Russia/Ukraine/USA crisis.

[bloomen]

Wacky Racer said:

Not all that.

I do recommend Gorbachev's tribute album to his late wife. It's rather lovely.

[J210]

Some of The Russian MRE kits are 7 years out of date.

Obviously they last for years but some tinned in 2013!

[C G]

bobbylondonuk said:

Where did this idea that Putin is aiming to take over the capital and the rest of Ukraine come from?

My guess is that he doesn’t want to go all in because it will mean huge destruction and loss of lives. This puts him in an awkward position.

If he says go time, the whole place will be flattened in a few days and thousands will die. So why is he holding back and getting sucker punched all over the place?

The media propaganda is brilliant so far, but realistically Ukraine has no chance and it’s people are heroes in waiting.

Agreed and I think I posted something similar.

Feels like Kyiv was a distraction, or intended to be.

However, doesn't explain the lack of apparent progress elsewhere. Unless that's the Ukrainian and Western ally propaganda machine working to perfection.

[hyphen]

bobbylondonuk said:

...The media propaganda is brilliant so far, but realistically Ukraine has no chance and it’s people are heroes in waiting.

The Russians may occupy, but will they ever make the people their own?

Unlikely, and any Russian Army person in Ukraine will always be at risk of being shot from a nearby window, vehicles loaded with explosives and so on. The resistance army in Ukraine will be kept in cash and arms by the west.

Biden from the start has been talking about a long game.

[Electro1980]

Register1 said:

Electro1980 said:

HM-2 said:

China will gladly fk Russia six ways to Sunday if they feel they can get away with it. They've already left him out in the rain having tentatively backed his invasion then immediately decried it and refused to support him in the UN.

I’m hoping China will come around soon and stop this. They are the one country that could now stop him.

They (China) have no intention of getting involved on either side.
Positively staying neutral.
They won't be helping Russia.
Yes, they need buy gas from Russia, but that was a deal planned 12 months ago.

I’m not talking about getting involved, I’m talking about Xi calling Putin and saying “stop this fking about. You’re disrupting our businesses. Get back in your box or we will bring all hell to bare on you”. They may not want to get involved, but if Putin turns the rest of the world to a pile of slag then China won’t have much of a market for plastic tat and cheap electronics.

[bloomen]

C G said:

Something doesn't quite add up here.

I think there must be a lot of disinformation out there, from both sides.

No doubt at all about that. We have unprecedented amounts of info and it's no doubt debased and spun to an unprecedented extent.

I'm taking it all in. I'm not actually believing any of it. We may get some actual facts some time in the far future.

[hyphen]

Electro1980 said:

I’m not talking about getting involved, I’m talking about Xi calling Putin and saying “stop this fking about. You’re disrupting our businesses. Get back in your box or we will bring all hell to bare on you”. They may not want to get involved, but if Putin turns the rest of the world to a pile of slag then China won’t have much of a market for plastic tat and cheap electronics.

I think they will find other things to keep them occupied.

[CraigyMc]

bobbylondonuk said:

Where did this idea that Putin is aiming to take over the capital and the rest of Ukraine come from?

From the taking of the airports and the big convoy of armour 25 miles from Kiev.

[bobbylondonuk]

hyphen said:

bobbylondonuk said:

...The media propaganda is brilliant so far, but realistically Ukraine has no chance and it’s people are heroes in waiting.

The Russians may occupy, but will they ever make the people their own?

Unlikely, and any Russian Army person in Ukraine will always be at risk of being shot from a nearby window, vehicles loaded with explosives and so on. The resistance army in Ukraine will be kept in cash and arms by the west.

Biden from the start has been talking about months and not days.

I don’t think Russia wants to stay. I think they want Ukraine to wave parle and agree neutrality. Putin knows all too well that being an occupational force is suicidal

[m3jappa]

C G said:

Something doesn't quite add up here.

I think there must be a lot of disinformation out there, from both sides.

I totally agree. Us plebs will never know.

I find it odd how all of a sudden this has all come about, dominating the media, most western nations sanctioning russia and even individuals and supplying all manor of weaponry to Ukraine.

I stopped believing the median governments about 18mths ago. I still don't believe them now tbh.

[HM-2]

bobbylondonuk said:

Where did this idea that Putin is aiming to take over the capital and the rest of Ukraine come from?

The fact that it's the only way he will be able to wrestle control of the country out of the hands of its current leadership, a key requirement to completing his objectives?

Do you always ask really silly questions, or is it just reserved for this thread?

[Pupp]

Puggit said:

DAVEVO9 said:

How bad are things compared to the Cuban missile crisis?

Not even in the same chapter. That was fingers hovering over the button time.

Possibly. However, that was played out far less publicly and immediately, with an associated far lesser potential, in my view, for miscalculation driven by extraneous ‘noise’.

• If* there have been drone strikes in Russia, facilitated by Ukraine partners, then that seems inevitably to be viewed as an escalation.

That convoy has to be dismantled; or wholesale destruction of cities is going to occur. Either way, the barbarity scale is barely registering currently against the ‘11’ clipping that is on the cards unless some miraculous defenestration of Vlad happens (from his windowless room).

Uneasy it is

[CraigyMc]

Well gentlemen, now that the contrarian wibble merchants have appeared for the evening, I'll leave for a bit. Toodle pip!

[faa77]

Dingu said:

king arthur said:

I totally agree FWIW. What I fear is seeing the kinds of things in the coming days that push us over that line.

If the kinds of things such as giving Ukraine aid, sanctioning Russia and condemning them pushes it to nuclear then it is inevitable anyway. It’s just a matter of when the line in the sand is drawn.

This

Interestingly if he is a nutter and just wants to use nukes one would expect him to do it soon. The longer he delays, the less-likely he is.

[bloomen]

bobbylondonuk said:

Where did this idea that Putin is aiming to take over the capital and the rest of Ukraine come from?

The idea was delivered in public by the man himself - the bizarre speech drooling on about de nazifying and demilitarising and how Ukraine is not a nation and not a people. He's now acting on that delusion.

There's no mystery or 4D chess as far as I can tell.

[jesusbuiltmycar]

Derek Smith said:

At the moment, all the west seems to be doing is using sanctions and supplying arms. That, surely, was to be expected, although perhaps not the current degree. He has the armour, fire power and manpower to defeat Ukraine militarily. The problem is that it might cause even more problems for him. I can't see China turning on Russia, but Putin will be in a weak position when negotiating deals. India depends on the west to a signigicant degree and might possibly join everyone (almost) else.

I can't see an option for Ukraine in the short/mid term. Even a stalemate is beyond all hope.

Who is going to knock Putin from his perch and replace him? They'll be confronted by the same problems. They could not pull out, dust the place down and apologise. Ukraine would want reparations, possibly even Crimea.

I'm of an age where I can remember Russian military equipment being a class leader, or so we were told. Their aircraft were talked of in hushed tones, and everyone knew that if they wanted to take Western Europe, all NATO could do was delay the advance a few days at best. The past four days has convinced me that they are more like Fred Karno's lot. I'm oddly reassured.

But Russia cannot be seen to fail in its invasion of such a weak country. Face is everything, or why else the May Day parade?

I would think that NATO will gain a lot of info, not to mention vicarious experience, during the current war, and more if Russia commits. Benefits on the back of dead children, civilians and army personnel.

Very eloquently put!

[faa77]

m3jappa said:

C G said:

Something doesn't quite add up here.

I think there must be a lot of disinformation out there, from both sides.

I totally agree. Us plebs will never know.

I find it odd how all of a sudden this has all come about, dominating the media, most western nations sanctioning russia and even individuals and supplying all manor of weaponry to Ukraine.

I stopped believing the median governments about 18mths ago. I still don't believe them now tbh.

But it's not Governments, it's an aggregation of thousands of individual sources, building a picture.

[paulw123]

bobbylondonuk said:

Where did this idea that Putin is aiming to take over the capital and the rest of Ukraine come from?

My guess is that he doesn’t want to go all in because it will mean huge destruction and loss of lives. This puts him in an awkward position.

If he says go time, the whole place will be flattened in a few days and thousands will die. So why is he holding back and getting sucker punched all over the place?

The media propaganda is brilliant so far, but realistically Ukraine has no chance and it’s people are heroes in waiting.

As the west has now pretty much done every sanction it can and it’s now all about saving face after a somewhat unimpressive start surely a pretty nasty artillery attack on Kiev is looking rather likely. Loosing more troops in street fights isn’t going to help his cause.

[chemistry]

Starlink terminals have arrived. That was pretty quick.

https://twitter.com/fedorovmykhailo/status/1498392...

[6pi]

Derek Smith said:

It's similar in some ways. The USA did not want a missile base in Cuba, any more than Putin wants NATO bases in Ukraine. It was possible that the USA would invade Cuba to destroy the sites.

It was reported, after the event, that it came close to war. I see no reason to disbelieve that.

By installing missiles in Cuba, the USSR threatened directly the US at a time were ICBMs weren't a thing yet, thus breaking the balance between the two superpowers.

NATO bases in Ukraine would be more of an inconvenience (makes it a bit more difficult to invade your neighbour) rather than a real threat to Russia (it's a defensive alliance, democracies are not very likely to start a war for no reason and Russia has a few nukes anyway).

So I'd say for now this is not as bad.