CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 15)
Discussion
djc206 said:
....
New York’s current stats aren’t particularly bad, in fact the 7 day average deaths in Florida are ~6 times that of New York adjusted for population, I’d imagine because of aforementioned concentration of “biffers”. Love that word btw, not heard it in ages!
Need to careful with the current Florida death figures - they have some reporting backlogs, which is overstating the current death rates on some sources. New York’s current stats aren’t particularly bad, in fact the 7 day average deaths in Florida are ~6 times that of New York adjusted for population, I’d imagine because of aforementioned concentration of “biffers”. Love that word btw, not heard it in ages!
Brave Fart said:
Little plug for Talk Radio: this was discussed on the Mike Graham show this morning, when he featured the brilliant Laura Dodsworth. Apparently the government is not allowing any debate or questions, it's a straight vote on renewal (or not). However, schedules 16, 21 and 22 are being removed - these are the ones dealing with school closures, detention of infected persons, and banning gatherings.
Laura thought it very likely that renewal will be approved, which will take us to April 2022 I think, when the whole Act is due to expire (it originally had a two year life).
So no more "cancelling Christmas" and funerals and weddings?Laura thought it very likely that renewal will be approved, which will take us to April 2022 I think, when the whole Act is due to expire (it originally had a two year life).
Appalling the govt not allowing debate. Unsurprising but appalling.
isaldiri said:
Given covid very obviously affects older people more (quick jab up more young people or ban them), why wouldn't you compare age adjusted total mortality rates to figure out how each state might have done wrt to actual success in handling the pandemic?
Because a state that is basically a nursing home shouldn’t react in the same as one with a younger demographic for the very reason you gave. In the same way that Mississippi as the poorest and one of the unhealthiest states shouldn’t have been so blasé because it doesn’t have the resources to cope. I love the way Americans stand up for personal freedoms, I really do but I wish they’d sometimes show a little more regard for their fellow Americans. For a religious nation they can be quite selfish.djc206 said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Need to careful with the current Florida death figures - they have some reporting backlogs, which is overstating the current death rates on some sources.
By a factor of 6 and for over 2 months?The population is pretty much the same for Florida vs New York state. And if you look at the death rate over the last two weeks using Worldometers (which most people consider a pretty authoritative source) you will see there are almost the same. Whereas if you look at some of the other sources (published for example by the New York Times), they show the current Florida death rates several times higher due to the reporting backlog.
I only picked on up on this as I couldn't understand the why some sources were showing such a high death rate in Florida when cases there have crashed - so you would expect deaths to follow the same pattern after a 2-3 week lag.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/flor...
EddieSteadyGo said:
Pretty much yes.
The population is pretty much the same for Florida vs New York state. And if you look at the death rate over the last two weeks using Worldometers (which most people consider a pretty authoritative source) you will see there are almost the same. Whereas if you look at some of the other sources (published for example by the New York Times), they show the current Florida death rates several times higher due to the reporting backlog.
I only picked on up on this as I couldn't understand the why some sources were showing such a high death rate in Florida when cases there have crashed - so you would expect deaths to follow the same pattern after a 2-3 week lag.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/flor...
So these deaths will have almost certainly occurred in the August/September wave when Florida was setting records, so that graph is going to look really bad once the data is adjusted? In essence what you’re saying is the current Florida daily deaths are probably broadly similar to New York’s but in September Florida would have been a lot worse that currently shown in the data?The population is pretty much the same for Florida vs New York state. And if you look at the death rate over the last two weeks using Worldometers (which most people consider a pretty authoritative source) you will see there are almost the same. Whereas if you look at some of the other sources (published for example by the New York Times), they show the current Florida death rates several times higher due to the reporting backlog.
I only picked on up on this as I couldn't understand the why some sources were showing such a high death rate in Florida when cases there have crashed - so you would expect deaths to follow the same pattern after a 2-3 week lag.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/flor...
I think another part of the US stats being a bit difficult to reconcile is that they’ve largely given up on testing. Idaho’s positivity rate for example is ~80%, how is that even possible?
djc206 said:
... In essence what you’re saying is the current Florida daily deaths are probably broadly similar to New York’s but in September Florida would have been a lot worse that currently shown in the data?...
Pretty much - I think once they sort out their data, we will see it was much worse in Florida during August but much better now.The time it was really bad was in Aug and early Sep when there were reports about their hospitals being full - at that point they were dealing with a hospitalisation rate much higher than we had during our Jan peak.
But now cases there are crashing and reaching very low levels.
CarCrazyDad said:
Brave Fart said:
Little plug for Talk Radio: this was discussed on the Mike Graham show this morning, when he featured the brilliant Laura Dodsworth. Apparently the government is not allowing any debate or questions, it's a straight vote on renewal (or not). However, schedules 16, 21 and 22 are being removed - these are the ones dealing with school closures, detention of infected persons, and banning gatherings.
Laura thought it very likely that renewal will be approved, which will take us to April 2022 I think, when the whole Act is due to expire (it originally had a two year life).
So no more "cancelling Christmas" and funerals and weddings?Laura thought it very likely that renewal will be approved, which will take us to April 2022 I think, when the whole Act is due to expire (it originally had a two year life).
Appalling the govt not allowing debate. Unsurprising but appalling.
https://twitter.com/GillianMcKeith/status/14504710...
EddieSteadyGo said:
Fair enough. From the ONS survey last week there is somewhere around 8% of "School year 7 to 11" age group with a covid infection for the week ending 9th Oct. And infections rates in this age group seem to be continuing at the same pace for the last week or so.
So I think 8% prevalence probably equates to around 5% per week (bearing in mind they will test +ve for longer than a week). So that gives 10% of the group infected in the last two weeks alone. Infections can't continue at that pace for many more weeks, before they crash, just as they are doing in my children's school currently.
That is exactly why I don't think it is plausible that the suggested levels are possible. So using your numbers with that 70% infected, that means 2 weeks ago 60% were infected. So I think 8% prevalence probably equates to around 5% per week (bearing in mind they will test +ve for longer than a week). So that gives 10% of the group infected in the last two weeks alone. Infections can't continue at that pace for many more weeks, before they crash, just as they are doing in my children's school currently.
Out of the remaining 40% susceptible, 1/8 of all of them were then newly infected at increased rates 3x of a further month behind? At 50+% infected and not susceptible the transmission rates should long ago have been falling rather than suddenly increasing by large amounts.
CarCrazyDad said:
Brave Fart said:
Little plug for Talk Radio: this was discussed on the Mike Graham show this morning, when he featured the brilliant Laura Dodsworth. Apparently the government is not allowing any debate or questions, it's a straight vote on renewal (or not). However, schedules 16, 21 and 22 are being removed - these are the ones dealing with school closures, detention of infected persons, and banning gatherings.
Laura thought it very likely that renewal will be approved, which will take us to April 2022 I think, when the whole Act is due to expire (it originally had a two year life).
So no more "cancelling Christmas" and funerals and weddings?Laura thought it very likely that renewal will be approved, which will take us to April 2022 I think, when the whole Act is due to expire (it originally had a two year life).
Appalling the govt not allowing debate. Unsurprising but appalling.
Essentially, there is no lockdown power in the Coronavirus Act. The power comes (arguably) from the Health Protection Regulations. If Sajid Javid wants to cancel Christmas, he can.
The authority for the lockdown regulations comes from a 1984 law, the Public Health Act, section 45C. Some argue that the government has deliberately misused the 1984 Act for its own purposes, because the 1984 Act allows for very little Parliamentary scrutiny. This government has, as you say, been appalling in its attitude towards Parliamentary democracy.
scottyp123 said:
Did anyone else know its the renewal vote on the corona restrictions today?
I even asked on the actual legislation thread on SPL the other day when the vote was and didn't get an answer. Absolutely nothing in the news about it and I only found out through a random Youtube video.
Looking at a largely empty House, you'd be forgiven for thinking the vast majority of MPs didn't know about it, either.I even asked on the actual legislation thread on SPL the other day when the vote was and didn't get an answer. Absolutely nothing in the news about it and I only found out through a random Youtube video.
Still, they were given a whole 90 minutes to 'debate' extension of the Coronavirus Act, much of which was interrupted by the Deputy Speaker telling MPs to get a move on.
It's got all the hallmarks of being ushered through without much by way of resistance.
isaldiri said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Fair enough. From the ONS survey last week there is somewhere around 8% of "School year 7 to 11" age group with a covid infection for the week ending 9th Oct. And infections rates in this age group seem to be continuing at the same pace for the last week or so.
So I think 8% prevalence probably equates to around 5% per week (bearing in mind they will test +ve for longer than a week). So that gives 10% of the group infected in the last two weeks alone. Infections can't continue at that pace for many more weeks, before they crash, just as they are doing in my children's school currently.
That is exactly why I don't think it is plausible that the suggested levels are possible. So using your numbers with that 70% infected, that means 2 weeks ago 60% were infected. So I think 8% prevalence probably equates to around 5% per week (bearing in mind they will test +ve for longer than a week). So that gives 10% of the group infected in the last two weeks alone. Infections can't continue at that pace for many more weeks, before they crash, just as they are doing in my children's school currently.
Out of the remaining 40% susceptible, 1/8 of all of them were then newly infected at increased rates 3x of a further month behind? At 50+% infected and not susceptible the transmission rates should long ago have been falling rather than suddenly increasing by large amounts.
SS2. said:
Looking at a largely empty House, you'd be forgiven for thinking the vast majority of MPs didn't know about it, either.
Still, they were given a whole 90 minutes to 'debate' extension of the Coronavirus Act, much of which was interrupted by the Deputy Speaker telling MPs to get a move on.
It's got all the hallmarks of being ushered through without much by way of resistance.
Which is what the Labour MP was saying- we deserve better as the government are acting in an authoritarian manner.Still, they were given a whole 90 minutes to 'debate' extension of the Coronavirus Act, much of which was interrupted by the Deputy Speaker telling MPs to get a move on.
It's got all the hallmarks of being ushered through without much by way of resistance.
David Davies was making some good points as was Steve Baker but it go thorough on the nod
Boringvolvodriver said:
SS2. said:
Looking at a largely empty House, you'd be forgiven for thinking the vast majority of MPs didn't know about it, either.
Still, they were given a whole 90 minutes to 'debate' extension of the Coronavirus Act, much of which was interrupted by the Deputy Speaker telling MPs to get a move on.
It's got all the hallmarks of being ushered through without much by way of resistance.
Which is what the Labour MP was saying- we deserve better as the government are acting in an authoritarian manner.Still, they were given a whole 90 minutes to 'debate' extension of the Coronavirus Act, much of which was interrupted by the Deputy Speaker telling MPs to get a move on.
It's got all the hallmarks of being ushered through without much by way of resistance.
David Davies was making some good points as was Steve Baker but it go thorough on the nod
There's still hope.
Brave Fart said:
Oh yes, they can still do that CCD. Because they can use the Health Protection Regulations. These are essentially whatever the government feels like doing. That's where we saw the "funerals can't be more than x people" and "you cannot leave your home without reasonable excuse" stuff. They are what allowed Boris to tell us that "pubs must close immediately" on March 23rd 2020.
Essentially, there is no lockdown power in the Coronavirus Act. The power comes (arguably) from the Health Protection Regulations. If Sajid Javid wants to cancel Christmas, he can.
The authority for the lockdown regulations comes from a 1984 law, the Public Health Act, section 45C. Some argue that the government has deliberately misused the 1984 Act for its own purposes, because the 1984 Act allows for very little Parliamentary scrutiny. This government has, as you say, been appalling in its attitude towards Parliamentary democracy.
If I understood it correctly, that was the point that Steve Baker was making - he says it needs an overhaul- question is will the Health Secretary get round to looking at? Essentially, there is no lockdown power in the Coronavirus Act. The power comes (arguably) from the Health Protection Regulations. If Sajid Javid wants to cancel Christmas, he can.
The authority for the lockdown regulations comes from a 1984 law, the Public Health Act, section 45C. Some argue that the government has deliberately misused the 1984 Act for its own purposes, because the 1984 Act allows for very little Parliamentary scrutiny. This government has, as you say, been appalling in its attitude towards Parliamentary democracy.
LeighW said:
CarCrazyDad said:
Brave Fart said:
Little plug for Talk Radio: this was discussed on the Mike Graham show this morning, when he featured the brilliant Laura Dodsworth. Apparently the government is not allowing any debate or questions, it's a straight vote on renewal (or not). However, schedules 16, 21 and 22 are being removed - these are the ones dealing with school closures, detention of infected persons, and banning gatherings.
Laura thought it very likely that renewal will be approved, which will take us to April 2022 I think, when the whole Act is due to expire (it originally had a two year life).
So no more "cancelling Christmas" and funerals and weddings?Laura thought it very likely that renewal will be approved, which will take us to April 2022 I think, when the whole Act is due to expire (it originally had a two year life).
Appalling the govt not allowing debate. Unsurprising but appalling.
https://twitter.com/GillianMcKeith/status/14504710...
Brave Fart said:
Oh yes, they can still do that CCD. Because they can use the Health Protection Regulations. These are essentially whatever the government feels like doing. That's where we saw the "funerals can't be more than x people" and "you cannot leave your home without reasonable excuse" stuff. They are what allowed Boris to tell us that "pubs must close immediately" on March 23rd 2020.
Essentially, there is no lockdown power in the Coronavirus Act. The power comes (arguably) from the Health Protection Regulations. If Sajid Javid wants to cancel Christmas, he can.
The authority for the lockdown regulations comes from a 1984 law, the Public Health Act, section 45C. Some argue that the government has deliberately misused the 1984 Act for its own purposes, because the 1984 Act allows for very little Parliamentary scrutiny. This government has, as you say, been appalling in its attitude towards Parliamentary democracy.
Short summary: Everything you do can be stopped at the whim of a minister. And likely will be.Essentially, there is no lockdown power in the Coronavirus Act. The power comes (arguably) from the Health Protection Regulations. If Sajid Javid wants to cancel Christmas, he can.
The authority for the lockdown regulations comes from a 1984 law, the Public Health Act, section 45C. Some argue that the government has deliberately misused the 1984 Act for its own purposes, because the 1984 Act allows for very little Parliamentary scrutiny. This government has, as you say, been appalling in its attitude towards Parliamentary democracy.
rodericb said:
LeighW said:
Panic over. Boris has been with our favourite philanthropist Bill this morning, discussing how we can Build Back Better. So that's ok. The comments are 'interesting'...
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1450414167...
So Bill is going to help Boris implement a green industrial revolution. Bill really is a man of many talents! He's also the largest private owner of farm land in the USA. He'll help the UK lower their CO2 by hooking you all up with some plant-based meat from his other investments: Beyond Meat and Impossible Food. Pollution from shipping between countries when the boat is in international waters doesn't count so it's win win!https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1450414167...
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