add:
Public sector workers - pay freeze
Pensioners - inflation-busting pay rise

I am one of those pensioners and for many of us it is entirely wrong.

However there are millions of pensioners whose only income is that state pension It is about £175/week which does not go far if you are in rented accommodation.

To be fair, housing benefit and Pension Credit would be available to many such people.

But your point is a fair one.

I do think state pension should be zero increase FWIW

The public sector freeze also isn’t correct. They’ll still move an increment on the scale.

[basherX]

I see the Telegraph is reporting that the number of positives is now highest in the 10-19 age group. And that’s not at all linked to the massive increase in testing of that cohort, obviously.

Presumably, if the data is becoming dominated by randomly distributed false positives the daily interactive map on gov.U.K. Should slowly turn to a consistent National shade of green. Which, funnily enough, it is.

[Smollet]

Ntv said:

I do think state pension should be zero increase FWIW

Care to explain unless of course you think pensioners are exempt from cost of living increases in food, utilities, council tax etc??