The by-election thread
Discussion
bucksmanuk said:
I think it’s a good result, with the red wall falling “ooop North” and the Tories having their arses handed to them in Amersham, losing a 16,000 majority in the process, it’s a genuine kicking.
It tells the parties that they can’t treat any of their constituencies as a given/with contempt.
As above – a good day for politics.
Is it a good day for politics when a party candidate promises things utterly against the party’s manifesto? Specifically those two reasons I list were apparently what R4 pollsters are flagging as the main reasons for the switch. It tells the parties that they can’t treat any of their constituencies as a given/with contempt.
As above – a good day for politics.
What do Lib Dem’s stand for? Genuine question they have been utterly silent
Electro1980 said:
Stigproducts said:
Aside from the dramatic headline it is exceptional that Sit Keir and his merry band of nutters, jew haters, divs and nasty commies have brought forth a whole 622 votes.
622 - 1.6% of the vote
Extraordinary. This might have been bad timing for Boris and co with their illogical lock down extension that is clearly really starting to piss people off, but Labour is NOWHERE in capitalizing on this. They are utter toast.
Lib Dems have Labour to thank for their victory, and Chris Whitty - nothing they did. They are as mad and useless as the rest of them
Labour have historically bounced around 5%-15% of the vote. They lost 10% from the last election, but have had variable support.622 - 1.6% of the vote
Extraordinary. This might have been bad timing for Boris and co with their illogical lock down extension that is clearly really starting to piss people off, but Labour is NOWHERE in capitalizing on this. They are utter toast.
Lib Dems have Labour to thank for their victory, and Chris Whitty - nothing they did. They are as mad and useless as the rest of them
Tories lost 20% of their support.
In Hartlepool Labour lost 10% of their support.
This is entirely down to Tory losses and is 100% down to the incompetent s
t show of a PM we have.I am no stranger to surprise Lib Dem wins - taking what were thought to be safe Tory seats - but the last one I experienced was a tad distasteful. Nigel Jones was elected for the Lib Dems in Cheltenham in 1992.
Then, as I think is the case now, it was definitely not a case of the Lib Dems being thought to be the right answer. It was more a case of the Tory option being (in the minds of the majority of people who voted) the wrong answer.
The Lib Dem canvassing played on this extensively - painting a vote for Labour or the Green Party as being a wasted vote.
Then, as I think is the case now, it was definitely not a case of the Lib Dems being thought to be the right answer. It was more a case of the Tory option being (in the minds of the majority of people who voted) the wrong answer.
The Lib Dem canvassing played on this extensively - painting a vote for Labour or the Green Party as being a wasted vote.
I live in the constituency.
The reason for the LD win:
- Their massive leafleting campaign, they sent close to all the other parties combine
- Tactical voting....encouraged on the above leaflets
- A Remain constituency so no real like for Boris
- Local planning concerns (to house the extra population that the Lib Dems wanted under Freedom of Movement...you couldn't make it up)
- Lockdown extension/D Cummings rant
- By-election protest during a strong Conservative Government
- Very low turnout compared to normal
- A poor choice of Tory candidate
The reason for the LD win:
- Their massive leafleting campaign, they sent close to all the other parties combine
- Tactical voting....encouraged on the above leaflets
- A Remain constituency so no real like for Boris
- Local planning concerns (to house the extra population that the Lib Dems wanted under Freedom of Movement...you couldn't make it up)
- Lockdown extension/D Cummings rant
- By-election protest during a strong Conservative Government
- Very low turnout compared to normal
- A poor choice of Tory candidate
Vanden Saab said:
It has been so long since the Tories lost a by-election mid term it seems there are people are unaware that this used to be a regular event in former days. This was one of the very few constituencies where the Tory share of the vote reduced in 2019. It would normally return to the fold at a general election. Lets see what happens in Batley...Having said that this does seem to be another indication that usual voting patterns are breaking down to a degree.
Torys have kind of moved to the working mans vote and labour to the champagne socialists in London & Manchester. I'm certainly not a lib/dum voter, but would consider a tactical vote if there was a GE right now as I am so fked off with the nonsensical lockdown stuff, & sage apparently running the country together with wkcock & co. Would any other political party have done it better though?
Chance of my local tory MP getting the boot?? Probably zero.....
However, the upshot of this particular result will likely be yet more frustration to the planning 'system' that is utterly unfit for purpose & 'run' by the most bureaucratic busybody/NIMBY type people you're EVER likely to meet.
I pretty much give up with our politicians
ked off with the nonsensical lockdown stuff, & sage apparently running the country together with wkcock & co. Would any other political party have done it better though?Chance of my local tory MP getting the boot?? Probably zero.....
However, the upshot of this particular result will likely be yet more frustration to the planning 'system' that is utterly unfit for purpose & 'run' by the most bureaucratic busybody/NIMBY type people you're EVER likely to meet.
I pretty much give up with our politicians
Welshbeef said:
Torys have kind of moved to the working mans vote and labour to the champagne socialists in London & Manchester.
Boris flip-flops and doesn't really stand for anybody. His courting of gamoneers and red wallers was always going to come at some cost. What's amusing is watching Labour-hating Tory zealots defend Boris Johnson, whilst he turns his own party into New Labour for the 2020s and his back on the ideology they so desperately defend.
APontus said:
What's amusing is watching Labour-hating Tory zealots defend Boris Johnson, whilst he turns his own party into New Labour for the 2020s and his back on the ideology they so desperately defend.
Quite.- Levelling up
- Green
- Climate
- Low Carbon
- A more feminine world
- More gender neutral
Either way this is a good thing for politics as you need opposition.
vaud said:
On the topic of lockdowns, I'm not so sure it is a significant factor.
If I recall, the polling shows people in favour (70% overall and still 55%+ in the 18-30 bracket) - and clearly MPs voted massively in favour.
Anyway, we aren't really in any form of hard lockdown right now.
Have those figures been broken down regionally or by demographic? How does that overlay with this constituency?If I recall, the polling shows people in favour (70% overall and still 55%+ in the 18-30 bracket) - and clearly MPs voted massively in favour.
Anyway, we aren't really in any form of hard lockdown right now.
APontus said:
Have those figures been broken down regionally or by demographic? How does that overlay with this constituency?
I don't think they break it down - I think it was YouGov - when you take a medium sized sample (say 3000) it is statistically representative when aggregated but less so when you get to a single small area.I'd be surprised if the area was that different from the national unless there are specific local dynamics.
Hub said:
Yes, sounds like the Lib Dems really went for it, and a lot of tactical voting helped too.
The reasons cited (HS2, planning reform) will probably spook the government into toning down promised new bills such as the planning bill, where there was already backbench dissatisfaction. They want to deregulate planning, probably to please party donors - but it conflicts with politics at the local level. It is also a remain area so there could be some Brexit aspect to this too.
The thing about planning is that many commentators have been warning for years that falling home ownership is a ticking time bomb for the Conservatives. We don't build enough decent sized homes in areas where people want to live. A generation is then priced out of owning their own home as a result. They then have little stake in the status quo and so feel free to vote for quasi Marxists.The reasons cited (HS2, planning reform) will probably spook the government into toning down promised new bills such as the planning bill, where there was already backbench dissatisfaction. They want to deregulate planning, probably to please party donors - but it conflicts with politics at the local level. It is also a remain area so there could be some Brexit aspect to this too.
A catch 22 then really. Force through more housebuilding and lose votes. Don't build enough housing and enter slow decline.
bucksmanuk said:
3 things for me
I don’t think people realise how unpopular HS2 is in that neck of the woods, and also the house building that’s going on. My friends who live up the road in Missenden are seething about it.
No doubt there’s a great deal of being fed up with lockdowns too.
People increasingly don’t trust Boris. Maybe the ’19 Tory majority was a reflection of how much people distrusted Corbyn/McDonnell/Abbot rather than any profound admiration for Boris.
I would like to think it was a revolt against lockdown and it may have played a part.I don’t think people realise how unpopular HS2 is in that neck of the woods, and also the house building that’s going on. My friends who live up the road in Missenden are seething about it.
No doubt there’s a great deal of being fed up with lockdowns too.
People increasingly don’t trust Boris. Maybe the ’19 Tory majority was a reflection of how much people distrusted Corbyn/McDonnell/Abbot rather than any profound admiration for Boris.
Turnout was quite high for a by election though and I would have expected voters disillusioned by lockdown to stay at home rather than vote Lib-Dem (who have backed all lockdown measures).
Welshbeef said:
Oddly though
Lib Dem’s manifesto promising 300,000 houses affordable a year - no different to Tory really and has to mean they will be built in the same way.
Theoretical houses can be built on "brown field" sites away from middle class voters. Actual houses have to be built somewhere people want to live Lib Dem’s manifesto promising 300,000 houses affordable a year - no different to Tory really and has to mean they will be built in the same way.
witteringon said:
Never mind the result, where was the reporting?
Admittedly I am only a casual viewer of the BBC and ITV news, but I don't recall any mention of it yesterday, let alone any in depth report from the constituency.
I had completely forgotten it was happening! (Or is it me?)
Euro 2021 + Harry and Megs obvs Admittedly I am only a casual viewer of the BBC and ITV news, but I don't recall any mention of it yesterday, let alone any in depth report from the constituency.
I had completely forgotten it was happening! (Or is it me?)
Biker 1 said:
I'm certainly not a lib/dum voter, but would consider a tactical vote if there was a GE right now as I am so fked off with the nonsensical lockdown stuff, & sage apparently running the country together with wkcock & co.
I thought about registering a protest vote in the council elections but then decided I would be cutting off my nose to spite my face as my local (Tory) council is far less anti-motorist than most.ked off with the nonsensical lockdown stuff, & sage apparently running the country together with wkcock & co. In a by-election though?, yes I could see myself staying at home at present.
Adrian W said:
Its a mid term protest vote, wealthy people in that area wouldn't do anything to jeopardise their lifestyle at a general election, its just a kick in the nuts about HS2
My parents live in Amersham and I agree that the people will vote Lib Dem as a protest but would never actually want their policies if they imagined them implemented. I think many also furious with shutdowns and used this to express anger. Some other potentially relevant points:This area has a very large group of small business owners,
Since Covid lots of people have moved here from London, are staying with parents and may have voted.
Chesham is very different to the rest of the area and has a quickly growing Asian population.
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