Russia/Ukraine/USA crisis.
Discussion
Wacky Racer said:
If I was Putin, I'd be concerned at losing 7 minutes somewhere.Panamax said:
Dear Mr Putin, please stop what you're doing. And anyway, why would you want to start trouble when it's so cold and wintry outside?
"Go away, or I'll cut off your gas."
Oh, I see what you mean - do carry on.
If he cut off the gas it would be financial suicide for Russia, all of Europe would immediately put in place other options with a view to getting supplies from elsewhere cutting Russia off from the market permanently."Go away, or I'll cut off your gas."
Oh, I see what you mean - do carry on.
I do agree though if Russia invades there is no possibility of a limited land war with them, Ukraine would be left to their fate. We'd probably apply sanctions for 12 months but thats all.
I'm not totally convinced on Russia actually having the intent to invade, certainly not Ukraine wholesale. Perhaps a limited incursion into the already Russian aligned Donetsk and Luhansk quasi-states to shore them up, but I doubt there's much appetite for an overt conflict, and one which would doubtlessly be far bloodier and far more difficult than Russia than the last state-on-state war they fought with Georgia (which also didn't go particularly well for them in reality).
I wouldn't dismiss it as Kremlin posturing- we all know the current Russian administration has a propensity to act in fairly unpredictable and irrational ways (or at least ways that seem unpredictable and irrational from our Western perspectives) but there's over a million active and reserve military personnel in Ukraine, and they do retain a modest-sized but pretty capable air force as well as theatre ballistic missiles, surface-to-air missiles and modern tanks. There will be nothing like the inequality of capability there has been between Russian forces in their recent conflicts.
I wouldn't dismiss it as Kremlin posturing- we all know the current Russian administration has a propensity to act in fairly unpredictable and irrational ways (or at least ways that seem unpredictable and irrational from our Western perspectives) but there's over a million active and reserve military personnel in Ukraine, and they do retain a modest-sized but pretty capable air force as well as theatre ballistic missiles, surface-to-air missiles and modern tanks. There will be nothing like the inequality of capability there has been between Russian forces in their recent conflicts.
Ivan stewart said:
Meanwhile China continues with genicide For its ethnic minorities and economic colonialism of the 3rd world .
Do you have anything to say on the topic at hand?HM-2 said:
I'm not totally convinced on Russia actually having the intent to invade, certainly not Ukraine wholesale. Perhaps a limited incursion into the already Russian aligned Donetsk and Luhansk quasi-states to shore them up, but I doubt there's much appetite for an overt conflict, and one which would doubtlessly be far bloodier and far more difficult than Russia than the last state-on-state war they fought with Georgia (which also didn't go particularly well for them in reality).
I wouldn't dismiss it as Kremlin posturing- we all know the current Russian administration has a propensity to act in fairly unpredictable and irrational ways (or at least ways that seem unpredictable and irrational from our Western perspectives) but there's over a million active and reserve military personnel in Ukraine, and they do retain a modest-sized but pretty capable air force as well as theatre ballistic missiles, surface-to-air missiles and modern tanks. There will be nothing like the inequality of capability there has been between Russian forces in their recent conflicts.
I believe Putin’s spokesman was quite clear the other week what Putin was after (and why he is presumably accepting Biden’s call): some kind of absolute lock on Ukrainian acceding to NATO (and therefore confirmation that Ukraine is within Russia’s sphere of interest).I wouldn't dismiss it as Kremlin posturing- we all know the current Russian administration has a propensity to act in fairly unpredictable and irrational ways (or at least ways that seem unpredictable and irrational from our Western perspectives) but there's over a million active and reserve military personnel in Ukraine, and they do retain a modest-sized but pretty capable air force as well as theatre ballistic missiles, surface-to-air missiles and modern tanks. There will be nothing like the inequality of capability there has been between Russian forces in their recent conflicts.
Ivan stewart said:
Meanwhile China continues with genicide For its ethnic minorities and economic colonialism of the 3rd world .
Do you have anything to say on the topic at hand?I assume Putin has got his eye on the US midterms and believes Biden is weak and may be worried about getting weaker and this is the optimum moment of leverage.
He doesn’t do full hot wars and certainly not against NATO.
Could be wrong but I doubt there's much (any) domestic appetite for a conflict from Russia. Been there many times and know lots of Russian folk, but none that would actually be there if given a choice. It's not like the Soviet days when patriotism was a big thing. Nowadays it's all about personal gain and trying to be elsewhere.
Ridgemont said:
I believe Putin’s spokesman was quite clear the other week what Putin was after (and why he is presumably accepting Biden’s call): some kind of absolute lock on Ukrainian acceding to NATO (and therefore confirmation that Ukraine is within Russia’s sphere of interest).
I assume Putin has got his eye on the US midterms and believes Biden is weak and may be worried about getting weaker and this is the optimum moment of leverage.
He doesn’t do full hot wars and certainly not against NATO.
Which is another reason he won't actually invade Ukraine. I assume Putin has got his eye on the US midterms and believes Biden is weak and may be worried about getting weaker and this is the optimum moment of leverage.
He doesn’t do full hot wars and certainly not against NATO.
If he does, then there goes any kind of buffer between Russia and NATO.
Ironically, despite it being fairly tactically and operationally successful, the Russian invasion of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine (let's call it what it is and stop pretending that the People's Republics are anything more than Russian puppet quasistates) they were a strategic disaster; they hardened the post-Euromaidan governments attitudes towards Russia and accelerated the drive towards NATO. Though Ukraine isn't a NATO member state, I think he's missed the boat on some degree of accession; after all, there's a mutual defence pact in place now and domestic support for NATO membership is pretty high.
At the end of the day, Putin must know as well as anyone does that NATO doesn't actually represent any direct threat against Russia. His concern is not maintaining the integrity or security of the state, but maintaining and expanding the sphere of influence. This is one area that slightly more cohesive EU defence policy could probably work wonders on as well, especially given that the US seems to be so consumed in self-harm since circa early 2017.
HM-2 said:
I'm not totally convinced on Russia actually having the intent to invade, certainly not Ukraine wholesale. Perhaps a limited incursion into the already Russian aligned Donetsk and Luhansk quasi-states to shore them up, but I doubt there's much appetite for an overt conflict, and one which would doubtlessly be far bloodier and far more difficult than Russia than the last state-on-state war they fought with Georgia (which also didn't go particularly well for them in reality).
I wouldn't dismiss it as Kremlin posturing- we all know the current Russian administration has a propensity to act in fairly unpredictable and irrational ways (or at least ways that seem unpredictable and irrational from our Western perspectives) but there's over a million active and reserve military personnel in Ukraine, and they do retain a modest-sized but pretty capable air force as well as theatre ballistic missiles, surface-to-air missiles and modern tanks. There will be nothing like the inequality of capability there has been between Russian forces in their recent conflicts.
Is that 1 million actual people though? Or is it like the Afghanistan army of what, 400,000? that turned out to be 399,997 fake expense claims by 3 generals?I wouldn't dismiss it as Kremlin posturing- we all know the current Russian administration has a propensity to act in fairly unpredictable and irrational ways (or at least ways that seem unpredictable and irrational from our Western perspectives) but there's over a million active and reserve military personnel in Ukraine, and they do retain a modest-sized but pretty capable air force as well as theatre ballistic missiles, surface-to-air missiles and modern tanks. There will be nothing like the inequality of capability there has been between Russian forces in their recent conflicts.
Russia are already de-facto occupying counties with no real censure, but let's hope it is just posturing, given the suffering that arises from conflict.
Looking at it from Russia's perspective, they have said for years that they feel surrounded by Nato countries and if Ukraine joined Nato it would be the final straw.
I suppose it depends what side of the fence you are on, but Putin's proved many times he's a shrewd old fox.
I can see both sides point of view.
I have a feeling this could get nasty in a couple of months, but hopefully not.
I suppose it depends what side of the fence you are on, but Putin's proved many times he's a shrewd old fox.
I can see both sides point of view.
I have a feeling this could get nasty in a couple of months, but hopefully not.
Sheets Tabuer said:
Panamax said:
Dear Mr Putin, please stop what you're doing. And anyway, why would you want to start trouble when it's so cold and wintry outside?
"Go away, or I'll cut off your gas."
Oh, I see what you mean - do carry on.
If he cut off the gas it would be financial suicide for Russia, all of Europe would immediately put in place other options with a view to getting supplies from elsewhere cutting Russia off from the market permanently."Go away, or I'll cut off your gas."
Oh, I see what you mean - do carry on.
I do agree though if Russia invades there is no possibility of a limited land war with them, Ukraine would be left to their fate. We'd probably apply sanctions for 12 months but thats all.
J6542 said:
Didn’t the West say they would military support Ukraine if they gave up their nukes that they had when they became independent after the break up off the USSR?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_AssurancesRussia signed it along with US/U.K. + assorted soviet satellites.
That’s never stopped Putin believing it had to be rowed back on. Sergey Lavrov claimed/lied that it only pertained to nuclear attack.
Never trust the Russians. Whatever their hue they only respect 1 thing. Superior force.
What exactly would be the advantage to the existing NATO members of extending membership to Ukraine, or Georgia for that matter?
All I see is catastrophe. NATO’s credibility is already damaged by the inclusion of Estonia, etc . . . even Poland. Back when I was a teenage Fusilier in the then West Germany, with a rifle older than I was (manufactured 1957 from memory), there was no doubt we’d fight to protect Bonn or Brussels. (And die within the first 24 hours or so). And risk nuclear annihilation.
Now? To defend, say, a town in Eastern Estonia that has a majority Russian population from the, er, Russians? More doubtful, and that’s weakened the credibility of the whole organisation. Which, paradoxically, increases the chance of all out war . . . if you’re going to play chicken, make sure the other guy really believes you’re not going to swerve!
All I see is catastrophe. NATO’s credibility is already damaged by the inclusion of Estonia, etc . . . even Poland. Back when I was a teenage Fusilier in the then West Germany, with a rifle older than I was (manufactured 1957 from memory), there was no doubt we’d fight to protect Bonn or Brussels. (And die within the first 24 hours or so). And risk nuclear annihilation.
Now? To defend, say, a town in Eastern Estonia that has a majority Russian population from the, er, Russians? More doubtful, and that’s weakened the credibility of the whole organisation. Which, paradoxically, increases the chance of all out war . . . if you’re going to play chicken, make sure the other guy really believes you’re not going to swerve!
And, of course, Putin doesn’t want conflict, he wants a peace treaty. A peace treaty that recognises that Crimea is now part of Russia.
But we don’t want that, as it would be a diplomatic triumph for Putin. So, instead, we’ll keep the conflict simmering whilst pretending that there is some conceivable set of circumstances in which Ukraine recovers sovereignty in Crimea. The reality is actually a stronger version of what we tell the sovereign state of Serbia vis a vis Kosovo: ”suck it up princess, it’s gone . . .”.
But we don’t want that, as it would be a diplomatic triumph for Putin. So, instead, we’ll keep the conflict simmering whilst pretending that there is some conceivable set of circumstances in which Ukraine recovers sovereignty in Crimea. The reality is actually a stronger version of what we tell the sovereign state of Serbia vis a vis Kosovo: ”suck it up princess, it’s gone . . .”.
Octoposse said:
And, of course, Putin doesn’t want conflict, he wants a peace treaty. A peace treaty that recognises that Crimea is now part of Russia.
But we don’t want that, as it would be a diplomatic triumph for Putin. So, instead, we’ll keep the conflict simmering whilst pretending that there is some conceivable set of circumstances in which Ukraine recovers sovereignty in Crimea. The reality is actually a stronger version of what we tell the sovereign state of Serbia vis a vis Kosovo: ”suck it up princess, it’s gone . . .”.
Ukraine, the Baltics, and the visegrad group all hold one thing in common: a refusal to accede to reentering a Russian sphere of control. Putin is expert at salami tactics. He sliced off Georgia. He’s doing a job on Ukraine. He almost certainly given the chance will try the same with Es/Li/La. But we don’t want that, as it would be a diplomatic triumph for Putin. So, instead, we’ll keep the conflict simmering whilst pretending that there is some conceivable set of circumstances in which Ukraine recovers sovereignty in Crimea. The reality is actually a stronger version of what we tell the sovereign state of Serbia vis a vis Kosovo: ”suck it up princess, it’s gone . . .”.
Whats the point of no return? Riga? Talinn? Warsaw? East Berlin?
Putin has regarded it his mission to roll back a catastrophic failure of Russian power in the early nineties, so as to reclaim what he perceives is Russia’s rightful and neglected role as a global hegemon.
The fact you were parked in West Germany with a 1950s rifle was precisely because Stalin got away with a game of bluff with Churchill and Roosevelt’ at Yalta in ‘45 and condemned millions of Eastern European’s to Russian supremacy. You are kidding yourself if you think Putin wouldn’t happily see another several generations of U.K. and US infantry men looking east.
The nineties delivered a mixed bag but the utter failure of Russia in Eastern Europe (now obscured by petro cash) was a triumph for the west. The last thing we need is to feed the bear by allowing it back into the orchard to hunt for honey.
Arguably the alternative is to let the French and Germans manage it within the context of the EU. Given that the Germans are armed with broom handles and the French are gallivanting around the Sahel and loathe the Americans, NATO is the nearest thing we have to a guarantor of peace and Putin won’t mess with it. Because of the US. Unless he senses Biden is just about to make a Category A mistake. Which may be possible. I would hope the State Dept is reining him in but after Afghanistan (and I suspect Putin laughed himself silly over that) I wouldn’t trust that. Biden is obsessed with China. Fair enough but if he’s not careful he is going to find as big a problem (and *we* definitely will if the US refuses to engage) in Europe.
HM-2 said:
I wouldn't dismiss it as Kremlin posturing- we all know the current Russian administration has a propensity to act in fairly unpredictable and irrational ways (or at least ways that seem unpredictable and irrational from our Western perspectives) but there's over a million active and reserve military personnel in Ukraine, and they do retain a modest-sized but pretty capable air force as well as theatre ballistic missiles, surface-to-air missiles and modern tanks. There will be nothing like the inequality of capability there has been between Russian forces in their recent conflicts.
That seems a fair assessment, but where were all these active military personnel/materiel when Crimea was annexed?The Russians have a track record of invading and holding areas like this before they even know they've been invaded. They just walk right in during the night, assimilate loads of defectors, and set up shop before most people even realise what's happened.
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