Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[anonymous-user]

eharding said:

captain_cynic said:

When Russia was thought to be strong, they wouldn't dare think of joining NATO. Now Russia has been shown to be weak, they can't join fast enough.

I think it's more the case that in the past Finland was aware that joining NATO would upset a delicate balance, one that has been largely kept intact since 1945, and that if that balance was maintained Russia was unlikely to act against them, and more so since the fall of the USSR. Now that the Russians have gone full bat-st Tontomental, that balance has evaporated and the Finns have acted accordingly.

I think that's a much more logical explanation. A wounded bear can still take a chunk out of anyone.

[vonuber]

raftom said:

More footage appeared today of Ukrainian Su-25s near the front. Low flying and evasive manoeuvres against MANPADS.

Wow.

[hidetheelephants]

Art0ir said:

FiF said:

Phosphorous bombs on Azovstal works.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1525768...

Is it actually phosphorous or thermite or some other incendiary?

Regardless this is simply a drawn out execution of the forces still present.

I don't mean to be one of those guys, but these are actually 9M22S incendiary rounds from a GRAD rocket. They don't elicit the same reaction because people aren't as familiar, but in many ways they are much worse than WP. Each rocket carries 180 hexagonal pieces of Magnesium alloy stuffed with pyro materials.

In terms of the capacity to maim phosphorus is pretty nasty but any incendiary device isn't going to shower the recipient in rose petals. I confess to being a bit baffled what the russians expect to achieve with the incendiary, steelworks aren't terribly flammable other than the coke pile. At best it will burn holes in the roof. I guess they're just chucking everything in including the kitchen sink.

[Art0ir]

hidetheelephants said:

In terms of the capacity to maim phosphorus is pretty nasty but any incendiary device isn't going to shower the recipient in rose petals. I confess to being a bit baffled what the russians expect to achieve with the incendiary, steelworks aren't terribly flammable other than the coke pile. At best it will burn holes in the roof. I guess they're just chucking everything in including the kitchen sink.

Very fair point I would just rather everyone had the right info so as not to give any ammunition to apologists. I've mostly seen them used along the frontlines in the East on well dug in positions - having that stuff rain down on your trench is not a good time - or in civilian areas because, well, Russians.

[PRTVR]

A Javelin direct hit on a Russian tank.
https://youtu.be/RMLcTnFmO-o

[stongle]

eharding said:

Now that the Russians have gone full bat-st Tontomental, that balance has evaporated and the Finns have acted accordingly.

Are you being serious, or do you watch too much TikTok?

Putin hasn't gone "full bat-st", nor tontomental. He's playing exactly as an authoritarian (corrupt) leadership needs to. It's anything but mental, it's predictable behaviour pattern. His entire powerbase is dependent on presenting a bigger threat to the Russian people than HIS leadership.

It's distasteful, its stty, but it's anything but mental. It's because he's NOT nuts, the West can poor in kit and (hopefully very uncomfortably watch), the Ukranians do all the fighting.

The minute he actually DOES present as completely mental, the West's position will shift dramatically...

Right now, his propaganda lies and bullst have him trapped in a losing war. But its NOT an irrational path IF you are the head honcho in kleptocracy.

It might be alien to you, but it's entirely predictable behaviour pattern. And if it's a pattern or follows (his) logic, it's not "bat st".

[Digga]

stongle said:

Are you being serious, or do you watch too much TikTok?

Putin hasn't gone "full bat-st", nor tontomental. He's playing exactly as an authoritarian (corrupt) leadership needs to. It's anything but mental, it's predictable behaviour pattern. His entire powerbase is dependent on presenting a bigger threat to the Russian people than HIS leadership.

It's distasteful, its stty, but it's anything but mental. It's because he's NOT nuts, the West can poor in kit and (hopefully very uncomfortably watch), the Ukranians do all the fighting.

The minute he actually DOES present as completely mental, the West's position will shift dramatically...

Right now, his propaganda lies and bullst have him trapped in a losing war. But its NOT an irrational path IF you are the head honcho in kleptocracy.

It might be alien to you, but it's entirely predictable behaviour pattern. And if it's a pattern or follows (his) logic, it's not "bat st".

Theres nothing sane, logical or sage about waging a war where countless totally innocent civilians are killed, whilst simultaneously you feed conscripts (who you’ve gone live on state TV to say will not be used in combat) in their hundreds of thousands into a military meat grinder with st kit and corrupt and useless leadership that ensures almost half are dead, injured or mentally scarred for life within a month.

It is utter, deplorable, despicable insanity.

If that is not the work of a deluded lunatic, nothing is.

[HM-2]

Digga said:

heres nothing sane, logical or sage about waging a war where...

Putin is unlikely to be directly responsible for tactical and operational decision making, but at a strategic level everything that's been playing out is entirely in keeping with both Russian doctrine and the ideological concepts that have motivated the invasion. It's just that doctrine is fundamentally a bit st for the war being fought.

[Vasco]

Digga said:

stongle said:

Are you being serious, or do you watch too much TikTok?

Putin hasn't gone "full bat-st", nor tontomental. He's playing exactly as an authoritarian (corrupt) leadership needs to. It's anything but mental, it's predictable behaviour pattern. His entire powerbase is dependent on presenting a bigger threat to the Russian people than HIS leadership.

It's distasteful, its stty, but it's anything but mental. It's because he's NOT nuts, the West can poor in kit and (hopefully very uncomfortably watch), the Ukranians do all the fighting.

The minute he actually DOES present as completely mental, the West's position will shift dramatically...

Right now, his propaganda lies and bullst have him trapped in a losing war. But its NOT an irrational path IF you are the head honcho in kleptocracy.

It might be alien to you, but it's entirely predictable behaviour pattern. And if it's a pattern or follows (his) logic, it's not "bat st".

Theres nothing sane, logical or sage about waging a war where countless totally innocent civilians are killed, whilst simultaneously you feed conscripts (who you’ve gone live on state TV to say will not be used in combat) in their hundreds of thousands into a military meat grinder with st kit and corrupt and useless leadership that ensures almost half are dead, injured or mentally scarred for life within a month.

It is utter, deplorable, despicable insanity.

If that is not the work of a deluded lunatic, nothing is.

He's not a deluded lunatic. He simply isn't bothered by any impact on other people.

[anonymous-user]

stongle said:

Are you being serious, or do you watch too much TikTok?

Putin hasn't gone "full bat-st", nor tontomental. He's playing exactly as an authoritarian (corrupt) leadership needs to. It's anything but mental, it's predictable behaviour pattern. His entire powerbase is dependent on presenting a bigger threat to the Russian people than HIS leadership.

It's distasteful, its stty, but it's anything but mental. It's because he's NOT nuts, the West can poor in kit and (hopefully very uncomfortably watch), the Ukranians do all the fighting.

The minute he actually DOES present as completely mental, the West's position will shift dramatically...

Right now, his propaganda lies and bullst have him trapped in a losing war. But its NOT an irrational path IF you are the head honcho in kleptocracy.

It might be alien to you, but it's entirely predictable behaviour pattern. And if it's a pattern or follows (his) logic, it's not "bat st".

I disagree completely.

It was batst mental for someone in his position to start this war.

From what i have noted, the bloke isolated himself for 2 years and lost his mind.

The difference between his utterings when on and off script are huge.

[EddieSteadyGo]

HM-2 said:

Digga said:

heres nothing sane, logical or sage about waging a war where...

Putin is unlikely to be directly responsible for tactical and operational decision making, but at a strategic level everything that's been playing out is entirely in keeping with both Russian doctrine and the ideological concepts that have motivated the invasion.

That is my view too. Provided someone is prepared to break the moral boundaries that most reasonable people abide by, his behavior becomes completely logical.

[Digga]

EddieSteadyGo said:

HM-2 said:

Digga said:

heres nothing sane, logical or sage about waging a war where...

Putin is unlikely to be directly responsible for tactical and operational decision making, but at a strategic level everything that's been playing out is entirely in keeping with both Russian doctrine and the ideological concepts that have motivated the invasion.

That is my view too. Provided someone is prepared to break the moral boundaries that most reasonable people abide by, his behavior becomes completely logical.

That’s tantamount to pointing out that psychopath serial killers are not necessarily thick. They are still bds.

[_Al_]

EddieSteadyGo said:

London424 said:

And Ukraine will just keep hitting their supply lines. They’ll bombard them with longer range artillery and loitering drones at night. Their special forces will keep hitting them. All the while they keep getting better and better kit while Russia are digging out even worse crap than they started with.

As per the U.K. military update Russia have lost a third of their entire ground invasion force. In what 10 weeks?!

The problem with that argument, much as I would like it be true, is if you look at the most of the occupied territory, the supply lines are relevantly short as they are fairly close to Russia/Crimea. So I don't think you will see the same kind of situation as happened when they were going for Kyiv.

And the Russians suffered their biggest losses in the first stages of the war when they were advancing. Defending is likely to consume fewer resources than attacking. And I don't think it is beyond possibility that the MOD figures are slightly exaggerated. Plus a proportion of those depleted resources will be injured and so in theory could still be active again after a period of recovery. And Russia still have the option to upgrade from a "Special Military Operation" to a war, which enables a large increase in resources. All this means that I don't think you can usefully extrapolate the MOD figures to get an insight into the Russia capability in 10 weeks time.

You’re right that the supply lines are shorter, but remember UA has been hitting targets in Russia.. Also that they now have new tools like Switchblade to precision target things on that shorter supply line.

Considering my bold highlight in your post above - the link I posted a few pages back says that their attrition rate has been remarkably stable (and high) throughout the campaign. That’s the sort of thing I’m talking about. They’ve been attacking the whole time, and been taking a beating the whole time.

People keep talking about how many troops Russia *might* call up, but forget that those troops *are* up against almost the entire remaining population of Ukraine.

Russia is weakening badly by any objective measure and while Ukraine are also taking losses they’re still getting stronger on several key measures like quality of kit.

I don’t doubt (what I believe to be) your basic premise - that it’s not a dominant victory for Ukraine - but I also don’t believe they’re stalemated. I think things will go Ukraine’s way eventually unless the US etc pull the plug on their weapons and materials supply. They’ll pay dearly for their right to exist, but I think they’ll secure it.

Edited by _Al_ on Sunday 15th May 20:25

[BikeBikeBIke]

hidetheelephants said:

In terms of the capacity to maim phosphorus is pretty nasty but any incendiary device isn't going to shower the recipient in rose petals. I confess to being a bit baffled what the russians expect to achieve with the incendiary, steelworks aren't terribly flammable other than the coke pile. At best it will burn holes in the roof. I guess they're just chucking everything in including the kitchen sink.

I reckon Russia are short of useful ammunition so they're firing what they have lying around at Azov for the home audience.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Sunday 15th May 20:37

[EddieSteadyGo]

Digga said:

That’s tantamount to pointing out that psychopath serial killers are not necessarily thick. They are still bds.

Just as an aside, plenty of research to show if someone is a psychopath they have a personality disorder, not a mental disorder i.e. they are not insane. And psychopaths are usually extremely logical.

[BikeBikeBIke]

_Al_ said:

You’re right that the supply lines are shorter, but remember UA has been hitting targets in Russia.. Also that they now have new tools like Switchblade to precision target things on that shorter supply line.

Considering my bold highlight in your post above - the link I posted a few pages back says that their attrition rate has been remarkably stable (and high) throughout the campaign. That’s the sort of thing I’m talking about. They’ve been attacking the whole time, and been taking a beating the whole time.

People keep talking about how many troops Russia *might* call up, but forget that those troops *are* up against almost the entire remaining population of Ukraine.

Russia is weakening badly by any objective measure and while Ukraine are also taking losses they’re still getting stronger on several key measures like quality of kit.

I don’t doubt (what I believe to be) your basic premise - that it’s not a dominant victory for Ukraine - but I also don’t believe they’re stalemated. I think things will go Ukraine’s way eventually unless the US etc pull the plug on their weapons and materials supply. They’ll pay dearly for their right to exist, but I think they’ll secure it.

Edited by _Al_ on Sunday 15th May 20:25

Without doubt Russia have a manpower problem. The best they can do is a partial mobilization to maintain the stalemate or make gradual progress.

They also have an equipment problem.

Unfortunately, although its hard to imagine Russia breaking through, it's easy to imagine them wallowing around in Ukraine for literally years.

And while Ukraine is fully mobilized with their ports blockaded Ukraine's economy is far worse hit that Russia's.

Talking about willing or losing has little meaning. Ukraine have won, because there will always be a free country called Ukraine now. It's a disaster for Russia. But that doesn't mean Ukraine have anything to smile about or that they'll get their land back.

We'll have to wait and see.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Sunday 15th May 20:41

[768]

BikeBikeBIke said:

hidetheelephants said:

In terms of the capacity to maim phosphorus is pretty nasty but any incendiary device isn't going to shower the recipient in rose petals. I confess to being a bit baffled what the russians expect to achieve with the incendiary, steelworks aren't terribly flammable other than the coke pile. At best it will burn holes in the roof. I guess they're just chucking everything in including the kitchen sink.

I reckon they've run out of useful ammunition so they're firing what they have lying around for the home audience.

I wondered if it might cause problems for the air supply?

[BikeBikeBIke]

768 said:

I wondered if it might cause problems for the air supply?

Good thought, if that's happening.

[HM-2]

Digga said:

That’s tantamount to pointing out that psychopath serial killers are not necessarily thick. They are still bds.

No, it's not. "Rationality" has a very specific meaning- just because you don't understand the reasoning or logic behind decisions doesn't render them irrational. As I've already said, they seem ridiculous to a Western observer (and are evidently somewhere between fundamentally flawed and completely inappropriate for the combat circumstances) but they're not a manifestation of madness- and treating them as such fails to understand their underlying doctrine.

[myvision]

Are we due another Russian general soon?
When was the last one?