Russia/Ukraine/USA crisis.

[Sheets Tabuer]

Problem is 9 out of 10 Ukrainians hate Russia with a passion, bit harder when most of the population own a gun and can't stand you.

I just can't see it working politically or economically for Russia, sure there were sanctions over crimea but nothing like what would come if they invaded.

I cant see this as anything other than posturing, does Russia even have the infrastructure to occupy a country yhr size of Ukraine?

Certainly interesting times.

[Sheets Tabuer]

But then again the official twitter feed of Ukraine posts this

[RichFN2]

MrMan001 said:

That seems a fair assessment, but where were all these active military personnel/materiel when Crimea was annexed?

The Russians have a track record of invading and holding areas like this before they even know they've been invaded. They just walk right in during the night, assimilate loads of defectors, and set up shop before most people even realise what's happened.

At that stage the Ukrainian army was on its knees, using old Soviet tanks etc that were falling apart and the military funding was going straight to corrupt officials. Russia knew Ukraine didn't stand a chance.

Also Crimea had been preparing for a move away from Ukraine with the public voting for independence, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the population assisted in some way.

[coanda]

RichFN2 said:

MrMan001 said:

That seems a fair assessment, but where were all these active military personnel/materiel when Crimea was annexed?

The Russians have a track record of invading and holding areas like this before they even know they've been invaded. They just walk right in during the night, assimilate loads of defectors, and set up shop before most people even realise what's happened.

At that stage the Ukrainian army was on its knees, using old Soviet tanks etc that were falling apart and the military funding was going straight to corrupt officials. Russia knew Ukraine didn't stand a chance.

Also Crimea had been preparing for a move away from Ukraine with the public voting for independence, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the population assisted in some way.

Yes, there was lots of groundwork in doling out russian passports and promoting russia in those areas. Still happening.

[coanda]

Sheets Tabuer said:

Problem is 9 out of 10 Ukrainians hate Russia with a passion, bit harder when most of the population own a gun and can't stand you.

I just can't see it working politically or economically for Russia, sure there were sanctions over crimea but nothing like what would come if they invaded.

I cant see this as anything other than posturing, does Russia even have the infrastructure to occupy a country yhr size of Ukraine?

Certainly interesting times.

They don't want all of Ukraine, they just want the bits they want and to leave Ukraine crippled and unable to take it back.

[Byker28i]

Tucker Carlsons show last night was pushing Putins view




https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/...

Not the first time he's done this.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/nov/26/tuck...

[Octoposse]

coanda said:

They don't want all of Ukraine, they just want the bits they want and to leave Ukraine crippled and unable to take it back.

Which is the bits with majority Russian populations who, on the whole, want to be Russian. The same people who elected Yanukovych as President - whose overthrow (for which we were cheerleaders) sparked this whole tragedy.

[Earthdweller]

Ridgemont said:

Ukraine, the Baltics, and the visegrad group all hold one thing in common: a refusal to accede to reentering a Russian sphere of control. Putin is expert at salami tactics. He sliced off Georgia. He’s doing a job on Ukraine. He almost certainly given the chance will try the same with Es/Li/La.
Whats the point of no return? Riga? Talinn? Warsaw? East Berlin?

Putin has regarded it his mission to roll back a catastrophic failure of Russian power in the early nineties, so as to reclaim what he perceives is Russia’s rightful and neglected role as a global hegemon.

The fact you were parked in West Germany with a 1950s rifle was precisely because Stalin got away with a game of bluff with Churchill and Roosevelt’ at Yalta in ‘45 and condemned millions of Eastern European’s to Russian supremacy. You are kidding yourself if you think Putin wouldn’t happily see another several generations of U.K. and US infantry men looking east.

The nineties delivered a mixed bag but the utter failure of Russia in Eastern Europe (now obscured by petro cash) was a triumph for the west. The last thing we need is to feed the bear by allowing it back into the orchard to hunt for honey.

Arguably the alternative is to let the French and Germans manage it within the context of the EU. Given that the Germans are armed with broom handles and the French are gallivanting around the Sahel and loathe the Americans, NATO is the nearest thing we have to a guarantor of peace and Putin won’t mess with it. Because of the US. Unless he senses Biden is just about to make a Category A mistake. Which may be possible. I would hope the State Dept is reining him in but after Afghanistan (and I suspect Putin laughed himself silly over that) I wouldn’t trust that. Biden is obsessed with China. Fair enough but if he’s not careful he is going to find as big a problem (and *we* definitely will if the US refuses to engage) in Europe.

Interesting post and I think you have it nailed on there

It all depends on what Putin thinks Biden will do, the EU is powerless and an observer

The messages coming out of the US are incredibly mixed from the hawks that want to throw the 82nd Airborne in to those saying it’s Europe’s problem leave them to it

As we know the last two times the US left Europe to until their hand was forced

The Balkans are looking a bit tasty at the moment as well as China, Iran and Russia

I think whether tanks roll or not is down to Biden’s stance and as yet nothing concrete has come out of the “summit” beyond the US saying “IF” then we “MAY”

Interesting times

[Panamax]

Sheets Tabuer said:

all of Europe would immediately put in place other options with a view to getting supplies from elsewhere cutting Russia off from the market permanently.

Where are these "supplies from elsewhere" magically going to appear from?

In case you hadn't noticed wholesale gas prices have rocketed this year due to shortages of supply, which is what gives Putin his trump card!

It's precisely why the whole thing is taking place at the start of winter - when western Europe is crying out for Russian gas.

[Earthdweller]

Panamax said:

Sheets Tabuer said:

all of Europe would immediately put in place other options with a view to getting supplies from elsewhere cutting Russia off from the market permanently.

Where are these "supplies from elsewhere" magically going to appear from?

In case you hadn't noticed wholesale gas prices have rocketed this year due to shortages of supply, which is what gives Putin his trump card!

It's precisely why the whole thing is taking place at the start of winter - when western Europe is crying out for Russian gas.

Indeed, just as the new German coalition has decided to stop mining coal and move completely away from fossil fuels and nuclear power

Europe is racing headlong into fuel poverty and dependency on others which is madness

[hidetheelephants]

Octoposse said:

coanda said:

They don't want all of Ukraine, they just want the bits they want and to leave Ukraine crippled and unable to take it back.

Which is the bits with majority Russian populations who, on the whole, want to be Russian. The same people who elected Yanukovych as President - whose overthrow (for which we were cheerleaders) sparked this whole tragedy.

They choose to live in a country that's not Russia, there's nothing particularly compelling keeping them from migrating(especially now Volodya's given them all russian passports) yet they don't; could it be that Russia is a corrupt backward sthole and they know exactly which side their toast is buttered on, like many expat communities they bh and moan but rarely go back?

[emperorburger]

Earthdweller said:

It all depends on what Putin thinks Biden will do, the EU is powerless and an observer

Sleepy Joe is a busted flush. Basically it's sanction central and very disapproving press conferences if Russia go in.

[5 In a Row]

Byker28i said:

Tucker Carlsons show last night was pushing Putins view




https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/...

Not the first time he's done this.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/nov/26/tuck...

The GOP have really gone nuts, haven't they.
When I was growing up the US in general, and the Republicans in particular, were very anti-communist/Russia but they've clearly come round to the idea of dictatorships!

[Earthdweller]

https://twitter.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1468613...

So there we have it … Biden’s response “no obligation to defend Ukraine .. so won’t do it unilaterally

Asked if he will put troops on ground if Russia invades Ukraine, @POTUS tells us if it were a NATO ally, US would have obligation to defend under article 5, but because Ukraine not part of NATO, US won’t unilaterally put US troops on ground.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/14686196...

"The idea the United States is going to unilaterally use force to confront Russia invading Ukraine is not in the cards right now," President Biden says, adding he is "absolutely confident" President Putin got his message about invading Ukraine.

Edited by Earthdweller on Wednesday 8th December 17:16

[emperorburger]

Earthdweller said:

https://twitter.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1468613...

So there we have it … Biden’s response “no obligation to defend Ukraine .. so won’t do it unilaterally

Fair play to Biden, at least he is setting expectations. Putin will be in no doubt that he will be on the naughty step if they invade.

[Murph7355]

Earthdweller said:

https://twitter.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1468613...

So there we have it … Biden’s response “no obligation to defend Ukraine .. so won’t do it unilaterally

Asked if he will put troops on ground if Russia invades Ukraine, @POTUS tells us if it were a NATO ally, US would have obligation to defend under article 5, but because Ukraine not part of NATO, US won’t unilaterally put US troops on ground.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/14686196...

"The idea the United States is going to unilaterally use force to confront Russia invading Ukraine is not in the cards right now," President Biden says, adding he is "absolutely confident" President Putin got his message about invading Ukraine.

Edited by Earthdweller on Wednesday 8th December 17:16

"Unilaterally" is probably banging the NATO subscriptions angle I would think too.

AIUI the big interest for Putin in that region is Black Sea access.

Nobody will do anything.

[Octoposse]

hidetheelephants said:

Octoposse said:

coanda said:

They don't want all of Ukraine, they just want the bits they want and to leave Ukraine crippled and unable to take it back.

Which is the bits with majority Russian populations who, on the whole, want to be Russian. The same people who elected Yanukovych as President - whose overthrow (for which we were cheerleaders) sparked this whole tragedy.

They choose to live in a country that's not Russia, there's nothing particularly compelling keeping them from migrating(especially now Volodya's given them all russian passports) yet they don't; could it be that Russia is a corrupt backward sthole and they know exactly which side their toast is buttered on, like many expat communities they bh and moan but rarely go back?

Ah, ”**** go home”, and ethnic cleansing as a solution?

Of course, if you were born in Crimea and are older than 67, you were born in Russia. And you could easily be the third, fourth . . . eighth generation. Sevastopol, for example, is a Russian city by any possible yardstick, and always has been.

[Ridgemont]

Murph7355 said:

Earthdweller said:

https://twitter.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1468613...

So there we have it … Biden’s response “no obligation to defend Ukraine .. so won’t do it unilaterally

Asked if he will put troops on ground if Russia invades Ukraine, @POTUS tells us if it were a NATO ally, US would have obligation to defend under article 5, but because Ukraine not part of NATO, US won’t unilaterally put US troops on ground.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/14686196...

"The idea the United States is going to unilaterally use force to confront Russia invading Ukraine is not in the cards right now," President Biden says, adding he is "absolutely confident" President Putin got his message about invading Ukraine.

Edited by Earthdweller on Wednesday 8th December 17:16

"Unilaterally" is probably banging the NATO subscriptions angle I would think too.

AIUI the big interest for Putin in that region is Black Sea access.

Nobody will do anything.

Not so sure.
Biden has said ‘no obligation unless NATO’.
Earlier this year at the June NATO summit in Brussels NATO reiterated that as per the Budapest agreement “Ukraine would become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process and Ukraine's right to determine its own future and foreign policy, of course without outside interference”.

I’d say Putin will look at that as a deadline. Traditionally Ukraine has relatively low polling for joining NATO. That’s now up to 70 odd %.

Ukraine was claiming a couple of weeks ago they were aware of ‘internal pro Russian coup actors’.

Much as I don’t want to sound pessimistic I wonder if Biden has practically confirmed to Putin that he needs to act and it isn’t just a ‘grab an extra slice beyond the Donbass’... for those with long memories Russia went into Afghanistan on Christmas in 1979...

[Earthdweller]

Ridgemont said:

Murph7355 said:

Earthdweller said:

https://twitter.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1468613...

So there we have it … Biden’s response “no obligation to defend Ukraine .. so won’t do it unilaterally

Asked if he will put troops on ground if Russia invades Ukraine, @POTUS tells us if it were a NATO ally, US would have obligation to defend under article 5, but because Ukraine not part of NATO, US won’t unilaterally put US troops on ground.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/14686196...

"The idea the United States is going to unilaterally use force to confront Russia invading Ukraine is not in the cards right now," President Biden says, adding he is "absolutely confident" President Putin got his message about invading Ukraine.

Edited by Earthdweller on Wednesday 8th December 17:16

"Unilaterally" is probably banging the NATO subscriptions angle I would think too.

AIUI the big interest for Putin in that region is Black Sea access.

Nobody will do anything.

Not so sure.
Biden has said ‘no obligation unless NATO’.
Earlier this year at the June NATO summit in Brussels NATO reiterated that as per the Budapest agreement “Ukraine would become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process and Ukraine's right to determine its own future and foreign policy, of course without outside interference”.

I’d say Putin will look at that as a deadline. Traditionally Ukraine has relatively low polling for joining NATO. That’s now up to 70 odd %.

Ukraine was claiming a couple of weeks ago they were aware of ‘internal pro Russian coup actors’.

Much as I don’t want to sound pessimistic I wonder if Biden has practically confirmed to Putin that he needs to act and it isn’t just a ‘grab an extra slice beyond the Donbass’... for those with long memories Russia went into Afghanistan on Christmas in 1979...

I’m not sure he’d get unanimity in NATO for military action

Some European member states are 100% reliant on Russian energy and even Germany is 50%

And Turkey .. well I can’t see them agreeing with their links to Russia and hostility to the US

I think it would be fractured and only a few “might” step up

I’m sure the Baltic states would rather not raise their heads above the parapet

Which could destroy NATO

I’m sure some counties would rather keep
the NATO powder dry in case they are attacked

And sanctions ?

Well, unless you’re going to enforce them which risks military conflict

I wonder if Putin would consider it an act of economic warfare and a hostile act ?

In my mind Ukraine is on its own

[amgmcqueen]

If Putin wanted to invade Ukraine there has never been a better time. Biden is so weak.

The west will do absolutely fk all especially with China backing Russia. It won't happen though.