Cost of living squeeze in 2022

[Deep Thought]

Throttlebody said:

Could be a long wait. Maybe not even see it.

Fortunately we dont have to endure Heathrow, or London Airports, or London for that matter.

If our luggage doesnt turn up on the way, we'll claim from our travel insurance and buy more clothes when we're there.

If it doesnt turn up on the way back, we'll claim from our travel insurance.

Not even remotely concerned about that

When i used to travel to client site weekly i'd have always just have had cabin luggage, far handier, but not for holidays.

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 25th June 19:23

[nickfrog]

Throttlebody said:

nickfrog said:

Deep Thought said:

And yet he has historically been proven over many threads where he predicted doom and damnation for the middle classes that he ends up being woefully and embarrassingly wrong.

Time and time again. Never right once.

He has got every single prediction I have seen wrong so far but I have probably missed some.

The latest was a 20% to 30% drop in property prices (although even that needs updating anyway as prices have gone up since then). But no timeframe so he will eventually get that right. Perhaps.

Predictions?

I’ve just remembered, who would have predicted I’d be much faster around Oulton Park in my Mk7 Fiesta ST than you in your BMW M2.

That's the thing with cheap quick and light hot hatches in the damp, they're really easy to drive fast particularly when remapped and if you bin them then they're kind of disposable. That's a bit of a theme with you isn't it? Nothing to lose.

I always let them through, I have no issue with that, particularly when I am on old used Conti 3s that don't dispel much moisture on 2mm and yield next to no traction. I am still having a lot of fun with everything off though, which I probably wouldn't have in a Fiesta.

And if it makes a creepy weirdo who still lives with his parents a little less bitter, all the better. Perspective.

But more to the point when is the 20% to 30% drop in property prices happening? This year? In 10 years time? Utterly meaningless without a time frame.

I might get more BTL if that happens so it would be good to know.

Edited by nickfrog on Saturday 25th June 21:10

[nickfrog]

brickwall said:

If we want to make the country more productive, then we have to make extracting rents less appealing, and productive work more appealing.

No it is about balance. You can work AND be a LL, the two are not mutually exclusive.

LL pay a lot of tax. SD plus 3%, income tax, CGT, inheritance tax, Vat on on going and one off fees etc etc.

They meet a demand from people who want or need to rent for career mobility or are saving to buy.

Deter LL too much and you create a lot of problems.

The balance is about right now.

[brickwall]

nickfrog said:

brickwall said:

If we want to make the country more productive, then we have to make extracting rents less appealing, and productive work more appealing.

No it is about balance. You can work AND be a LL, the two are not mutually exclusive.

LL pay a lot of tax. SD plus 3%, income tax, CGT, inheritance tax, Vat on on going and one off fees etc etc.

They meet a demand from people who want or need to rent for career mobility or are saving to buy.

Deter LL too much and you create a lot of problems.

The balance is about right now.

I use “rent” in the pure economic use of the term. Like any good fee marketeer I am very anti the extracting of economic rent - because where a sector exists that can provide “rent-like” returns it results in inefficient capital allocation.

Not sure how BTL enhances the productive capacity of the economy (unless you’re building to rent) though - and hence not sure how it’s an economic ‘investment’, and entirely sensible to tilt the tax system in favour of those things that do enhance productive capacity.

Not anti-LL at all, as you say that is a service which has a place in society. We should tax the income derived from it just like any other income.

[Throttlebody]

nickfrog said:

That's the thing with cheap quick and light hot hatches in the damp, they're really easy to drive fast particularly when remapped and if you bin them then they're kind of disposable. That's a bit of a theme with you isn't it? Nothing to lose.

I always let them through, I have no issue with that, particularly when I am on old used Conti 3s that don't dispel much moisture on 2mm and yield next to no traction. I am still having a lot of fun with everything off though, which I probably wouldn't have in a Fiesta.

And if it makes a creepy weirdo who still lives with his parents a little less bitter, all the better. Perspective.

But more to the point when is the 20% to 30% drop in property prices happening? This year? In 10 years time? Utterly meaningless without a time frame.

I might get more BTL if that happens so it would be good to know.

Edited by nickfrog on Saturday 25th June 21:10

Me and the 215 bhp Fiesta on worn road tyres did good right.

If I’d actually known it was you at the time I’d have given you a friendly wave as I passed. Excellent day.

Exact timescales for house price corrections are difficult to predict. Lots of price inertia and sentiment. Long view required.

Current BTLs will lose significant equity in a down market. Not a great time to be holding or increasing a portfolio.

[skwdenyer]

nickfrog said:

They meet a demand from people who want or need to rent for career mobility or are saving to buy.

It really isn’t meeting that need in much of the country, is it? The ratio between rents and incomes is too far out of kilter for that.

[roger.mellie]

Deep Thought said:

Not a pups chance we'll be going on hols with just hand luggage.

20KG hold luggage each, 10KG overhead case each, small bag each. Happy to wait for the luggage.

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 25th June 18:46

Lol. I know. I’m not the only one on here but when I’m travelling alone it is hand luggage only every time, business or leisure. Whether that’s two days or three weeks. My frequent flyer days are over and unlikely to return but it’s the best way to travel, especially if connecting or doing multiple destinations. Now saying that, we’ve 2 weeks in the US and a week in the Canaries booked this year so far and I’ll be taking hold luggage on both, maxed out on both. If I’m going to have to wait on my wife’s I might as well wait on my own too and half and half [ok 75-25 in her favour] the contents just in case. Hand luggage will have enough for me to survive on even if the suitcase doesn’t make it though, old habits die hard.

[loafer123]

I don’t mind using the hold if I’m not in a hurry - there is a real luxury travelling with no bag at all past checkin.

I’ve always worked on the basis I can fall back to the Jack Reacher model - just go and buy new stuff in the highly unlikely event that they lose the bag.

For the record, it happened to me once, about 30 years ago.

[roger.mellie]

loafer123 said:

I don’t mind using the hold if I’m not in a hurry - there is a real luxury travelling with no bag at all past checkin.

I’ve always worked on the basis I can fall back to the Jack Reacher model - just go and buy new stuff in the highly unlikely event that they lose the bag.

For the record, it happened to me once, about 30 years ago.

Oh I can agree on that too. On the rare occasions I had no choice but to check luggage e.g a suitcase full of presentation materials (whoever came up with the idea of giving logo’ed polos or worse hoodies to course attendees would be on my quantum loop correction timeline ahead of hitler) there was a huge level of freedom getting rid of the case and walking about the airport and into the cabin with nothing but the contents of your pockets. But given the choice I’d never want the anchor of hold luggage in most solo travel circumstances.

[pquinn]

loafer123 said:

I don’t mind using the hold if I’m not in a hurry - there is a real luxury travelling with no bag at all past checkin.

I’ve always worked on the basis I can fall back to the Jack Reacher model - just go and buy new stuff in the highly unlikely event that they lose the bag.

For the record, it happened to me once, about 30 years ago.

Most of the time as long as you have your passport and a way to get/spend money everything else is just a nice to have.

[roger.mellie]

pquinn said:

loafer123 said:

I don’t mind using the hold if I’m not in a hurry - there is a real luxury travelling with no bag at all past checkin.

I’ve always worked on the basis I can fall back to the Jack Reacher model - just go and buy new stuff in the highly unlikely event that they lose the bag.

For the record, it happened to me once, about 30 years ago.

Most of the time as long as you have your passport and a way to get/spend money everything else is just a nice to have.

Having a way to get/spend isn’t a given but agreed.

I’ve never done that in international travel but I have done it separately cycling touring and driving through Ireland. Bike, change of clothes, and a credit card for everything else. It’s a nice level of freedom but on a cost of living thread it’s an expensive way of doing things. There are many ways to deal with cost vs convenience. My happy medium is having all I need in my personal carry without planning having to sit in my birthday suit waiting for my only pair of cacks and trews to dry .

[Biggy Stardust]

skwdenyer said:

The ratio between rents and incomes is too far out of kilter for that.

Every time the various governments & councils find new ways to persecute LLs they're amazed when rents rise to cover additional expense & aggravation. And then some of the public lap it up & demand more of the same. To quote Spock: "fascinating".

[roger.mellie]

Biggy Stardust said:

skwdenyer said:

The ratio between rents and incomes is too far out of kilter for that.

Every time the various governments & councils find new ways to persecute LLs they're amazed when rents rise to cover additional expense & aggravation. And then some of the public lap it up & demand more of the same. To quote Spock: "fascinating".

LLs aren’t persecuted. Pretty much the opposite.

It isn’t that fascinating. Yes it’s an issue when additional hassles just get passed on to the renters but I’d be moderately supportive of measures that push out small time LLs in favour of those running it as a proper business. Law of the land is too skewed towards the LL in the UK. I say that as someone who has once owned BTL and still do own a second house my father in law lives in without us asking for any rent (technically obvs my wife does the latter but we afford it as a couple).

What’s more fascinating to me is the notion that a nation full of small time LL investors thinks that’s a good thing that the government should support and that they’re somehow a necessity that the economy couldn’t do without. They’re a necessity because of government policy, they’re not a necessity. You can’t blame people for taking advantage of what the government has encouraged but zero tears shed/fks will be given if anyone wants to make a plea for the hard time LLs are getting over tenants.

[Welshbeef]

1% of the population own 50% of the UK.

It’s so good small time set up for buy to let over mass market companies running the show. Too much of the govt don’t want people to make good it’s odd that the vested interest

[Gecko1978]

Welshbeef said:

1% of the population own 50% of the UK.

It’s so good small time set up for buy to let over mass market companies running the show. Too much of the govt don’t want people to make good it’s odd that the vested interest

I agree the government don't want people as a whole to make good. What's surprising is a tory government are doing it.

[eldar]

Welshbeef said:

1% of the population own 50% of the UK.

It’s so good small time set up for buy to let over mass market companies running the show. Too much of the govt don’t want people to make good it’s odd that the vested interest

Does the 1% include the government and things like roads, national parks? Sounds rather like a sound bite of limited accuracy.

Who are the 1% and what s the 50%

[Deep Thought]

roger.mellie said:

Lol. I know. I’m not the only one on here but when I’m travelling alone it is hand luggage only every time, business or leisure. Whether that’s two days or three weeks. My frequent flyer days are over and unlikely to return but it’s the best way to travel, especially if connecting or doing multiple destinations. Now saying that, we’ve 2 weeks in the US and a week in the Canaries booked this year so far and I’ll be taking hold luggage on both, maxed out on both. If I’m going to have to wait on my wife’s I might as well wait on my own too and half and half [ok 75-25 in her favour] the contents just in case. Hand luggage will have enough for me to survive on even if the suitcase doesn’t make it though, old habits die hard.

Yes, i travelled a lot with my job and i only ever took hand luggage, even if i was going for 4 day or the full week. It was usually back and forth to the same place for a couple of years so i could leave a case with toiletries and stuff over there.

But yes, i've never yet had a holiday case go astray but anything important i always keep in hand luggage anyway. Anything else can be bought there if needs be.

[Deep Thought]

Welshbeef said:

1% of the population own 50% of the UK.

It’s so good small time set up for buy to let over mass market companies running the show. Too much of the govt don’t want people to make good it’s odd that the vested interest

"Of the population", or charitable organisations, environmental interest groups, government bodies, businesses, etc?

Though i definitely agree RE: the government dont want people to make good. And of course, it will be the middle earners who are taxed more heavily to pay off the country's debt.

[Throttlebody]

Deep Thought said:

Throttlebody said:

Predictions?

I’ve just remembered, who would have predicted I’d be much faster around Oulton Park in my Mk7 Fiesta ST than you in your BMW M2.

Ah the gold old days when you had a hot hatch and could do track days.

Shame you've had to knuckle down for this cost of living squeeze so soon and get rid of it. I cant imagine the Juke is much fun. I thought you above all people would have been better prepared for this

A head so full of exaggerated interpretations.

Relax DT, the Juke is just a bit of shed action.

[Throttlebody]

skwdenyer said:

nickfrog said:

They meet a demand from people who want or need to rent for career mobility or are saving to buy.

It really isn’t meeting that need in much of the country, is it? The ratio between rents and incomes is too far out of kilter for that.

That ratio will slowly improve for renters as property prices fall. A BTL LL will have to face reducing property equity as negative gearing bites and cost of living pressures from tenants forcing down rental yields. The BTL LL will get squeezed.