The by-election thread

[citizensm1th]

JagLover said:

92% of Tory voters backed the cut in Foreign aid.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo...

Clearly the Lib Dem leader knows exactly what motivates Tory voters

I'd say they do. They just smashed a true blue majority

[Abdul Abulbul Amir]

404 Page not found said:

I grew up in Amersham, mum still lives there. Everyone hates the pointless destruction to the countryside HS2 is doing, far too many houses being built and pissing around with lockdowns. This result is simply a message to Boris that the people aren't impressed.

I worked for a large company in Amersham.

Sat around the table one lunchtime with my younger colleagues, all EU nationals, had to listen to them complaining about local house prices. I had to bite my tongue that 20 years ago Amersham was relatively cheap and the reason why prices had gone up was partly due to all the EU nationals wanting to buy.

The constituency is full of NIMBYs, they and the Lib Dems wanted EU freedom of movement but don't want to build the required housing on their lovely green fields. Champagne socialists that post about voting Labour on Facebook whilst splashing cash on putting their kids through tutoring to get into the grammar schools Labour wants to close down.

[bitchstewie]

JagLover said:

92% of Tory voters backed the cut in Foreign aid.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo...

Clearly the Lib Dem leader knows exactly what motivates Tory voters

He does in Amersham.

Whether that translates anywhere else goodness knows.

I've no idea about local issues as I didn't even know there was a by-election there until this morning but something's up when you go from holding a seat for 50 years to getting smashed overnight.

[JagLover]

citizensm1th said:

JagLover said:

92% of Tory voters backed the cut in Foreign aid.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo...

Clearly the Lib Dem leader knows exactly what motivates Tory voters

I'd say they do. They just smashed a true blue majority

So you believe that this was a Tory revolt against the foreign aid cut?

More projecting onto the result to arrive at whatever reason you happen to prefer.

[ATG]

JagLover said:

92% of Tory voters backed the cut in Foreign aid.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo...

Clearly the Lib Dem leader knows exactly what motivates Tory voters

Which sadly sums up the kind of people who currently vote Tory. I used to, but I can't do so any more.

[JagLover]

Abdul Abulbul Amir said:

I worked for a large company in Amersham.

Sat around the table one lunchtime with my younger colleagues, all EU nationals, had to listen to them complaining about local house prices. I had to bite my tongue that 20 years ago Amersham was relatively cheap and the reason why prices had gone up was partly due to all the EU nationals wanting to buy.

The constituency is full of NIMBYs, they and the Lib Dems wanted EU freedom of movement but don't want to build the required housing on their lovely green fields. Champagne socialists that post about voting Labour on Facebook whilst splashing cash on putting their kids through tutoring to get into the grammar schools Labour wants to close down.

According to the HOC library the UK needs to build 345,000 homes a year in order to keep up with household formation and to clear the backlog from years of underbuilding.

Where are these homes to be built?, well certainly not where many of those responsible live if you ask them.

[ATG]

JagLover said:

citizensm1th said:

JagLover said:

92% of Tory voters backed the cut in Foreign aid.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo...

Clearly the Lib Dem leader knows exactly what motivates Tory voters

I'd say they do. They just smashed a true blue majority

So you believe that this was a Tory revolt against the foreign aid cut?

More projecting onto the result to arrive at whatever reason you happen to prefer.

Engage your brain

[citizensm1th]

JagLover said:

citizensm1th said:

JagLover said:

92% of Tory voters backed the cut in Foreign aid.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo...

Clearly the Lib Dem leader knows exactly what motivates Tory voters

I'd say they do. They just smashed a true blue majority

So you believe that this was a Tory revolt against the foreign aid cut?

More projecting onto the result to arrive at whatever reason you happen to prefer.

The only poll that matters is an election. The liberals offered something the locals agreed with. Its a huge win for the libs they overturned a sixteen thousand majority and you think some yougov pol makes them wrong, deluded

[JagLover]

citizensm1th said:

The only poll that matters is an election. The liberals offered something the locals agreed with. Its a huge win for the libs they overturned a sixteen thousand majority and you think some yougov pol makes them wrong, deluded

You seem to be missing the point that while there were clearly issues that motivated local voters to change votes, or stay at home, unless the polls are far more incorrect than they normally are it is highly unlikely to be anything to do with the cut in the foreign aid budget. That is a measure popular with two thirds of the voters and over 90% of Tory voters.

[Welshbeef]

404 Page not found said:

I grew up in Amersham, mum still lives there. Everyone hates the pointless destruction to the countryside HS2 is doing, far too many houses being built and pissing around with lockdowns. This result is simply a message to Boris that the people aren't impressed.

In my area they are actively trying to get hundreds of new houses built. It’s a nightmare proposal as schools over subscribed dire need of an additional secondary school. 3 weeks wait for a dr appointment (pre pandemic) NHS dentist roflol. Plans show on 5 bed houses a lovely big (haha) garden 30 foot long Jeez. Massive congestion as is and air pollution pretty bad according to studies.

They want to build over golf courses/ recreational grounds and in this instance fell over 200 very old trees (whilst planting some new ones elsewhere). This area is built right up to the boundary with Oxfordshire.
Huge groups in the area actively looking at collective purchase of any such private grounds and keeping them “green” forever.

[pquinn]

bhstewie said:

Part of what Ed puts it down to.

Ed Davey said:

For them, the emperor has no clothes,” he said. “Those sorts of traditional, liberal Tories care about foreign aid, things like free school meals for poor kids, and worry about civil liberties. And they’re just being ignored.

You usually have to spend good money to get that disconnected from reality.

[oyster]

Not surprised at this result, the constituency is affluent, fairly young and heavily influenced by London and ‘metro’ issues. Pro remain as well.

It will be Tory at the next GE, but it’s almost the diametric opposite of a ‘Red Wall’ seat, and hence easy pickings for a protest liberal (small ‘l’) protest vote.

[Pan Pan Pan]

citizensm1th said:

JagLover said:

92% of Tory voters backed the cut in Foreign aid.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo...

Clearly the Lib Dem leader knows exactly what motivates Tory voters

I'd say they do. They just smashed a true blue majority

Looks distinctly like tactical voting, as labour took so few votes, they lost their deposit.
But as mentioned before, Ed Davey must now look for a place that has two telephone boxes side by side, to give them enough space for their party conference

[Nickgnome]

oyster said:

Not surprised at this result, the constituency is affluent, fairly young and heavily influenced by London and ‘metro’ issues. Pro remain as well.

It will be Tory at the next GE, but it’s almost the diametric opposite of a ‘Red Wall’ seat, and hence easy pickings for a protest liberal (small ‘l’) protest vote.

Just maybe they get to like their new MP so it is not automatic it will revert to Tory.

There is also building resentment in that educated upwardly mobile age group that Brexit reduced their opportunities to work and live in the Eu easily and now those same Tories are preferencing the Older Voters in the actions taken in relation to Covid.

[The Mad Monk]

I asked a friend of mine who lives there, what the reason for the Tory defeat was, he just wrote back.....

HS2.

[don'tbesilly]

Welshbeef said:

citizensm1th said:

Abdul Abulbul Amir said:

I suspect the biggest chunk of existing Tory vote stayed at home. The weather didn't help either.

If you can not be arsed to vote because of a bit of rain you don't deserve the vote

Someone mentioned earlier turnout was strong. Be good to see the actual results.

[Welshbeef]

The Mad Monk said:

I asked a friend of mine who lives there, what the reason for the Tory defeat was, he just wrote back.....

HS2.

Does your friend know ALL 3 parties fully back HS2 - if they didn’t want HS2 Green Party should have been voted for but oddly their vote share dropped.

So HS2 is codswhollop

[Abdul Abulbul Amir]

Welshbeef said:

The Mad Monk said:

I asked a friend of mine who lives there, what the reason for the Tory defeat was, he just wrote back.....

HS2.

Does your friend know ALL 3 parties fully back HS2 - if they didn’t want HS2 Green Party should have been voted for but oddly their vote share dropped.

So HS2 is codswhollop

Having read all the comments on the local FB group, HS2 was a big factor, however the perception is that any party except the Tories are anti-HS2 despite their 2019 manifestos. The Lib Dem leaflets didn't actually say she would try to stop HS2, just that she would try to minimise impact...same as the Tory candidate.

So in short, the people are thick.

[Puggit]

I grew up in the constituency (Little Chalfont) - it's as true blue as you can possibly get. Story coming out that I've heard is that LDs did a fantastic job of scaring the local population about planning laws changing. HS2 is a helping factor.

[steveT350C]

It is HS2 - my dad was interviewed by the Telegraph while out in Chesham this morning. Michael Gove also knocked on his door a couple of days ago...

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk...