The by-election thread
Discussion
Welshbeef said:
The Mad Monk said:
I asked a friend of mine who lives there, what the reason for the Tory defeat was, he just wrote back.....
HS2.
Does your friend know ALL 3 parties fully back HS2 - if they didn’t want HS2 Green Party should have been voted for but oddly their vote share dropped. HS2.
So HS2 is codswhollop
steveT350C said:
It is HS2 - my dad was interviewed by the Telegraph while out in Chesham this morning. Michael Gove also knocked on his door a couple of days ago...
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk...
Does your Dad understand all parties excl Greens have HS2 fully supported in their manifestos? https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk...
Ironically the previous incumbent was a vociferous opponent of HS2 despite being a Tory. She disagreed with the central party policy and was in least part responsible for the inclusion of a tunnel so that the train is going to go under the chilterns rather than through them.
As far as I can see the Lib Dems suggest a ‘halt’ construction while further studies take place - that ain’t going to happen as the project is already too far advanced.
As far as I can see the Lib Dems suggest a ‘halt’ construction while further studies take place - that ain’t going to happen as the project is already too far advanced.
Edited by rover 623gsi on Friday 18th June 16:24
and Alistair Heath on the Telegraph thinks the results was a revolt against Boris's "High tax, eco-extreme agenda"
Clearly not everyone can be right about the cause.
If I lived in Amersham I would have abstained or maybe written none of the above on the ballot paper. I would then have read all sorts of interpretations in the media about what it all meant, little of which would have covered my motivations.
Clearly not everyone can be right about the cause.
If I lived in Amersham I would have abstained or maybe written none of the above on the ballot paper. I would then have read all sorts of interpretations in the media about what it all meant, little of which would have covered my motivations.
Puggit said:
I grew up in the constituency (Little Chalfont) - it's as true blue as you can possibly get. Story coming out that I've heard is that LDs did a fantastic job of scaring the local population about planning laws changing. HS2 is a helping factor.
It seems people voted for a party that wanted to build just as many houses as the Tories, but more of them council, and still want to build HS2, just not quite so quickly.The great political debates of our age!
Christ's sake, Ed visited the constituency so many times some thought he was a resident!
It's a 'protest vote', simples.
Some on here have not lived long enough (well, one has, but he's a Lib-Dem supporter anyhow). I wonder how much of their budget they threw at this election?
I can recall plenty of so-called by-election 'shock results' over the years.
Back in 1962 the Liberals (as they used to be) seized Orpington from the government in their first by-election victory for four years.
They were dancing up and down back then when Eric Lubbock won the seat with a similar majority of nearly 8,000, a swing of nearly 22% away from the Tories. The number of Liberal MPs jumped to
7.
It was the first seat the Tory government had lost since the 1959 General Election in October of 1959 and ranked as its biggest humiliation since 1951, when the Tories got back in power.
Long term, it was realised it was nothing more than a protest vote.
Just like this one.
Unless the vaccine jabs have affected some voters!
It's a 'protest vote', simples.
Some on here have not lived long enough (well, one has, but he's a Lib-Dem supporter anyhow). I wonder how much of their budget they threw at this election?
I can recall plenty of so-called by-election 'shock results' over the years.
Back in 1962 the Liberals (as they used to be) seized Orpington from the government in their first by-election victory for four years.
They were dancing up and down back then when Eric Lubbock won the seat with a similar majority of nearly 8,000, a swing of nearly 22% away from the Tories. The number of Liberal MPs jumped to
7. It was the first seat the Tory government had lost since the 1959 General Election in October of 1959 and ranked as its biggest humiliation since 1951, when the Tories got back in power.
Long term, it was realised it was nothing more than a protest vote.
Just like this one.
Unless the vaccine jabs have affected some voters!
dandarez said:
Christ's sake, Ed visited the constituency so many times some thought he was a resident!
It's a 'protest vote', simples.
Some on here have not lived long enough (well, one has, but he's a Lib-Dem supporter anyhow). I wonder how much of their budget they threw at this election?
I can recall plenty of so-called by-election 'shock results' over the years.
Back in 1962 the Liberals (as they used to be) seized Orpington from the government in their first by-election victory for four years.
They were dancing up and down back then when Eric Lubbock won the seat with a similar majority of nearly 8,000, a swing of nearly 22% away from the Tories. The number of Liberal MPs jumped to 7.
It was the first seat the Tory government had lost since the 1959 General Election in October of 1959 and ranked as its biggest humiliation since 1951, when the Tories got back in power.
Long term, it was realised it was nothing more than a protest vote.
Just like this one.
Unless the vaccine jabs have affected some voters!
Protest to what?It's a 'protest vote', simples.
Some on here have not lived long enough (well, one has, but he's a Lib-Dem supporter anyhow). I wonder how much of their budget they threw at this election?
I can recall plenty of so-called by-election 'shock results' over the years.
Back in 1962 the Liberals (as they used to be) seized Orpington from the government in their first by-election victory for four years.
They were dancing up and down back then when Eric Lubbock won the seat with a similar majority of nearly 8,000, a swing of nearly 22% away from the Tories. The number of Liberal MPs jumped to
7. It was the first seat the Tory government had lost since the 1959 General Election in October of 1959 and ranked as its biggest humiliation since 1951, when the Tories got back in power.
Long term, it was realised it was nothing more than a protest vote.
Just like this one.
Unless the vaccine jabs have affected some voters!
We had the council elections only in May and Torys smashed everyone.
Protest a month later nope it’s something else.
Pan Pan Pan said:
Looks distinctly like tactical voting, as labour took so few votes, they lost their deposit.
But as mentioned before, Ed Davey must now look for a place that has two telephone boxes side by side, to give them enough space for their party conference
This new MP could quite possibly become leader in a year or two
You don't get that with the Tories or Labour. The greens try to big themselves up by having 2 joint leaders but the greens are just crap anyway
This is a massive chance for a new Lib Dem MP to prove herself, build up a following, become leader and even become Prime Minister in a few years
So long as she hasnt got skeletons in her closet such as a liking for slingshotting squirrels she will be fine
Edited by anonymoususer on Friday 18th June 20:13
Regardless of the tactical vote, this won’t be going back to the conservatives any time soon.
Something I hadn’t realised was that the proposed boundary changes are going to make quite a few safe Tory seats marginals.
There will be quite a few Tory MP’s in the south east who will be worried.
This is a massive defeat for the conservatives. No other way of spinning this .
Something I hadn’t realised was that the proposed boundary changes are going to make quite a few safe Tory seats marginals.
There will be quite a few Tory MP’s in the south east who will be worried.
This is a massive defeat for the conservatives. No other way of spinning this .
sugerbear said:
Regardless of the tactical vote, this won’t be going back to the conservatives any time soon.
Something I hadn’t realised was that the proposed boundary changes are going to make quite a few safe Tory seats marginals.
There will be quite a few Tory MP’s in the south east who will be worried.
This is a massive defeat for the conservatives. No other way of spinning this .
The libdems took votes away from both main parties. Who are they protesting against? As someone mentioned, they are strong on local issues and this may well have been a factor here. It seems clear though that no one knows the motivation for such a large swing in such a safe tory seat. It’s far from simple.Something I hadn’t realised was that the proposed boundary changes are going to make quite a few safe Tory seats marginals.
There will be quite a few Tory MP’s in the south east who will be worried.
This is a massive defeat for the conservatives. No other way of spinning this .
I can only talk with any knowledge about my own constituency, and I’ve been impressed by the libdem performance, with just a couple of seats on the local council. The tory group lied to the constituents, and, in addition, went back on promises as well as removing a public hall used by old people without offering alternatives. The libdems, smelling an advantage, started a push. And increased their share of the vote significantly.
Having obtained a limited amount of power, they behaved just as if they wanted to know what locals wanted, and what the council could do for them. Just like the tories did not. When a small group of tory voters went to see the then sitting tory MP to ask for help on a particular matter, he said it was nothing to do with him. He was prescient. It’s now nothing to do with him.
I agree: there will be quite a few tory MPs in the south east who will be worried, hopefully mine. And it's a massive defeat for the conservatives.
EDITED TO ADD: It would appear that the libdems viewed Amersham as the 51st seat winnable by them. My constituency, Mid Sussex, they rank it as 50th.
Edited by Derek Smith on Friday 18th June 21:59
The Mad Monk said:
Welshbeef said:
Does your friend know ALL 3 parties fully back HS2 - if they didn’t want HS2 Green Party should have been voted for but oddly their vote share dropped.
So HS2 is codswhollop
But it is the Tories that are pushing HS2 to completion.So HS2 is codswhollop
Tory
Liberal Ds
All have HS2 in their manifesto and have all voted for it in parliament.
Forums are in govt the budgets have been voted in and it’s going live by 2030.
b
hstewie said:
hstewie said: Can't say I blame him when you increase your seats by 8% overnight
Is it just me, or is this wall of stupid clip going to be replayed every time something bad happens to Ed? People called Ed should know better than to be associated with gimmicks.Edited by hidetheelephants on Saturday 19th June 21:40
hidetheelephants said:
bhstewie said:
hstewie said: Can't say I blame him when you increase your seats by 8% overnight
Is it just me, or is this wall of stupid clip going to be replayed every time something bad happens to Ed? People called Ed should know better than to be associated with gimmicks.anonymoususer said:
Edited by hidetheelephants on Saturday 19th June 01:56
Sound bites carved in stone and displayed like they were they 10 commandments. What was he thinking?
I don’t think anyone - even the two main parties - has done enough analysis to offer anything concrete on this yet.
It will be interesting to see whether a sense of alienation from the policy thrust of the party will have been a key reason for traditional Tory voters turning to the Lib Dems.
I have also heard anecdotally that there was a strong local backlash against the Tory candidate, which might go some way to explaining the disparity between the local election trends in May and this result 6 weeks later
It will be interesting to see whether a sense of alienation from the policy thrust of the party will have been a key reason for traditional Tory voters turning to the Lib Dems.
I have also heard anecdotally that there was a strong local backlash against the Tory candidate, which might go some way to explaining the disparity between the local election trends in May and this result 6 weeks later
ClaphamGT3 said:
I don’t think anyone - even the two main parties - has done enough analysis to offer anything concrete on this yet.
It will be interesting to see whether a sense of alienation from the policy thrust of the party will have been a key reason for traditional Tory voters turning to the Lib Dems.
I have also heard anecdotally that there was a strong local backlash against the Tory candidate, which might go some way to explaining the disparity between the local election trends in May and this result 6 weeks later
Wasn't there a trend against the tories in the true blue constituencies? I seem to remember it being dismissed as of no consequence in all the euphoria of continuing red wall voting.It will be interesting to see whether a sense of alienation from the policy thrust of the party will have been a key reason for traditional Tory voters turning to the Lib Dems.
I have also heard anecdotally that there was a strong local backlash against the Tory candidate, which might go some way to explaining the disparity between the local election trends in May and this result 6 weeks later
On the edge of my village there is a much frequented public golf course that is to be built over. There was general resentment, and a fair bit of pointing out that there we already have one of the lowest doctor/patient ratios in the country, and schools were already oversubscribed. Such concerns were dismissed contemptuously and newcomers continue to struggle to get a GP, get their kids into an uncrowded school, or get their teeth seen to.
But who cares? Perhaps the voters do?
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