Cost of living squeeze in 2022

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Deep Thought

35,848 posts

198 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
A head so full of exaggerated interpretations.
Indeed you have.

Throttlebody said:
Relax DT, the Juke is just a bit of shed action.
Sure. Shed action that means you'd to give up track days too?

You've - allegedly - went from a year old 330i, to a 8 year old Fiesta ST that you tracked to a Nissan shed (And not even one you can track like the Micra shed you had), all over the timeframe of the COVID cutbacks and the cost of living crisis.

Thats some downward trend.

Feels like drastic evasive action.



Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 26th June 10:23

monthou

4,584 posts

51 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
That ratio will slowly improve for renters as property prices fall. A BTL LL will have to face reducing property equity as negative gearing bites and cost of living pressures from tenants forcing down rental yields. The BTL LL will get squeezed.
How long have you been predicting that for?
When's it going to happen?
How far are they going to fall?

Obviously property prices will fall at some point. At which point you'll be right and the rest of the world will be wrong.

Deep Thought

35,848 posts

198 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
monthou said:
How long have you been predicting that for?
When's it going to happen?
How far are they going to fall?

Obviously property prices will fall at some point. At which point you'll be right and the rest of the world will be wrong.
Indeed. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

Throttlebody

2,348 posts

55 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
monthou said:
Throttlebody said:
That ratio will slowly improve for renters as property prices fall. A BTL LL will have to face reducing property equity as negative gearing bites and cost of living pressures from tenants forcing down rental yields. The BTL LL will get squeezed.
How long have you been predicting that for?
When's it going to happen?
How far are they going to fall?

Obviously property prices will fall at some point. At which point you'll be right and the rest of the world will be wrong.
It’s already in progress. Not comfortable for the VI.

monthou

4,584 posts

51 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
monthou said:
Throttlebody said:
That ratio will slowly improve for renters as property prices fall. A BTL LL will have to face reducing property equity as negative gearing bites and cost of living pressures from tenants forcing down rental yields. The BTL LL will get squeezed.
How long have you been predicting that for?
When's it going to happen?
How far are they going to fall?

Obviously property prices will fall at some point. At which point you'll be right and the rest of the world will be wrong.
It’s already in progress. Not comfortable for the VI.
How long have you been predicting that for?
How far have they fallen so far?
How far do you think they're going to fall?

What's the VI?

Edited by monthou on Sunday 26th June 10:37

DSLiverpool

14,764 posts

203 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
PRTVR said:
Throttlebody said:
Dog Star said:
djc206 said:
It’s really nowhere near as bad as the media are making out. I’ve flown quite a bit this year without any problems.
Me too - but if I’d not been hand luggage only the last two would have been awful.
Hand luggage is key right now. Travel light.
I thought the same, until I mentioned it to the wife, this is the person who takes whatever our allowance is to within half a kg and that includes hand luggage,
to say it wasn’t very popular would be an understatement. hehe
Not a pups chance we'll be going on hols with just hand luggage.

20KG hold luggage each, 10KG overhead case each, small bag each. Happy to wait for the luggage.

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 25th June 18:46
Could be a long wait. Maybe not even see it.


Use a courier to send your luggage on separately-

Throttlebody

2,348 posts

55 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
Sure. Shed action that means you'd to give up track days too?

You've - allegedly - went from a year old 330i, to a 8 year old Fiesta ST that you tracked to a Nissan shed (And not even one you can track like the Micra shed you had), all over the timeframe of the COVID cutbacks and the cost of living crisis.

Thats some downward trend.

Feels like drastic evasive action.



Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 26th June 10:23
So many assumptions biggrin

You can track a Juke, no problem. Be quicker than the Micra.

roger.mellie

4,640 posts

53 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
monthou said:
How long have you been predicting that for?
When's it going to happen?
How far are they going to fall?

Obviously property prices will fall at some point. At which point you'll be right and the rest of the world will be wrong.
Indeed. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
If (and only if) interest rates keep rising it’s not unlikely that some prices will fall. Many prices are based on affordability lending criteria. So it’s easy enough for the banks to get the same monthly for a lower price if interest rates go up. That doesn’t imply a crash though.

Deep Thought

35,848 posts

198 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
Sure. Shed action that means you'd to give up track days too?

You've - allegedly - went from a year old 330i, to a 8 year old Fiesta ST that you tracked to a Nissan shed (And not even one you can track like the Micra shed you had), all over the timeframe of the COVID cutbacks and the cost of living crisis.

Thats some downward trend.

Feels like drastic evasive action.
So many assumptions biggrin

You can track a Juke, no problem. Be quicker than the Micra.
I dont see any assumptions.

You'd - allegedly - a year old 330i.
You'd a Fiesta ST
You've now a shed Nissan Juke.

That all happened across the timeframe of COVID lockdowns and the cost of living crisis.

That is a downward trend in terms of value, and a significant loss in terms of tracking capability.

Yes i'm sure you could track it, but i doubt anyone would bother.

Throttlebody

2,348 posts

55 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
roger.mellie said:
Deep Thought said:
monthou said:
How long have you been predicting that for?
When's it going to happen?
How far are they going to fall?

Obviously property prices will fall at some point. At which point you'll be right and the rest of the world will be wrong.
Indeed. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
If (and only if) interest rates keep rising it’s not unlikely that some prices will fall. Many prices are based on affordability lending criteria. So it’s easy enough for the banks to get the same monthly for a lower price if interest rates go up. That doesn’t imply a crash though.
Interest rates will continue to rise. Virtually guaranteed. There’s more inflationary pressures feeding into the economy. Inflation at ~11% forecast.

monthou

4,584 posts

51 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
roger.mellie said:
If (and only if) interest rates keep rising it’s not unlikely that some prices will fall. Many prices are based on affordability lending criteria. So it’s easy enough for the banks to get the same monthly for a lower price if interest rates go up. That doesn’t imply a crash though.
Absolutely.
If they drop by 20% that puts prices back to 2020 levels.
A pound to a penny says Throttlebody was predicting doom, gloom and property crashes in 2020. If not here, somewhere else.

Deep Thought

35,848 posts

198 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
roger.mellie said:
Deep Thought said:
monthou said:
How long have you been predicting that for?
When's it going to happen?
How far are they going to fall?

Obviously property prices will fall at some point. At which point you'll be right and the rest of the world will be wrong.
Indeed. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
If (and only if) interest rates keep rising it’s not unlikely that some prices will fall. Many prices are based on affordability lending criteria. So it’s easy enough for the banks to get the same monthly for a lower price if interest rates go up. That doesn’t imply a crash though.
Agreed. Or at very least they'll stop rising. As you say, doesnt mean its a property crash given ever a 20% drop will only take them back to 2020.

Deep Thought

35,848 posts

198 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
Interest rates will continue to rise. Virtually guaranteed. There’s more inflationary pressures feeding into the economy. Inflation at ~11% forecast.
They will but not indefinitely. We'll likely see 2.5% in 2023 but thats certainly not enough to create a property market crash.

Inflation issues are because of supply not demand.

Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 26th June 10:53

Throttlebody

2,348 posts

55 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
I dont see any assumptions.

You'd - allegedly - a year old 330i.
You'd a Fiesta ST
You've now a shed Nissan Juke.

That all happened across the timeframe of COVID lockdowns and the cost of living crisis.

That is a downward trend in terms of value, and a significant loss in terms of tracking capability.

Yes i'm sure you could track it, but i doubt anyone would bother.
So what is your overall conclusion then?



Throttlebody

2,348 posts

55 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
Throttlebody said:
Interest rates will continue to rise. Virtually guaranteed. There’s more inflationary pressures feeding into the economy. Inflation at ~11% forecast.
They will but not indefinitely. We'll likely see 2.5% in 2023 but thats certainly not enough to create a property market crash.

Inflation issues are because of supply not demand.

Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 26th June 10:53
You’ve introduced the word ‘crash’, not me.

A steady 20-30% correction is my call.



Sway

26,325 posts

195 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
roger.mellie said:
Deep Thought said:
monthou said:
How long have you been predicting that for?
When's it going to happen?
How far are they going to fall?

Obviously property prices will fall at some point. At which point you'll be right and the rest of the world will be wrong.
Indeed. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
If (and only if) interest rates keep rising it’s not unlikely that some prices will fall. Many prices are based on affordability lending criteria. So it’s easy enough for the banks to get the same monthly for a lower price if interest rates go up. That doesn’t imply a crash though.
Indeed. Key bit being 'some'.

Property prices that won't fall (or will fall far less than the average):

'Starter homes' - all the talk of challenges for landlords only looks at the type that own a couple of BT stop supplement income/provide pension assets. All that's happening is that this section is being squeezed and 'institutional' landlords are making hay. In a market where FTBs are even less likely to attract lending irrespective of LTV, they'll be hoovering up in cash.

Suburban/semi rural family homes - they'll either not move, suppressing supply, or be subject to upward pressures due to the increased demand from people now WFH a significant part of the week and trading so some commuting time for improved familial lifestyle.

In my village, two properties I'd be interested in came onto the market. One is a close facsimile of mine in the same small Close, the other the sort of thing I'd like to move to.

Both under offer within three days. The facsimile of mine had an asking of over 30% more than I paid in 2019 thanks to the WFH effect. Huge demand for anything that has home office capability - and buyers won't be fussed about their much smaller, much more urban current family home dropping ten percent as they'll still be quids in after moving.

hotchy

4,476 posts

127 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
I'm hoping higher interest rates, will in turn make cars on pcp more expensive to demand will drop and in turn hopefully the prices then come down to help with the payments etc. At that point the cash buyers can finally get some value for money.


I can keep dreaming... frown

Deep Thought

35,848 posts

198 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
hotchy said:
I'm hoping higher interest rates, will in turn make cars on pcp more expensive to demand will drop and in turn hopefully the prices then come down to help with the payments etc. At that point the cash buyers can finally get some value for money.


I can keep dreaming... frown
Value for money for cash buyers was when manufacturers were chasing volume sales and offering massive discounts and finance incentives. Cash buyers could then avail of the finance incentives too and clear the finance. A win win.

The problem is when less cars can be sold, manufacturers look to increase margin - like we're seeing now.

Also they pump money in to finance offerings not drop the prices of their cars to find the balance, so again, simply avail of the finance offering and clear the finance.

speedy_thrills

7,760 posts

244 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
As said many many times I and so many others have powder dry so if. Things drop lovely step up the ladder and/or chance to buy some more.
I think things will get easier over the next few years but driven more by wage increases than prices coming back a long way.

skwdenyer

16,528 posts

241 months

Sunday 26th June 2022
quotequote all
roger.mellie said:
If (and only if) interest rates keep rising it’s not unlikely that some prices will fall. Many prices are based on affordability lending criteria. So it’s easy enough for the banks to get the same monthly for a lower price if interest rates go up. That doesn’t imply a crash though.
BoE wants to scrap affordability checks. MIRAS could make a comeback. Govt policy is to preserve housing “wealth” at all costs.
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