Cost of living squeeze in 2022
Discussion
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
No as caravan and motor home ownership tends to be a long term thing not something too many would replace or need to replace every three years.
Also there is great longevity with each. Its not unusual for caravans to last 30 years. Motorhomes 20 to 39 years.
BIL bought a relatively new huge motorhome for £55k or so 3 odd years ago. They'd likely get that back for it now with the way prices have jumped.
You can get a PCP on a motorhome or mobile caravan. The finance industries reach is wide.Also there is great longevity with each. Its not unusual for caravans to last 30 years. Motorhomes 20 to 39 years.
BIL bought a relatively new huge motorhome for £55k or so 3 odd years ago. They'd likely get that back for it now with the way prices have jumped.
Sheepshanks said:
They’re being sensible and avoiding airports.
Anyway, bearing in mind that even pretty ordinary cars are £30-40K, is that really ‘the middle”?
This. I’ll be going camping somewhere this year, I’m not going through the hell that is air travel at the moment - and there’s no guarantee that you’re going to get there or back. Anyway, bearing in mind that even pretty ordinary cars are £30-40K, is that really ‘the middle”?
oyster said:
Which raises a good point I've been thinking about recently. Even if prices were to slow now and inflation fall back to BoE target by mid 2023 - is that sufficient?
So even if this inflation spike is nipped in the bud now, prices will be permanently higher by 6% than if we had never had the inflation spike. Is this acceptable, or do we need to target inflation at 1% for a few years to 'catch up'?
Another way of looking at it is with petrol prices. They've gone up from 140p ish to 190p ish a litre. If they now only rise by 2% a year for the next few years - is that ok?
as the government is unlikely to stop spending and accumulating more debt in future years compared to this year, i think it's pretty safe to say 1% inflation being targeted to average out this year for the next few years is never going to happen....So even if this inflation spike is nipped in the bud now, prices will be permanently higher by 6% than if we had never had the inflation spike. Is this acceptable, or do we need to target inflation at 1% for a few years to 'catch up'?
Another way of looking at it is with petrol prices. They've gone up from 140p ish to 190p ish a litre. If they now only rise by 2% a year for the next few years - is that ok?
Merry said:
princeperch said:
Last time I came to a static caravan park was well over ten years ago, but I recall it being full of bangers and people walking about in vests.
This is manifestly different I have to say.
Location would play a part. We went to a Haven in Scotland a few years ago. There were plenty of that sort of crowd. This is manifestly different I have to say.
KAgantua said:
speedy_thrills said:
brickwall said:
This is only true for the Western World. In developing economies there is still a glut of young people all looking for a job. Take South Africa for example…60% of the population are under 34, vs. 9% over 50.
The UK delayed/temporarily solved its working demographic pressures through the 2000s with large scale immigration of young workers (from Eastern Europe and elsewhere).
That tap is now drying up, in part linked to Brexit, but also because the home countries have developed massively in the last 20 years and so the relative appeal of moving thousands of miles for a job/life is less.
I'm not sure there is another China out there in the undeveloped world to replace the one that is now substantially industrialised and rapidly aging. China had always been an advanced civilisation until the Opium Wars, their development was likely expedited because it was a return as a global power.The UK delayed/temporarily solved its working demographic pressures through the 2000s with large scale immigration of young workers (from Eastern Europe and elsewhere).
That tap is now drying up, in part linked to Brexit, but also because the home countries have developed massively in the last 20 years and so the relative appeal of moving thousands of miles for a job/life is less.
Eastern European countries have some of the steepest population declines. There won't be a resumption of that pipeline of workers because they just don't have the working age people (nor, as you mention, the overwhelming economic incentive). Indian fertility is now at just the population replacement rate and on a downwards trajectory. Pakistan is probably a decade or two behind India on that trend. Either way it would only temporarily delay the inevitable.
The other thing that may not be immediately apparent is just how much of a role women have likely played in the economic boom we've seen. I seem to recall that after the second world war about a quarter of women worked, by the 70s that was about half and today that's three quarters in most industrialised countries which is substantially comparable to men. Along side population age demographics that's likely to be a one-off, never to be repeated, upswing that helped suppress wage growth and inflation.
We where just really lucky to live at a time when there was so much labour coming into the workforce making goods and services progressively cheaper and driving returns on assets. It's a brave new world for companies and consumers.
- Mass female participation in the workforce
- China participation in the global economy
- For Western Europe- the fall of the Berlin Wall and resulting supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe
These things will not repeat. The period of growth combined with substantial deflationary pressures is over.
Those in the baby boomer generation were exceptionally lucky to participate in this economic period.
The question is - what about their kids - who have joined the labour market in the last 10 years? Or who are joining now?
I do think there are still untapped pockets of the world for labour migration - Africa especially, but whether another period of un/semi-skilled immigration will fly politically who knows.
We therefore revert to the Solow model - the only source of long term growth is productivity growth. That means investment in
- Capital assets (machines, technology)
- Labour capability
Until we can solve that we are in danger of any demand growth being purely inflationary. This would require some long-term thinking…which I fear the current government rather lack!
Deep Thought said:
And yet he has historically been proven over many threads where he predicted doom and damnation for the middle classes that he ends up being woefully and embarrassingly wrong.
Time and time again. Never right once.
He has got every single prediction I have seen wrong so far but I have probably missed some.Time and time again. Never right once.
The latest was a 20% to 30% drop in property prices (although even that needs updating anyway as prices have gone up since then). But no timeframe so he will eventually get that right. Perhaps.
Dog Star said:
This. I’ll be going camping somewhere this year, I’m not going through the hell that is air travel at the moment - and there’s no guarantee that you’re going to get there or back.
It’s really nowhere near as bad as the media are making out. I’ve flown quite a bit this year without any problems.djc206 said:
Dog Star said:
This. I’ll be going camping somewhere this year, I’m not going through the hell that is air travel at the moment - and there’s no guarantee that you’re going to get there or back.
It’s really nowhere near as bad as the media are making out. I’ve flown quite a bit this year without any problems.Deep Thought said:
Welshbeef said:
Throttlebody said:
UK Consumer Confidence hits a record low. The latest GfK index drops to the lowest on record.
This will be playing on the minds of the BOE panel. The weights on pushing up rates are vanishing as every day passes. This is good news indeed.
But at least with interest rates you have control.
Inflation will be organic with less certainty over the outcome.
It feels like we’re going to see UBI and high interest rates… a complete paradox of new paradigm that’ll keep stupid going another few years as the middle class is completely destroyed.
Why people can’t accept the economic reality and pay the price today is beyond me…
Instead people are desperate to save themselves the pain today and pass it to their children
f
king moronic culturally and ethically. But there you go. Westerner’s lifestyles are toxic.djc206 said:
Dog Star said:
This. I’ll be going camping somewhere this year, I’m not going through the hell that is air travel at the moment - and there’s no guarantee that you’re going to get there or back.
It’s really nowhere near as bad as the media are making out. I’ve flown quite a bit this year without any problems.Traffic round Heathrow has become insane for no discernable reason.
Passport control and baggage reclaim have been utter gits and hugely time consuming.
Planes have been short crewed, so reduced service.
Strikes in the US meant that I only caught my flight due to the goodwill of the US TSA (something I never, ever thought I'd ever witness!).
Add in a few of those trips have had covid requirements shift whilst I've been on them, and there's been a bunch of stress.
These have been for work, but I'd absolutely hate trying to manage a couple of young kids going on hols!
brickwall said:
I completely agree there’s been a slew of one-off supply-side expansion in the last 50 years, that’s fed growth and kept inflation low
- Mass female participation in the workforce
- China participation in the global economy
- For Western Europe- the fall of the Berlin Wall and resulting supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe
These things will not repeat. The period of growth combined with substantial deflationary pressures is over.
Those in the baby boomer generation were exceptionally lucky to participate in this economic period.
I think it is worth pointing out that only part of society benefited from that last point. Eastward expansion of the EU happened in 2004 and average real wages stagnated for a decade shortly thereafter (mixed in of course with the effects of the GFC). - Mass female participation in the workforce
- China participation in the global economy
- For Western Europe- the fall of the Berlin Wall and resulting supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe
These things will not repeat. The period of growth combined with substantial deflationary pressures is over.
Those in the baby boomer generation were exceptionally lucky to participate in this economic period.
Real wages grew by 2.9% per year in the 1980s, 1.5% per year in the 1990s.
It fundamentally changed the power balance between capital and labour so of course those with capital favoured it, and still do and want to replicate it in the future.
Dog Star said:
Sheepshanks said:
They’re being sensible and avoiding airports.
Anyway, bearing in mind that even pretty ordinary cars are £30-40K, is that really ‘the middle”?
This. I’ll be going camping somewhere this year, I’m not going through the hell that is air travel at the moment - and there’s no guarantee that you’re going to get there or back. Anyway, bearing in mind that even pretty ordinary cars are £30-40K, is that really ‘the middle”?
My parents got delayed 5 hours coming back from Mexico... £1040 compensation already paid and used to rebook another holiday. I'd take the risk
brickwall said:
I completely agree there’s been a slew of one-off supply-side expansion in the last 50 years, that’s fed growth and kept inflation low
- Mass female participation in the workforce
- China participation in the global economy
- For Western Europe- the fall of the Berlin Wall and resulting supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe
These things will not repeat. The period of growth combined with substantial deflationary pressures is over.
Those in the baby boomer generation were exceptionally lucky to participate in this economic period.
The question is - what about their kids - who have joined the labour market in the last 10 years? Or who are joining now?
I do think there are still untapped pockets of the world for labour migration - Africa especially, but whether another period of un/semi-skilled immigration will fly politically who knows.
We therefore revert to the Solow model - the only source of long term growth is productivity growth. That means investment in
- Capital assets (machines, technology)
- Labour capability
Until we can solve that we are in danger of any demand growth being purely inflationary. This would require some long-term thinking…which I fear the current government rather lack!
Are we turning Japanese?- Mass female participation in the workforce
- China participation in the global economy
- For Western Europe- the fall of the Berlin Wall and resulting supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe
These things will not repeat. The period of growth combined with substantial deflationary pressures is over.
Those in the baby boomer generation were exceptionally lucky to participate in this economic period.
The question is - what about their kids - who have joined the labour market in the last 10 years? Or who are joining now?
I do think there are still untapped pockets of the world for labour migration - Africa especially, but whether another period of un/semi-skilled immigration will fly politically who knows.
We therefore revert to the Solow model - the only source of long term growth is productivity growth. That means investment in
- Capital assets (machines, technology)
- Labour capability
Until we can solve that we are in danger of any demand growth being purely inflationary. This would require some long-term thinking…which I fear the current government rather lack!
I really think so.
Dog Star said:
djc206 said:
It’s really nowhere near as bad as the media are making out. I’ve flown quite a bit this year without any problems.
Me too - but if I’d not been hand luggage only the last two would have been awful. BAs strikes are in school holiday time in End July-August. Not yet had any impact
Easy jet strike not yet happened
Spanish ATC strike not yet happened.
The real pressure of full airports not yet happened a mere blip in jubilee week vs 7 weeks max capacity.
nickfrog said:
Deep Thought said:
And yet he has historically been proven over many threads where he predicted doom and damnation for the middle classes that he ends up being woefully and embarrassingly wrong.
Time and time again. Never right once.
He has got every single prediction I have seen wrong so far but I have probably missed some.Time and time again. Never right once.
The latest was a 20% to 30% drop in property prices (although even that needs updating anyway as prices have gone up since then). But no timeframe so he will eventually get that right. Perhaps.
princeperch said:
It's cost me £89.00 for 4 nights. it's a brand new static caravan, free parking, kitchen, two bathrooms.
As I said I just wanted somewhere cheap for the kids to come and enjoy the beach for a few days but youd have to have had half your brain removed to spend tens of thousands buying one of these things when you can rent them for next to nothing.
AMG estate just drove past btw! The cars are getting better as the day goes on.
It's only next to nothing because it's term time. Watch the price quadruple during the summer holidays As I said I just wanted somewhere cheap for the kids to come and enjoy the beach for a few days but youd have to have had half your brain removed to spend tens of thousands buying one of these things when you can rent them for next to nothing.
AMG estate just drove past btw! The cars are getting better as the day goes on.
We like the haven resorts as it's good entertainment for the kids but last year we had to wince a bit as the price at the start of the summer holidays increased from just under a grand in 2019 to £1400 in 2021.
This year... well. We took one look at the prices and decided to go to a spanish island in May jubilee week instead for not much more.
Throttlebody said:
nickfrog said:
Deep Thought said:
And yet he has historically been proven over many threads where he predicted doom and damnation for the middle classes that he ends up being woefully and embarrassingly wrong.
Time and time again. Never right once.
He has got every single prediction I have seen wrong so far but I have probably missed some.Time and time again. Never right once.
The latest was a 20% to 30% drop in property prices (although even that needs updating anyway as prices have gone up since then). But no timeframe so he will eventually get that right. Perhaps.
Plus if it was a 20% price drop then we’d only go back to Nov2020. Or even sooner than that.
Not much is it.
Even 30% you’d only be going back to what 2019 it really impacts so very very very few people & that’s only if those buyers HAD to sell.
As said many many times I and so many others have powder dry so if. Things drop lovely step up the ladder and/or chance to buy some more.
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