Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[Tartan Pixie]

EddieSteadyGo said:

This is a rather bleak assessment from the Institute for the Study of War.

They estimate the Russian plan is to annex all of the currently occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, in a one off move, and then declare any attack on "Russian territory" would warrant a potential nuclear response.

The only issue with the analysis is that it doesn't take into account the consequences on the currently frozen Russian foreign reserves and seized assets, nor sanctions.

I've said before, in my view sanctions wouldn't have the quick effect some initially estimated, and there are always enough self-interested parties to bypass much of it. But it would be interesting to know if the reserves which had been actually frozen was of a sufficiently large size to apply leverage on the Russian regime. Russia has been trying quite hard over the last few weeks to maintain its reputation for making its debt repayments, so it isn't immune to financial leverage.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russ...

There's a lot of caveats and maybes in that assessment, I see it more as setting out the options Russia will have to choose from regarding the legal status of occupied territories rather than a prediction of what Russia will do.

IMO we've reached a point where everyone can see that Russia's current plans aren't working so it's reasonable to assume Putin's going to do something to try and improve Russia's situation, however no one knows what that something will be so commentators are now playing a guessing game regarding Putin's next move.

[TriumphStag3.0V8]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

LOL

It was incredibly clever of the US and the West to lure Russia into the trap of unlawfully invading a sovereign state without provocation and threatening to nuke the world.

Only one person, ONE is responsible for these deaths and bloodshed.

I will give you a clue. HIS NAME IS PUTIN!

[Tartan Pixie]

andy_s said:

Tartan Pixie said:

RE the failed river crossing, do Russia not have amphibious fighting vehicles and personnel carriers, or is that just the older Soviet stuff?

I was under the impression Russia have (or used to have?) a river crossing a doctrine designed to work in contested airspace, troops go across amphibiously with the pontoon bridges going up after the the 1st echelon troops have secured a bridgehead?

https://russellphillips.uk/warsaw-pact-river-crossing/

That's the one, thanks.

Even if it's no longer so heavily emphasised in modern Russian training it's difficult to understand how the staff planning the operation could make quite such a balls up.

[J210]

Moden warfare is kinda crazy. Consumer drones with munitions attached seam to be having great success. (even when they miss the target)

Some might find this distressing.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/152544175916937...

[sisu]

andy_s said:

Tartan Pixie said:

RE the failed river crossing, do Russia not have amphibious fighting vehicles and personnel carriers, or is that just the older Soviet stuff?

I was under the impression Russia have (or used to have?) a river crossing a doctrine designed to work in contested airspace, troops go across amphibiously with the pontoon bridges going up after the the 1st echelon troops have secured a bridgehead?

https://russellphillips.uk/warsaw-pact-river-crossing/

The Russian's "expected to advance an average of 100km per day" and " no river be a delay to their speedy advance towards Germany"
Instead this happened and they are retreating

[Welshbeef]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18566192/russia-thre...

Sorry for red top media link - but the threat and message is crystal clear.

[TheJimi]

Welshbeef said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18566192/russia-thre...

Sorry for red top media link - but the threat and message is crystal clear.

There's no threats there. He's saying what they could achieve, he's not threatening anything.

Step away from the tabloids.

Edit: The Russians don't need to try to scare us; our own media does the job admirably.

Edited by TheJimi on Saturday 14th May 14:03

[Miserablegit]

Welshbeef said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18566192/russia-thre...

Sorry for red top media link - but the threat and message is crystal clear.

There is no real threat - if the scrotum-faced murdering thought he could get away with it he’d have done it. He knows as soon as he launches then Russia is toast as well.
The problem for them is they are using their Russian media “skills” against the west. We know it’s all horsest.

Edited by Miserablegit on Saturday 14th May 13:29

[vonuber]

Welshbeef said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18566192/russia-thre...

Sorry for red top media link - but the threat and message is crystal clear.

So it's a Saturday then.

[blueg33]

Miserablegit said:

Welshbeef said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18566192/russia-thre...

Sorry for red top media link - but the threat and message is crystal clear.

There is no real threat - if the scrotum-faced murdering thought he could get away with it he’d have done it. He knows as soon as he launches then Russia is toast as well.
The problem for them is they are using their Russian media “skills” against the west. We know it’s all horsest.

Edited by Miserablegit on Saturday 14th May 13:29

Where it becomes worrying is when the people in the chain of command for a launch believe the bullst about UK launching etc, or believe it enough to think that a first strike is plausible and therefore initiate the launch when instructed.

If you have no other source, the Russian media becomes believable.

[J4CKO]

TheJimi said:

Welshbeef said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18566192/russia-thre...

Sorry for red top media link - but the threat and message is crystal clear.

There's no threats there. He's saying what they could achieve, he's not threatening anything.

Step away from the tabloids.

Hmm, never sure what to think and it’s always a possibility but they say it every day or two so it’s kind of lost it’s impact.

If they do they are effectively saying they require Russia levelling, as that is how it works.

Thing is, it’s so fked and he is knackered one way or another physically and globally he may as well, it’s just whether the rest of his crew fancy joining in and whether the commands are actioned. That moment would be when either he gets offed or we get a bit toasty.

The whole of Russia is apparently brainwashed but I am sure, like us they don’t want bombing.

[rigga]

Another day, another nuclear threat.

[BikeBikeBIke]

rigga said:

Another day, another nuclear threat.

If I had a rouble for every Russian Nuclear threat I'd be able to buy several penny sweets.

[TriumphStag3.0V8]

eharding said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

Byker28i said:

It's funny because at the moment it just really looks like the russians went in to plunder white goods from Ukranian homes

Debunked. That's a component of the aircraft that happens to look like a washing machine.

Indeed - there are a few notable examples of military aircraft components and equipment that outwardly resemble ordinary househould fixtures and fittings.

For example, this Vietnam-era AQ-2-PU jamming pod fitted to a Douglas A-1 Skyraider -

That's a CRAPpy looking design really, you would have thought they would have spent more time on the aesthetics and aerodynamics, and not get BOGged down on the technical side. But you really wouldn't want to LOOse the combat capability. That would get you PANned. Still it is ideal for hiding in plain sight, you would not want people lifting the lid on the secrets within.

Edited by TriumphStag3.0V8 on Saturday 14th May 13:48

[eharding]

TriumphStag3.0V8 said:

That's a CRAPpy looking design really, you would have thought they would have spent more time on the aesthetics and aerodynamics, and not get BOGged down on the technical side. But you really wouldn't want to LOOse the combat capability. That would get you PANned. Still it is ideal for hiding in plain sight, you would not want people lifting the lid on the secrets within.

Edited by TriumphStag3.0V8 on Saturday 14th May 13:48

The design was actually based in a wartime Japanese aircraft equipment fairing that US intelligence had become privy to, which featured in a number of kamikhazi raids.

[J4CKO]

Funny how they haven’t made a direct threat to the US, well I haven’t seen one.

[rigga]

J4CKO said:

Funny how they haven’t made a direct threat to the US, well I haven’t seen one.

That's not how bully's operate, easier to pick on the smaller ones, because to pick on one of equal, or bigger stance, would immediately show shortcomings.

Turns out, picking on Ukraine has done exactly that too.

Poor to be Putin right now, really screwed up massively.

[glazbagun]

sisu said:

The Russian's "expected to advance an average of 100km per day" and " no river be a delay to their speedy advance towards Germany"
Instead this happened and they are retreating

I mean, they wouldn't be fighting through a hostile Ukraine when they made the plan, so there's a big head start!

[FourWheelDrift]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/152515848456...

"The #Omsk conscription office was pelted with Molotov cocktails thru windows at 4am last night. Fire extinguished. Much of the conscription database is stored on paper in such offices. 3rd-world country. These are #RussianResistance attempts to prevent #mobilization."

[Oakey]

Accidentally clicked the wrong thing and ended up at the last page of the forum and saw this thread from 2009 regard Russia re-armanment, some of the comments have aged well

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...