Coronavirus : Early Days

Author
Discussion

MikeT66

2,680 posts

124 months

Wednesday 25th August 2021
quotequote all
I remember the images/news from China/Italy and wondering WTF was going on. Didn't seem real at the time... more like we'd been launched into a bizarre Hollywood disaster script. Enduring memories are the first time I went to the supermarket to be confronted with a queue of people snaking around the car park... and a one hour wait to get in. A few days later I braved the queue again to see the shelves decimated of anything canned/dried, and people shouting at others for having piles of stuff in their trolleys. I realised then how shallow our 'civilised' society is. People talked about the 'Blitz spirit', but in truth I didn't see much of it - people reduced to the core of self-preservation from what I could see. Also remember going out one day and there was no-one else around at all - I know I didn't exactly live in the centre of London, but it was always a busy town centre with people milling around. It was all a bit '28 Days Later'.

With no garden and a dark apartment, it certainly wasn't a good time - I know others enjoyed the change. We had (and still do) money worries from Mrs.T66 getting laid off and my wages getting hit; it felt like being on the dole in the 80's - all the time in the world, but no money and nowhere to go, it was a grey state of limbo, despite the hot weather.

A most unusual and surreal time. Even given where we are now, it's hard to fathom going back to those early days. I thought it would all be over by early summer...

cherryowen

Original Poster:

11,711 posts

204 months

Thursday 26th August 2021
quotequote all
8th February 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/chin...

said:
Gilead, a company that makes HIV drugs, has announced it will trial its drug remdesivir in the coronavirus outbreak. The drug was tested during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2018, but the Congolese authorities announced it was not sufficiently effective against the virus.

The new trial of remdesivir will be gold standard, investigating how well it works in both moderately and severely ill patients compared with others given a placebo.


https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-china-mainly-int...

said:
From the perspective of enforcing censorship, the taskforce has done a brilliant job. CCTV has been broadcasting how developing countries are "praising" China's efforts to contain the epidemic. However, since these are all countries that have taken huge amounts of loans from China, they are paying China back by praising its behaviors unconditionally.
"Praising" lockdowns scratchchin


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51429400

said:
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned that "trolls and conspiracy theories" are undermining their response to the new coronavirus.

WHO Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters that misinformation was "making the work of our heroic workers even harder".

More than 34,800 people have been infected with the new coronavirus worldwide, the vast majority in China.

There have been 723 deaths in China and one death abroad, in the Philippines.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7982445/C...

Includes video footage of people being forcibly removed from their homes in China


For clarity, much - if not all - of these reports from last year are new to me. Between Feb 2020 and lockdown #1, I just kept my head down. Aside from work, it was guitar practice (with lots of music theory), and watching YT vids of i) supercar drag races on a runway in Switzerland and ii) vintage watch restorations by the "Nekkid Watchmaker" .nuts



B'stard Child

28,418 posts

246 months

Friday 27th August 2021
quotequote all
Genuine Barn Find said:
first i recall was talking to a client back in October 2019.
He’d been on business in China not far from ‘ground zero’. He said he’d flown home, then out to Chicago where he started to feel unwell. He then said he was laid out in his hotel room for 5 days with what felt like a really bad case of of the flu. This was 4 months before news even started to trickle through properly. China evidently were dealing with covid a long time before they officially were.
Mrs BC and I had a holiday in South Vietnam in Nov 2018 (enjoyed the food and the country a lot) so in Nov 2019 went to North Vietnam. The difference in mask wearing in public was a surprise - South in 2018 hardly anyone - North in 2019 virtually everyone.

Back end of the 14 days Mrs BC picked up something that made her fatigued, moaning about being too hot or too cold and was whinging about the food having no taste or smell but that was about it

We flew home I hate plane journeys at the best of times - got home and I got hit (metaphorically) by a bug that packed a punch like freight train - Body temperature soared up and down (one min sweating next frozen) - dreadful hacking cough - what I could eat had no taste or smell - my whole body ached and for only the second time in my life I felt the best place I could be (and the only place I wanted to be) was in bed and for three days that's where I stayed

After that little run in with some nasty little virus it took probably 2 - 3 months before I could walk up the stairs without a pause half way.

I'm mid 50's 5 ft 13 and 12 Stone - I have no known medical issues

Mrs BC is similar age but is a PORG - has a few minor medical issues

I can understand why it was safe to take off a mask when seated in the pub as it clearly circulates above the 5ft mark

Only in Jan 20 did I start to recognise what I think I had picked up.





XCP

16,916 posts

228 months

Friday 27th August 2021
quotequote all
I work in funerals. I can remember working non stop and watching the council digging a mass grave near one local crematoria, which was running at full tilt. I just worked and slept didn't have any energy and just had to keep going.
I was frightened I might catch Covid but just felt that I had a job which had to be done.

cherryowen

Original Poster:

11,711 posts

204 months

Saturday 28th August 2021
quotequote all
9th February 2020

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1226459760...

4th case identified in UK confirmed by Whitty


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo-confirms-fo...

said:
The patient has been transferred to a specialist NHS centre at The Royal Free Hospital, and we are now using robust infection control measures to prevent any possible further spread of the virus. The NHS is extremely well prepared to manage these cases and treat them, and we are working quickly to identify any further contacts the patient has had.
scratchchin


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-asia-china-51...

said:
Thousands of people stuck on a cruise ship in Hong Kong for four days have been allowed to disembark after tests for coronavirus came back negative.

Some 3,600 passengers and crew on the World Dream ship were quarantined amid fears some staff could have contracted the virus on a previous voyage.

Another cruise ship where dozens of cases have been confirmed remains in quarantine off Japan.
Diamond Princess


https://twitter.com/drtedros/status/12265994815352...

W.H.O. head off to China

Another call to all countries to step up their preparedness for the arrival of the virus


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/02/breaking-...

said:
Dr. George Diaz: About a week into his course he got worse developed pneumonia. At that point given the reports we had gotten out of China… At that point we elected to give him… the experimental Remdesivir, antiviral medication. And within 24 hours he improved significantly. This was quite encouraging and he improved and thereafter remained without fever and felt much better. Over the next few days he improved to where we thought he could be discharged at home under the care of the local health district.

cherryowen

Original Poster:

11,711 posts

204 months

Monday 30th August 2021
quotequote all
10th February 2020

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1226768197...

said:
The Department of Health says the incidence or transmission of novel Coronavirus constitutes "a serious and imminent threat to public health"


https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/122678133...

said:
Our CFR estimates place 2019-nCoV in the same range as the flu pandemics of the 20th century. Which pandemic (1918, 57 or 68) is currently unclear. And whether the global impact is comparable depends on what proportion of people are eventually infected.


https://news.sky.com/story/british-man-feared-to-b...

said:
A British man who became infected with coronavirus in Singapore appears to be linked to at least seven other confirmed cases in England, France and Spain - prompting fears he may be a so-called "super spreader" of the deadly virus.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51442314

said:
There have been more than 40,000 cases of the virus globally, mostly in China. The total number of deaths in China is now 908.


But, reported the same day:-

https://nextshark.com/chen-qiushi-journalist-missi...

said:
A Chinese citizen journalist has reportedly gone missing after exposing Wuhan’s “urgent epidemic situation” involving the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in a YouTube video posted last week.
And embedded in the above article:-

https://nextshark.com/coronavirus-nurse-china-9000... (Dated 27th January 2020)

said:
Woman Claiming to Be a Wuhan Nurse Alleges Over 90,000 Are Infected With Coronavirus in Viral Video (video now deleted.....)


MaxSo said:
Chap from Imperial College London (involved with the study I’ve posted a few times today) just on Radio 4...

Basically said that he reckons potentially 472 thousand people in the UK could die if it turns into an epidemic here.

He said 60-70% of people could be infected, with 1% case fatality rate.

(Transcript excerpt as follows):-

“More likely we are in the early stages of a global pandemic”

“We can’t assume we can stop it”

“For seasonal flu, we get about maybe 15% of the population of the country infected each year on average by a new strain - so it’s not overwhelming.”

“For this virus, potentially everybody is susceptible and so we could be taking about an epidemic which maybe infects 60 - 80 % of the population - so the size will be much larger.”

“The second thing is just severity ....what proportion of people might die.... could be as high as about 1% of everybody who gets infected might die”.

He said what I though he said.

It’s actually worse than I heard before because I thought he 60 - 70 %

Bloody hell.

So, to recap:

- UK population: 68 million

- An “epidemic which maybe infects 60-80%” could infect up to 54.5 million in the UK

- “about 1% of everybody who gets infected might die” ...1% of 54.5 million is 544 thousand people in the UK.
The first instance of Ferguson's wildly inaccurate and inflammatory prediction?







coanda

2,642 posts

190 months

Tuesday 31st August 2021
quotequote all
Please make sure to record pneumothorax' posts until he stopped posting...for whatever reason.

Also, in case you weren't aware: https://covidreference.com/timeline Hopefully it won't cause any extreme reactions from forum members.

As an aside, Covid-19 has been proven at least to have been in France and probably Germany in December 2019 so there is a very good chance it was present in the UK in limited form before Feb 2020. I'm fairly certain I caught it in London in November 2019. Can't be proven now but all the symptoms were present. I have managed not to catch anything of note in the past 20 months.


isaldiri

18,591 posts

168 months

Tuesday 31st August 2021
quotequote all
cherryowen][b said:


MaxSo said:
It’s actually worse than I heard before because I thought he 60 - 70 %

Bloody hell.

So, to recap:

- UK population: 68 million

- An “epidemic which maybe infects 60-80%” could infect up to 54.5 million in the UK

- “about 1% of everybody who gets infected might die” ...1% of 54.5 million is 544 thousand people in the UK.
The first instance of Ferguson's wildly inaccurate and inflammatory prediction?
I hope you are finding the gleeful doommongering by MaxSo (who later turned into nffcforever iirc) and a few other posters from the initial covid thread entertaining....

And tbh that wasn't one of Ferguson's worst clangers. Broadly he probably wasn't completely wrong either in terms of overall numbers potentially dead assuming no treatment/vaccines were found but just over a much longer time period. Infection fatality rate for the UK ball park would be ~0.6%, possibly a bit higher, early estimates from the beginning of feb at 1% was actually surprisingly accurate given the uncertainty involved in the data.

The issue was more one of timing and/or model assumptions and reporting. A single big wave of 70-80% being infected (model assumed no change in restrictions or behaviour which was completely unrealistic) just wasn't going to happen as behaviour would change as people started dying and/or the government started going ballistic on fear promotion - exactly what we did actually see.

croyde

22,933 posts

230 months

Tuesday 31st August 2021
quotequote all
As a previous poster also said, my tiny flat is dark and claustrophobic. Thank heavens I couldn't WFH and drove to work everyday on empty roads. A rush hour commute of over an hour in London became 20 minutes.

Despite government rules and restrictions that mentally destroyed all three of my children, the first year student confined to halls, my autistic boy with no help and my younger lad who has completely gone off the rails since the schools closed, as well as pushing my ex wife further down the road of alcoholism as she struggled with her business going down the pan, all but the youngest eventually caught this killer disease.

All got through it ok, even my immunosuppressed ex wife due to cancer treatment (stopped during Covid btw).

My own freelance career has been taken away from me but I still earn doing a job I despise. So I'm lucky.

To say I'm angry with the government, is a big understatement.

Complacency at the beginning, followed by weird and nonsensical laws which made no sense yet so many followed blindly.

This and the vote for Brexit has made me realise how thick a lot of the UK population really are.

RSTurboPaul

10,391 posts

258 months

Tuesday 31st August 2021
quotequote all
coanda said:
Please make sure to record pneumothorax' posts until he stopped posting...for whatever reason.
+1

TheJimi

24,997 posts

243 months

Tuesday 31st August 2021
quotequote all
isaldiri said:
cherryowen][b said:


MaxSo said:
It’s actually worse than I heard before because I thought he 60 - 70 %

Bloody hell.

So, to recap:

- UK population: 68 million

- An “epidemic which maybe infects 60-80%” could infect up to 54.5 million in the UK

- “about 1% of everybody who gets infected might die” ...1% of 54.5 million is 544 thousand people in the UK.
The first instance of Ferguson's wildly inaccurate and inflammatory prediction?
I hope you are finding the gleeful doommongering by MaxSo (who later turned into nffcforever iirc) and a few other posters from the initial covid thread entertaining....

And tbh that wasn't one of Ferguson's worst clangers. Broadly he probably wasn't completely wrong either in terms of overall numbers potentially dead assuming no treatment/vaccines were found but just over a much longer time period. Infection fatality rate for the UK ball park would be ~0.6%, possibly a bit higher, early estimates from the beginning of feb at 1% was actually surprisingly accurate given the uncertainty involved in the data.

The issue was more one of timing and/or model assumptions and reporting. A single big wave of 70-80% being infected (model assumed no change in restrictions or behaviour which was completely unrealistic) just wasn't going to happen as behaviour would change as people started dying and/or the government started going ballistic on fear promotion - exactly what we did actually see.
MaxSo was absolutely beside himself, practically giddy. Ditto V6pushfit - those two really jumped off the page at me.

RSTurboPaul

10,391 posts

258 months

Tuesday 31st August 2021
quotequote all
coanda said:
Also, in case you weren't aware: https://covidreference.com/timeline Hopefully it won't cause any extreme reactions from forum members.
Thanks for that link, I'd not seen it before.


Am I right in thinking there was also a Twitter account re-posting (just?) Govt tweets from one year ago on the given date, as a 'look back with perspective' type of thing?

Boringvolvodriver

8,974 posts

43 months

Tuesday 31st August 2021
quotequote all
TheJimi said:
MaxSo was absolutely beside himself, practically giddy. Ditto V6pushfit - those two really jumped off the page at me.
V6Pushfit appears to be still at it. His posts on the anti vaxx thread read to me that he is very much in favour of vacccinating every body for ever. And if one dares to say otherwise, then his arguments get interesting!

Yuxi

648 posts

189 months

Tuesday 31st August 2021
quotequote all
I live in China, I flew back to China on Januray 29th 2020, on the way to Heathrow it came on the radio that BA had suspended all flights to China but my flight was with China Southern so no problem. The lady at check in asked me if I really wanted to go, I said yes, I live and work there.
I flew Heathrow to Zhengzhou then Zhengzhou to Chongqing, Zhengzhou airport was deserted, about 5% of normal flights flew through it that day.
First few days back were fairly normal, I had a few days before work started. Then it started, 4 weeks in my apartment, vegetables delivered by the government every few days, after a week I could leave the community for an hour every 2 days to go shopping. Only a few supermarkets open, nothing else, no traffic, nobody on the street. After 4 weeks we all returned to work, so early March, within a couple of months most things were back to normal.
Im glad I missed what happened in the UK.

cherryowen

Original Poster:

11,711 posts

204 months

Tuesday 31st August 2021
quotequote all
RSTurboPaul said:
coanda said:
Please make sure to record pneumothorax' posts until he stopped posting...for whatever reason.
+1
I have done, and will continue to do.

My notes are currently up to 7th March 2020, and pneumothorax only started posting in the thread on the 4th March.



RSTurboPaul

10,391 posts

258 months

Tuesday 31st August 2021
quotequote all
cherryowen said:
RSTurboPaul said:
coanda said:
Please make sure to record pneumothorax' posts until he stopped posting...for whatever reason.
+1
I have done, and will continue to do.

My notes are currently up to 7th March 2020, and pneumothorax only started posting in the thread on the 4th March.
Thanks for taking the time to put this together, it is much appreciated. smile

Make sure you keep back up copies elsewhere as well - would be a total PITA to redo!

cherryowen

Original Poster:

11,711 posts

204 months

Tuesday 31st August 2021
quotequote all
11th February 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51459210?__twitt...

said:
A British man linked to 11 coronavirus cases has spoken for the first time, saying he has "fully recovered" from the illness.

Steve Walsh, who remains quarantined in hospital, says his thoughts are with others who have contracted the virus.

He said his family have been asked to isolate themselves "as a precaution".
and

said:
Speaking on a visit to Birmingham, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the public had "every reason to be confident and calm" about the threat of the virus, adding: "We have got a fantastic NHS".
and

said:
The World Health Organization said it now has a name for the new coronavirus - Covid-19


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

Although the document relates to a 'flu pandemic, page 21 is of interest:-

pp.21 said:
All social distance measures depend on compliance by the population which, in turn, depends on the social acceptability of the measures. Without good behavioural research on these it is difficult to predict the impact of such measures being deployed in a future pandemic.
Is this part of the reason why behavioural scientists started getting seats on SAGE?



coanda

2,642 posts

190 months

Wednesday 1st September 2021
quotequote all
cherryowen said:
11th February 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51459210?__twitt...

said:
A British man linked to 11 coronavirus cases has spoken for the first time, saying he has "fully recovered" from the illness.

Steve Walsh, who remains quarantined in hospital, says his thoughts are with others who have contracted the virus.

He said his family have been asked to isolate themselves "as a precaution".
and

said:
Speaking on a visit to Birmingham, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the public had "every reason to be confident and calm" about the threat of the virus, adding: "We have got a fantastic NHS".
and

said:
The World Health Organization said it now has a name for the new coronavirus - Covid-19


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

Although the document relates to a 'flu pandemic, page 21 is of interest:-

pp.21 said:
All social distance measures depend on compliance by the population which, in turn, depends on the social acceptability of the measures. Without good behavioural research on these it is difficult to predict the impact of such measures being deployed in a future pandemic.
Is this part of the reason why behavioural scientists started getting seats on SAGE?
The UK is apparently particularly good at social behaviour psychology and 'nudging'. There should be little doubt that some of the most important people on SAGE, as far as the government are concerned, have been the social behaviour people. These are the people that have caused most change in the population - actioned through advertising. I wouldn't be surprised if they were also pretty crucial in signing off the data that was presented to the public at the government death by powerpoints. Some of those things were chock full of very carefully (and not so carefully) manufactured information. Even now, they are careful on the wording to make sure people aren't told certain things or are told certain things in certain ways so as not to affect things like vaccine uptake. See recent twitter screenshots in the covid cure worse than disease from lead data scientist on covid dashboard.

Over the last 21 months it's been really interesting to see how this forum and others like it have seen members become more segregated, more openly offensive, more divisive - generally more angry. And you can probably put that down to around 5% of the regular contributors as well as some interesting things going on with mod and admin (not that you'd know on PH - the only forum I know of that doesn't show if a user is mod or admin).

Propaganda starts wars, hides wars, loses wars and wins wars. Question is, will the end justify the means.

Thanks for picking up on pneumo's posts.


Edited by coanda on Wednesday 1st September 01:43

coanda

2,642 posts

190 months

Wednesday 1st September 2021
quotequote all
RSTurboPaul said:
coanda said:
Also, in case you weren't aware: https://covidreference.com/timeline Hopefully it won't cause any extreme reactions from forum members.
Thanks for that link, I'd not seen it before.


Am I right in thinking there was also a Twitter account re-posting (just?) Govt tweets from one year ago on the given date, as a 'look back with perspective' type of thing?
Sorry, I wouldn't know - I don't use twitter if I can at all help it.

cherryowen

Original Poster:

11,711 posts

204 months

Wednesday 1st September 2021
quotequote all
12th February 2020

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/phe-novel-coron...

(Above article dated 7th Feb, but posted on PH 12th Feb)

said:
The novel coronavirus diagnostic test developed by Public Health England (PHE) is being rolled out to laboratories across the UK starting on Monday 10 February 2020. The increase in diagnostic capacity from one laboratory in London to 12 labs over the coming weeks, will accelerate the country’s testing capabilities.

The UK was one of the first countries outside China to have assured testing capability for the novel coronavirus. At PHE’s laboratories in London, it has the capacity to process samples from more than 100 people a day.

Now, to ensure that the country is prepared for further cases and to speed up the time from a sample being taken to a result in the lab, the test will be carried out by trained scientists across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. This increases testing capacity to more than 1,000 people a day for England.



https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviru...

said:
Globally
43 103 confirmed (2560 new)
China
42 708 confirmed (2484 new)
7333 severe (849 new)
1017 deaths (108 new)
Outside of China
395 confirmed (76 new)
24 countries
1 death


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51481469

said:
A woman who flew into London from China a few days ago is being treated for coronavirus, bringing the total number of UK cases to nine.

Chief medical officer Chris Whitty said the woman was transferred to a specialist NHS centre at Guy's and St Thomas' in central London.

Prof Whitty said the patient had contracted the virus in China.


https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/har...

said:
The number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have continued to surge inside China, sickening tens of thousands, with a death toll of more than 1,000. But outside the Asian giant the numbers remain a fraction of that, a trend Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch views with suspicion. Lipsitch thinks it is just a matter of time before the virus spreads widely internationally, which means nations so far only lightly hit should prepare for its eventual arrival in force and what may seem like the worst flu season in modern times. Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and head of the School’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, talked to the Gazette about recent developments in the outbreak and provided a look ahead.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEtvhMgauq8

said:
CDC: We Absolutely Assume The Reported Cases in China Are An Underestimate.

60% of cremations are from deaths at home. Not included in the official figures.